All posts made by Speedie in Bitcointalk.org's Wall Observer thread



1. Post 5271581 (copy this link) (by Speedie) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.14h):

Quote from: fotosonics on February 21, 2014, 12:38:41 AM
560 is right on the baseline for all the lows on the the log chart since the ATH.  Any lower is looking like a breakdown.

Well, it's happening.

Now at a 3-month all time low. Significant.

To all fellow hodlers, yes, we're good, but this... is getting... ridiculous...

Not even close assuming we're talking Stamp prices. 3 month low was $382.21 on 12/17/2013. This isn't even a 3 week low - $530.00 on 2/10/2014.



2. Post 5271796 (copy this link) (by Speedie) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.14h):

Quote from: adamstgBit on February 21, 2014, 12:55:23 AM


I'm very bullish on BTC long term, in fact on cryptos in general, but right now the technicals are terrible and getting worse by the hour. Take a look at a 1 week chart with 50 and 200 week SMAs plus MACD if you really want to get a knot in your stomach.



3. Post 5272330 (copy this link) (by Speedie) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.14h):

Quote from: creekbore on February 21, 2014, 01:31:06 AM

I'm very bullish on BTC long term, in fact on cryptos in general, but right now the technicals are terrible and getting worse by the hour. Take a look at a 1 week chart with 50 and 200 week SMAs plus MACD if you really want to get a knot in your stomach.

One week charts aren't that accurate - try the same indicators over three months --we've along way to go to hit the SMA200

In case it was badly phrased, I meant a chart where each candle represents 1 week. The 1W option on BitcoinWisdom in other words. I'd post a pic but the site is down right now. Schadenfreude crashed it no doubt.



4. Post 5282227 (copy this link) (by Speedie) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.15h):

Quote from: ErisDiscordia on February 21, 2014, 01:38:23 PM
I know nothing about TA but is that a "head and shoulders" forming on 15m chart on stamp? That is supposed to be bullish I believe?

Inverse H&S, yes. We'd need to hold $560 and then break out above $590 with a surge in volume. Measured target in that scenario would be $650 calculated as $590 neckline + ($590 neckline - $530 head).



5. Post 5282652 (copy this link) (by Speedie) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.15h):

Quote from: ErisDiscordia on February 21, 2014, 02:47:28 PM
I know nothing about TA but is that a "head and shoulders" forming on 15m chart on stamp? That is supposed to be bullish I believe?

Inverse H&S, yes. We'd need to hold $560 and then break out above $590 with a surge in volume. Measured target in that scenario would be $650 calculated as $590 neckline + ($590 neckline - $530 head).

Thanks for the explanation! Now I feel a bit less dumb. Seeing there seems to have just been a 1K+ btc dump on stamp I assume it's safe to say that we didn't break out, but break down. So it was a fake Head & shoulders! Gotta watch out for that, you'll get dandruff.

You're welcome. $560 held so the pattern is still valid, however we'd need to drive up from here and then break through $590 with gusto volume-wise. Hard to see that happening absent Gox unGoxing itself.

On the plus side I now have a substitute in my lexicon for the F word  Smiley  



6. Post 5282753 (copy this link) (by Speedie) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.15h):

Quote from: spooderman on February 21, 2014, 03:05:45 PM
I know nothing about TA but is that a "head and shoulders" forming on 15m chart on stamp? That is supposed to be bullish I believe?

Inverse H&S, yes. We'd need to hold $560 and then break out above $590 with a surge in volume. Measured target in that scenario would be $650 calculated as $590 neckline + ($590 neckline - $530 head).

Thanks for the explanation! Now I feel a bit less dumb. Seeing there seems to have just been a 1K+ btc dump on stamp I assume it's safe to say that we didn't break out, but break down. So it was a fake Head & shoulders! Gotta watch out for that, you'll get dandruff.

You're welcome. $560 held so the pattern is still valid, however we'd need to drive up from here and then break through $590 with gusto volume-wise. Hard to see that happening absent Gox unGoxing itself.

On the plus side I now have a substitute in my lexicon for the F word  Smiley  

oh for gox sake!

Better still, most other drivers are going to have no idea what you mean when you yell at them to go Gox themselves and stop driving like old people Gox.



7. Post 5282992 (copy this link) (by Speedie) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.15h):

Quote from: ErisDiscordia on February 21, 2014, 03:09:30 PM
I know nothing about TA but is that a "head and shoulders" forming on 15m chart on stamp? That is supposed to be bullish I believe?

Inverse H&S, yes. We'd need to hold $560 and then break out above $590 with a surge in volume. Measured target in that scenario would be $650 calculated as $590 neckline + ($590 neckline - $530 head).

Thanks for the explanation! Now I feel a bit less dumb. Seeing there seems to have just been a 1K+ btc dump on stamp I assume it's safe to say that we didn't break out, but break down. So it was a fake Head & shoulders! Gotta watch out for that, you'll get dandruff.

You're welcome. $560 held so the pattern is still valid, however we'd need to drive up from here and then break through $590 with gusto volume-wise. Hard to see that happening absent Gox unGoxing itself.

On the plus side I now have a substitute in my lexicon for the F word  Smiley  

I see. So as long as we don't break below 560 (the shoulders) the pattern hasn't broken and the scenario might still play out. TBH I also don't see this as very likely but hey bottoms are due when the least amount of people expect them, aren't they? Smiley

Watching with interest. My feeling is that we might see the bottom soon, or that we might have already seen it at 530 (less likely than the first option imo). I'm interested to see how right/wrong my feeling is.

There might be more than a kernel of truth in the bolded part. I've been reading this thread with great interest during the recent turbulence, and it seems hardly anyone can come up with a bullish scenario for the possible Gox resolutions. Gox goes under = loss of confidence and sell-off. Gox allows limited withdrawals = partial loss of confidence plus selling of the released coins. Gox allows full unlimited withdrawals = selling of the released coins.

Makes you wonder if everyone is already positioned for a negative outcome. When everyone runs to the same side of the boat, it tends to capsize.



8. Post 5338552 (copy this link) (by Speedie) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.17h):

Quote from: yrtrnc on February 24, 2014, 02:54:51 PM
No place for emotions when trading BTC. Wink

FIFY.

Btw at the risk of being seen as a permabull when I try not to be a perma-anything, the poster of the 4H chart with MACD might want to zoom out a bit and look at the positive MACD divergence building up over the past 3-4 weeks (same 4H candles). Higher highs and lows on MACD, price not following. Those divergences can resolve into very strong moves.



9. Post 5365931 (copy this link) (by Speedie) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.19h):

This is interesting to me, the divergence between price highs (descending) and MACD highs (ascending) on the 4H chart continues to build. Any other TA guys notice this and wonder how it might play out in the face of the continued Gox BS? Normally it would suggest a strong chance of a large rally.





10. Post 5366385 (copy this link) (by Speedie) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.19h):

Quote from: wobber on February 25, 2014, 04:37:08 PM
This is interesting to me, the divergence between price highs (descending) and MACD highs (ascending) on the 4H chart continues to build. Any other TA guys notice this and wonder how it might play out in the face of the continued Gox BS? Normally it would suggest a strong chance of a large rally.

Image Removed


Large rally while we're on a stong downtrend? How?

Well unless your ultimate end-point is zero, downtrends have to end at some point. The same is true for uptrends unless you're headed to infinity.

MACD is, simplistically, a measure of momentum extrapolated from the difference between two different exponential moving averages. If momentum as measured by MACD is showing increasingly higher highs while price shows lower highs, it is called a bullish divergence. Such a divergence often hints at the end of the preceding downtrend, or at the very least that a strong counter-trend rally is possible.



11. Post 5561883 (copy this link) (by Speedie) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.24h):

Quote from: bassclef on March 07, 2014, 02:00:51 AM
"the world's a stage." - some famous lunatic

That would be Macbeth...

Tomorrow, and tomorrow, and tomorrow,
Creeps in this petty pace from day to day,
To the last syllable of recorded time;
And all our yesterdays have lighted fools
The way to dusty death. Out, out, brief candle!
Life's but a walking shadow, a poor player
That struts and frets his hour upon the stage
And then is heard no more. It is a tale
Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury
Signifying nothing. — Macbeth Act 5, Scene 5

Bzzzzzzzzzzzzt. It's the beginning of Shakespeare's "Seven Ages of Man" spoken as a monologue by Jacques in "As You Like It":

All the world's a stage,
And all the men and women merely players;
They have their exits and their entrances,
And one man in his time plays many parts,
His acts being seven ages. At first, the infant,
Mewling and puking in the nurse's arms.
Then the whining schoolboy, with his satchel
And shining morning face, creeping like snail
Unwillingly to school. And then the lover,
Sighing like furnace, with a woeful ballad
Made to his mistress' eyebrow. Then a soldier,
Full of strange oaths and bearded like the pard,
Jealous in honor, sudden and quick in quarrel,
Seeking the bubble reputation
Even in the cannon's mouth. And then the justice,
In fair round belly with good capon lined,
With eyes severe and beard of formal cut,
Full of wise saws and modern instances;
And so he plays his part. The sixth age shifts
Into the lean and slippered pantaloon,
With spectacles on nose and pouch on side;
His youthful hose, well saved, a world too wide
For his shrunk shank, and his big manly voice,
Turning again toward childish treble, pipes
And whistles in his sound. Last scene of all,
That ends this strange eventful history,
Is second childishness and mere oblivion,
Sans teeth, sans eyes, sans taste, sans everything.

Amusing how I can drop in on this thread and see everything from Shakespeare, to some random Japanese guy playing with trains, or even jiggling boobies and butts. It really is a one stop shop for all your cultural needs  Cheesy



12. Post 6074505 (copy this link) (by Speedie) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.33h):

Quote from: KeyserSoze on April 04, 2014, 08:15:07 PM
I've been spending millions of dollars over the last 3 years to perfect my Low Gravity Taco recipe. Once we get to the moon I will open a Bitcoin taco stand, kick back, and collect all your Bitcoins. Please help me name this business. My first thought is Tacoins Tago but even I know this stinks.

Shits for Bits
Taco Sato
Bit Bites

Etc etc

Edit: Assuming hard-shell tacos, Crypto Crunch would be an option.



13. Post 6163560 (copy this link) (by Speedie) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.35h):

Sitting right on the 50 week moving average. Interesting times. For posterity, the 200 week moving average is currently at around $150 Shocked