Could You please write Your texts in a fashion, that it produces ASCII art? That would be more fun. Thanks
Thoughtful posts
Thank you for your thoughtful and reasoned posts.
Just some thoughts of mine..
I personally think that the price this year nor next is the most important thing.
You mention hundreds of millions pouring into the ecosystem last year, I am aware of 250 million that has (publically) been invested in 2014 so far, during a period the price has been heading down. This alone will not raise the price, however as the seed money comes to fruition, then the added publicity will bring added social proof and with that
may come more acceptance and trust and understanding of Bitcoin. Along with more useful Bitcoin ecosystems, popping up in more and more places around the world (ie new markets) Also you mention the growth from 09-13, I get what you are saying, but I would counter that even now at this point Bitcoin is a tiny tiny market, and there is still a lot of room for growth, without the need for a major war or financial collapse (in fact a financial collapse
may not do BTC anygood whatsoever) when you take into account the growing regulatory framework which, like it or hate it (regulation) the fact is we are getting closer to some clarity, and markets like clarity, and markets hate uncertainty, so the more uncertainty that is removed from the market (which it will be one way or another and in not too long a time period i.e next 6 months to a year) then that will be one less worry for particpants in the market, at an insituional level, and at a "retail level" This is by no means insignificant, infact it is highly significant, and is one thing that has not existed in any form for Bitcoin to date, and will , IF the legislation is not too burdensome be a good thing for Bitcoin, not because it needs regulation per se, but because of the elimination of some of the regulatory uncertainty. If the legislation is too burdensome then it could do real damage to Bitcoin and the price of Bitcoin, but blockchain technology, and cryptocurrency will no doubt continue to grow and work its way around and continue to evolve, and force legislation to evolve with it too. However, if the legislation is not to much (which we will find out soon) and at least some useful tools, end services and economies do continue to be developed and rolled out, both new ones in the coming years, and the fruits of the labour and treasure from the latest rounds of seed money as they come online (and their publicity campaigns) are rolled out, then this is going to start to bring Bitcoin more into the public consciousness, and give it more social proof, and give it a chance at reaching ubiquity. These things are not certainties by any means, however, it is down to ones personal point of view on how much more or less likely these things are to happen now, then they were in 2009-2013, in my view Bitcoin has a MUCH stonger chance of reaching "legality" and a clear legal standing for investors to know what they are dealing with, and if the next year goes off without any major hitch, and by that I mean regulatory hitch then I see this in terms of price , as the most bullish thing that has happend to Bitcoin in its history. (dont worry crypto crowd, there are other cryptos to acheive other goals) This will give BTC the chance over the next few years to grow and become even stronger. This could lead to a positive feedback loop, whereby more clarity, more certainty less fear, more interest, more investment, more buyers, more services, network grows, and gains higher marketcap, network become stronger the stonger it becomes, the more trusted it is , the more trust the more it grows, and the stonger it gets, the bigger its marketcap has the chance to grow to... In regards to the money needed to flow into Bitcoin, should it succeed, of course the more orders of magnitude it needs to grow, the harder this becomes from a purely mathmatical point of view when viewed in solo, but when viewed in conjunction with real world events, I think that at least another order of magnitude of price growth is not out of the question, in the next year or two, and if it can do that, they who knows how strong and how big the market could become? I do not, and neither do you. SO BARRING massive protocol failure, barring massive regulatory shitstorm not putting a spanner in the works, then considering BTC current headstart and network, it has a CHANCE to continue to grow the next few years imo. If this IS the case can quite EASILY see another $50 billion become invested into Bitcoin (ie buying BTC) over the next few years, why not? this is not an obscure reference to metcalfe, but an educated
guess , call it a bet if you like, that with regulatory certainty, SOME of the fiat that is currently tied up in gold, stocks, commodities, savings, pensions, speculation, will flow into Bitcoin, bearing in mind that really 50 billion dollars is not a large sum in reality at all in the grand scheme of things over the next few years, we are talking a tiny percentage of these markets shifting over the next few years... plus a chunk of a growing ecosystem. This is IF it all goes well. So if you do the maths, lets call it 14.5 million Bitcoin in circulation in 2015/16 and lets say we get $50 Billion flow in over next two years , what is that $55 billion market cap which works out at around $3800 a coin, which is a full order of magnitude from where we are today,( and not too far over your higher estiate if I recall) that is if it goes well.. note I am not cheering or deluded and I use the word IF. If it does , then I do not see it just dying in two years time... so who knows where it will go. This is all speculation, as is your thoughtful analysis also which I do not disagree with per se, though I freely admit to being a bit more optimistic than you it seems. I would also not be overly surprised if $100 billion flowed into the market or even more, in the case of a perfect storm, and I do not mean a war, or a collapse, though I do mean to say actually that over the next 5-10 years if the market cap reaches 500 Billion, a trillion, which again is NOT too out of the realms of possibility should Bitcoin gain traction and stick around for the next half a decade and say gold become a little less in vouge, and it really does become accepted and trusted by the investment community and then the wider population, then when taking into account the devaluing dollar and increasing money supply, and future world events, then $500 billion, could become a reality then by 2019 with approx 16-17 million BTC in circualtion , we could end up with a price of around $30,000. Now if you then take into account some of the scenarios you take into account (ie some sort of shitstorm happening) in the next 5 years (which is not that unlikely) then who knows what could happen. What I am describing is a perfect storm no doubt, but it the possibility for this happening started in 2013/2014 and will continue with any LUCK over the next 6 months to a year, as regulatory clarity comes to light, and the current and next round of seed money come into fruition. FAR from a certainty, but more "certain" for want of a better word , or rather more likely this year than it was last year, or the year before. I agree the most important thing to do is to get involved, and not to just sit on the sidelines hoping the honey badger come and makes all ones lazy dreams come true.
TL/DR The next 6 months, year really is critical to BTC reaching these price levels and havingthe chance of becoming a real force.
No doubt there are a multitude of things that could "throw a spanner in the works" that I will not go into now as I should be asleep and I need to get up in a few hours and my post is a million words long already.
If Bitcoin gains traction, via the coming clarity in he next year, then it has a shot of becoming a force and staying around for another 5 years, and then MAYBE, just MAYBE another five years after that.
All speculation of course, which is what we are all doing. With speculation, if you are investing, then we need to know we are investing in a high risk venture, (though less risk now imo than 2 years ago) with high risk, coes high rewards if it works out.
Regardless, the cryptocurrency cat is out of the bag, and I do not see it ever going back in again, it is out there now, in the public consciousness and cryptocurrency and blockchain tech has a real shot of levelling the playing field and becoming a world and society changing paradigm shifting force that will I think have positive implicaitons for the ever evolving and growing society, and for the world which is going to change so so much over the next quarter of a century.
Of course, Bitcoin the currency could get shot down in a ball of flames by the powers that be, of that I am not arguing, it could face many things which do not allow it to gain that traction, that it will without a doubt need to make the next order of magnitude of growth (in terms of price and adoption) and the model could all change no doubt, a unknown unknown could pop up and burst any hope it has. However, in my humble opinion, it has more of a chance this year and next of gaining that exact traction that it needs , than it has had at any point in its life span so far, and I for one, am investing my time, effort, thought, and money on that exact chance, that exact risk.. not my life savings, and I am not 100% crypto lifestyle or 100% involved in cryptocurrency as a way of earning my crust yet... yet, but I am gearing towards that should the next year go well.
We are all along for the ride, and I do not see it as black and white personally, so very few things in life are black and white... this is in the grey, and has the chance of a wildcard, positive and negative.
My two satoshi , for what they are worth.
Eitherway enjoy the ride- and stay safe (ie invest you time and money in a sensible manner)
Good luck to you, to us all, and if luck does not cut it... then mitigate your risks, and also get your hands dirty.
This is no time for acting serious, this is a time for seriously acting.
(I am a naturally optimistic, but at the same time practical kind of a guy, and also money is not that important to me or my life, only as much as it needs to be)
(ps I a half asleep ha ha I should be asleep if my spelling and grammar is shyte, or I rambled around the farm then opps sorry my bad)
Or they just don't talk about it 
Respect, "former computer science student"
