Hi all,

Big noob here...

I feel a bit of background might be necessary, but feel free to skip over this if you like...

How I came around to Bitcoin:
I regularly meet for morning coffees with my Dad (who is an ardent Bitcoin advocate and owns upwards of 3000 BTC which he purchased back when 1 BTC was less than $3 if I am not mistaken), and in the last year, I have not had a single conversation with him where he has not mentioned the word 'Bitcoin' at least once (he would find any way to slip it in). He is an electrical engineer and software developer and is prone to technical ramblings, most of which are over my head. This is the man who also predicted that the GFC would cripple the US (and Australia) in 2013. He said that we would be reduced to living in a land where guns and fuel were the most sought-after commodities, and people would be using fiat as toilet paper. Being currently in 2013 where I have yet to see a gun, and fuel is still bought at the local petrol station, I hope I am forgiven for not quite 'buying into' (no pun intended) his passionate promotions of Bitcoin.

Then, one day in October, he pulled out his phone and showed me the current value of 1 BTC - $150. I didn't take any notice.

We met a few days later, and again he pulled out his phone and showed me the current value of 1 BTC - $230.

From then on, his new way of greeting became him simply holding up his phone and flashing the now current value.

Still, I didn't take too much notice of it, but I think you guys can see what is coming....

I remember him showing me the price and it was at around $400 and I asked him if I should purchase some coins myself with some of my meager savings.
He said "I'll answer your question with another question - What is Bitcoin?".
The best I could do was "Ummmm, imaginary money" (please forgive me!).
His response was "Don't invest in something you don't know anything about!"
This was his way of urging me to learn about it... after all, researching is one thing I should technically be good at (I am a university lecturer). So I went away and did a bit of reading... and a bit more reading... and the rest is history, as they say. I was completely blown away by the entire concept, its mysterious origin, the transparent anonymity of transactions, the power of an omnipotent ledger... etc etc.

But, being aware of Bitcoin's volatility and having lived most of my adult life very frugally, $400 per BTC seemed so much to me (and I greedily wanted at least one whole coin, and not some mBTC fraction). Plus, at this point, 1 BTC had already risen in value to over $500! So I waited... and the phone flashing continued... $530.... $697... $800... At one point, I remember lamenting to Dad "$400 was a bloody bargain!". And it just kept going up! My father was now a millionaire!! And there seemed to be no end in sight. Bitcoin could do no wrong. Ahhhh... as they say "Hindsight is 20/20."

Not having a crystal ball, I asked myself "Do you truly believe in the fundamentals behind Bitcoin?" and I could honestly answer "yes".
So I went back and collected all my Bitcoin research and pitched it to my husband. I think it was my enthusiasm (which was probably bordering on reverence by this point) that did it - he agreed to redraw on our home loan. I told him that time was of the essence and if we didn't buy now, it would be too late. This was the night of Wednesday 4th December. The very next day I went and bought 7.7 BTC for $9000. The very NEXT day.... well you all know what happened. I won't deny, the next few days have definitely tested my belief in Bitcoin. But I stuck to my guns and held. I still maintain that one day in the near-ish future, I will tell my sister's grandkids that I once owned 7.7 BTC, and that they be all wide-eyed and gob-smacked "No freakin way!!!!".

Anyway, over the past few weeks, I have become a little obsessed with tracking Bitcoin (my husband yesterday made me delete all Bitcoin apps (bar the wallet) from my phone because he was so fed up with the constant updates and my constant chart-checking). These forums have been a godsend, and have basically fueled this little addiction. You are all certainly right - it is one hell of a ride.

Now, just yesterday one of my Dad's colleagues wanted to sell 1BTC (for $1000 cash) and asked if I was interested. I said "Hell yeah!"... As soon as I committed myself, a second later the price started plummeting. So FYI, if anyone is interested when the next mini 'crash' will be, just ask me to shout out when I'm next going to buy some BTC  .

My question:
Aaaaaaaaaaaanyway, I had a simple question for the experts here, and I apologise in advance if this is already covered in another thread... When you all mention 'whales dumping', is this essentially the scenario you are talking about?
-- Say a whale has 20,000 BTC and decides to sell at a high of $1000 (in a few smaller dumps, but still within a concentrated period of time)... Since that would account for approximately 0.2% of the total coins currently in circulation, I would imagine that his dump could make a big enough dent in the current price. This dent can then be misconstrued as a crash and a bunch of 'noobs' panic sell, causing the price to plummet further (to say $880 like last night). Then the big whale comes along and buys back his 20,000 BTC for a now discounted price, pocketing $2.4 mil in fiat in the process. --

Is this what is happening? How long can this cycle continue?

(Note: I know that this is essentially what many of you are doing with regards to day trading bitcoin (i.e. buy low, sell high, rinse, repeat), but the key difference here is that these whales seem to be able to manipulate the price to their will (i.e. essentially have a crystal ball), in comparison to the 'average' day-trader who has to make strategic guesses as to what are highs and lows.)

Sorry! I am cursed!

I've been reading for a while, but quite frankly, have been too intimidated by you big guns to post before. So thanks for the welcome - it is nice of you .

I think my Dad is in a pretty good situation - he has his 3000+ BTC which I know he would be tempted to cash out to get a nice tidy fiat sum. (Despite being a bitcoin believer, I think the lure of instantaneous gains is pretty strong.) But he physically can't touch it for another 8 years - it's all in his super account. I suspect he will be very thankful that the decision was out of this hands when the time comes to access it.

The best equivalent I can think of is the 401k, but there are some differences. It is basically your retirement fund - can't touch it until you meet the minimum age.

Good point. He is a wily bastard... so, probably not.

Has anyone with a good chunk of spare time up their sleeve ever identified periods where Bitcoin received negative (or positive) media attention with the troughs and peaks on the chart? Of course, how you could identify whether a trough was due to a whale who woke up and decided to offload 20,000 coins or a negative story about bitcoin is another matter.

I should clarify - he could technically cash out if he had good reason, but he wouldn't be able to touch the money from said cash-out until he retired.
There are no super companies that I know of that allow investment in Bitcoin (yet), so of course, Dad had to go and create his own super company, of which he is the trustee. He manages the accounts of himself, his wife, and three sisters. When I said that he couldn't physically touch it, I meant that he couldn't physically reap the fiat benefits. But, as long as he still 'believes' in the Bitcoin protocol, why not just let it sit there? Again, if this were to somehow change (in the very unlikely event that some flaw was found in the Bitcoin protocol), he would be allowed to sell his coins and re-invest the fiat as he sees fit.

I'm still here . Still reading... Still 'hodling'. I paid $1080 for each of my 11.1 bitcoins and have not sold - I rationalise this like so: bitcoin is only worth as much as someone is willing to pay for it right? And I refuse to sell them for less, which means they are still worth at least $1080 . Ergo, I have lost no money . How's that for a comforting delusion?

Thanks! I did do some calculations before buying the coins - the repayments on the house are so much anyway that a withdrawal of $12k hardly makes a difference (isn't that depressing).

Never really taken a risk like this before, but what the hell right? Besides, after reading about Bitcoin (my research at work took a backseat - oops) it's become a bit of an obsession... I only picked up on your post because I read this damn thread every day and have the bitcoinwisdom tab open all day to monitor the price. It's almost (almost!) worth paying $12k just to be a part of this ride..... well maybe not that much .

That's a great way of putting it. I'm definitely going to use that when one of my anti-Bitcoin friends throws the dropped price in my face -- "An unrealized loss is not a loss."

No, it's not rent money . I tried to abide by the old adage; "Only invest what you can afford to lose." I see that one has been thrown around this forum a lot actually. Easier said than done though I suppose!

Happy New Year from down under...

Without intending to, I ended up acting as a bit of a Bitcoin advocate tonight while out with friends at a New Years Eve party. I tried to enlighten them (inadvertently came up with a different analogy each time) as to what Bitcoin really was, but in the end the main 'argument' they had against it was "If I can't touch it, it's not real - I don't trust the internet with it". Which is ironic since that is basically what they're doing with their bank accounts.

One guy was a Financial Advisor (capital 'F', capital 'A' - his distinction, not mine) who said he was happy to "argue against Bitcoin all night". I (successfully, I think) countered every roadblock he threw up about Bitcoin and ended up betting him that one Bitcoin would be worth more than $50,000USD in 3 years (perhaps a little bullish, although can you blame me?)*. I confess, I may have been a little inebriated by this point, but I am getting a little fed up with the ramblings of people who have not taken a few minutes out of their day to research what Bitcoin actually is (i.e. a protocol as well as a currency), but instead act as if they're experts who foresee the demise of this 'imaginary money'.

Does anyone else get a little fed up with this sort of attitude?

(Apologies if this post does not belong in this thread... It's just that this is the main thread I read (every morning without fail, I trawl through the 8 or so pages that have been posted overnight... > 8 pages = something big has happened, < 8 pages = price has remained stagnant.) Although, it seems 'stagnant' in Bitcoin vernacular is akin to 'short-term' or 'temporary' in normal trading terms.)

*Bought at $1060 and have been 'hodling' ever since.
 

Thanks hey! There are some very nice guys on this forum .

You would hope that by the time 1 BTC = $10,000 USD the fluctuations or volatility in these 'early years' will have subsided. Otherwise, we could be seeing swings between $10,000 and $100,000 each month! The stress levels of BTC day-traders seem high enough as it is... what would happen then??

Noted. But then, at what would you consider the 'make-or-break' price? If volatility still continues >$10,000 then you are saying Bitcoin will fail?

Hey, I take offence to this! I am one of these 'stupid' people. As they say, it is probable that Bitcoin will have a binary outcome, so I simply jumped on as soon as I could (which in hindsight, was unfortunately close to the ATH) but I have held ever since. No plans to panic sell. As far as I'm concerned, my coins are still worth at least $1060 because I will not part with them for any less.

edit: Sorry Davy05, quote is fixed now

Sorry Davy05!

Thanks BitChick - you're a very nice presence on this forum .

I hope I will be in a position to give this same advice to another newbie sometime in the near future. Pay it forward at and all...

That's interesting - my analysis puts the bottom at around 17 May, which falls nicely within your range also. My projected predictions (late 2014 to mid 2015) will still hold true if we rise before this date though. It will be very interesting to see what happens in the coming weeks...

What about the day that Bitcoin prices surpass the number of thread pages on the Wall Observer? Now that is worth a party!

Done - We are roughly looking at September 2015, unless we align during the March 2015 bubble cycle...



edit: Sorry about all the white space!

You are so right! But maybe this whole thread is one big "Observer Effect" (hell - it's in the name of the thread!)...

The Observer Effect: "Changes that the act of observation will make on a phenomenon being observed."

(Side note: I have never received a donation before... that is so cool! There are some very nice people on this forum.)

edit: Had to add this...

I disagree - what you are referring to is a super-exponential trend. Most people seem to agree that Bitcoin is following an exponential trend (hence the exponential trendline with a linear y-axis in my plot...)

Is this a donation-worthy chart?



I did this up when we were stagnant in the 400's (the blue line) and was waiting to see if the channel here held, and sure enough, the price hit the lower channel boundary and is slowly creeping up (the red line).

I also found that the bubbles (or peaks, if you would prefer to call them that) seem to occur approximately every 234 days (an observation already mentioned on this forum) - with the minimum time between peaks being 213 days and the maximum time being 235 days. Considering there have been six peaks, that is a very small degree of variability for such a volatile phenomenon as Bitcoin.

I then plotted these peaks only and noticed that (bar the June 2011 peak), the others very closely follow an exponential trend which puts the next peak at approximately $4,800 (again, aligning with other predictions being tossed around the forum).

If you extrapolate this trend further, it puts the March 2015 peak at a whopping $26,000!

One last interesting point of note... the runup to the bubbles, whilst varying in duration, does appear to assume the same velocity. Assuming we hit the top of the channel in the next run-up, this price velocity has us commencing the notorious bull-run within the next 10-20 days. Is it just a coincidence that the 1w MACD crossover looks likely to occur in the next 10-20 days?.....

Final disclaimer (before someone else says it): Past behaviour is no indication of the future.
... but it sure is interesting...

Yeah, my suggestion was "Wall Observer Thread Ultimate Parity Party" or "WOTUP Party".

Any comments on the tentative 1w MACD crossover?

For those of you who feel a little uneasy because of the latest 'dip'...

I superimposed the current trend (over the last 50 days) with the run-ups to the April and November 2013 peaks.

We still seem to be right on track for a peak between $4000 and $5000...



Good news is we only need to wait a fortnight (maximum) to find out if history will repeat itself.

edit: This plot has the peak occurring in late July, which is based on the assumption that the peaks occur (approximately) every 234 days (an assumption based on historical data).

Welcome, Newbie... great first post. There are some good points there - and I don't think you have missed the boat at all. Do you think you will try and increase your holdings if there is no drastic change in price after the auction?