All posts made by giszmo in Bitcointalk.org's Wall Observer thread
1.
Post 1859998 (copy this link) (by giszmo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.53h):
looking at this chart I wonder how many people would have an incentive to borrow money at high interest just to paint some volume for us TA experts. I mean seriously, if I wanted to cash out 200k bitcoins, I would easily pay 30% p.a. interest for three weeks to borrow $10M. Given the only risk is that MtGox will not give me back my money I guess it would even be easy to convince some wealthy friend who is not at all into Bitcoin.
2.
Post 1878005 (copy this link) (by giszmo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.53h):
But combined with the bid sum being back on track I think those are strong indicators for buying pressure.
(Although we have a healthier ask sum this time so hopefully the rise will be more gradual)
Please have a look at where the bid sum actually resides. Half of it is below $60/Ƀ, $2M are even below $25/Ƀ. I call manipulators all those that move millions but park them at market – 50%.
I would love to see in addition to the above chart a chart with the weighted average bid and the weighted average ask and a chart of that spread which I would call manipulators activity chart.
3.
Post 1878190 (copy this link) (by giszmo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.53h):
4.
Post 1880736 (copy this link) (by giszmo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.53h):
But combined with the bid sum being back on track I think those are strong indicators for buying pressure.
(Although we have a healthier ask sum this time so hopefully the rise will be more gradual)
Please have a look at where the bid sum actually resides. Half of it is below $60/Ƀ, $2M are even below $25/Ƀ. I call manipulators all those that move millions but park them at market – 50%.
I would love to see in addition to the above chart a chart with the weighted average bid and the weighted average ask and a chart of that spread which I would call manipulators activity chart.
What you describe sounds mostly like it would display the spread. How do you suggest to weight bids/asks, by order volume or by something else?
I have experimented quite a bit with orders weighted by the "distance" to the current price. Did not work out well so far but I am open for suggestions.
What is the problem? You have total_bid_sum / total_ask_sum. If you take
for(Bid bid:bids) {
weighted_bid_price+=bid.price_per_BTC * bid.volume_USD;
}
weighted_bid_price/=total_bid_sum;
for(Ask ask:asks) {
weighted_ask_price+=ask.price_per_BTC * ask.volume_USD;
}
weighted_ask_price/=total_ask_sum_USD;
Ok, so total_ask_sum is the problem, cause somebody wanting millions for his bitcoin is a problem, right? So you have to take the last trade:
weighted_ask_price/=total_ask_sum_BTC*last_trade;
Hmm, not quite right neither …
Edit:
for(Bid bid:bids) {
weighted_bid_price+=bid.price_per_BTC * bid.volume_USD;
}
weighted_bid_price/=total_bid_sum;
for(Ask ask:asks) {
weighted_ask_price+=ask.price_per_BTC * ask.volume_BTC;
}
weighted_ask_price/=total_ask_sum;
Would that work?
5.
Post 1881557 (copy this link) (by giszmo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.53h):
FTFY
Hilarious
I saw the pic and was so irritated by the same error that I was about to fix it, too
6.
Post 1881647 (copy this link) (by giszmo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.53h):
Does anyone here worry about the concentration of hash power? 6 of the last 7 blocks have been found by BTC Guild. This is beginning to worry me.
No. They were found by miners of that pool, not the pool itself. If the pool misbehaves (the blocks contain only transactions with high fees or the blocks contain no transactions at all etc.) these miners will switch within hours.
I wonder though why the first ASIC miners are not solo mining. Damn you can afford to do it with a block found on average within hours.
7.
Post 1886172 (copy this link) (by giszmo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.53h):
No. They were found by miners of that pool, not the pool itself. If the pool misbehaves (the blocks contain only transactions with high fees or the blocks contain no transactions at all etc.) these miners will switch within hours.
I wonder though why the first ASIC miners are not solo mining. Damn you can afford to do it with a block found on average within hours.
Some of them seem to have a psychological objection to variance. Or maybe the theory is that as more asics come online, the pools will regain their importance so some loyalty is in order.
My reasoning behind pool or p2p mining as opposed to solo had my ASIC turned up months ago and had difficulty been low enough would have been: The odds of mining a block reduces at the same rate as difficulty increases and if this is rapid the cost of belonging to a pool pays for a share of the gains when difficulty is lower and odds are higher. It's a bigger gamble to go solo because if you're unlucky in the first low-difficulty stage you've missed out on the gain you would had by having yours plugged in before the others who drove the difficulty up.
Crap. If you solo mine, you can also be lucky and earn more than with a pool. It's just more variance and being more lucky now or less is absolutely the same now and later in the game but later your odds of finding 2 blocks per day might be half of today.
8.
Post 1886305 (copy this link) (by giszmo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.53h):
[...]
Hmm, not quite right neither …
[/s]
Edit:
for(Bid bid:bids) {
weighted_bid_price+=bid.price_per_BTC * bid.volume_USD;
}
weighted_bid_price/=total_bid_sum;
for(Ask ask:asks) {
weighted_ask_price+=ask.price_per_BTC * ask.volume_BTC;
}
weighted_ask_price/=total_ask_sum;
Would that work?
What if... I would offer 1BTC for 1 Billion Dollars?
You would have to wait 5 years for your order to get filled
Ok, seriously, there has to be some nice measure. If the average bid/ask doesn't work, take the mean bid/ask:
for(Bid bid:bids) {
bidSum += bid.volumeUSD;
if (bidSum >= 0.5 * totalBidSum) {
meanBidPrice = bid.pricePerBTC;
break;
}
}
for(Ask ask:asks) {
askSum += ask.volumeBTC;
if (askSum >= 0.5 * totalAskSum) {
meanAskPrice = ask.pricePerBTC;
break;
}
}
meanSpreak = meanAskPrice – meanBidPrice;
9.
Post 1886391 (copy this link) (by giszmo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.53h):
With your graceful permission, I will repost here my
recent findings.
Summary: Bitcoin could act as the world's reserve currency in 2013 and after, as gold did in 1913 and prior. This would give
BTC1 = $300,000 in present dollars. Please comment on the analysis, not the outcome.
Oh, ok so you say if Ƀ surpasses the $300,000 mark in 2013 $$, we should sell? Thanks for the heads up
I kind of appreciate your argument but don't agree on the outcome as there will always be a speculative aspect to it. 7.11 billion people? Hey, I have some extra money and will speculate on the next 8 billion also wanting ɃɃ, so the value should be $600,000.
10.
Post 1887215 (copy this link) (by giszmo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.53h):
With your graceful permission, I will repost here my
recent findings.
Summary: Bitcoin could act as the world's reserve currency in 2013 and after, as gold did in 1913 and prior. This would give
BTC1 = $300,000 in present dollars. Please comment on the analysis, not the outcome.
Oh, ok so you say if Ƀ surpasses the $300,000 mark in 2013 $$, we should sell? Thanks for the heads up
I kind of appreciate your argument but don't agree on the outcome as there will always be a speculative aspect to it. 7.11 billion people? Hey, I have some extra money and will speculate on the next 8 billion also wanting ɃɃ, so the value should be $600,000.
Oh no please, that's why I said
read the analysis first. Adding 8 billion people will likely
not change the outcome.
Ok I read it again assuming I must have skipped that part but I don't see it. Where in your analysis is the argument that the value of Bitcoin would not go up if it was the one world currency for twice as many people than before?
11.
Post 1942440 (copy this link) (by giszmo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
extremly low volume. Its mean that crash is just around the corner.
So when the price goes up to $165-170 can I point out how wrong you were?
You can point out whatever in this thread but nobody would read it as the thread is tooooooo fast.
I want additional buttons for users here like the ignore button. Market expert, Manipulator and Clueless idiot. These buttons and the resulting feedback could be hidden outside the speculation subforum.
12.
Post 1961279 (copy this link) (by giszmo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.54h):
Can someone explain to me why many people use millibitcoin instead of actual bitcoin? I saw some people talk about it but I still don't get what makes it 'better'? Isn't it essentially just BTC/1000?
In a few years time we will use μBTC (micro bitcoins) in every day conversations
Ok, TheKoziTwo just said essentially the same thing while I was writing but with a bias more towards the scammy manipulative thing that I don't like, so I post my version anyway:
There are several things at play. First, people very reasonably try to avoid insignificant zeros:
If Bitcoins are worth $34,238,712/Ƀ the average Joe will not care about the last 6 digits and the average trader will not care about the last 4 or 5 digits so they will rather want to talk about $34,239/mɃ or $34.2/μɃ.
At the other end of the scale you don't want to buy your chewing gum for 0.000,032Ƀ but rather see a quote of 32μɃ.
Ok, so that was the convenience part of the story. Unfortunately there are also some people that advocate to use mɃ to make it seam cheaper to buy in. Their reasoning is that people think in full units so they rather buy something that costs $0.12 than something that costs $120 regardless of the quantity they are buying later. I tend to disagree with this approach but know it kind of works. LTC are valued at $4 with a x4 supply that would translate to $16 for Bitcoin. Ok historically $4 and $16 fell in short succession in the bitcoin world but still, the LTC is considered by many as BTC ignoring the fact that there are 4 times more of them, so for the LTC-scammers this trick worked. Well, as I said I still lean towards not using tricks as Bitcoin doesn't need to fool its users.
13.
Post 1992304 (copy this link) (by giszmo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.55h):
Damn! I was just about to go to bed! Grrrrr Bitcoin!
14.
Post 2017223 (copy this link) (by giszmo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.55h):
please rotate 180 around the z axis and make an animated gif. With enough frames you should really see better the 3D structure when it's animated.
Edit: Alternatively add the latest line with a distinct color (white?) so the eye can follow what's happening.
15.
Post 2147720 (copy this link) (by giszmo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.58h):
Mtgox trading engine lag: 37049m 45s
maybe a bug
16.
Post 2271491 (copy this link) (by giszmo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.00h):
WTF??? How do people hold on to using the term "intrinsic value" in the most arbitrary ways???
Because it
cost money *in the past* gold has intrinsic value?
Salt has also a high intrinsic value cause it cost a lot of work in the past?
Your hard labor of the past will give your shiny metal value once those asteroids drop 50 times our gold reserves down to earth per year?
This totally degenerated argument of gold being valuable because of its intrinsic value is just beyond stupid.
If at all, intrinsic value is the value of something once I stop swapping it for other stuff (make tools, eat it, etc.) aka a future value in case nobody wants to trade not a past value that drove people to mine it with hard work. Past appreciation doesn't give value to anything and in this sense I strongly oppose to "bitcoin is backed by electricity" and only jokingly mention that bitcoin is backed by drama cause that's the only aspect it guarantees for the foreseeable future.
17.
Post 2301921 (copy this link) (by giszmo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.01h):
A little bit of random speculation?
everytime we touched this resistance we moved up
This is interesting! Thanks for showing us this indicator.
Bullshit. Here is the graph:
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg90zig12-hourztgSzm1g10zm2g25zxzi1gOBVzvzcvStart playing. For me the OBV does not look bullish at all but maybe it would help to know more about it than just gut feeling about a rising chart.
18.
Post 2324374 (copy this link) (by giszmo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.01h):
all signs are pointing down!
Winter is coming … ewww …
19.
Post 2336424 (copy this link) (by giszmo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.01h):
Wallzilla killed the volume.
I'm really curious as to why there's a wall in many currencies.
Gox has only one market for all currencies. The bids/asks in any given currency are converted to show in all other currencies, with a exchange fee built in. The fee does not go to Gox, since they ironically are not licensed to exchange between various fiat currencies. Instead the fee goes to their bank, which does the actual fiat exchange.
The upshot is that if you place a bid in USD it shows up in Pounds, Euros, Baht, whatever else as well.
Source: MagicalTux in irc a few weeks ago.
This is the most natural thing a multi-currency exchange should do. Of course if they take too high fees, others can do arbitrage for cheaper. Basically if the fee is 1%, an actual $$ wall should be 1% stronger than the auto-arbitrage-€-wall. A "buy 1000Ƀ@$120" would be a "buy 1000Ƀ@$119.8" in all other currencies. If you can exchange $$ for €€ cheaper, you can squeeze your offer in between.
20.
Post 2373519 (copy this link) (by giszmo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.02h):
I would say we can all be very bullish for the next episode:
21.
Post 2375355 (copy this link) (by giszmo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.02h):
Indeed, I've heard you're officially allowed to enter the circle jerk that makes up this thread. You stop following your own analysis and start expecting bitcoin to go up because well, it's bitcoin! I can't wait till I get to 684!
Not really.
Most bears have an old or high number posts account.
There was a thread once where somebody promised quite some reward for the best guess of the bitcoin price by some date. Back then I also did the analysis of how bullishness/bearishness correlates to the post count. It turned out there was a clear correlation between spread and post count. The more posts the more they agreed on a moderately higher price.
Damn. Found it. I post too much:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=138028.msg1472018#msg1472018
22.
Post 2384249 (copy this link) (by giszmo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.02h):
About Bitcoin's value: If somebody shows you a gold/silver/bit coin or a $100 bill and offers you to buy it for half its value, would you buy it?
23.
Post 2384305 (copy this link) (by giszmo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.02h):
If I sell you a soda and you give me a dollar and I don't give you the soda claiming you didn't give me a dollar, what can you do?
If "I sell you a soda for $1 to this address: …" and I don't give you the soda, what can you do?
Sure, you might answer question one with some violence towards me or my store.
With bitcoin you have all the benefits of an on the record transaction like credit card payment combined with full anonymity as long as there are no complaints.
24.
Post 2384330 (copy this link) (by giszmo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.02h):
About Bitcoin's value: If somebody shows you a gold/silver/bit coin or a $100 bill and offers you to buy it for half its value, would you buy it?
Sure. If somebody offers me a $60 BTC, I'll buy it.
So how about the 100 dollars for $50? How about the gold and silver coins? Lets add a bank transfer: If you give me $50, I will send you $100. I will even send them first if you insist.
25.
Post 2384377 (copy this link) (by giszmo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.02h):
About Bitcoin's value: If somebody shows you a gold/silver/bit coin or a $100 bill and offers you to buy it for half its value, would you buy it?
Sure. If somebody offers me a $60 BTC, I'll buy it.
So how about the 100 dollars for $50? How about the gold and silver coins? Lets add a bank transfer: If you give me $50, I will send you $100. I will even send them first if you insist.
What are you trying to prove? Anyone would buy it so that they can sell it 1 second later for instant profit.
yeah good luck. How many stores don't take $100 bills? How often have you been offered a "real gold chain/coin/whatever" for a hell of a bargain? How many people try to cash out on their hacked bank accounts? Let me guess: you were heavily invested in Pirate@40
26.
Post 2384427 (copy this link) (by giszmo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.02h):
About Bitcoin's value: If somebody shows you a gold/silver/bit coin or a $100 bill and offers you to buy it for half its value, would you buy it?
Sure. If somebody offers me a $60 BTC, I'll buy it.
So how about the 100 dollars for $50? How about the gold and silver coins? Lets add a bank transfer: If you give me $50, I will send you $100. I will even send them first if you insist.
What are you trying to prove? Anyone would buy it so that they can sell it 1 second later for instant profit.
yeah good luck. How many stores don't take $100 bills? How often have you been offered a "real gold chain/coin/whatever" for a hell of a bargain? How many people try to cash out on their hacked bank accounts? Let me guess: you were heavily invested in Pirate@40
Nope, at that time I was only a bitcoin user and not speculator and did not care for price as I spent on the same day as buying them. I don't even remember how much were they, only how much I spent on them. Question stands: what are you trying to prove?
among dollar on paper, dollar from a bank account, gold, silver, bitcoin from a random anonymous person, bitcoin is the only thing I can take without having to be afraid to get a fake bill, transfer from a hacked account that will be undone, some metal that is worth nothing.
to be fair, bitcoin taint might be an issue at some point but i hope with zerocoin we will have truly fungible bitcoins.
27.
Post 2403099 (copy this link) (by giszmo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.02h):
My guts feeling is that we will meet $60 again. That is only based on this chart that clearly shows a correlation of traded volume (weekly in currency) and price. I see that there are some exceptions where on a down trend the volume explodes with a decreasing price but the overall trend tells me, $60 would still be high.
That said, I did buy my last bitcoins at $130 as a service to my local community (here in Chile there is not much local community yet) and I don't sell because good news can change the trend in a matter of hours or days, which is faster than I can get my money in and I don't feel comfortable having fiat or money on any exchange waiting for the right time to get stolen or confiscated.
28.
Post 2406006 (copy this link) (by giszmo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.03h):
Patience is a virtue, those Askers have little. Once the price starts declining again, we're going to see a lot more dumping...
There is a guy asking for 1 trilion for his bitcoins so some of the askers do have patience
Asking one trillions USD is as if you asked one trillion Simbabwe dollars for your Bitcoin. Yeah, sure, we might reach this price and many around here hope rather sooner than later but selling your bitcoins for one trillion $$ then would be much more stupid than to sell them now for $100. Patience you are talking about is laziness, not to anticipate the value in the near and far future. I am too lazy to sell now and know too little to do so, either. I think it would be a good idea to sell now but I am too afraid of missing the train.
29.
Post 2406798 (copy this link) (by giszmo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.03h):
shits getting deep.
Some are holding coins in order to spend them later when it's easier and safer and they can buy the normal things they would buy in their everyday life without a second thought, and without having to change back to fiat... yes that doesn't account for the transactions now, but as merchants accept more and infrastructure develops, if the speculation does drive the price up, I am assuming people will want to spend their (now more valuable) coins... obviously this comment also doesn't have much to do with the transaction volume affecting the price on the exchanges now, but on that subject I will also put forward the idea that it may not have much impact on the exchanges, as day to day purchases of coins to spend coins would be inefficient, I will assume that many people already have large stashes of coins they might spend.... finally also bear in mind that some of the philosophy of bitcoin (for some people, and anecdotally a majority) is not to spend spend spend to drive a consumerist economy. As mentioned before, just because the economy is not full of high volume transactions, doesn't mean it's not living and breathing.
Stream of consciousness waffle here so take it or leave it
Do you know what merchants do with payment solution that don't generate any sales?
If you get only a sale / month you wil drop it just because it's more of a hassle to work with it than the outcoming profit.
My fear is this might happen first.
later edit:
As usual people see my point of view as a bitcoin enemy and a non-believer.
For me , bitcoin is just an experiment , quite a funny one. I ended up using bitcoin by necessity and I have no god damn interest in price (besides making fun of bulls or bears).
For me its use is far more interesting.
Dude, stop the Keynesian "
deflationary currency leads to hoarding and hoarding is bad"-crap. People buy things, because they both want and need things. You cannot delay a purchase forever (post-mortem anyone?) so the fact that the underlying currency gains in value isn't going to stop economic traffic
in the least *.
*Although in the beginning people might need to get used to this, but it will be temporary. People will need to get used that merely holding currency isn't voluntarily paying more taxes and that saving can actually be a good thing as opposed to the credit hungry society the west is these days. I don't have any debt, but I can assure you I'm a vast minority ....
Keynesians are like cockroaches
Amen. Why do we have planned obsolescence in about 110% of all stuff you can buy? It's the same spirit. If people only would care about tomorrow a bit more, people would realize how "hoarding" is not bad. If your currency appreciates in value, you will not buy stuff that looses all its value by tonight.
30.
Post 2430755 (copy this link) (by giszmo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.03h):
why would i learn a backward language like that
¿ʇou ʎɥʍ
31.
Post 2475413 (copy this link) (by giszmo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.04h):
If we need them now or any time soon, we sink. That's for sure. Good thing is bitcoin will survive even if they join after all the rest and another valley of tears.
32.
Post 2516337 (copy this link) (by giszmo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.05h):
Meta:
It's time to start a new Wall Observer:
33.
Post 2536752 (copy this link) (by giszmo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.06h):
Today I read some very good news:
Mycelium Wallet, the successor of Bitcoin Spinner is in open beta:
34.
Post 2561688 (copy this link) (by giszmo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.06h):
forbes.com/sites/jonmatonis/2013/06/23/bitcoin-foundation-receives-cease-and-desist-order-from-california/
Bye, BTC Foundation
Let them take some heat for all the others with less legal backing. This might be the test if the foundation is worth the donations they receive. If they opt for claims that delay a decision on the case for years, they will not get my money for years.
35.
Post 2579077 (copy this link) (by giszmo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.06h):
Any good android market watcher apps?
The last one I tried ran so hot and drained the battery in an hour. I think it must have been trying to mine on my phone! ...I just watch preev.com on my phone.
Just don't mix wallets and fishy bitcoin apps. I wouldn't go as far as to suggest to have a dedicated phone for your self-compiled and reviewed android wallet yet but this day will come soon. If some minor developer of angry birds can sneak in a 2kB snippet that empties 10,000,000 wallets at a snap, this evil guy will do it. I mean even if he gets caught, he might have a higher cause to do so and the money will never find its way back to the owners.
A bitcoin hater could even send the money to /dev/null
Edit: Wonder what he would get prosecuted for in such a case
36.
Post 2580788 (copy this link) (by giszmo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.06h):
Im going to pretend yesterday never happened, because it made absolutely no sense that bids and asks filled in quickly enough to hold off constant 4k-8k market orders in both directions..
CONSPIRACY!
Whale humping. Some iceberg order bot running amok. Whatever. Time will tell.
37.
Post 2590148 (copy this link) (by giszmo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.07h):
Pressure's building, soon its going to go Pop!
like "pop to $180/Ƀ"?
38.
Post 2596547 (copy this link) (by giszmo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.07h):
While German news that Bitcoin can be cashed out after one year of holding (instead of paying 25% of taxes) is a bullish news for me, it could also mean that people that were thinking about sneaking out their early adopter coins now openly sell them via gox which would be bearish. Make of it what you want, for me it's definitely mid term bullish.
39.
Post 2605361 (copy this link) (by giszmo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.07h):
So someone wants to unload huge coinage and is propping up buy side to pick off anything offered above his fake walls? Since gox has usd delays he can bleed it out slowly over two weeks. I've been scratching my head at this market for days now and can only come up with this.
You have a point here. Eyes often glued on clarkmoody, that strategy makes sense, previous support at 100 was removed just before passing it. Lets see how the walls at 95 act.
Those fake buy walls are actually a huge risk for the wall owner. He thinks he's just propping up the price for his smaller sells, but if another whale wants to cash out, he can easily sell into them and the wall owner will be stuck with 3K extra coins that he can't unload.
And here we see the down side of having versatile language. If there was only one way of stating this fact, a computer would be able to filter it and I could mark it as "got it" and not have to read it about once per page in this and so many other threads in the speculation forum.
40.
Post 2640587 (copy this link) (by giszmo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.08h):
Seriously, all you've been doing is talking this down, people like you are not exactly helping anything for the BTC cause, just posting about how smug you are about the price drop..
Yeah all I've done in 2 years is trying to talk the twitch.tv casters into Bitcoin, accepting it in all my businesses and freelancing, talking to everyone and anyone about it, invested in it, convinced some co-workers to tip their toes in it, tipped bitbills (now worth thousands) to my local restaurants...
But you know, if I think that the price got carried away and we need to go down, I'm somehow bad for the "cause".
What have YOU done?
Yep. If all were permabullish no matter what, it wouldn't help the cause at all. It would only lead to some noobs getting a blody nosy.
41.
Post 2658621 (copy this link) (by giszmo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.08h):
Argentine here.
I'm gonna be painfully honest, but I've seen the "btc saviour of the 3rd world" used a lot and though I'd love nothing more than to agree with it, I've sadly come to the realization it is completely false.
Yes, at first BTC sounds ideal to countries like ours with devaluating currencies and hyperinflating economies, but the awful truth is there is no easy way for us to get BTC and no way to get it at market price. But even before that, we cannot get USD. We even got a black market for that, USD is expensive. If you get your USD as an Argentinian, you'll soon find out there is no way for you to inject it into one of the exchanges, they all require you to link a US or EU/Sepa bank, or a us payment system (dwolla,etc) or maybe use some retail moneypacks (which you guessed.. don't exist here). International bank wire from Arg have prohibitive costs.
Another sad truth is the fact we Argentinian's (and lots of other 3rd world countries) rely heavily solely on Paypal and CC's to buy internationally. We all know that's not happening for BTC, at least not on a regular basis, but truth be told, the BTC I was able to acquire at market price or closest to it I got them through Paypal, thanks to people who trusted me.
If we go through all this, and our btc investments do well, good luck getting those dollars back on the Argentine system. If you're a long bull like myself, that shouldn't matter for now at least..
Even if you disregard everything cost and acquisition related, another harsh truth is there's nothing I can do here in Argentina with my BTC other than use it as a (volatile) store of value. Again, sadly, over the last year I've also realized that bitcoin has placed all it's energies in building rich financial systems and infrastructure (very much like the ones we try to replace and prone to the same heavy abuse), all the while ignoring the development of a real economy and everyday commerce tools.
It's easy for big fish in the US or EU to buy huge loads of btc, and manipulate the market.
It's hard for small 3rd world guys to do 800 pesos = 90 usd = 1 btc, with fees all along and market markup.
The M-Pesa news sounds like a great step in the right direction, I'll take that.
At the moment though, and it hurts to say, btc is still almost exclusively a financial platform, a very speculative one at that. Not nearly ready to go helping the 3rd world.
Come on, don't whine. make the best of it. I live in Chile and it's already hard to get bitcoins here. 5% markup is a good deal but nobody (really almost nobody) here is dealing in bitcoins. But in Argentine you must be ready to help people out that come there and need pesos. Be flexible, be responsive at localbitcoins.com and the foreigners travelling to Argentine will be happy to make a good deal with their bitcoins. As mentioned before, work for bitcoin. If they are so horribly overpriced, don't buy them but mine (well, sorry if that's some months too late now) them, work for them or when you buy them, be the market maker. You will get MtGox rate even in Argentine if you are the market maker.
Even people in Iran manage to get bitcoins not despite the hassle they have getting dollars but thanks to the borderless nature of Bitcoin.
Mohammad Rafigh is a musician and producer and he is quite happy with what he can earn thanks to bitcoin.
42.
Post 2665386 (copy this link) (by giszmo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.09h):
@Trolls: I have an ignore button and I will not hesitate to use it
@Troll-feeders: I have an ignore button and if you keep bringing bullshit from trolls out of the ignored posts into my stream, I will use it. i would prefer to have a checkbox "ignore replies to trolls" though.
It's all my perception and of course really crazy events aren't included in this scenario, but even with a ban in some countrys it's value won't be zero though.
I agree. Bitcoin is resilient to law. It is not resilient from technology.
Any of the largest governments, and even some of the large banks, if they wanted Bitcoin gone, could 51% it. They could 90% it. We are a mote. No mistaking it, we can go to zero.
I am optimistic, I think this will not happen, but I also recognize that it might.
I'm not so sure that would work. After a 51% we would essentially have two chains. An accidental 51% is complicated because everyone has to choose sides or be left out. Here they would assume control of their chain, but no one would want to catch up to that fork. We will all remain in our new btc-2 chain, and ignore the gov' controlled one.
At least that's how I understand it would go, but I'm no expert. Any blockchain guru out there can confirm?
Yeah, an attack would be easy for some random smallish bank. In fact there is little we can do to find out if it's already happening. Any evil party investing in ASIC makes it less attractive for good players to invest in it, as presumably enough people protect the net already. An attacker's block would not be distinguishable from a good node's block. The attacker could soak up all mining profits and leave the rest with just stale blocks until they all give up. At this point the attacker could arbitrarily mess with the block chain and block random transactions. One day all that have an "e" as third letter, the other day all with even fees. Good luck "picking a chain".
The problem I see is that any miner who is profitable, will be more profitable with more equipment so I think it is inevitable that some day some miner will just accidentally have 60% of the hashing power, unless people people begin to understand "mining" as a service and maybe start calling it "securing".
Are you mining? Are you securing? The latter would not imply profits and only not for profit securing of the network will keep the consolidation of the mining industry under control.
This accidentally successful 60% miner could now play around and check if people notice if just causes 10% stale blocks with his competition. As this would be not for free for him, neither, he would loose 8% to stale blocks, too, but end up doing 2% more profit (than the others who loose 10%, and that's all that counts in mining) at the cost of the others who will now be more likely to give up mining. Slippery slope is slippery. Better call it "securing".
43.
Post 2668915 (copy this link) (by giszmo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.09h):
i had over 100 trillion dollars delivered to my door today, no joke!
it's so sick! these bills sell for 7-40€ now! I want one to show how fiat turns worthless and now for this stupid fact they gain in value!
Damn, the most worthless bill in the world is getting expensive because everybody wants to have one of these! Noooooo! Please stop buying these to brag with your wealth and leave them to people that want to make an actual point with them!
44.
Post 2669246 (copy this link) (by giszmo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.09h):
find it for less than 5€ please. Or better for less than 2.500CLP.
Maybe you can make lot of profit here:
https://www.bitmit.net/en/q/?q=zimbabwe
45.
Post 2678881 (copy this link) (by giszmo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.09h):
46.
Post 2687697 (copy this link) (by giszmo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.09h):
This
Kipochi as Bitcoin <-> M-PESA exchange in Kenya
is actually the best positive news for Bitcoin I've heard in a long time and something that could actually make Bitcoin the currency it dreams of being. I think the potential of this, is being greatly underestimated by some. M-PESA is already doing something like 30% of GDP. The addition of Bitcoin could push this as high as 50% or more, as people move away from sources required for things like Western Union. All speculation but if this catches, it could spread like wildfire to other countries. This is actually news worthy and worth keeping a close eye on.
I would agree if kipochi wouldn't look soooo cheap. They have more typos than sentences on their barely professional page and no updates in a while, so I want them to proof themselves first. Their mpesa partner is not affiliated to mpesa aka some guy who's using his private mpesa account to manually funnel transactions?
I call this vaporware and would take bets that they don't process 1000 transactions within the next 3 months or prior to having serious issues. Total noobs trying to do finance at best. Maybe just some pump and dump.
47.
Post 2702070 (copy this link) (by giszmo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.09h):
Nice jump
Just panic buying or any news involved?
You don't need news. If all are just waiting for the bottom and then start panic buying, a price move $66 – $86 is news.
Another interesting indicator for me is how people post here on the forum. When I saw 20 of the threads I posted in being active yesterday I felt something was in the bush and decided that's bullish. If people are interested in Bitcoin, new money will flock in. How interested are they? Well, new people aint:
http://www.google.com/trends/explore?q=bitcoin#q=bitcoin&date=today%203-m&cmpt=q
48.
Post 2702581 (copy this link) (by giszmo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.09h):
My quote is out of context. I said I am bullish short term for the first time since the last bubble popped. I only doubt that this current increase is driven by outside people. Many of my indicators turned bullish these days. For the first time since 3 months I'm getting buy requests on localbitcoins.
49.
Post 2711562 (copy this link) (by giszmo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.10h):
Even with MtGox having lost half its share which they didn't, this does not look bullish yet. We are not back at $100.
50.
Post 2716113 (copy this link) (by giszmo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.10h):
Guys, I need to lace my shoes, could someone hold this for me...
looool
i dont get it
well, if you help him, you'll be left holding the...
I'm laughing hard now.
oh, lol...
51.
Post 2718766 (copy this link) (by giszmo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.10h):
So what do you guys think is going to happen? I asked on tradingview 6 hours ago and everybody was absolutely convinced that we were going to 75-88.
bullish now?
for the first time ever i try to speculate rather than to just cost-average buying bitcoin. my buy order is at 83.something but it's no quantity you would easily find
So according to Murphy's law, we will never fall below 83 again or if we do, go to 0.
52.
Post 2742720 (copy this link) (by giszmo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.11h):
Why do you keep saying XBT when almost everyone uses BTC?
XBT, BTC, Ƀ, these are all the same thing and you should understand them. The one that gets used most, will win in every day life. Some argue that XBT will win as the rule for non-governmental money is X… like in XAG and XAU.
My fav is Ƀ as it's easily typed once you know the code ctrl-u + 243. BTC is good, too. XBT it will be if the others insist in it. Just be easy with whatever and please don't insist in your choice being the best. Time will tell.
53.
Post 2764850 (copy this link) (by giszmo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.11h):
It's strange to hear bitlisten to tinkling away without seeing a single dollar amount on any bubble.
uhm you mean the one with the troyan loader?
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=256430
54.
Post 2830551 (copy this link) (by giszmo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.12h):
localbitcoins seems to follow gox for pricing, that's a way to pull off the bitstamp arb.
at localbitcoins you can set your own prices. I just today set mine to MtGox+0% and I buy at MtGox-10%. Could as well pick another exchange with different fees pegged to it.
55.
Post 2835958 (copy this link) (by giszmo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.12h):
MtGox has created a perpetuum mobile to give us infinite mtgoxUSD!
Well, many people ask me for the value of bitcoin. I then explain it may either go to zero or to infinity depending on whether USD or BTC collapses first.
What an irony that now $MtGox show signs of collaps
56.
Post 2920643 (copy this link) (by giszmo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.13h):
I love this pic! Kids are getting excited about $MtGox loosing against $US?
57.
Post 2922102 (copy this link) (by giszmo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.13h):
I'm gonna laugh so hard when Gox comes up with faster transfers and everybody screwed themselves over by selling on a cheaper exchange.
LOL!
imagine
well, we are here to find out. If it was certain, $MtGox was worth zero, there wouldn't just be a difference of 10%. Bets against MtGox currently stand at 9:10. That's not so bad. Because I see the situation worse, I actually bought for 103 on MtGox. For $107 one day later I might have rather taken the risk and waited some more for problems to sort out. Sell all your coins on Gox. No risk no fun
58.
Post 2936950 (copy this link) (by giszmo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.13h):
Edit: Oops, just got back from the ballpark (Jays beat Bsox in extra innings), had a few beers and posted the quote without a comment (facepalm).
Or you had the same issue I had before:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=273273.0
59.
Post 2967643 (copy this link) (by giszmo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.13h):
If we see a huge Bitcoin sell-off and MtGox$ reaching parity with $US shortly before MtGox announcing the problems to be resolved, we can assume some insider trading. Same is true if the spread suddenly goes to infinity prior to some bad official news.
60.
Post 2975985 (copy this link) (by giszmo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.13h):
Can someone explain to me the situation at gox.
If I try to withdraw my dollars from there to a UK bank, will it not happen at all? Or take two weeks?
Let us know. I bought at $104 for $10 above other exchanges to get my money out cause I didn't feel like trying as under normal circumstances I had transactions taking 3 weeks. Last thing I read I guess here on this thread was somebody waiting a month and not getting anything.
61.
Post 3015879 (copy this link) (by giszmo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.14h):
splish splash here comes moby-dick
62.
Post 3016472 (copy this link) (by giszmo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.14h):
What just happened?
Someone heard some good news before we did? At least i hope that's the case.
Probably good gox news that's not public yet....
If it's Gox news I would rather guess it's bad news.
63.
Post 3022048 (copy this link) (by giszmo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.14h):
rallying because WW3 will require heavy money printing
http://leowandersleb.de/#2013-08-27
64.
Post 3068685 (copy this link) (by giszmo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.14h):
herp, derp aderp, herp ddddeerrp derpaherp, derp?
Thank you for sharing your innermost thoughts with us.
Thank *you* for pulling it out of Ignore-land.
65.
Post 3256147 (copy this link) (by giszmo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.16h):
Zerocoin will only happen in the form of an altcoin.
In that case, it will be interesting to see what happens with whichever alt adopts the protocols.
Zerocoin does not give you free anonymity. For that, you also have to add in random time delays. Otherwise, it is a simple timing analysis away from bitcoin. And, of course, time is money.
Which, if you wanted to shield the real time deposits/withdrawals from a fund which has a sizeable holding, could be done by shuffling coins between a handful of wallets. Without Zerocoin—much more difficult.
ZeroCoin will come in the one form or the other. Not in the current form though. Satoshi wants to cash out some day and if he's not the US.gov anyway, he will put his massive weight behind some anonymity feature.
For not that extreme cases, off chain transactions will do the trick. I basically see a future where we only put about 2 transactions on the chain *per year* and the rest happens off the chain.
66.
Post 3270742 (copy this link) (by giszmo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.16h):
Look at just how dramatic the losses at gox were!
Looking at only gox, it looks like the volume completely does not support the current price level but bitstamp looks well aligned throughout these months. Still there is massive volume missing and I have no clue if localbitcoins and all the others compensate for the missing volume on gox.
67.
Post 3314327 (copy this link) (by giszmo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.17h):
In retrospect it seems obvious, but back then, the most optimistic talked prices around 4$ (we got to 7$ in what, two months?) . Anyone posting suggestions of 100-200$ was just like the guys now, talking about 10,000$ in 2015.
Its easier to go from $10 to $100 then from $100 to $1000.
It needs much more volume.
We are far from saturation. Assuming bitcoin will replace fiat, the road from $1 to $10 should be just as hard as from $10 to $100 but at some point this would accelerate as fiat can be printed at will. If it were limited I would agree there would be exponential growth until bitcoin economy is about 10% of fiat economy and there it would have to slow down but if bitcoin takes over the world, you will see 1BTC being traded for 1 trillion USD easily. By that time there might be million dollar bills in circulation that the US.gov promised to back with 1µBTC each and depending on whether people believe it or not, the decline of value will continue.
68.
Post 3461518 (copy this link) (by giszmo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.19h):
So whose wall are we tracking? All of them? Chartbuddy gonna post 4 graphs an hour? That would actually be great.....
I am considering what to do with ChartBuddy. I may just add three more dimensions to the chart.
I don't mind to have just several PNGs next to each other. On my screen, having one or having 5 horizontally wouldn't make a difference. Seeing 4 ignored posts rather than one per hour sure makes a difference.
69.
Post 3526348 (copy this link) (by giszmo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.21h):
Hey! Bitcoinity! Very funny!
Ok, so I usually have MtGox and Bitstamp on my first two tabs when suddenly I see this:
Too bad it was only a 502 server error
70.
Post 3618716 (copy this link) (by giszmo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.24h):
Ok, China is totally on steroids:
Right now arbitrage between bitcoin China and bitstamp would yield 19% profit! (3552CNY / 491USD = 1.19)
Sure, Gox is dangling around at 10% but China is just insane!
71.
Post 5802487 (copy this link) (by giszmo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.28h):
Number of bitcoin addresses (excluding dust) is still around 500,000 if reddit is to be believed. This has a long way to run yet.
About 1.34 million unless your definition of "dust" is way different than mine (<1m
BTC).
Source.
As always there are multi user wallets that could be millions not being accounted for users and there are power users with thousands of addresses. I sent to 300 paperwallets that are mostly unspent. So fid others. These numbers are a very bad estimate for the market.
Edit: this forum suuuuxxxx on android
72.
Post 5802771 (copy this link) (by giszmo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.28h):
As always there are multi user wallets that could be millions not being accounted for users
You mean exchanges, tumblers, Bitpay? But people who use those probably have at least one private address. So the number of addresses can only be higher than the number of owners.
Ask Tony Gallippi if his 30000 customers all have wallets. My bet would be the majority don't.
73.
Post 6757092 (copy this link) (by giszmo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.44h):
I am afraid I become another Jorge - observing bit coin attics is very interesting and sometimes amusing, especially when you have no money invested. I am also still interested in crypto currencies and may change my decision about not investing in bit coin if price will go lower.
Say "bit coin" one more time!
It's bitcoin!
74.
Post 8324677 (copy this link) (by giszmo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.04h):
interesting post, i'm hoping we test 540 to see if these figures are accurate.
Can someone explain this sentence to the non-finance literate?
"Conclusion if we break below $550 I expect the market to get VERY fast with cascading margin calls on bfx. Admittedly we might need some FUD to get there but those price levels are at least in sight "
If the price falls below $540, those that borrowed at $650 do not have enough collateral to sustain their positions. Bitfinex will force them to sell.
As for $550 that's a technical point in the charts that we've bounced off a few times. To break that support means longs are throwing in the towel.
So if bitfinex forces them to sell, what this means that if the price hits $540 we will then have a crash? How much volume of BTC would be force-sold at this level? Thanks for the help understanding this guys
The speculation is about a squeeze. People who want to buy cheap are selling now to trigger automatic selling by stop loss orders which could run into a chain reaction resulting in really cheap coins. The current dip could be the result of a successful small attempt at this or could be motions to achieve this with a much lower goal but it would basically be run by people who would fill their positions after their financial attack succeeded or not. It's basically like real cash poker where you don't know how deep the pockets of your adversary are, so some try to bluff big time (drive the price down) and if they fail, they will have a hard time buying back in. If they win, they make a killing out of it. If you are not into that sort of games, stay out of it and wait until next week.
75.
Post 12104375 (copy this link) (by giszmo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.23h):
A blazz from the pazz, or "Where Are They Now":
...wait for it...
Oh damn! So Bitcoin died?
Where did you find this picture?
tineye can't find it.
