I'm starting to get nervous again.  Went long at 688 a while back and that may have been a mistake.

Come on guys. All this nonsense talk about low volume. And no one mentions that its the holidays. This was destined to be a low volume time. If the volume is still this low in 2 weeks then you have a right to doubt the directional trend, but for now two truths are evident that are being rather ignored - one, its the holidays and two, we are going more sideways than up. So, low volume consolidation during the holidays. Why are so many people acting shocked and amazed by this?

But my account should get verified without any problems right? They cant close my account with coins in it. I have to fiat

as much as i dislike gox, one would do well to buy on stamp and sell on gox right now.  spread is unusually juicy and likely to revert

nope

it dropped deeper than it has currently this morning I'm confused as to why now it matters?

It can not break the pattern until Proudhorn has more confirmed bad news.

Since all action is following Huobi, and Huobi is sitting on the 38.2% fib support, I think a small bounce would be in order before a retest and breakout, if downside breakout is coming.

5100 is the next fib resistance and ~ intersects with the post-ATH consolidation's moving support. So I wouldn't want to see that broken to the upside. 5000 was the top of the last push, maybe there.

You may be right. Staying below the previous support in the 4950s would be a much more bearish scenario though.

That would be my preference since I have a small short position open  

It is the most frightening thing that exists. It keeps 90% of my coins off the exchange.

I'm showing moderate growth in my exchange account, but not enough to merit the risk of being light on bitcoin when this thing erupts...

I thought like you once, and waiting to buy back in after Bitcoin went north of $10, I knew I was going to nail this market.

I'll try to explain.

I'm in a bit of an awkward position. I live in Canada. I'm a miner. The only reliable withdrawl method I've found is cavirtex. They charge me 1.5% per trade, so if I try to trade too close to the edge, I will get burned.

However, the fiat withdrawls are fast (1 or 2 days) and directly into my bank account; the withdrawls also incur only a flat 6 dollar fee. So, I guess I'm trading as more of a hedge than an opportunity.

A miners life for me  

Catching part a crash is easy. See the news, react to it. Wait 10 minutes to 2 hours. Buy back.

Trading the market right now? Different story. You so sure we are in a bear market? Absolutely positive? Ok, if you are then you are smarter than me.

Sure it looks heavy, but every day it doesn't go down is a day I would be worried if I was you.

Anybody who thinks they have a read on this market better have access to some specific data --> actual cash inflow/outflow into and out of all exchanges, actual volume of off exchange purchases, prototypes and development stages of current bitcoin eco-system products and apps, pending announcements from large retailers, specific EFT approval status, miner sentiment, just to name a few.

If you don't have access to these data points, then you are GUESSING right now not trading. And if you are trading the swings you better have trailing stops.

How safe is that money? How is repayment enforced? I still haven't gotten around to looking into Bitfinex.

cuz you're fucked if you don't get the trade right.

i do the same thing, i eat the 1.5% fee because if i get knocked out, at least i can withdraw with ease and comfort

i guess you can wait until the spread between btc-e and virtex is tight and use BTC to transfer the funds.... is it that headache worth 1.3% , not to me.

is there a limit in term of amount?

Can a node like reptileman turn into a supernode? 10k btc?

as long as stamp follows, that should be all the confirmation we need... I hope we're all good.

As always, here's the mantra like repetition of "It's not the FBI sale that's *causing* the price move". It's the "trigger" perhaps, but under different circumstances, the same news could have lead a small rally even ("wheee, cheap coins, the BTC ecosystem can only benefit from that sale!"). Right now however, the signs for a move downwards have been visible, if not particularly clear (and i'm not convinced this will turn into a full crash anyway). The FBI is just the nudge we needed.

You are becoming more and more manic by the minute T.Stuart.

Having just read that it is possible to short Bitcoin on Bitfinex, I headed right over there to register and open an account. I then set about finding the option to short bitcoin. The Bitfinex site does not make this a very straightforward process, but I soon discovered the shorting option only to find that there is absolutely nobody interested in lending out Bitcoins to a short seller at this point in time.

Now what does that tell you?

(a big fkn queue of wannabe short-sellers and a distinct lack of mugs Bitcoin holders willing to loan out their Bitcoins to shorters chasing clear and obvious profits)

You do know the lenders also risk losing their coins if the shorts don't pan out?

Until now only Huobi is impeding full break out...

...but don't seem to be very euphoric either only a bit hesitant.

Dumping on Stamp.... to $765

Guys did you look at Huobi volume ? It dropped like 1000% ?

Anybody got news on that ? Are they closing ?

Couple brave souls on Mtgox trying to reverse the trend. Let's see if it catches.

Looks like the entire night was reversed in 20 minutes. 

I'm struggling not to short this bump up really heavily. Seems like it's too easy.

I would be reluctant since Huobi hasn't passed 4.800 yet. But there are some crazy dumpers in between. Might be possible to catch 1 of them. Good luck!  

http://seekingalpha.com/news/1514731-report-prospects-for-winklevoss-bitcoin-etf-approval-look-good

ETF review going smoothly, once it is approved we can properly short!

I thought too much shorting hurt the price in the long run?  

Option #1 Claim it's a bull trap
Option #2 Claim that you rebought at the (insert minimum price market hit after you claimed you sold)
Option #3 Go into the shadows and just watch all the CCMF posts
Option #4 Rebuy and HODL

Shorting is only helpful when it is profitable.  If the shorters are incorrect, it leads to a short squeeze which adds volatility.

No dumbass, you're not investing shit. Welcome to my ignore, sick of your BS

We bounced off expected resistance but I'm becoming less and less confident that downside momentum will materialize. Seems 4200 may have been the mid-term bottom. If the EW heads are right, a strong bull move may be coming soon.

You underestimate what happened over the past two days.

https://www.mtgox.com/press_release_20140207.html

.... a temporarily pause on all withdrawal requests ....

Nope. Most bitcoiners are actually holders. Otherwise, the price wouldn't be where it is.

If you are slow and lazy Buy & Hold is a very good strategy. And it's stress-free (very valuable).

 But it's far away from beeing the holy grail.

bitcoinity.org

I had no idea how dependent I am on Bitcoinwisdom.... everything going well before that....

Did the same thing at Coinbase. What the hell, I can't be wrong every time.

just ate through that wall, next at 630...

one day people are going to realize these "walls" don't mean shit if the big players don't want them to.  They can make the market look however the hell they want and then send it in whatever direction they please.

If gox surpasses Stamp again , this will be one hell of a ride ))

Was asleep, what what the time window between the news and the crash? 5minutes or less? What was the first news source?

I had a short position of 20 BTC, from $625 down to $555, where I have just exited it. Although I only had only short sold 20 BTC, at one point I had like 100 BTC worth of limit orders on Bitfinex, all of which show up on order book. I wasn't trying to manipulate or anything, I was just kind of getting my shit together and trying things on for size.

If many of the Bitifinex traders are doing similar things to this, then no wonder the bid walls are so distorted and misleading....let alone the effect that bots doing it on purpose in order to mislead  might have.

Can you please expand on the statement "when they have liquidity at Bitstamp". Thanks

Do you think the API has been cut again?

But knowhere near the same liquidity. Had the 10K whale picked on bitfinex he would have sent the market to double digits....which will be why he never chose Bitfinex.

We have just had a break down from pennant formation on short term chart (generally bearish signal)........I myself just came out a very successful short, went back in, came back out during period of uncertainty, and then went short again at $547.

We'll be going much lower in the next few days. /hunch

http://two-bit-idiot.tumblr.com/post/77745633839/bitcoins-apocalyptic-moment-mt-gox-may-have-lost sorry more GOX FUD

this guy better fucking release the dam draft and proof ,then we can all watch flames engulf gox


Sounds like he loaded a needle up with FUD and injected it in to a vein located in his anus.

I have received an ***unverified*** report from an otherwise reliable source, which is purportedly from Mt. Gox.  The document, which is titled “Crisis Strategy Draft” outlines the current situation at the exchange.

Gox’s own workaround solution was criticized, and eventually a fix was provided by Blockchain.info. The truth, it turns out, is that the damage had already been done. At this point 744,408 BTC are missing due to malleability-related theft which went unnoticed for several years.

Nice find....so Ryan has some clients who want to purchase cheap Bitcoins, so.....

oh man my buy orders are starting to get filled. 460 and 450 filled (finex just missed 440).   I hope this isnt a mistake.

I suspect bullshit from Shrem.

The leaked scribd document wasn't the only leak. Remember, mtgox.com homepage still currently reads:


where it could easily be found. I suspect if this is a delaying tactic? Anyway, MTGOX effectively leaked hints of a takeover, real or not.

ACQ could mean anything... ha:

http://www.acronymfinder.com/ACQ.html

"Mark Karpeles   http://www.tibanne.com/   PHP can do stuff!"

The interesting part is that today he changed the referral site from http://www.mtgox.com/ to http://www.tibanne.com/

Hey everybody can be wrong sometimes. These are exceptional times, TA won't cut it in this environment.

I like fib retracements. Might be a good call but I have a feeling this market is still waiting for gox to drop the bomb either good or bad, so be on the lookout guys!

I know very little about TA, but I try to follow the threads here and learn what I can.  So, quick question: am I seeing a cup and handle on stamp (via bitcoin wisdom)?

You can put anything in the URL

http://blog.coinbase.com/post/77766809700/karpeles-denies-involvement-in-perverted-frappucino-incident

Dude, it's not real... Just a troll account.

My money goes to a slow downfall for a couple of days, with couple of bulltraps incl.
I still think that bitcoin won't be an attractive investment until it goes to 200-300$ region.

People here have been telling me this all the way down from 1000$.
What I have learned is that most people here have no clue what they're talking about. So, I think that I can manage without your advice.
Without the coming of new markets with proper volume, in new geographical locations, everything above 300 is too fragile for my taste. And I don't care if I miss out some temporal rises, because buying and selling those is not trading but gambling.

As I see it, going to 200-300$ is the continuation of the long term trend. Every bubble has dropped to the level around the peak of the previous bubble.
I actually don't use the charts much with cryptos to make decisions in trading. This market is unregulated and the wealth highly concentrated, so the price doesn't move in a way that would make sense in regular commodity markets. What interests me the most are the proper reasons that give potential to the rise of demand. If there are new reasons for people to buy and hold, then I'm back being bullish. During the past months there have been only reasons why people should drop bitcoin. I see that only hype and stupidity has postponed this drop.
To me "look! everyone seems to be buying!" is no reason to buy. I need better reasons about the success of the commodity itself, not just another wave of hype.

My sentiment is exactly this.... too many things are identical to the last "growth phase" to ignore.

Sadly I don't see many news that can make the bitcoin price turn upwards. To me -
bitcoin based businesses - Not bitcoin based businesses, but crypto based businesses. They can ditch bitcoin and just jump to another crypto with relative ease. So, they are not dependent on bitcoin and their existence isn't supporting the success of bitcoin. Those investments wouldn't been made if they were dependent on bitcoin.
apps - I haven't seen a lot of new good apps for bitcoin. I think that the most important piece of software that gives value to bitcoin is Armory. And the development of Armory is rather slow.
big companies accepting bitcoin as payment - Big companies accept bitcoin for marketing reasons, not for financial benefits. Implementing bitcoin payment will actually cost you more money and work hours then it is gained by any transaction efficiencies. Companies are accepting bitcoin because it can create free press + new loyal customers, that are loyal to bitcoin. And if someone buys something with bitcoin, then he will only hold bitcoin temporarily or he will waste the bitcoins that he held before. The company that receives the bitcoins, will convert it to $ right away, because bitcoin doesn't enable liquidity. So, if new companies are adopting payment, then I can see that it will more probably have a negative effect on the price, not positive.
ATMs - I think that the atms are a gimmick. If someone wants to buy bitcoins then it's cheaper to buy them online. I think that ATMs were meant to catch the regular folks who find buying bitcoins online too difficult. I think that this idea failed because those regular folks distrust those ATMs even more. I think that zipzap cash for coins was a better idea.
general public consciousness of bitcoin - during the past months it hasn't been exactly a good thing. People are more sure that bitcoin is just a pyramid scheme and they ridicule people who are involved.
I think that EU/USA market is saturated. Almost everyone knows about bitcoin and they have made up their decision if they want in or not, and it's very hard to turn those decisions around. People tend to be rather radical when deciding their stance on bitcoin. They either love it or hate it and there is a low chance in turning it around.

I see that the only choice is to enter those markets that haven't been touched yet. Then you can create actual demand and then you can be certain that the price will go up.

From reading this chat log (if its authentic) I immediately come to the following conclusions:

• They did not have a cold wallet, it was one huge hot wallet, implemented by MT.
• Occasionally it lost (or failed to store correctly or deleted¹) private keys of its own change outputs ('not "lost" just yet, just temporarily unavailable')
• He seems to believe the keys are still there somewhere buried deeply somewhere in his database server ('We haven't given up')

_____________________
¹) This is how I imagine their wallet worked (and how it fucked up):

User initiates withdrawal:

* debit amount from user account
* generate new private key for change address and create tx
* store tx in database (indexed by txid)
* store private key in database (indexed by address, foreign_key=txid)
* push tx to network

a week later (cron job)

* for all unconfirmed tx older than 1 week:
*     credit BTC back to customer account
*     delete "invalid" tx
*         -> cascaded delete "unused" change address and its private key (ouch!)

run 2 years until wallet is dry, all supposed UTXO turn out to be STXO and all real UTXO are in nirvana already.

Probably   This is rising too fast

Good morning, As I said yesterday, from looking to the 4h chart there is now a crossover which indicate to a rally up in the next few days, the market will be bullish, I still cant figure out the top of this race but the good news is that the 2nd bottom is finally forming which means that we are leaving the bubble behind us and we will start a new cycle...

all we need is a positive MACD and few bullish days and we are over with the bubble thing....

<MagicalTux> le gouv. US veut pas qu'on disclose hein

See there is no "rescue" because the rescuers wanted access to cheap coins or easy profits. One look at the books told them there were no profits or coins and they bailed. That "crises report" reeked of amateurish under-capitalized opportunism. It was so unprofessional that I thought it was fake.

I'm an actual Bitcoin trader and enthusiast on a Bitcoin forum, whatever my faults may be.

What the hell has happened to the momentum chasers and TA chartists? On the way down, they would not shut up and now they are conspicuously quiet. This is the TA thread and there has been no TA for pages.

I am sure the 10k whale ain't buying back, but decided to cash out  exactly 10,000 btc last time, which suggest he has more btc in reserve
Now i can only guess that he turned bear and fearful with Gox demise..  

That is FUCKED up... he had NO hedging... apparently?   And, his business plan seem a bit, lacking?    Anyhow...   So how can you keep such a business going in the event that GOX is truly and totally insolvent in terms of the reimbursement of the investors' BTCs?

So bottom was 535 

woah 3k sell wall now (BFX)
this is feeling like insider trading to me

That was weird, there was just an over 40 btc buy order at $702.13, which should have cleared off the sell wall, but the sell wall was unaffected, and the order was filled...

No they arent.

Is this accurate?: https://www.cryptocoincharts.info/orderbook.php?pair=btc-usd&market=bitstamp

Bistamp's bid sum is looking anemic.

wtf is going on, haha

looks like someone sold while he wanted to buy, then rebought

And we trust bitcoin exchange operators now because exactly why?

I would like to explain the effects of good news vs bad news on the price of bitcoin (how it may convince people to buy or sell or hold):

I will refer to Joseph T. Klapper, who in 1960 wrote of the limited effects model of the media: the media do not have predictable effects.  The effects of the media are small and unpredictable. The reception of a message depends on the source (credibility) and topic (preexisting opinion) of a message. The role of the media is to reinforce existing opinions. Confirmation bias. The media are more likely to reinforce opinions than to change them. Political campaigns and ad campaigns will typically find their way to those who are already among the converted.

Think about this carefully when interpreting the effects of news, good or bad.

It's also important to note that although belief in the limited effects theory later declined, to a perspective that the media did have a strong effect, but more nuanced and subtle and difficult to gauge, the general rules about the effects of media on the public still hold true. We consider ourselves opinion leaders, and this being a bull forum, might influence our decisions more than we might care to admit.

“The effort to state an absolute fact is simply an attempt to achieve what is humanly impossible.”  “All I can do is give you my interpretation of the facts.” - Ivy Lee

Isn't your bolded text the very essence of the myth? 

Personally, I don't know how many coins are actually held by the "chinese" and I also don't know whether they would be more or less likely to sell them in a "ban" scenario. 

Are you saying that it is obvious they would remove coins from the exchanges to bitcoin wallets, or obvious that they would sell every coin in their possession and remove yuan?

Is it also obvious to you how many coins are actually held by the Chinese?

keep hodling!

do we have more hodlers?

 confirm your willingness to HODL!

chinese exchanges might dip pretty low, for a moment, but stamps will not follow, then all chinese exchanges should start to see demarictly less volume, and have price stabilize near stamps price.

thats my best guess

if you can't Deposit CNY then arbitrage is not possible

Yay!! I got something right - I figured ta was probably trend analysis but with all the code words, buzz words and such I wasn't 100%

I closed my margin long @ $478 and took a good pounding. My biggest loss ever. Note to self: Never hold a margin position overnight.