All posts made by kiko in Bitcointalk.org's Wall Observer thread
1.
Post 1905550 (copy this link) (by kiko) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.53h):
Computers cost money, even hijacked ones.
Anyone got a ballpark estimate how much these guys are spending to run these attacks?
2.
Post 1905858 (copy this link) (by kiko) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.53h):
$200. Damn that's cheap. You could definitely profit from an 18% round trip move that costs $200. Gox really needs to fix this shit. Just ban anyone who traded in the last half hour. gone. sorry.
3.
Post 1931054 (copy this link) (by kiko) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
^What's with the rally in Litecoin? Did Paypall make a statement about Litecoin that I don't know about?
4.
Post 1932411 (copy this link) (by kiko) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
obvious tree shake is obvious.
5.
Post 1944396 (copy this link) (by kiko) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
What's with bitcoinity showing a low of 50.01? Anyone else seeing that?
6.
Post 1944597 (copy this link) (by kiko) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
The market's so thin now, a 1k buy just had like 15% slippage, all the way back to 144. Insane.
7.
Post 1944831 (copy this link) (by kiko) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
I expect we'll form a nice big wedge now between 140 and 120, lasting until tomorrow.
8.
Post 1945299 (copy this link) (by kiko) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
In case any of you want some audio to go with your chart gazing. I just linked a new BBC bitcoin documentary over in the press section. It's quite entertaining. All the usual suspects interviewed.
9.
Post 2198951 (copy this link) (by kiko) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.59h):
I don't mind chart buddy, but it should be made to skip an interval or two if there is no substantial change in the book.
10.
Post 2245349 (copy this link) (by kiko) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.00h):
-Bitstamp Orderbook is looking better every hour
Unfortunately I do not see that. Bid sum at Bitstamp was $955k a few days ago. Now its $1.05M. That's a tiny improvement. And it is still a joke compared with the $20M sitting on Gox's order book.
Total bid sum may not have increased as much, but lots of fiat was used to eat into the huge ask wall. Also bid sum from $100+ has increased by about 50% the past couple of days.
Agreed, moonshot bids for $20 coins don't really count. I keep meaning to create an index that divides each bid/ask by the % distance from the current MMR. I think it would be much more insightful. I just can't square the maths to adjust for the fact that bids only differ by 100% but asks can be many 1000% higher. Anyone know how to properly adjust for that?
11.
Post 2245690 (copy this link) (by kiko) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.00h):
ATTENTION SHOPPERS. ATTENTION SHOPPERS.
We are having a 5% discount sale on Bitcoins all this week.
Head on over to the BitStamp aisle where we have half a million dollars for the first customers in line.
Thank you and have a nice day.
12.
Post 2246794 (copy this link) (by kiko) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.00h):
Agreed, moonshot bids for $20 coins don't really count. I keep meaning to create an index that divides each bid/ask by the % distance from the current MMR. I think it would be much more insightful. I just can't square the maths to adjust for the fact that bids only differ by 100% but asks can be many 1000% higher. Anyone know how to properly adjust for that?
Simple, just base it on the logarithm of the price.
Thanks, but I think I've got it now. It's simpler than that.
One re-bases the order book so MMR is 1. lets call it $125. A $100 dollar bid at $10 dollars gets weighted by 0.08. An equally weighted ask of $100 would be priced at $1562 (the price at which current MMR represents only 8%.)
So who do I need to beg for historical daily snapshots of the full depth API?
13.
Post 2247478 (copy this link) (by kiko) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.00h):
As this is our own FUD-spreading thread, let me quote you the email that the Blockchain.info operator got from Twilio, regarding a possible action against Bitcoin in China:
Hi Ben,
We got further information from our carrier confirming that business such as bitcoin is not a proper financial tool in China and the Authority may treat bitcoin as an illegal business. Unfortunately the China Telecom Authority has requested that all bit-coin traffic to China be blocked.
As the provider of the phone number, Twilio is responsible for assuring the carriers that no more traffic related to bitcoin will be sent to China. Therefore, I have removed your international SMS permission to China. Please do not turn this on or try sending SMS messages to mobile numbers in China. Doing so will very likely lead to immediate account suspension.
Again I'm sorry for the convenience. Please let me know if you have any additional questions.
Thanks,
Twilio Customer Support
Source:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=40264.msg2243603#msg2243603That's pretty big news. I don't like the sound of it one bit. The media could dine out on that.
14.
Post 2249346 (copy this link) (by kiko) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.00h):
That's pretty big news. I don't like the sound of it one bit. The media could dine out on that.
Under 10% of people in China own a car. 40% of families don't own a fridge. The average Chinese person has the same buying power an 9 year old american boy. The people in China with money, will buy/hold/sell BTC as they please. Mass adoption in China was overblown, buying a fridge ranks slightly higher then BTC.
You're missing the point. That's 1,200,000,000 cars that now won't be bought with bitcoin, because the people with money in China (the one's who own businesses) will do as they are told and not accept bitcoin. They would rather keep their businesses.
15.
Post 2249527 (copy this link) (by kiko) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.00h):
90% don't own a car. But they're going to use money holding BTC? There is 0 domestic economy in China. Which is their problem.
Have you been under a rock for the last decade? China makes around half a million cars a month, all for domestic consumption.
16.
Post 2249678 (copy this link) (by kiko) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.00h):
Bulls on Bitstamp are shifting a gear up.
olmost there.. time to buy up what's left of cheap coins..
If that is arbitrage buying, that's probably why the gox price stalled, the coins are being dumped there simultaneously (for a profit).
17.
Post 2249756 (copy this link) (by kiko) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.00h):
People hoarding BTC will kill it.
Objection! Statement not found in evidence.
18.
Post 2249819 (copy this link) (by kiko) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.00h):
^^Wow, I think we all just got trolled. I know what to say to get bitcoiners going now.
19.
Post 2254928 (copy this link) (by kiko) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.00h):
Agreed, moonshot bids for $20 coins don't really count. I keep meaning to create an index that divides each bid/ask by the % distance from the current MMR. I think it would be much more insightful. I just can't square the maths to adjust for the fact that bids only differ by 100% but asks can be many 1000% higher. Anyone know how to properly adjust for that?
Simple, just base it on the logarithm of the price.
Thanks, but I think I've got it now. It's simpler than that.
One re-bases the order book so MMR is 1. lets call it $125. A $100 dollar bid at $10 dollars gets weighted by 0.08. An equally weighted ask of $100 would be priced at $1562 (the price at which current MMR represents only 8%.)
So who do I need to beg for historical daily snapshots of the full depth API?
I'll pitch in half the 200btm if you share it with me.
Bingo. Thanks. I almost missed that reply. I'll get in touch with the dude after some tests on the old data.
As an aside; I can't help but feel I'm re-inventing the wheel here though. Brokers have had Level 2 data for years, why don't we have common TA indicators for depth like we do for Volume and Price. Am I missing something? Is this kind of thing common in CFA textbooks?
20.
Post 2255186 (copy this link) (by kiko) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.00h):
I am seeing a very interesting technique being used on bitstamp right now:
Instead of placing a huge ask wall, someone is setting down ~40BTC orders spaced 0.01 apart. But only a few at once, and filling them up as they get eaten.
This means that the upward trend does not get broken, it just slows down to a crawl. And the person gets to sell all of his BTC at high prices, because the confidence of the buyers is unshaken.
Pretty slick operator, if you ask me...
If you could see the pattern with your bare eyes, it's hardly subtle. HFTs would eat this kind of obvious pattern for breakfast in real markets, the price would run constantly just out of reach of all but the highest bid, knowing they had a big fish on the line. Just my 0.02
21.
Post 2255416 (copy this link) (by kiko) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.00h):
I am seeing a very interesting technique being used on bitstamp right now:
Instead of placing a huge ask wall, someone is setting down ~40BTC orders spaced 0.01 apart. But only a few at once, and filling them up as they get eaten.
This means that the upward trend does not get broken, it just slows down to a crawl. And the person gets to sell all of his BTC at high prices, because the confidence of the buyers is unshaken.
Pretty slick operator, if you ask me...
You have to ask yourself why someone's so desperate to sell off a large amount of Bitcoin.
CoinBase and BitPay are the ETF's of the bitcoin world. Merchants throw them a lot of bitcoin and they need to hedge that risk and pay back out in USD.