All posts made by nrd525 in Bitcointalk.org's Wall Observer thread
1.
Post 3096600 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.15h):
US inflation rates have become much stabler over the past twenty years. Possibly due to the neoclassical economists winning out over the Keynesians.
http://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/historical-inflation-rates/Though I wouldn't be surprised to see a series of price shocks in the future due to resource shortages.
2.
Post 3658971 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.27h):
come on bears! please dont let me down! when it hit 630 sell like crazy!
edit: we are there now SELL SELL SELL
It's on.
3.
Post 3681153 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.28h):
The BTC-China premium peaked at 40% above MtGox several days ago and now it is only 3%.
I'm guessing the Chinese are having a different reaction to the boom going bust. As this is their first time, whereas a much larger percent of other investors have seen the 2011 and 2013 busts which led to longterm strong recoveries.
So the Chinese might be less certain that the market will recover (or surge to untold heights).
4.
Post 3901148 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.35h):
Things will get interesting if bitcoinica recovers its 64,000 BTC from MtGox.
And especially if the liquidator sells them at market value.
There is apparently a little progress being made.
Of course if you only use Technical Analysis, you should ignore this problem =)
5.
Post 4020058 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.41h):
China is low - 3000 yuan.
6.
Post 4990874 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.03h):
It's going back below 700.
7.
Post 4991133 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.03h):
Price changes quickly when the bids and asks are wiped out.
8.
Post 5130702 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.08h):
I'm a former bear buying cheap coins. Does this mean it goes down?
9.
Post 5134036 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.08h):
btc-e spiked down to 522, then back up according to bitcoinwisdom
10.
Post 5134124 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.08h):
Bitstamp is being sticky. Resisting btc-e and huobi's fall.
11.
Post 5134143 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.08h):
3 minutes ago - 200 BTC market buy order on BFX
12.
Post 5171332 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.10h):
According to my calculations there is either a serious issue with the Bitcoinbuilder.com website OR MtGox dollars are actually worth more than regular dollars (which is a sharp contrast from the previous situation).
Bitcoinbuilder is valuing MtGox BTC at 0.8 BTC -- or a ratio of 0.8.
The exchange rate is valuing MtGox BTC at 360/640 - 0.5625.
This means that MtGox US dollars are worth 0.8/ 0.5625 = 1.42 real dollars.
Now in practice it is slightly lower as there is a 2% fee on Bitcoinbuilder. But otherwise, why is this happening? Is my reasoning wrong? It looks like a massive arbitrage opportunity.
13.
Post 5253611 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.13h):
wow
14.
Post 5329360 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.17h):
Bitcoinbuilder price is down from 0.5 (before the announcement) to 0.33.
15.
Post 5350776 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.18h):
Bought 0.2 at $491 on BFX.
16.
Post 5515295 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.24h):
shorts on bfx are pushing down hard now. that means there's gonna be a squeeze.
could you dumb that down a bit for those of us who are unfamiliar with leverage and options?
seriously, bitcoin is the first time I have ever traded anything.
if 'shorts' are pushing down, does the 'squeeze' mean price spikes down? or up?
I really don't get this
Traders are borrowing coins on margin from Bitfinex and selling them into the market. These traders hope to buy them back cheaper in the future, return the borrowed coins, and pocket the difference. "Pushing down hard" means traders are borrowing additional coins and selling them into the market, thereby helping to push down the price.
There are presently 8,116 BTC on loan to short traders at Bitfinex. These traders are paying on average 27% per year in BTC to borrow them, and at some point in time they
will buy them back because they aren't theirs to keep. If the price goes up instead of down, some may chose to buy back to minimize their loss, thereby adding fuel to the rally. At this point, other short traders may be running out of margin (they now have insufficient collateral to cover their mark-to-market losses on their short position) and Bitfinex will
force them to cover, squeezing people out of their positions.
I'm not sure if this is true. People can borrow BTC for a very long time, especially if they are paying 27%/year and so long as they are either making money from the trading or through other activities. If they are making money from shorting they are likely to increase their positions (just like how the people going long have been increasing their positions). The people who have long positions aren't forced to close them, so why should the shorters?
17.
Post 5517578 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.24h):
BFX sentiment index has gone rather bullish. Could be a good counter-indicator, as when it was negative we went from 400 to 700.
18.
Post 5540632 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.24h):
BFX USD loan rates going up (from 0.08 to 0.20%).
19.
Post 5540776 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.24h):
BFX USD loan rates going up (from 0.08 to 0.20%).
total loan outstanding only increased by $600k. I think the loan book got a lot thinner since the day it flash crashed to 102 on BTC-E.
You have a good point.
The tricky part about the loan outstanding statistics is that they lag. They might only be generated once an hour. So when the market moves fast, they aren't an ideal indicator. But currently they're pretty useful - and most people are using the flash return rate so small changes to demand have a big impact on interest rates.
20.
Post 5581419 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.25h):
Somebody is trying to reinforce the Weekend Dip myth =)
21.
Post 5777271 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.27h):
Does anyone have a hint as to why BTC-e is higher than Bitstamp?
I am assuming counter plays by people watching the ltc raising with little or no concern for bitcoin
Or bitfinex people moving their money from BTC to LTC.
22.
Post 5821723 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.28h):
Why hasn't this decline reversed itself yet?
23.
Post 5821776 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.28h):
So the MtGox news caused price to go up - which is opposite of what I'd expect (fewer bitcoins = more valuable bitcoins). On the other hand, it could be seen as a vote of confidence in bitcoin infrastructure, confidence, and a mild wealth effect (richer bitcoiners = more money to spend in bitcoin economy).
24.
Post 5924072 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.29h):
The last ban was more fun =(
25.
Post 5938147 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.29h):
It is very hard to tell but this ban rumor may not be a rumor. I'm 50/50 on it. It might end up being a lot of restrictions, not a complete ban.
26.
Post 6040137 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.32h):
What Chinese exchange do people think is most relevant? Maybe this should be a poll question!
I've been following Huobi. The OKCoin volume looks more suspicious - doesn't vary as much as it should.
27.
Post 6040260 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.32h):
Still 16 Mio in USD swaps on Bitfinex. I gues they will provide a great help to break the 400$ support.
These USD swaps are for long positions.
28.
Post 6040413 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.32h):
Still 16 Mio in USD swaps on Bitfinex. I gues they will provide a great help to break the 400$ support.
These USD swaps are for long positions.
If these long positions get squeezed they will provide downward momentum.
I guess a lot of people have set their stop loss around 400$.
If you are right the order book will make up for some of it (7060 BTC down to 399), but as little as 20%.
I think some traders are more cautious. For instance, my position gets liquidated considerably below $400.
29.
Post 6040744 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.32h):
Bitstamp decent 10k wall down to 400.
30.
Post 6045192 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.32h):
If the goal of Chinese is to get money out of the country with bitcoin, then closing the exchanges should cause the RMB price to go up (and have a premium over USD/EUR). But if the goal is speculation, then it will go down.
31.
Post 6045234 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.32h):
Bitfinex interest rate being so high still is so concerning....
It's a bad indicator. There is very little USD volume that isn't at the variable rate. So a small change in demand has a disproportionate influence on the rate.
So high demand isn't 0.22% interest - it is 0.5-1%.
32.
Post 6057506 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.32h):
April 2 - Second Market makes its first major sale of bitcoins. Around 1700. They haven't sold more than 150 in a day before.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=337486.0
33.
Post 6059674 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.32h):
I´m glad for the investors on secondmarket that they can now liquidate their positions and are no longer trapped.
Sellin 1700
BTC was a nice first move. I´m lookin forward to see more of this in the near future.
link?
So out of the thousands and thousands that they bought to date, only a very small percentage of investors wanted out....
Looks like they bought 4000 today. Which would be the most ever bought in a single day according to the thread.
42,400,000/43.07 = 98444
http://www.bitcointrust.co
34.
Post 6060387 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.32h):
can we ban fonzie yet? I know most have him on ignore and I do too, but he is LITERALLY in every single thread today spouting nonsense. I know he posts normally now and then, but today is ridiculous and everyone keeps quoting him. he must be short and trying to get the market to crash any way he can.
How is the possible liquidation of long positions on Bitfinex, and thus a corresponding decline in the market, "nonsense"?
btw - I'm long.
35.
Post 6073687 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.33h):
I like the convergence in price between Bitstamp, BTC-E, Bitfinex, and Huobi.
Good job arbitragers!
I wonder if this means anything?
36.
Post 6099632 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.33h):
Martingalers lose their entire stash all the time on just-dice.com. I'm not sure what the record is for losing 50/50 bets in a row, but it is something very high like 15+.
37.
Post 6099919 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.33h):
The volume on stamp is tiny. it's not big on btc-e.
Like it or not Huobi and Chinese exchanges are dictating the price movements. There are plenty that don't want to sleep on BTC. it's 21:37 in China as i write. As others have pointed out it's a national holiday.
I think there is about a 3 hour window before a bigger dump starts.
Just my opinion...
Bobby Lee, BTC-China CEO, says that most of the Chinese volume is faked.
38.
Post 6150288 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.34h):
Australia bans bitcoin
39.
Post 6163459 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.35h):
Stamp $12 below Huobi. Wow!
I was wondering if this would happen. If Chinese cannot buy bitcoins, then they'll go up in value (because they can still use them to take money out of the country) - much like the old MtGox premium.
40.
Post 6163915 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.35h):
This one year anniversary celebration of the April 10, 2013 crash is getting a bit too out of control.
41.
Post 6165915 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.36h):
Bitfinex BTC swaps over 10k. I'm not sure if that's happened before.
Bitfinex Sentiment Index is 1:1 which is bearish. I think its lowest value is around 0.7 (or 1:1.4).
You have to look at how the page source to get the exact value (currently 50.08 bullish to 49.92 bearish).
42.
Post 6254197 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.38h):
BTC-E wall bearish
BFX wall bullish
Bitstamp wall - maybe mildly bearish
Overall these three combined walls look bearish.
43.
Post 6270895 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.39h):
Yesterday I remarked that the net sum of the BFX, BTC-e, and Bitstamp walls was bearish. Bitcoin fell 4-5%.
Currently Bitstamp - bullish
BFX - neutral - maybe a tiny bit bearish
BTC-e - bullish in the short-range, bearish in the longer range
Overall slightly bullish. Probably trend reversal incoming, but it won't necessarily last that long (eg. bounce to 510-520).
Note: I'm a total amateur. Really I'd like to hear what other people think about the walls. They're aren't entirely fake =)
44.
Post 6300096 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.39h):
Shameless cross-post to advertise my recent findings:
I found some results from the correlation of
(previous_month;next_month) pairs. In other words, how the percentage gain in the previous month correlates with the gain of the coming month.
1. The linear trend was with positive slope, so in general it goes up the more, the more it has already gone up mo/mo.
y = 0,2394x + 0,0672
R˛ = 0,05661
2. If it has crashed -22% or more in the previous month, the next month has never been better than +76%.
3. If it has crashed -48% or more, the next month has also always been negative!
4. If it has gone up at least +6% and not more than +255% (LOL) in the previous month, the next month has never been worse than -32%.
5. About zero gain last month can lead to 500% gain next month (or -50% loss).
2014-5-19: Our Last Month has been -0.083 == -17%Currently with prices floating around $500, BTC prices are about 55% down from the ATH of $1150-ish (over 4.5 months ago)... and about zero gain in the last month. So your findings are telling us we will NOT go any lower than $250, but NO higher than $2500 within the next 30 days? or do we measure from $340 to say we will go no higher than $1700 and no lower than $170.
Something seems very incomplete with this supposed mathematical look at past performance to describe potential future performance. - like it's missing something.
The important findings in my opinion were:
- If bitcoin has tanked heavily in the previous month (-22% or more), don't buy, it's a knife
- If it has gained 6%-255%, buy, because it has never been destroyed afterwards ("only" lost 32% max)
Now it is impossible to say what will happen, based on historical results, because the variance is too high.
There is a probability table prediction competition going on in the same thread.
This is a very low R^2. You are predicting 5.7% of the outcome (possibly because bitcoin's walk is primarily random). So what this means is that all of your predictions will have huge error ranges. With a large error range you might predict a 10% gain on average, but actually it will range from -30% to 40% and may have only a 60% chance of being greater than zero.
45.
Post 6300748 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.39h):
This is a very low R^2. You are predicting 5.7% of the outcome (possibly because bitcoin's walk is primarily random). So what this means is that all of your predictions will have huge error ranges. With a large error range you might predict a 10% gain on average, but actually it will range from -30% to 40% and may have only a 60% chance of being greater than zero.
If you don't believe me now because of a low R^2, why don't you believe the exponential trendline which has R^2 = 0.94?
Yes, I know it's very low but in this kind of game where you can use leverage if you want etc., every edge is an opportunity. Unless it is purely random, which I don't believe. I intend to run the same analysis for different lengths of time, perhaps to find better results.
One of the fascinating things about Bitcoin is that a random month is positive with 60% probability and only 40% is negative.
I've been leaning towards trading the exponential line =)
Though I'm trying to use a value-based approach (to the extent that it is possible - eg lots of guesswork). So I'll also evaluate the size and quality of the bitcoin community, start-ups, media attention, regulation, and competition.
46.
Post 6331884 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.39h):
Does anyone know where trollboxarchive.com went? Is it offline? It is showing a "registered at namecheap" default page.
47.
Post 6427379 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.41h):
Reddit thread with some well-written English comments by a OKCoin rep:
http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/243j3p/how_are_huobi_okcoin_deposit_funding_currently/It's a good explanation of the recharge code system. The only thing I don't understand is how they will be able to receive money from the recharge code sellers if all the banks stop working with them. They could work with cash, but that seems unlikely.
48.
Post 6429499 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.41h):
Not that every person here uses the almighty USD, here is a calculator to show how much we/you are losing each year.
http://www.dollartimes.com/calculators/inflation.htmEdit:
$10.00 in 1914 had the same buying power as $233.05 in 2014.
Annual inflation over this period was 3.20%.
Grossly underestimating inflation. Clearly hedonically adjusted numbers. Try a weighted basket of wheat, oil and steel some time.
The inflation index both over-estimates and under-estimates. It misses the deflationary impact of technology - sometimes by a factor of a thousand.
49.
Post 6443506 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.41h):
Based on my research,
I don't believe we will see 435 ever again (Bitstamp). If someone is willing to bet (I naturally expect much better than 1:1 for me), PM please.
Chart1 &
Chart2.
This is just the 2013-7-18 again. No looking back (when you least expect it).
I had estimated that probability for 435 holding should be 10% in general public's eyes, but I thought it was 20%. So I would have taken 7:1 odds for me, and lost almost straight away.
This whole controversy boils down to
-people assuming that all bets are done at 1:1 odds (most person to person bets are done this way, but not all)
-the large gap between "better than 1:1" and "7:1"
Making fun and/or insulting someone into taking a bet doesn't work. Trying to have the bet setup in a way that grossly favors your side and then insulting the other party for refusing to take the bet is the classic, but ineffective tactic.
In general it is unlikely that you will be able to organize a bet online with someone you haven't met nor trust (the bet against Bitcoin Savings and Trust was a big exception - but it had value for both the better who was going to win, and Trendon who was hoping to prop-up his ponzi).
50.
Post 6698131 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.44h):
btc-e wall is very bullish.
51.
Post 6863948 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.45h):
Guess what: most intelligent people understand that government and public services are a good thing, and that taxes are necessary to have them.
That's condescending as fuck. You're trying to imply that, agreeing with public services and charging taxes to fund them, is a prerequisite for being intelligent. That's absolute and utter bullshit.
BTW people please don't think he represents academics in general. I'm one and I take great offense.
Fact Check: see how Libertarian candidates do in US elections. Most people vote for the Democrats and Republicans - parties that support taxes and public services.
Second fact check: the majority of US professors are liberals.
http://www.insidehighered.com/news/2012/10/24/survey-finds-professors-already-liberal-have-moved-further-left#sthash.A8ga6kGk.dpbs
52.
Post 6882187 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.46h):
Also I do not believe that price is a random process (certainly not for large-scale motions like these). The large drops in the past, and most of the rallies, all had obvious external causes. The Brownian model (with variable variance) is merely the only "technical analysis" model (i.e. model that does not have external factors as inputs) that seems to be validated in practice. Which means that, indeed, I do not see any reason to believe in TA.
The reason to follow TA is because others believe in it. It is irrational to ignore the perspectives of other major market actors.
I do think there are tons of silly TA charts that are meaningless - but if there are investors with enough money that act on them - then they matter.
53.
Post 6884980 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.46h):
It looks like the Bitfinex wall (also around 2k) was eaten or partially eaten. I see a surge in volume on Bitfinex to 2.2k on the 1h candles.
54.
Post 6885379 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.46h):
It looks like someone might be splitting a wall 50/50 Bitfinex and Bitstamp. Same thing for the 530 wall.
55.
Post 7076874 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.49h):
Looks like a Bitfinex sell - 4k volume vs 2k on Bitstamp.
56.
Post 7077450 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.49h):
The Bitfinex USD swap orders are always drying up. Why? Because 90-95% of the money is being lent out at the variable rate. The swap rate is very inelastic. A small increase in demand triggers a large increase in the rate (and a small drop in demand causes a large decrease in the rate).
57.
Post 7099741 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.50h):
Quick poll: Is there anyone here except MatTheCat, Jorge, Igorr who does not consider the log trendline to be indicative of future performance, and the price action of the past month or two to be reversion to the trendline?
Me and I'm pretty much all-in (not a huge position - but the majority of my liquid assets).
There is no way the log trend is going to hold. I'm predicting a relatively slower growth rate (with wide variance - but definitely below 1000%/year).
58.
Post 7257976 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.52h):
Bitfinex USD swaps at 23.5 million and there is actually another 370k available at or below the flash return rate (0.194%).
It looks like available swap grows rapidly - so long as the interest rate is above 0.15%/day, people transfer lots of money to the site. This is very bullish. I could see the available swap growing 5-20%/week if high interest rates are maintained.
59.
Post 7258741 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.52h):
Why is all this bitfinex swap stuff relevant? I thought the whole theory behind the current rally was that it was neither bitstamp nor huobi that was leading the rally but that it was due to offline whales accumulate huge blocks and due to commercial usage, because there is clearly not enough volume on exchanges to be supporting the rally.
It probably isn't the major cause behind the rally. But it is a significant factor. $24 million in swaps is 37,000 bitcoins (or possibly more if the cost basis for the long positions is below the market price which it probably is). And in the past, the number of USD swaps has grown faster than the Bitcoin price (eg. 2013) which means that it may continue to be a source of demand.
By contrast, the Bitcoin Investment Trust with their 105k bitcoins looks like they've really slowed down their purchases (of course that could change).
Offline whales might be accumulating large blocks, but we don't have data on that. If we did - I'd be very happy to see it!
60.
Post 7262690 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.52h):
BTC used to do 100-200K per day of volume on mtgox. The tiny volume of 10-20K per day on bitstamp during rally is pathetic and nothing in comparison to previous volume levels. Even huobi (whatever portion is real), stamp, and btce combined are nothing compared to previous combined volume levels. A $10M increase in swaps is nothing compared to an $8Bn market cap. Obvious some other force is moving the market. If I was using Stamp's volume in my technical analysis, I would not even be here - I would have abandoned bitcoin.
I agree that the lack of volume is very disturbing. I'm skeptical about the level of off the market transactions. Can this volume be identified in the blockchain? Why aren't we reading stories (with solid facts) about it? I know people like to keep things private - but there are a ton of researchers who like to dig things up (ex. the research done into the original Silk Road volume), and at least some bitcoin millionaires who like publicity.
61.
Post 7262961 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.52h):
There might be an increase in holding. Though it'd be hard to prove. I know I'm holding more.
62.
Post 7275986 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.52h):
I use Bitfinex, but the Bitstamp exchange complaints so far seem relatively minor.
Bitfinex has done a number of weird things as well over time including the old site's slogan which was nonsensical (something like "nobody went bankrupt before taking profits"), to the listed "APR" for swaps which was not compounded when it should have been (a big deal if the interest rate is 0.5%/day - this isn't 182.5% APR, it is 517%) - an error that seems equal to Bitstamp's fee problems.
Now Bitfinex has done a good job fixing their bugs and making improvements. And that's why I use it.
63.
Post 7277431 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.52h):
This slow and steady decline is very different from the typical flash crash.
64.
Post 7277610 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.52h):
So is this all based on the Silk Road coins moving theory?
65.
Post 7277644 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.52h):
Icbit futures still have a 12% premium for Sept 15.
66.
Post 7277665 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.52h):
The China premium is back. $20
67.
Post 7278311 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.52h):
Order walls - btccharts.com
68.
Post 7278841 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.52h):
69.
Post 7279072 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.52h):
So bid for all of them. If the market price goes down more than 7 dollars, forfeit the deposit and don't pay for them. I could see this taking a while...
70.
Post 7279146 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.52h):
People are selling the rumor and the news (Silk Road coins).
71.
Post 7279302 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.52h):
Bitfinex premium spiked to $22, back down to $18.
72.
Post 7279324 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.52h):
I could buy coins on Coinbase, sell them on Bitfinex and make about $10/each (on a $17 spread).
73.
Post 7279431 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.52h):
The Bitfinex longs/shorts are staying relatively constant which is remarkable given the $10-$20 premium on the site. It also looks like there haven't been significant liquidations (I think they've hidden this - you used to be able to see past trades and forced liquidations).
74.
Post 7279881 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.52h):
Just made around $15-$20/BTC arbitraging Bitfinex and Coinbase.
75.
Post 7279935 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.52h):
Hmm, what are the odds that Coinbase cancels my bitcoin orders? I may have made a mistake trying to arbitrage them with Bitfinex. (I sold several coins on Bitfinex, and bought them on Coinbase for delivery in 4 days).
76.
Post 7316586 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.53h):
Seems pretty negative. Could be really negative if someone pulls it off and publicizes the results.
http://www.coindesk.com/eavesdropping-attack-can-unmask-60-bitcoin-clients/
77.
Post 7317374 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.53h):
What? Bitcoin isn't anonymous? Oh noes!
Sheesh. What rock have you been under for the past 5 years?
For all your public financial transactions there is bitcoin. For everything else there is monero.
It's very different saying bitcoin isn't anonymous (and this is debatable - there may be a public ledger but can you find any of my bitcoin addresses?), and proving it by uploading a spreadsheet with a couple hundred thousand IPs who have been illegally gambling or are tied to porn sites. If this is true, someone could publicize a couple hundred thousand bitcoin accounts.
Though on second thought I'm not sure how much an IP address tells you about some people. Mine gives my general location - but it's a large city. And my IP address changes every month or so last time I checked. Also - I've got roommates.
78.
Post 7319154 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.53h):
YOu also know that volume on these chinese exchanges is sometimes exaggerated and not reported correctly? I'm not sure what the chinese numbers really are if they are fake.
This claim has been repeated thousands of times in the bitcoin media and forums, but never with substantive evidence. I have found hints that some of OKCoin's transactions (but not Huobi's) may be fake, but those won't reach 10% of that site's volume.
A sufficient explanation for their large numbers is that the Chinese sites charge zero fees, so they attract more clients and each client generates more volume. That is not "fake volume". Moreover, as several sources pointed out, China already had a large population of amateur market speculators -- something that seems absent in the West.
On the other hand I suspect that a large fraction of the volume at the "Western" exchanges is merely arbitrage with China. If arbitragers generate (say) 25k BTC of trade per day on each side of the "frontier", it would be 50% of the Western volume but only 15% of the Chinese one, so the disparity would only increase.
Are you saying that Bobby Lee, CEO of BTC China, isn't credible?
He has said they inflate volume. You can see Youtube videos of him at Bitcoin conferences discussing it.
Also OK Coin volume looks fake to me. It lacks the variation in volume that all other exchanges display.
79.
Post 7354983 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.53h):
Wouldn't it be more fun to sell 200% of the bitcoins using leverage? You could make $15 billion when it drops to zero.
80.
Post 7384735 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.53h):
$4.8 million demand (unfulfilled) for USD swap at Bitfinex at the flexible rate (currently 0.19%/day and falling). For long date ranges (20-30 days). If they wanted short-term swap they could get it as $400k is available.
Somebody is trying to buy all the bitcoins!
81.
Post 7389502 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.53h):
Got my Coinbase coins. Arbitraging Bitfinex for $20/BTC worked. Funny how that BFX premium (over Bitstamp) didn't last long. It's pretty much at zero now.
82.
Post 7390795 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.53h):
It's a bubble because Bitcoin tends to overshoot its value. Either that or it was massively underpriced before the bubble. In both cases, the market isn't accurate. The only way the market is accurate is if Bitcoin increases in value because it increases in value (eg. the bubble causes publicity that increases demand for bitcoin and the number of bitcoin projects).
You also have frenzied buying and people borrowing money at 1%/day interest just to invest.
83.
Post 7408761 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.54h):
I voted 110%, but I really think 101-105% (of the market price when the bids must be submitted - which could vary from the market price on the day of who wins by a lot)
84.
Post 7422709 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.54h):
(Source:
http://bfxdata.com/)
The USD swap demand at Bitfinex has been extremely high recently. People want to borrow $5 million or possibly even more.
I'm not sure if this is real demand, as it occasionally disappears without being fulfilled. Would people be crazy enough to try and influence the price of bitcoins by posting a fake swap demand wall? I doubt it. Also the Bitfinex swaps have been acting very strange with very short spikes in demand - probably due to people trying to influence the swap rate.
85.
Post 7439110 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.54h):
Bitfinex USD swap demand up to $8.5 million (at 0.19-0.2%/day), and there is another $5 million at 0.1% - 0.18% day.
86.
Post 7454641 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.54h):
It's a bit of a paradox. There might be a strong correlation between the search trend and the price, but it seems to breaking these past several months as the price has been higher than the search trends warrant.
87.
Post 7478032 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.54h):
Just-dice is getting shut down due to Canadian regulations on bitcoins. Could be interesting if some of the 30-40k bitcoins get cashed out. Or maybe they'll just move to other dice sites.
88.
Post 7498868 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.54h):
I still think BFX interest rates on a longterm downward trend (to 0.05%/day), but there are constant market shocks that cause them to increase. Like China banning/not banning and then the big recovery from $340 to $600.
The guarantee doesn't hold that much value for me as a lender as they could still get hacked or go bankrupt. I value more the fact that they've developed their internal order book and are more immune to problems from being disconnected from MtGox or Bitstamp than during 2013. So now instead of relying upon two companies (and sets of servers) - you are only relying on one.
They've also been acting relatively cautiously and pragmatic. Decreasing the maximum leverage ratio. Adding Darkcoin to the exchange but not allowing margin trading (I personally don't think Darkcoin is that important - but at least they didn't allow margin trading). Getting rid of the "myself" guy (who was trouble). Moving their bank to Taiwan to get out of China.
89.
Post 7535306 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.55h):
I've been watching the Bitfinex swaps for a while - and now everyone is finally catching on!
One pet theory - that the amount of swaps is heavily influenced by the flash rate of return. So there is a lag between BTC going up and the swaps increasing. In fact the amount of swaps will peak at or even after the peak in the market price. This can lead to a massive over-supply and plummeting flash return rate (made worse by the fact that the rate takes time to fall, so it cannot adjust to the new market lack of demand).
Another theory - the amount of available swaps (not the same as swaps in use - but correlated) will increase at 5-20%/week so long as the flash return rate is above 0.15%. Ex. we're up around 6% over June 19 (which is slightly less growth than I expected given the very health flash return rate- we might be hitting the limits of how much money investors are willing to put into BFX). I think if we sustained a flash return rate of over 0.20% for two weeks, we'd see 12-20%/week growth in swaps.
As the swaps are able to grow rapidly (and faster than the BTC price), BFX swaps will become increasingly important in supporting the BTC price.
90.
Post 7552841 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.55h):
Do the winners have to pay? If the price falls more than $67/BTC then forfeiting the deposit can make sense IF there is no legal obligation to pay.
Nightmare scenario involves winners with low bids triggering a major decline in the price which leads to the winners forfeiting their deposit and a second round of bids or someone getting the coins for very cheap. Hmm, I guess the second round of bids won't happen unless there aren't enough bidders - so that's unlikely.
91.
Post 7593579 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.56h):
This is probably a great day for pump and dump (not sure if that strategy ever works - but if it does - it'd work today).
92.
Post 7604717 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.56h):
I think bid pooling (by Second Market and others) has an interesting bias of encouraging low bids. In an extreme case, you would assume that a bid pool might only bid for one block - as such, you could bid as low as you wanted for 1-50 BTC and the average bid for the entire block could still be high enough to get it.
I'm assuming that the submitted bid will be the sum of the bids. So if two people bid for half of the blocks and together submit a single bid for 3000 BTC, if one person bids 500 and the other bids 700 - you end up with a bid of 600.
What this means is that low-bidders gain advantage from the bid pool, whereas high-bidders are hurt.
Now this effect is alleviated if you have enough demand. But it is an interesting case that could cause bid poolers to bid even lower than regular bidders (who were trying to bid under-market).
That said - I'm still guessing the entire 29-30k BTC were sold for an average of for 1-4% above market value (though the market value could be anywhere from Thursday through Friday 5pm).
93.
Post 7606928 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.56h):
So far this price increase hasn't caused Bitfinex swap rates to increase. You can still get swap for as little as 0.165%/day. This is different from the rate spikes that we commonly see.
94.
Post 7607060 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.56h):
So far this price increase hasn't caused Bitfinex swap rates to increase. You can still get swap for as little as 0.165%/day. This is different from the rate spikes that we commonly see.
Before all the swaps on bitfinex was on 30day minimum but it seems to have changed?
No. Minimum is 2 days. Maximum is 30 days.
95.
Post 7607110 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.56h):
So far this price increase hasn't caused Bitfinex swap rates to increase. You can still get swap for as little as 0.165%/day. This is different from the rate spikes that we commonly see.
Probably a lot of swaps closing out that were a little under water, happy to break even or make a small profit.
Unlikely. Would you close a long position when it was going through the roof?
I'm thinking people are going long with money that was just sitting around. A small number may have taken out loans in advance. And this is a joint effort across the markets (several minutes ago Bitstamp was consisently $1-$3 ahead of Bitfinex).
Also people might be acting cautious as there isn't much real news on the auction.
96.
Post 7607138 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.56h):
Bitfinex swaps up $800k in the past 12 hours. Then down $160k from the peak (so some evidence of profit taking) as of 40 minutes ago.
97.
Post 7608876 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.56h):
BFX swaps now up $1 million in the past 15 hours without increasing the flash return rate. Looks like people reserved the swaps in advance.
98.
Post 7661709 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.57h):
More evidence that alt-coins aren't doing well - Dogecoin is getting destroyed. Fell as low as 31 satoshis, now at 35.
99.
Post 7693255 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.57h):
bfxdata.com shows USD swaps just jumped by 1.5 million to 30.5 million
best swap offer now 0.4475 %/day
Beginner question: does this mean that it's now expensive to go long?
This short spike happens as much as once a week. In this case it was someone who probably didn't realize that a bug (where they could borrow swap for a short period without paying interest) has been fixed.
The Flash Return Rate barely moved (and thus most people are unaffected).
100.
Post 7693291 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.57h):
bfxdata.com shows USD swaps just jumped by 1.5 million to 30.5 million
best swap offer now 0.4475 %/day
Beginner question: does this mean that it's now expensive to go long?
Yes. And it means that a lot of traders on Finex are either a crazy gamblers or super bullish on BTC. Or more likely both.
BTC swap rate demand is at 0.0016% (for going short on BTC)
USD swap rate demand is at 0.175% (for going long on BTC)
That's a
hundred fold difference in interest rates. Incredible. Has it always been like this?
It's almost always been like this. There have been a couple times that BTC rates went up enough to be worthwhile lending. I have no clue why people are lending money out at 2% APR on Bitfinex - as that assumes a very low risk of hacking/fraud/regulation/bankruptcy. I'd estimate this risk at least at 5% or more.
101.
Post 7697229 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.57h):
July 4th -> US patriotism hoopla -> USA #1 -> Fed Reserve is GREAT -> Bitcoin is terrorism -> Weekend Dip
102.
Post 7773399 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.58h):
Has the Bitfinex Sentiment Index ever NOT been Very Bullish?
Yes. It even has gone slightly bearish, but only during the strongest bear markets.
It has never been Very Bearish.
103.
Post 8030350 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.00h):
Do people realize that Ecuador is not a part of China?
104.
Post 8337728 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.04h):
Volume on Gox is at an All Time Low. SELL.
105.
Post 8406211 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.06h):
I'm wondering if with the recent decline in LTC (and pretty much all alt-coins) if alt coins at an all-time low (for the past year or so) in terms of total crypto market share? Is there any website that tracks that?
106.
Post 8423888 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.06h):
Looks like BTC is 95% of the crypto-currency market in terms of market cap. Source: my rough adding of coinmarketcap.com
107.
Post 8613245 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.09h):
At this rate Canadians might be able to get <$500 CAD coins.
Lack of fundamentals. Strange btc-e bot war. Why doesn't it stop? I'm very confused.
108.
Post 8694188 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.10h):
I'm lending out most of my BTC at 0.19%/day on Bitfinex. Somebody thinks the price is going down. Though the fact that they're borrowing my BTC at 10 times the market rate makes me wonder how smart they are?
109.
Post 8863690 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.13h):
So is the point of resistance around 444?
110.
Post 8863764 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.13h):
Growing gap between BTC-E and the other two main USD markets.
http://bfxdata.com/compare/btc.php
111.
Post 8883060 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.14h):
It's interesting that this bear market hasn't triggered a flash crash on BTC-E or Bitfinex due to forced liquidations.
112.
Post 9006838 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.16h):
As there are cryptocurrencies that get value from destroyed bitcoins, there should be one that gets value from crashes! Bearcoin.
113.
Post 9070901 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.18h):
Anyone else having problems with btccharts.com crashing due to Flash crashing?
114.
Post 9071058 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.18h):
Do you think BTC will have a dramatic mini flash crash (high volume, loss of 5-10% in maybe 1-2 hours) before it reaches the bottom? Or will it just have a small bounce that reverses the long-term slow decline, and then turns into a slow recovery?
115.
Post 9087244 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.19h):
Are the deposits on circle are holded in BTC or fiat?
depends what you deposit i guess.
My English is lacking, hm?
Another trial:
I hold BTC or Fiat on a circle Account? You know what I mean? I guess BTC, but want to be sure.
it is my understanding that circle accounts can hold BTC or Fiat(of any color), and you are free to switch back and forth at anytime, I'm guessing they won't let you do bitcoin trading with this account... its probably part of their policy that it the service should not be used to day trade bitcoin.
I don't want to trade, I only want to send a medium amount of Bitcoins to my Circle Account. It irritates me that there are coming up messages like "you received xxxx.xx $ and not xx BTC. So it's only a reference value in USD and in conclusion nothing more than another form of a Bitcoin wallet or are they converting BTC to USD on entrance?
i have no idea how they balance their books.
but yes the site will always display your balance in $ terms, they feel its easier for new users to see their balance in their local currency.
must be depressing sending bitcoin over there today and watching your balance fall 9%
Adam:
From your various responses, it seems that you do NOT have a Circle account. Surely, I am NO Circle expert because I only started using it at the end of September, and on October 1, I transferred $500 into my Circle account (which translated into 1.29263 BTC. A I type, my previous $500 is valued at $441; however, the amount of BTC has NOT changed, only the dollar equivalency of my BTC holdings.
I have NOT yet seen any option to hold my Circle account value in fiat rather than holding in BTC - possibly Circle could add that feature later - though I have my doubts that they are going to allow such (b/c the account would convert into a trading account).
Actually, before I opened up my account with Circle, I was wondering how Circle was going to prevent people from trading with their zero fees policy, and it appears that their outrageously low weekly limits (starting at $2,500 per week non-immediate transfer or $500 per week immediate transfer); effectively make it difficult to engage in any kind of high quantity or high frequency trading, and their weekly limitations also make these accounts very small potatoes... Even Coinbase has higher weekly and daily limitations than Circle.... My Coinbase allows for $1,000 per week immediate and $50,000 per week, and the Coinbase limits are constantly updating in order to cause less restrictions.
Note that my Circle account is brand new and there is a disclaimer that my weekly limits may increase with the passage of time - supposedly as I become a more longer term account holder (we will see?).
Circle has fees. Their price is 0.5% above market.
116.
Post 9096188 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.20h):
There is a large wall on Cavirtex as well. I don't use that exchange and haven't followed it, but I know their volume isn't that large. So a 3000 BTC wall is pretty huge for them. It is almost equal to the 30 day volume (3200). By contrast the Bitstamp wall is only 1/5 of their 30 day volume.
Could the BearWhale be Canadian?
117.
Post 9098012 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.20h):
Circle currently charging $303.70/BTC.
118.
Post 9100409 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.20h):
One person bought 2847 of the wall at 300.
119.
Post 9100463 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.20h):
Bitfinex is going crazy. 328 vs 300 (Bitstamp).
120.
Post 9156092 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.22h):
Bad for BTC. BTC wouldn't have increased by 100x during the 2008/2009 recession. People have less wealth (and a greater probability of losing their job), then they are less likely to take risky investments.
121.
Post 9156431 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.22h):
My dating/relationship advice is try okcupid. Scientific dating powered by statistics. You answer hundreds (or more) of questions to find a compatible match. It isn't perfect, but lets you eliminate a lot of bad choices.
122.
Post 9565817 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.32h):
Fiat is designed to lose value, 2 percent in some countries, 2 1/2 in others. Bitcoin not.
Bitcoin too, until the year 2150 or something ! Although you are right that bitcoin has monetary mass inflation until then, while many central banks have price inflation targets. The difference between both is (at constant velocity) given by economic growth.
The danger is altcoins. Altcoins = infinite inflation potential for crypto-currencies as a class. Though so far they aren't catching on.
123.
Post 10073626 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.45h):
Has Bitfinex ever maintained a 3% price premium over the Chinese exchanges for this long? Currently a $10.20 premium over Huobi.
124.
Post 12340382 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.25h):
Today I discovered that I had been working with a misunderstanding of the “no fees” policy of Circle.
For some reason, I had thought that there was a buy sell spread; however, recently, I had been considered receiving regular approximately monthly payments in Bitcoin; however, I considered that the regular monthly receipt of Bitcoin was going to likely exceed my ability to spend those bitcoin during that month. Accordingly, I realized that if I were to end up receiving the BTC on a regular monthly basis, then I was going to have to cash out btc into dollars on a regular monthly basis.
Therefore, I studied more closely into Circle’s sell rate, and I that point, I had an ah ha moment. It appears that Circle is using the same rate to buy or to sell BTC.
Therefore, there is effectively NO fee on either end (even though their rate seems to be about consistently about 1% higher than the Stamp trading rate). Furthermore, it also appears that currently I have a $5,000 weekly sell limit on Circle, which is practically unlimited in terms of my anticipated quantity of need to cash out any BTC in the near future. WOW!!!!!!
Accordingly, I have concluded that on my end, if i were to receive any regular monthly Bitcoin payment(s) then at the point of receipt of each payment, I would decide whether I wanted to cash out through Circle immediately into my bank account (all or part) or to hold those BTC until a later time.
I'm glad that I was able to clarify this Circle fees matter (at least for my own understanding) because potentially working with BTC on a regular basis (up to $5,000 per week through Circle) appears to be much better than I had originally thought.
Maybe they do more selling volume than buying. So maintaining an above-market price would make them money (or help pay their expenses).
125.
Post 12341049 (copy this link) (by nrd525) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.25h):
