All posts made by fcmatt in Bitcointalk.org's Wall Observer thread



1. Post 5263996 (copy this link) (by fcmatt) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.14h):

What i find amusing about all of this is that just a month ago people would literally kill to buy at "this" price.
Now that we are at "this" price people do not want to buy. No one has any clue where the bottom will be and everyone is afraid to make the first move.
This will end poorly until the we hit the price of what the whales want to buy at. They probably have firm targets in mind. And after seeing how low it can
go on mtgox they will allow it to hit 300 area before buying.



2. Post 5264046 (copy this link) (by fcmatt) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.14h):

Quote from: icey on February 20, 2014, 06:08:50 PM
Double digits incoming.  Shocked

in euro it already did! ;-)



3. Post 5264420 (copy this link) (by fcmatt) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.14h):

Quote from: oda.krell on February 20, 2014, 06:12:21 PM
What i find amusing about all of this is that just a month ago people would literally kill to buy at "this" price.
Now that we are at "this" price people do not want to buy. No one has any clue where the bottom will be and everyone is afraid to make the first move.
This will end poorly until the we hit the price of what the whales want to buy at. They probably have firm targets in mind. And after seeing how low it can
go on mtgox they will allow it to hit 300 area before buying.

You overestimate the power of those mystical whales. They move the market individually more than smaller traders, sure, but even they risk losing a lot if they go completely against the stream.

Go back to June/July 2013, and look at how the reversal unfolded back then.

a) the trend reversed in a very clear "organic" way, with buying pressure simply building up to the point where a reversal was quite clear by around July 8.

b) then came a number of big volume moves that might well have been whales. but, see a) above, they reacted to a (feebly, perhaps) established reversal.

c) then came a majestic dump, quite possibly a misguided whale seeing a chance to exit the game, or maybe an attempt to keep price down... didn't matter. It only threw us back maybe a week, then the upwards trend continued. Slow, very slow, for a long time, until the real rally started, but that's a different matter.

tl;dr Whales matter, but not as much as some people seem to think, and even whales can get burned if they act dumb.

i think the signal for an uptrend will be whales but I do see your points. thanks for responding.



4. Post 5264556 (copy this link) (by fcmatt) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.14h):

Quote from: cbutters on February 20, 2014, 06:26:49 PM
If you are getting scared and feeling doubt.... just go to  the 2 year logarithmic chart on bitcoin wisdom and STARE......... It's incredible how closely the april runup and decline matches this oct-feb runup and decline.





5. Post 5264640 (copy this link) (by fcmatt) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.14h):

Quote from: cbutters on February 20, 2014, 06:34:55 PM
If you are getting scared and feeling doubt.... just go to  the 2 year logarithmic chart on bitcoin wisdom and STARE......... It's incredible how closely the april runup and decline matches this oct-feb runup and decline.




Thanks for the visual.... but I didn't really mean the Mt. Gox chart at this point..... Everyone needs to remember that Mt. Gox is not bitcoin, just a bitcoin exchange.

how about bitstamp then? It is just a week behind is all in following gox to the basement ;-)




6. Post 5264709 (copy this link) (by fcmatt) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.14h):

Quote from: ShroomsKit on February 20, 2014, 06:38:36 PM
finally, stamp is following a bit

btc was overvalued anyway


Source?

how about stamp's two day price chart.. just took a downward direction..



7. Post 5265462 (copy this link) (by fcmatt) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.14h):

looks like mtgox will hold at 109ish... bottom is in. I dont see 5000 more btc being panic sold and people are sending gox fiat.



8. Post 5265731 (copy this link) (by fcmatt) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.14h):

Quote from: ManInIron on February 20, 2014, 07:24:57 PM
$580 is bitstamp bottom?

that has a lot of room to fall and it will. sad to say.



9. Post 5266874 (copy this link) (by fcmatt) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.14h):

Quote from: bucktotal on February 20, 2014, 08:16:01 PM
by the time virtex is done the maintenance the panic will be over

FML

litecoin on cavirtex!

lol

sweet



10. Post 5282862 (copy this link) (by fcmatt) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.15h):

Today on #bitcoin

gmaxwell: wumpus: yea, I understand they had timed automatic reissues... Sad this was also something I didn't know prior to monday before last and is one of the other reasons my "they couldn't have lost much!" position softened to "I have no freeking clue."
alpha125: gmaxwell: where did you find out abotu the automatic reissues?
gmaxwell: alpha125: from mtgox staff and magicaltux ... I had assumed previously that any reissues were manual via customer support but apparently it was just timed.
gmaxwell: you'll also note that they've kept increasing their fees and then even mad paying fees mandatory.
gmaxwell: This suggested to me that they totally misunderstood their problems. (and— I reported that I believed this months ago too)
gmaxwell: e.g. they noticed lots of txn getting stuck, they didn't understand it was because they were producing invalid txn (even though it was reported to them) and so they thought it was just 'full blocks'
gmaxwell: and they increased their fees from 0.0001 to 0.0005 — which was enough to may more than virtually every txn— and then later to 0.001 which is basically astronomic. And then they made it mandatory.
gmaxwell: of course their stalled txn had nothing to do with fees.

Edit: Just to clarify, only quoted relevant parts (maybe I should have inserted "[...]" where applicable). Full text here: http://pastebin.com/DaSph9uT



11. Post 5340718 (copy this link) (by fcmatt) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.18h):

Quote from: MatTheCat on February 24, 2014, 04:58:26 PM
Anyone following my $530 bottom call has made money, even if the numbers didn't exactly match. Anyone waiting for $500 coins is still waiting. Fact.

Last time we spoke without you having to read my ignored comments in someone elses quote, you were telling me that $820 was damn cheap Bitcoins.

Yeah...they are still waiting for $500 Bitcoin.....but for how much longer?

And then how much longer until $500 Bitcoin is considered bag holder prices?


1800BTC until 580 on Stamp and also a 1000BTC ask wall@580 on BTC-E.
It´s getting cheaper every day  Wink

The 10K whale tricked trader bots into slamming 3 million USD of liquidity into his wall at $779. This price level seems to represent an absolute market lid for the time being.

779?



12. Post 5340789 (copy this link) (by fcmatt) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.18h):

Quote from: San1ty on February 24, 2014, 05:03:32 PM

Can't find anything on that... Bullshit?

it just just fud from an article where mark says "that is private information" when asked by a reporter.



13. Post 5351278 (copy this link) (by fcmatt) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.18h):

Watching this train wreck is becoming pretty funny. I thought most bitcoin holders were past this type of rampant selling on rumors. Guess not! It will be even funnier 6 months down the road when people lament not buying cheap coins.



14. Post 5652163 (copy this link) (by fcmatt) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.26h):

Quote from: BubbaGumpShrimpinBoatCapn on March 12, 2014, 02:10:58 AM
Is now one of those moments i will be kicking myself later if i dont buy?

I doubt it. Seems like big buys are moving the market up. not very organic growth. the buyers probably want to see if they can get the lemmings to join in then hammer it down come friday/sat. rinse repeat.



15. Post 5652657 (copy this link) (by fcmatt) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.26h):

Quote from: billyjoeallen on March 12, 2014, 02:46:24 AM
Is now one of those moments i will be kicking myself later if i dont buy?

I doubt it. Seems like big buys are moving the market up. not very organic growth. the buyers probably want to see if they can get the lemmings to join in then hammer it down come friday/sat. rinse repeat.

So it's either a low volume melt-up or big buys that aren't organic. What would qualify as a bullish signal to you?


I would like to see a steady erosion of asks over a longer period of time that brings the price up. Not 4K in sudden buys elevating the price for a few days only for a steady erosion of sells that push it back down to where it started. By this Sat i am going to guess that the price will back below 630ish and we will be in the same spot we were in 12 hours ago. People, at this time, have no reason to think a new all time high is close at hand and only a steady progressive change of sentiment will push us higher. I dont see major whale buyers getting in enmasse until sentiment is ripe. The big buys we saw today are going to end up being short term trades. Not long term holds.



16. Post 5652767 (copy this link) (by fcmatt) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.26h):

Quote from: adamstgBit on March 12, 2014, 03:11:36 AM
Is now one of those moments i will be kicking myself later if i dont buy?

I doubt it. Seems like big buys are moving the market up. not very organic growth. the buyers probably want to see if they can get the lemmings to join in then hammer it down come friday/sat. rinse repeat.

So it's either a low volume melt-up or big buys that aren't organic. What would qualify as a bullish signal to you?

In Feb the new market participants absorbed the bulk of profit taking / panic selling, now they are fighting over random 200BTC scraps that come along while trying not to push price to high just yet, because cheep coin accumulation.

Why would someone buy 2K+ of bitcoin in one bite at this time unless they wanted to influence this tiny market? Surely they could spend 2-3 minutes a day buying 100-200 btc increments and save a nice percentage because their average cost could possibly be under 625-630?



17. Post 5769315 (copy this link) (by fcmatt) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.27h):

Quote from: koryu on March 18, 2014, 06:45:21 PM
was 100% in ltc and sold at 0.03185 back to 40%ltc 60%btc.

how about you? how much ltc to keep?



I kept 30% ltc as I am unclear if ltc will pop past it's last high.
I feel it will go up but I think the chinese learned their lesson a bit with bitcoin. Meaning they are more careful now. I will be shocked to see litecoin at 40+ and if I do I will sell wherever I can at that point.



18. Post 5769517 (copy this link) (by fcmatt) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.27h):

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 18, 2014, 07:00:29 PM
When China started to buy BTC the price have risen hard so what should we expect for LTC?

Litecoin over 50$ soon.

Define, soon. week?  two weeks?  month?  and will it parallel BTC or break from BTC.. .that makes a difference, no?

I am thinking that if LTC goes to $50 within the next month or two and breaks somewhat with BTC to anywhere in the .07 to .1 territory, then I will sell my LTC holdings at that point... unless there is some breaking news that changes the fundamentals of LTC as compared with BTC in some kind of way.   

right on man. there is a crap ton of LTC out there waiting to be sold since people missed the bus last time and did the math.
what goes up must come down.



19. Post 5840015 (copy this link) (by fcmatt) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.28h):

Quote from: wetroof on March 22, 2014, 02:34:46 PM
objectively we are in a b*** market.

Maybe we are. Feels like it and i am sure a chartist can show that if they wish. But when i can sell 10 btc for more then 5000 dollars that is amazing. Well to those who were around for a few years at least. I stop selling when the price is below 640. That is hilarious to me cause i used to sell 100 btc at 10 bucks each.

I took enough cash out of the system over the last few months so i am content to hold, wait, and accumulate. So a bear market? I guess it depends on your situation. Bitcoin could go to zero and i would be content. Or to 1000 and i am ok with that.



20. Post 5840468 (copy this link) (by fcmatt) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.28h):

Quote from: sir faps on March 22, 2014, 03:13:46 PM
objectively we are in a b*** market.

To everyone who read this as "objectively we are in a BEAR market", that is not what wetroof is saying. This statement is a joke. Literally. b*** could be bull or it could be bear. Interesting to notice how everyone who has replied to this post this far has read it as bear though...

Nice catch. I thought that saying bear in this thread was taboo and that was the joke.

Plus with recent events it is hard to argue this is a bull market.



21. Post 5940543 (copy this link) (by fcmatt) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.29h):

Quote from: seleme on March 28, 2014, 12:01:31 AM
It's simple. Buy Bitcoin now with fiat, buy alts with that BTC and get 1000% fiat profits in few weeks/months Cheesy

Er.. What alts? Only like 100 to choose from now days...



22. Post 5940907 (copy this link) (by fcmatt) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.29h):

Quote from: fonzie on March 28, 2014, 12:30:26 AM
Could you all please provide an epic bulltrap to 520-550$?

Thanks

Wont happen until they get their next paycheck plus deposit time...
Or their parents give them their allowance.



23. Post 6003010 (copy this link) (by fcmatt) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.31h):

lower lows and lower highs...

and people are rushing to buy? what is the rush to speculate on a falling virtual commodity? Has patience been totally tossed out of the window due to people using this forum or ones like it every 15 minutes?



24. Post 6045176 (copy this link) (by fcmatt) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.32h):

Come on guys! 400 per bitcoin is amazing!

Hm. Well. As a seller making a profit that is. Fresh buyers not so much.

Down we go. People will get excited at double digits to low 100 range. Not 400.



25. Post 6072330 (copy this link) (by fcmatt) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.33h):

Lower highs and lower lows. Downtrend confirmed repeatedly. No reason to think it will change. < 400 incoming.
I am holding what I have left though. Sold enough to be content for this year. When things change for the upside it will be dramatic.




26. Post 6072522 (copy this link) (by fcmatt) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.33h):

Quote from: jonoiv on April 04, 2014, 05:53:53 PM


combined with that happening on a friday.. historically that means breaking downwards.



27. Post 6557848 (copy this link) (by fcmatt) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.42h):

I went into hibernate mode with my bitcoins. I don't even bother look at the price that much. Once every few weeks I reckon. I will consider getting excited once the price is over 1000 again or it goes to 0 and I can finally remove the client from my PC.

See you in a month or two. I am just mining litecoins right now. Not bother selling/trading them either.



28. Post 6821289 (copy this link) (by fcmatt) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.45h):

must be getting close to a bottom of some sort if chart buddy can have 3 posts in a row....

interest is waning!!!



29. Post 7039621 (copy this link) (by fcmatt) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.48h):

Now it just needs to double in price from here so I can sell some for a hefty profit. Go bitcoin!



30. Post 10153042 (copy this link) (by fcmatt) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.48h):

A little bit of reality is finally coming back to bitcoin.

Sold all my litecoins and bitcoins months ago. There was no point in treating them like an investment when the whole premise of them increasing in value was the greater fool theory in action. Just because business adopted bitcoin as a form of payment did not mean they would increase in value. The opposite could just as easily be true.

I am completely out. No mining, no holding, no nothing. And I see no reason to buy back in right now. The money is more useful in other ventures.

But I have to admit. Bitcoin puts on a hell of a show!



31. Post 10158110 (copy this link) (by fcmatt) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.49h):

I am a buyer at $3 USD a bitcoin. I feel comfortable with that. I would buy a 100.



32. Post 10158158 (copy this link) (by fcmatt) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.49h):

Quote from: bitcoinvest on January 14, 2015, 11:46:30 PM
I am a buyer at $3 USD a bitcoin. I feel comfortable with that. I would buy a 100.

i still remember those days... and mining with ATI Cards 2 BTC / Day !!!!



I sold my last coins to buy a chanel purse and wallet for my girl friend. That has been paying serious dividends in bed, let me tell you.



33. Post 10165013 (copy this link) (by fcmatt) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.49h):

Quote from: chopstick on January 15, 2015, 03:22:13 PM
Price going back up to 280ish in the next week or so.

Everyone who got in sub - 200, bravo!

I don't think so. As soon as traders get a nice chance to prof it they will dump and cause a swing down. This really reminds me of the past. We all wanted to make a fast buck on these rallies and the price just kept going down.