All posts made by Trilogy-AI in Bitcointalk.org's Wall Observer thread
1.
Post 30173772 (copy this link) (by Trilogy-AI) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.43h):
The chart I posted shows almost 4x more people are borrowing to bet that BTC will go up compared to people borrowing to bet that the price will go down.
I use this as a measure of sentiment and view it as bullish. But it can also go badly wrong. If the bears can fight against the tide and force the price downwards, they could start a cascade which would force the bulls out of their positions at a loss and trigger a massive price spike downwards.
Elwar brings up a good point, in that the exchange where this data is drawn from (BfX) is forcing corporate accounts to close. Corporate accounts tend to be short bitcoin. So this could just mean the underlying mix of players is changing with no change in sentiment. Hard to evaluate without further information.
That may be true, but compare that to a typical stock. The number of short investors is actually never *greater* than 25%. So by that measure, 25% betting that the price of BTC will go down is actually extremely bearish.
2.
Post 30176739 (copy this link) (by Trilogy-AI) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.43h):
Um, first of all: what does this have to do with Bitcoin Price Speculation?
And secondly, how could Fake News possibly the "biggest threat humankind will ever face"? How about global warming, nuclear war, or over population / famine, just to name a few?
3.
Post 30176948 (copy this link) (by Trilogy-AI) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.43h):
Um, first of all: what does this have to do with Bitcoin Price Speculation?
And secondly, how could Fake News possibly the "biggest threat humankind will ever face"? How about global warming, nuclear war, or over population / famine, just to name a few?
Well, for starters, global warming and overpopulation are fake news
So it's kind of a catch-all.
Lolz!
4.
Post 30177505 (copy this link) (by Trilogy-AI) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.43h):
5.
Post 30579475 (copy this link) (by Trilogy-AI) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.44h):
lines on graphs.
Ahem. I remember those.
Me too and they are looking very nice going forward.
And now, back to our regularly scheduled program...
Inverted head and shoulders forming?
6.
Post 30581522 (copy this link) (by Trilogy-AI) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.44h):
The average alt-right is an angry, unemployed, single white male. Mostly they are just losers. So a bit hard for them to have polyamorous relationships when they are incapable of having any relationship.
We need negative merits. Or just plus and minus buttons.
Actually, I thought that the idea of negative merits would be a bad thing; however, after reading your post, I just had an "ah ha moment."
If there were negative merits, you would need to feel so strongly about giving the negative merit that if you gave someone a negative merit, then it would remove 5 merits from your regular merits in order to give the one negative merit to the other person - then members would only employ such possible negative merit feature sparingly and after some considerable thought.
Excellent notion.
7.
Post 30583008 (copy this link) (by Trilogy-AI) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.45h):
Looks like consolidation time before the next move. 1 more bounce, 2..3? I'm not convinced we're out of the woods until good volume on 12k is broken. Perhaps a week or 2 away but this fickle wench surprises me near daily. Sentiment here is 10-15k till summer.
Price needs to see another test of recent lows, and a successful hold there.
8.
Post 30914888 (copy this link) (by Trilogy-AI) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.45h):
We goin down again?
Comon bulls. Don’t drop the ball.
It actually strengthens the market to have some retracements. If you are bullish BTC, these little dips should actually make you happy.
9.
Post 30917802 (copy this link) (by Trilogy-AI) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.45h):
From that time I have earned a lot more then I did with bitcoin mainly with XRP, ETH and lately also EOS. For me, bitcoin is for bartenders and cab drivers who react on technical developments with a several year delay.
What are the technical developments of XRP, ETH, and EOS that surpass Bitcoin? It would be nice to know now, rather than a year from now.
XRP is good for making fast and cheap transactions. Scales better than bitcoin. Far from decentralized, but it gets the job done if you are in a hurry.
[snip]
Paypal is good for making fast and cheap transactions. Scales better than bitcoin. Far from decentralized, but it gets the job done if you are in a hurry.
XRP is a joke.
Good one, cofefeGandalf.
And yes, XRP was designed for transaction clearing between big banks. So it's perfect for "fast and cheap transactions"... if you are a mega multi-national corporation.
Truth is, the only reason it is even on anyone's radar is because the price had a brief spike up.
10.
Post 31528489 (copy this link) (by Trilogy-AI) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.46h):
Trying to do tax planning. I have thousands of trades across a dozen exchanges in different countries in all sorts of alts. I am really struggling to figure it out so good fucking luck to the tax authority. It would take a CPA 3 months. I’m just going to have to make a best efforts estimate. Half the exchanges don’t even export trade records in .csv. Plus miner fees and dust lost in web wallets etc. Total mess.
Just a general question: why would someone make thousands of trades per year?
IMHO, it is self defeating in eventuality.
Personally, when I over trade, it a signal that I am about to lose a lot of money (for me).
In happened in 2000-2001 just before I had losses in 2002.
One year i had about a thou trades. It took me about three weeks to figure it all out on Turbotax.
Some trades looked really stupid when I looked at the totality of it all.
After that-no more of that nonsense.
Over a thousand trades per year means dozens of trades a week. At that frequency, it's likely you are getting thrashed by small fluctuations. But the real money to be made is putting on positions into substantial opportunities: major trend changes, double bottoms, head-and-shoulders, capitulation, etc. Then hodling for a long swing (long or short). And that supports a more detached trading psychology.
11.
Post 31595375 (copy this link) (by Trilogy-AI) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.46h):
Happy Monday Morning from Bali.
Buy orders are stacking up again on stamp. 78 million and counting. I'm feeling a 12K shot soon.
Coming out of thinner weekend trade so volume should support the recent trend. Looking for a new higher-high over local peak reached Feb 20.
12.
Post 31963364 (copy this link) (by Trilogy-AI) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.47h):
It’s just the little people left now.
Really? Seems like plenty of long timers still posting...
13.
Post 32187304 (copy this link) (by Trilogy-AI) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.48h):
In a world where Jews are waging a genocidal war against whites, only the most genocidal of whites will survive.
Don't even engage that fucktard. But at the very least, have some respect for the rest of us, and don't quote it
I don't give a shit if you are correct or not, but I do give a shit that you are making claims to know the future and that you believe that you are right about things... because perhaps you are smarter than everyone else?
I guess a sinking Bitcoin price brings out the best in us, huh?
14.
Post 32872347 (copy this link) (by Trilogy-AI) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.49h):
What has been going on in ETH land...are they ever going to get their shit together over there?
ETH has been over-performing BTC for a while now. The recent under-performance is just reverting that basis spread.
15.
Post 33014288 (copy this link) (by Trilogy-AI) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.49h):
It’s definitely not over but the bounce off $8200 was unexpectedly strong. I think that may have rocked some bears.
The optimism chart says we will break the downtrend in April.
And the financial downturn during the past two days will not affect this run up?
The correlation between financial markets and bitcoin has grown somewhat but it is still very weak. Badger for the most part does its own thing.
https://cointelegraph.com/news/so-is-there-a-correlation-between-bitcoin-and-stock-market-yes-but-noDoesn't look that way. The SP500 is down 100 points in the last two days. (That's massive, roughly equivalent to 1000 points on the Dow.) BTC prices? Almost no change, either up or down.
16.
Post 33016232 (copy this link) (by Trilogy-AI) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.49h):
Doesn't look that way. The SP500 is down 100 points in the last two days. (That's massive, roughly equivalent to 1000 points on the Dow.) BTC prices? Almost no change, either up or down.
I wonder about this. IF the stock market tanks....won't folk have 'less' discretionary money to toss at BTC and cryptos? Would it not just be wash?
If BTC buyers are doing so with excess returns from the market, then you'd expect a decline in equity markets to also trigger a decline in BTC. But we are not seeing any evidence of that (yet).
In fact, the reverse is actually more of what you are seeing. The big decline in BTC from December last year to local bottom on Feb 6 preceded the decline in the SP500, not the other way around.
17.
Post 33302682 (copy this link) (by Trilogy-AI) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.50h):
Starting to see some green again in my portfolio...
I have much more green in my garden for sure.
Yeah, the only green in cryptos would be BTC shorts on Bitcoin Futures (e.g. Chicago Mercantile Exchange).
18.
Post 33411955 (copy this link) (by Trilogy-AI) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.50h):
Not yet hit bottom. I think. Asia also never sets the trend. Only reinforces.
Unfortunately have to agree with you. Just look at the majors (like ETH) which have already made lower lows.
