All posts made by BlueTemplar in Bitcointalk.org's Wall Observer thread
1.
Post 3509830 (copy this link) (by BlueTemplar) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.21h):
It's extremely possible there could be no big crash this time around. All the people selling now expecting a 3rd crash so they can buy back in will be fucked. Most of the last crashes involved some bad news of sorts. Things tend to happen twice in bitcoin, but not a third time. Don't be surprised if all we get are mini crashes on the way up. It's a good way to take coins from the weak hands who don't know what they have.
What bad news happened before 9 April 2013 ?
2.
Post 3510069 (copy this link) (by BlueTemplar) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.21h):
It's extremely possible there could be no big crash this time around. All the people selling now expecting a 3rd crash so they can buy back in will be fucked. Most of the last crashes involved some bad news of sorts. Things tend to happen twice in bitcoin, but not a third time. Don't be surprised if all we get are mini crashes on the way up. It's a good way to take coins from the weak hands who don't know what they have.
What bad news happened before 9 April 2013 ?
a fair question. well gox getting dosd made a lot of people panic, and if enough people panic a crash becomes unstoppable.
Hmm, indeed this is what might have happened...
http://venturebeat.com/2013/04/21/mt-gox-ddos/The question is :
Considering it already happened twice, isn't it symptomatic of a bubble that would incite some people to do just this kind of attack? Note that this time we don't have a single dominant exchange anymore, so what if this happens again, but only to one of them? (Other people might get rich on spreads, methinks...)
3.
Post 3510243 (copy this link) (by BlueTemplar) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.21h):
link or it didn't happen!
I can't access
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD anymore, is that just me?
4.
Post 3510531 (copy this link) (by BlueTemplar) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.21h):
5.
Post 3513461 (copy this link) (by BlueTemplar) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.21h):
Bitcoin value doubled in 3 months
19 times in a row
damn
but what about that $32 to $2 thing? that was more than 3 months.
that was some sad times...
Sad for who, probably the best time ever to gobble up some cheap coins.
For those that have never seen a bubble before and bought at the top thinking it would keep doubling once a week...
6.
Post 3513531 (copy this link) (by BlueTemplar) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.21h):
For those that have never seen a bubble before and bought at the top thinking it would keep doubling once a week...
So... morons?
A fool and his money...
Do you realize you just called half of the people on this thread fools and morons?
7.
Post 3519747 (copy this link) (by BlueTemplar) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.21h):
$342
We still haven't had a Bitcoin-style full-on correction/dump from this 6-day rally and I'm getting a wee bit nervous.
+60% in 6 and a half days! That's a x295 102 488 300 yearly compound interest!!!
8.
Post 3522671 (copy this link) (by BlueTemplar) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.21h):
On the weekly chart we are just now starting to see the kind of growth that characterized mid to late March. (33% now vs 35%-46% then)
If things play out the same way now that they did then, we've got about 3 weeks left before some major exchange melts down and causes a panic.
In March, we went +55% in 4 days from 47$ to 73$ :
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zczsg2013-03-18zeg2013-03-21ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzpIn the last 4 days, we went +59% from 169€ to 269€.
Wow, you may be right, maybe this bubble WON'T pop! (right now) I should have checked previous bitcoin increases more thoroughly...
Well, I guess in that case I'll just diversify into gold and silver with those "useless" € I just got trying to sell at the top...
9.
Post 3523016 (copy this link) (by BlueTemplar) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.21h):
You don't have to sell before the "big crash", you can sell in the first rebound. This is the big secret that keeps your stress levels low. Sure you lose some %, but this is a very risk free tactic vs. try to catch the top.
Yeah, but that rebound could be so fast you would miss it (you know : at work, or asleep...), or it could be barely higher than before the increase, like this april...
Why is it so hard to buy back in with a loss?
Because I guess that's would just be admitting defeat. And if I sold at 15$ or lower after buying at 28$ in 2011 I think I would have been so burned that I wouldn't have bought back in at 4$.
So I guess I'm going to stop trying to trade and just hold (and sell once in a while)... Investing additional funds at this point is too risky in the big picture, since with these price increases I now already have 90%+ of my assets in bitcoins...
10.
Post 3525507 (copy this link) (by BlueTemplar) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.21h):
Log charts are useful for illustrating the spread or adoption of a technology but not specific instances of that technology. Bitcoin is just an instance of something larger. And even if it wasn't, a log chart would be appropriate for spread or adoption, not price in fiat.
But isn't price in fiat pretty much proportional to bitcoin adoption? (assuming fiat value is constant)
11.
Post 3525610 (copy this link) (by BlueTemplar) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.21h):
Log charts are useful for illustrating the spread or adoption of a technology but not specific instances of that technology. Bitcoin is just an instance of something larger. And even if it wasn't, a log chart would be appropriate for spread or adoption, not price in fiat.
But isn't price in fiat pretty much proportional to bitcoin adoption? (assuming fiat value is constant)
Fix your brain.
Here's a compelling argument :
http://www.x-btc.com/1/post/2013/11/bitcoin-is-not-surging-going-ballistic-or-going-on-an-astronomical-tear.htmlWhat's yours?
12.
Post 3525768 (copy this link) (by BlueTemplar) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.21h):
Honestly I'll be concerned if the current growth rate on the weekly chart continues for more than another week without some consolidation. In April we had two > 30% weeks followed by a 45% week before the crash.
Current week is +35% with one day left to go.
What charts are you looking at? The actual growth is almost double that!
13.
Post 3525790 (copy this link) (by BlueTemplar) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.21h):
Bitcoiners suffer from extreme confirmation bias and the charts they concoct reflect this.
No, I'm talking about this :
The reason why this makes sense is that new and groundbreaking technologies are not linear, they are S-curves.
Here's a chart of Facebook's users :
*exponential chart*
As you can see its not linear, its exponential. Growth starts out small, maybe stays linear for a while but at some point a critical mass is reached and adoption propagates like a chain reaction with each new user causing more new users to adopt. Later when saturation is nearing the curve slows down and starts to level off (you can just see that starting to happen at the end of this chart).
Bitcoin is following a similar adoption curve, the only difference is that the price is also affected by other factors like greed, fear, news, and the economy. This adds volatility to the curve and even creates bubbles within the curve but the overall trend stays the same - an exponential curve (with bumps) that will at some point level off.
14.
Post 3525814 (copy this link) (by BlueTemplar) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.21h):
15.
Post 3525914 (copy this link) (by BlueTemplar) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.21h):
Oh and some wild musings about how high bitcoin could go...
Monetary supply is about 12 T$.
Max bitcoins in existence : 21 M BTC.
If bitcoin ever becomes pervasive like the Internet :
BTC could reach 12T/21M=~600 000 $ (2013 $) give or take an order of magnitude!
Sadly I think we won't have an Internet by the time bitcoin could reach it's full potential, so it's value will effectively end up as 0. (but so will the $, and 0/0=undefined!)
16.
Post 3526138 (copy this link) (by BlueTemplar) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.21h):
17.
Post 3526194 (copy this link) (by BlueTemplar) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.21h):
And where does 281.88 come from?
18.
Post 3526331 (copy this link) (by BlueTemplar) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.21h):
BTC could reach 12T/21M=~600 000 $ (2013 $) give or take an order of magnitude!
Now that's a really precise forecast…
Point being : if bitcoin gets time to develop it's true potential, then everyone buying now, or even if price is multiplied by ten 6 months from now - is still an early adopter.
19.
Post 3526385 (copy this link) (by BlueTemplar) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.21h):
Hey! Bitcoinity! Very funny!
Ok, so I usually have MtGox and Bitstamp on my first two tabs when suddenly I see this:
Too bad it was only a 502 server error
Yeah, I had the same shock!
Funny how everything seems to have corrected a little bit... except MTGoxEUR!
20.
Post 3526427 (copy this link) (by BlueTemplar) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.21h):
MTGoxEUR _still_ on 269.74€ All Time High...
21.
Post 3526456 (copy this link) (by BlueTemplar) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.21h):
We did have several pretty bullish news...
I bet people that had the bots ready to arbitrage between the various exchanges are REALLY cashing in now!
22.
Post 3526590 (copy this link) (by BlueTemplar) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.21h):
This looks a lot like a pump and dump.
told ya
Well, we'll only know for sure in a few weeks...
...
...
I can't keep staring at charts for several weeks goddamn it!!
23.
Post 3527514 (copy this link) (by BlueTemplar) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.21h):
Ok, looks like I won't get to sleep tonight.
24.
Post 3527771 (copy this link) (by BlueTemplar) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.21h):
Wow, did you notice that if only 1M$ was sold at bitstamp, the price would crash to 250?
25.
Post 3528073 (copy this link) (by BlueTemplar) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.21h):
CHAAAAARGE!!!
26.
Post 3532944 (copy this link) (by BlueTemplar) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.22h):
No, this is exactly bitcoin : talking in absolute numbers, or using linear scales is just not appropriate.
27.
Post 3532956 (copy this link) (by BlueTemplar) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.22h):
And we're on a rollercoaster again... Wheee!
28.
Post 3534846 (copy this link) (by BlueTemplar) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.22h):
We had the "Silk Road down" correction... (but I'm with you, it's going too fast)
29.
Post 3535124 (copy this link) (by BlueTemplar) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.22h):
30.
Post 3535351 (copy this link) (by BlueTemplar) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.22h):
Boy, those Chinese sure like a wild ride!
31.
Post 3545106 (copy this link) (by BlueTemplar) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.22h):
dammit guys
ENTERTAIN ME!!
32.
Post 3550309 (copy this link) (by BlueTemplar) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.22h):
33.
Post 3551329 (copy this link) (by BlueTemplar) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.22h):
I tried to cancel old bids and place new bids on Gox, the website doesn't seem to react...
34.
Post 3552334 (copy this link) (by BlueTemplar) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.22h):
Any bet about what will happen when gox execute suddenly all orders? ( 11437 at this moment)
That, except that they're all attached by one-two elastic strings.
35.
Post 3553440 (copy this link) (by BlueTemplar) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.22h):
Bitstamp doesn't offer euro trading. And I just don't want to be exposed to the dollar/euro exchange rate, which is already very volatile.
I really don't get this - You're exposed to BTC/USD which is far more volatile than any USD/EUR rate over the past few years why trade on euro market which is less volatile than the usd market
No, i'm exposed to BTC/EUR... If i trade in BTC/USD i'll eventually have to switch back to euro if i want to cash out to fiat, which means i'll have the initial capital i invested minus or plus the gains/loss i have from the exchange rate USD/EUR and also any profit/loss i might have had from trading BTC as well. So if i had BTC profit that might as well be offset by a low EUR/USD exchange rate at the time i want to cash out to fiat. Twice the risk which i don't really want.
Honestly, all your trading should be about accumulating more coin
If you short and fail, it's better to be left stuck with your own currency, don't you think?
