thanks for the TA but ... party pooper

Regarding the bolded - I’ve seen nobody claim anything like that buddy. Nothing wrong with a bit of HOPIUM & people being happy about a pump though. It’s nice to feel a pulse every now & then

I am feeling more and more confident that the low we seen in December of 2018 was the bottom. Maybe even up to and over 51% now. The next major milestone is when and where we deal with this overall downtrend line from the ATH.

before you start reading. if you think TA is useless, gtfo now because this is going to be painful to read.

if you believe in TA and history repeating itself on the chart, jump in this could be very interesting.


I made a few posts regarding Bitcoin price prediction, with no bragging what so ever, i managed to sell before the collapse, re-bought very close to the last low, thanks to TA ( this line goes to those who say TA is bullshit but didn't gtfo   ) > https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5071613.100

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Ok b.s aside  let us first start with analyzing the big picture of bitcoin, and why do i think that we have either bottomed out or just about to bottom out.

I will be combining a few a technical views, some of which i have mentioned before.

1- 50 Moving Average on the monthly chart.



the chart you looking at is the BLX, it has the longest data you can possibly find, the first candle goes to first of July 2010.

looking at the chart, we can clearly see that the 50 MA was never closed below and price did have a wick going under but not a single monthly close below.

while the current monthly candle have not really touched the MA which is why i think we could possible have make another slightly lower low with a wick that can go to as low as 2000$ but the monthly candle has to close above 2900$ for this 50 moving average to be valid.

2- 200 Moving Average on the weekly chart



almost the same look of the monthly 50 MA, except that on this weekly chart we did actually touch the 200MA and bounce right of it, you can also see that the 200 weekly moving average has never had a single weekly close below it, price did have a wick but not a close, and this suggest that if we were going to go down again to touch the monthly 50 moving on the monthly then price will come up fast enough before a weekly close.

3- The 2800-3100 is a major support/resistance level.



this price level has acted as both support and resistance level for about 105 days during last year. for 105 days it was the only critical line on site level that traders had their buys and sells around, it held the almost 35% drop in Aug 2017 and price surged from there.

 many traders have been setting their long positions at around the area, which justifies the recent pump, as many traders think that we bottomed out and are trying to enter as early as the can.

4- The Stotcastic RSI on the monthly chart



 the Stochastic RSI is at as low as the bottom of 2014 ranging at around 0.24 , while we still need to see a cross to confirm the start of an up trend , and since is is a monthly chart so another 500-1000$ drop from the latest low won't have much of an impact on the monthly layout which indicates an over sold market that is ready to change bullish.


5- The RSI on the monthly chart




The current value of the RSI is 45 while the last bear market had a bottomed out at 44, this only indicates that there is no much room for more dips, and the bottom should be there or just around the corner.


6- The ichimoku cloud on the weekly chart

 

sorry about the dark black ground on this one.

nothing much to say about this, it's clear that every time the red cloud appears, the bear market get's closer to end.


7- The lack of support below this level.



The bulls know for sure this support is a do or die, as we certainly have no sort of support below this until 900-1100$ , with only a minor weak support that has been tested only once, technically that support line is as good as not there, therefore the need for defending this area and to never have a weekly candle close below 2900 is very important for the bulls.

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Now giving the fact that these analysis are based on large time frames, so the results will only confirm in months from now, saying we could have bottomed out does not mean you look at the hourly chart and say why are we dropping , the chart on the small time frame still looks as bearish as hell, so if you are a day trader then you should be following the current trend to place your positions, but if you are a long term trader then you should be only using any potential dip to buy so you can level up a good average price of your holdings.

it makes 0 sense to sell now if you are planning to hold for so long, i expect the price to test the 5k region and then make another leg down, this can be a good change to short and then to re enter the sub 3k as most likely every bottom has to be tested twice before making a V shape to the upside.

also keep in mind that the end of bearish trend does not mean the start of a bull run, it usually means a few months of consolidation between the bottom and the last high of the last leg down , which in our case if we were to assume 3k to be the bottom then the siedways market will be between 6k and 3k which can last from a few months to a whole a year before breaking the 6k and going on a bull run that will mark new ATHs.

long story short, buy around 3k , sell around 6k  until once of those levels are broken then you act accordingly. if you don't know how to trade,and you failed to sell at 5.7k then don't sell now, the room to the upside now is more than that to the downside.

This is not a financial advice, trade safe. follow the trend.

There is nothing wrong with trading BTC, and even employing margin (which is more risky than merely HODLing and accumulating), but if you start to make claims that diss on BTC HODLers and those who don't sell their BTC and merely buy BTC on dips or dollar cost average into BTC, then you have gone a step too far.  

Wow wow wow what do we have here .... Nostra-freaking-damus everybody saw your prediction but nobody sold because we're not selling on the way down dude. Go look for some weak hands in other threads...  

We can call the bear line irrelevant after we cross it, and even then it should provide support

 Guy's don't FOMO , you are likely going to get burned, if you haven't bought the breakout at 3700$ then it could be a bit too late now.

Yes.  I already noticed your continued attempts to establish your self-importance with every post, which would include both your dismissiveness of points, such as the ones that I made, that conveniently you don't like and your ongoing denigrating and attempts at self-aggrandizing repetition of the term "moon boys."   

Again presumptive of you, especially if you have not read.  Furthermore, if you post your dumbass TA on a public thread, then you should expect that some people might respond to your ideas (or lack thereof).

I feel like this is a weird form of insult, as everyone on here I am going by just pure speculation and have no secret sauce.

Kind of out of line there... it's not Thursday.

But man, come Thursday, let that douchebag have it!

Not touching anything!

it's been a while since i posted my trading set up, here is the current plan and view.

So your saying you didnt buy the dip?    So sorry.

In my opinion, there is a big chance for a pump if the current attempt to reverse the trend succeeds.

Since the start of Bitcoin market,we had only 2 major bull trends (nearly 2 years long) and 2 bear markets (nearly a year long)

In this chart I am interested in how does each bull trend starts, assuming ofcourse that we are now in the 3rd bull move which suppose to last about 2 years , we are nearly a year in now.

by drawing the Fib from the bottom to the top of each bull market, we get some interesting facts.

1-A correction all the way down below that 0.786 (blue)  > Done
2-A rejection from the 0.618 > Skipped
3-A rejection from the 0.382 (14k) > Done
4-A retest of the 0.618  at around 7700$ > still confirming.... Done
5-A retest of the 0.5 level (9900$)  > unknown but must happen this month  Done
6-A steady move to ATL ATH in 5 months > unknown