Who's the best ever at predicting BTC price development? E.g.: Did any member of these forums predict (and publically state), back in 2009/2010, that BTC price would go beyond $ 1000 by the end of 2013?

Keep in mind that we need a fossil fuel-based infrastructure to produce solar panels, windmills and other so-called renewable energy sources. Producing things like electric cars and solar panels is very expensive (and extremely energy intensive), having a very low EROEI. We depend on oil and coal in ways most of us can't even imagine. (More than 95 % of everyday products we're dependent on, are either made from oil directly -- or indirectly reliant on a fossil fuel-infrastructure.)
An oil-based infrastructure is essential for our civilization -- so now, when we're running out of these types of fuel, this civilization must necessarily grind to a halt. And that's exactly what we're seeing, although the crisis is camouflaged as a debt/credit crisis.
Expect to see a lot harder austerity measures and bankster bailouts (and bail-ins) as the fight over ever scarcer natural resources intensifies.

I'm selling my coins today. Will buy them back when we hit sub-400 prices in a couple of weeks or so.

Thanks. We'll see ... 

I'm flexible. I might buy them back even if we "just" go below 500 or whatever. It depends. And even if we won't get there in a "couple of weeks or so", we will eventually, soon enough. There will be plenty of crashes/corrections still.

Interestingly, Bitstamp seems unwilling to let a third party do an audit of its fiat reserves (if there are any left). So far, Mike Hearn has supposedly seen "proof" that they still have around 180k BTC in reserves. (But there's no way of knowing whether this number corresponds to what customers actually have deposited in the exchange.) They didn't show him any fiat reserves though. I wonder why? Maybe because they used (a lot of) their customer's deposited fiat to buy up huge amounts of BTC shortly before Hearn's audit, to cover losses after an undisclosed theft?

This would help explain the price spike we've experienced recently.

I think we're in a general downtrend still, and I suspect this will be accelerated when more and more people report their inability to withdraw fiat from Stamp. All it takes for BTC to go (temporarily) back to the 300-range is another large exchange failing, or another "China ban". It's fragile. There are still plenty of exchange owners who haven't stolen their customer's money, but they will, eventually. So there's a lot of downside potential, while not much potential for upside, since adoption basically has ground to a halt, and the general public is becoming increasingly sceptic towards Bitcoin.

We're still far away from anything resembling mainstream adoption. If it ever comes, we won't start seeing it until 2017, at the very earliest.

Higher prices won't be reached unless ...

A) ... a reliable, user-friendly infrastructure emerges. This is utopian.

or ...

B) One or several exchanges use Willy-like bots to manipulate the price, thus maybe instigating a new rally. This might drive the price up to $ 1000 or more, temporarily. A very likely scenario, in the long term at least.

A generally bullish sentiment means we're probably going down.

In the next 24 hours, price will go down to 470ish.

24 hours from now, Stamp will be at 480 or less. 48 hours from now, Stamp will be at 460 or less.

This is probably a dead cat bounce.

I am relatively bullish on Bitcoin mid-term. I believe we will be above 530 a week from now. 700 or more is a possibility by December 31, barring any huge Black Swan events.

I suspect we might enter 2015 somewhat on the plus side of $600.
$800 or more can be reached by the end of 2015.

But a lot of unforeseen events might drive price lower.

You didn't get richer because you used TA. You got richer despite using it. Correlation doesn't equal causation.

Oh no, we're going up again! We can't allow this to go on! We need to get down to sub-400 to shake out more weak hands first!

The dead cat is gonna bounce for a while.

We're gonna stay around 500 for the next couple of weeks. Then it's down to 450, before we bounce up to 530 for a short while, then finding our way back to 480 or so.

How do you know it's only one guy, and not several orders stacked on top of eachother?

It's called a free market. Deal with it.

We'll soon see sub 450 as well.
450 will be the new 500, the new point BTC will struggle to stay above. The unsustainability of this Ponzi scheme is becoming apparent even to some cultists now. Thus they dump their holdings.

There was a tiny dead cat bounce. Now we're heading down to sub 450.

LOL!

We need to get to zero to shake out all the weak hands.

rpietila has now admitted that this might be the final capitulation.


Even the permabulls are starting to see the truth.

I'm noticing there's a bullish sentiment here again, after some recent bearishness.

That means we'll hit 350 and lower by the weekend.

The bullishness in here has made me certain we'll go sub 350 very soon. I.e. less than five days from now.

Tiny dead cat bounce up to 425 before we crash to sub 350.

Dead cat bounce.
350 in a couple of days.

In its infancy ... yeah, right ...  It's only six years old, after all.

Most people here are late adopters, entering the world of Bitcoin in its twilight years. But of course, the cultists, permabulls and other scammers would have them believe they're all early adopters.

Yes. And when we hit 350 in a couple of days or weeks, the market will still believe there are even cheaper coins on the horizon. Thus, potential buyers will delay their buy-in. Then, when we hit 300, they will still believe there are even cheaper coins on the horizon ... Etcetera ...

While we approach zero in this manner, collective fear and uncertainty will grow, the media portrayal of Bitcoin will turn more sour, and the average Joes (who were supposed to fuel the next bubble) will therefore continue staying away from this Beanie Baby mania. All the while, the cultists will continue yelling about 10k coins and Wall Street money entering the BTC economy any day now.

Yeah, let's hope so. That way even more sell pressure will be created, and even more people will stay away from Bitcoin.

I will buy your coins from you for $50 next year.

Sub 350 and 300 is gonna come sooner than most people realize. The smartest move now is for everyone to sell as many coins as they can, to buy back at a much lower price. There will be plenty of cheap coins, more than enough for anyone wanting to buy.

I'm sensing a lot of downward pressure in the markets right now. Any newbs should sell now, to buy in again when we hit sub 200.

Stamp's orderbook has looked bullish for more than a week. Still we've been heading down. People cancel their buy orders all the time. It's just the nature of the game. When traders search their hearts, deep down inside they all know that there'll be cheaper coins to buy a week from now. And even cheaper coins, two weeks from now. Etcetera.
Everyone is losing faith in Bitcoin. This is a free market, and it's wonderful to watch how it unfolds, how supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, predictably and mechanically like clockwork.

This.

The problem is: Price won't rise as long as merchants and miners dump thousands of coins every day. There simply isn't enough demand for all of that supply. That's why the price will continue falling until Bitcoin finds its "true price", which is somewhere in the single digits, probably very close to zero.

We're slowly coming out of the delusional bubble sparked by Markus, Willybot and other Karpeles manipulation schemes. Gox was, for a long time, the only BTC exchange. And it was by far the largest, for several years. With Gox gone, the veil of illusions is slowly fading away, and people are gradually realizing that internet funbux simply aren't worth several hundred dollars.

I'm just stating the facts. Facts that everyone can observe if they glance briefly at the price development and statistics of user adoption.

You don't like the facts? Well, tough luck, because this is a free market, ruled by the simple law of supply and demand. That's why the price will continue falling. Because the price doesn't care one bit about the hopes and delusions of cultists or permabulls.

Well, most of those 13 million coins are locked up in cold storage. Roughly half of them are probably unavailable, since their owners no longer have access to the private keys. The amount of coins actually circulating on the exchanges or in the "greater Bitcoin economy" is somewhere in the tens of thousands, isn't it? Or maybe only in the thousands?

Even with such a small supply, the demand still can't keep up. That gives us a valuable lesson about Bitcoin. We better start learning from that lesson.

I see a lot of desperate permabulls and cultists trying to lure newbies into their crumbling pyramid scheme.
This signals a great fall in confidence (and thus price), so I think we're likely to see sub 350 in less than two days. Then 300 will come rapidly, and the process will only accelerate from there.
I'm expecting the cultists to become progressively more aggressive with every dollar mercilessly chipped away from the price.

There are some in this very thread. Scroll upwards and look at previous pages.

But to be fair, the writings of cultists and permabulls are entertaining. Especially in a bear market. So I appreciate their input. I truly do.

Oh, it's the evil banksters and "bear whales" and paid government shills manipulating the price of course. You see, according to the cultists: Whenever BTC price goes down, it's price manipulation. Whenever it goes up, it's a healthy market discovering the "true price" of Bitcoin. That's why the cultists always ignore Willybot, Markus and the other Gox bots that created every BTC bubble in the first place. They deny the very existence of those bots, since they don't fit neatly into the narrative of organic growth and a healthy market ruled by supply and demand.

That's why the permabulls and cultists always talk about "bear whales" supposedly "manipulating" the price to buy huge amounts of "cheap coins".

They can't face the simple fact that ordinary people (and smart investors) simply aren't interested in ridiculous internet funbux. And they aren't suddenly gonna become interested, even when the price crashes to single digits, where it rightfully belongs. In fact, they'll be even less interested then than they are now.
 

I say a lot of things in jest. I'm probably not gonna buy more bitcoins anytime soon. Because Bitcoin really does seem to be going down, whether we like it or not.

And no, I don't like it.

As I mentioned in another thread earlier today, approximately 5% of my net worth is placed in BTC. Since I'm only 95% sure BTC will fail.

But I wanna be honest with people, and not try to lure clueless newbs into a speculative bubble where they'll risk losing their sanity and all of their money. That's why I don't post permabullish spam like the cultists do.

If Bitcoin fails because of the bearish posts of a single guy (or several guys) on these forums, then Bitcoin doesn't deserve to exist in the first place. Good riddance.

Let's hope I'm proven wrong in my bearishness.

Oh, and I don't post much unless there's some volatility in the markets. I've posted a lot today, since the price has been falling quite a lot today. It's fun to argue with cultists and permabulls in these bearish times.

Hmmm ...

We obviously need to get all the way to zero before all the weak hands are shaken out!

And then, magically, Bitcoin price will rise to ten thousand dollars in a matter of weeks!


/cultist mode

Cheap coins!!!

... and still no one is buying?!

What a surprise!  

Hehe. 

Ah, it feels great watching all the cultists panic sell their coins!

Watching BTC crash and burn in real time is a fantastic form of entertainment!

That's a shame.

But don't worry, because according to the cultists and permabulls, we'll magically be launched up to 10k and beyond any day now! You just gotta stay strong in your faith, and pray to Satoshi! Every major Wall Street player is lining up right in this moment, and they'll surely pump the price up to five and ten digits in no time.

The market doesn't seem to agree with you.

Yes. And look at the incredible rally we're currently experiencing due to that fact! Bullish!  

This Circle rally is huge! Look at all the buying going on!!! Demand is crazy high!!!

Yeah, the price is going through the roof right now! Look at the exploding demand! We're headed for five digits by tomorrow!!!

Right?

Right ...?!  

Hadn't it been for the "fantastic" Circle news, we would've probably been below 350 by now.

Now, 350 was delayed by a day or two.

Half a year from now, cultists and permabulls will dream about Bitcoin one day climbing back up to the insanely high price of $375.

Actually, a few months ago, there were tons of people here saying we would never see the 500's again as well. And when we were above 1000, there were tons of people here saying we would never see sub 1000 prices again. A lot of the regular posters here actually said such things.

At least a few of those people now claim we're going to 10k by Christmas.

The lesson is this: Never listen to the bulltards and cultists.

That's actually mature of you. I'm glad you're being honest.  

I'm in the exact same situation. I really hope Bitcoin can make it through this, but I don't think it can. This is the final capitulation. It will probably last for months and months.

I've been way too bullish on Bitcoin. I apologize.
Only falllling and a couple other users have been bearish enough.

I think we'll see double digits in less than a week from now. Perhaps this, as well, is too bullish.

This is what it looks like when a pyramid scheme is collapsing.

Perhaps some bulltards and cultists will soon learn a valuable lesson about the importance of Willybot, Markus and other Gox shenanigans in creating all BTC bubbles.

Let's be honest with ourselves here: We will see double digit prices this year, whether we like it or not. We might see single digit prices as well. Let's start coming to terms with that fact.

That money will never pour into BTC, since Gross, Wall Street guys and other smart people don't invest in pyramid schemes. They're not interested in making cultist neckbeards rich.

Did you get permission to panic sell them when the price drops to $50 as well?

Will never happen. Big money stays away from MLM schemes.

Dead cat bounce. Won't go higher than 310. We'll hit 270 or lower tomorrow. Sub 200 less than a week from now. Sub 100 in less than three weeks. Mark my words.

MAYBE ...? LOL! 

Sub 260 in less than 24 hours.

Nothing has changed with this particular dead cat bounce. This was to be expected.
My prediction: We might go all the way to 370-380 before a sharp drop to sub 250.

1k incoming.

Mark Karpeles sure is dumping a lot of stolen Gox coins today.

If I'd trusted Bitfinex, I'd shorted Bitcoin a long time ago.

Unfortunately, one can't trust any Bitcoin exchange.

How are those predictions working out for you?

Making a lot of money lately, Nostradamus?

The whales, the early adopters, the cultists, the bulltards, the geeks, the miners, the merchants and everyone else holding Bitcoin. That's who will sell when price continues crashing down.

That someone is Mark Karpeles. And probably lots of other crooks and whales.

350? On which exchange?

JorgeStolfi is the most sane, reasonable member on these forums.

I might have been wrong about minor short term price movements, but I've gotten the big picture right. I.e.: I understood that price, generally, would head down. That's not impressive though, since any sane observer could see it coming.

We saw a tiny DCB a couple of days ago. I think we might go sub 300 by the end of November though. Probably sub 250 by January. With quite a few DCB's along the way.

We need to go sub $200 to shake out more cultists. There are currently too many cultists tainting the public image of Bitcoin, thus suppressing price and hindering adoption. Luckily, I think sub 200 might be achievable in December.

Don't worry. In 2015 you'll get plenty of chances to buy sub $200 and sub $100 coins. You can buy as many as you like. People will be more than willing to sell.

That halving is priced in already. It's a known event.

By fall of 2016, Bitcoin will be sub $10.

Are you currently in the red or in the black? How much of your wealth have you put into Bitcoin?

We're on track to start the new year sub 300.

Double and single digit prices will come in 2015.

Most cultists and permabulls still live in the basement of their parents' house. And their "salary" is the $5 allowance they get every week, so they don't really have a lot of money to spend on trying to keep this sinking ship afloat.

Paid shill at The Fed.

This is another good day for us paid bankster shills. We don't even have to spread any FUD; the BTC price does the job all on its own.

This is the year of Bitcoin, guys.

The USD will collapse, the Fed will burn to the ground, America will adopt Bitcoin as legal tender, every barrel of oil will be sold for BTC, and every major industrial nation will hold plenty of bitcoins as reserve currency. Think about the staggering number of transactions that theoretically can be processed by the amazing Blockchain: A whopping 2.7 transactions per second! With such huge capacity and amazing speed (only an hour for the necessary 6 confirmations), it's no wonder every Wall Street fiat bankster jumped aboard the Bitcoin ship in 2014. And with the mindblowing security, safety and user-friendliness of the Bitcoin infrastructure, I'm not the least bit surprised to see every unbanked third world peasant gobble up all those cheap coins now. It's obvious that every person on Earth wants to be their own bank. It's the dream of every little child to be their own bank. Or so I've heard.

The Manbearwhale is back with his price manipulation schemes. He's hoping to push the price down in the 250 range, to buy up all them cheap coinz given to him by all the weak hands. This is extremely bullish, gentlemen.

You won't have time to get fresh fiat to the exchange before BTC goes sub 200. This ship is sinking faster than even I predicted. Such a shame. Chasing losses must be a nice hobby. Really profitable, right?

I did indeed buy my first bitcoins in mid November 2013, at $740 a piece. And I sold most of them five days later, at $1100.

But I'm happy for you if you haven't lost any money yet. Such a shame that isn't going to continue.

At least you'll be able to hoard a lot of bitcoins now that the price drops quickly to double digits. Cheap coins, weak hands, strong fundamentals, something something blockchain, something white paper Satoshi ETF dirty fiat evil banksters hyperinflation of the dollar Wall Street money soon to the moon HODL, etc. Totally not a cult.

All cultist bulltards should be tremendously happy about this (predicted) price drop. It just means they got more cheap coins from all those weak hands. The cultists only care about hoarding as many bitcoins as possible, right? The BTC price measured in fiat is totally irrelevant, right? 

Where is that fewcoins guy now? He's been strangely quiet lately, after "calling the bottom" and supposedly buying in massively (with his "crew") a few weeks ago  ...

Yeah. So? It just means that "Someone" are stupid and will panic sell when we go sub 200 soon.

No. 3600 new bitcoins are produced every day. The market doesn't want all those coins, as shown by the falling price. Markus, Willy and other Gox price manipulation schemes were the only reason price went to two, three and four digits in the first place. Now that Gox is gone, Bitcoin is exposed as what it is: A poorly designed pyramid scheme technology that has zero utility for ordinary consumers. The only people who has any use for bitcoins, are a few thousand drug addicts and child pornographers.

The speculative Bitcoin fad is over. Bitcoin will go back to single digits now. A lot of cultists, bulltards, early adopters and other bagholders will commit suicide in the coming months.

Remember how the price dropped massively ahead of the Bitstamp "hack" announcement?

It seems like we'll be getting a new announcement (but not necessarily from Bitstamp) quite soon ... This is a good time to invest in the popcorn industry.

Good luck, cultists. Keep on "buying" all those "cheap coins". (Read: Insanely overpriced coins.)

I don't know what the news are, or if there are any news at all. But let's say there aren't any news: Isn't it a bit strange there's such a massive price drop then? How do you explain this drop? And where do you see the bottom? And when will your coins be worth 10k? Or 1k? Where will all that buy pressure come from?

Dead cat bounce.

That statement is tautological.

This is just Wall Street manipulating the price lower (for the millionth time) to buy in cheap.