Bull trap in the works. No way we will break the 150. Will see a slow grind to 110...

Coming from someone registered in 2012....

Very, very possible !

For sure, not over the exchange and by auction.....But they will need to find people to bid for these 144k coins and given the size, they will be happy to give them away at a discount. These coins will eventually hit the exchange and will influence the price then....

I would be not very confident in holding large amount of coins these days...

You are right, this could take some time. And you are right, there are tons of people who will hold onto their coins forever... but most of those people got them at very low prices. But all the newcomers paying $200 plus per coin will have a pain level.

I cannot predict what the market will be doing. I wish I could. However, in my personal view there are more downside risks than upside risks from here.

It was mentioned in this thread before. We should not forget, there are currently USD 2.5 Mio lend on Bitfinex for Bitcoin long positions. I wonder how many coins are behind this sum (10000-15000?). With 57% pa, they are going to hit these bids sooner or later or will act as a future wall.

wow, canīt believe I missed that one. Well spotted. Thank you

Interesting....and thanks again

Bearish sign 

How do you know ? the crash has not started yet....

What makes you so sure ? The downfall has just started...

I wish you good luck....

From what I read, it is only Bitcoins that create issues. So we do speak of an influx of BTC only. Iīd say, once these coins hit the exchange, people are going to sell. My guess is <985 once issues are fixed.

You are right, there is always room for speculation. Lets see how this is going to turn out. But why would you deposit BTC on Bitstamp anyway ? To keep them there ? Those people were hoping to sell at higher prices...

If it was Bitfinex, where you can enter leveraged long positions with your bitcoin I would agree...

I would not count on this...

Interesting, how opinions differ. I would sell asap, before all the others got their coins.... Good thing is, this is your decission

No, he is not a troll, he is just trying to protect you from further losses.

No, I want to make more profit on my short. It will take some time till we see cheap coins

You know, only long term holders are making profit  

Thank you for your advice. I do have my limits placed. But no reason to buy back above 900 USD

Isnīt it funny. In a bull market you sell and buy back higher, in a bear market it is the opposite. you buy back and sell lower. You are not alone...

You are right, not unlimited. But just guess what is going to happen if just 5% of all coins hit the exchanges.... Not that I am expecting this...

I am not going to put an order in above USD 200...

Oh yes, but only a minor amount. Still, this would be the most expensive btc I would ever have bought. I would even not be surprised to see double digits in a real panic sell off.

You think I should rather place it around 150 ?

Can you elaborate why ?

Interesting, suddenly people do trust investment bankers

Well done, so far the downtrend looks intact.

I would not be surprised if this was one person or a small group of people trying to manipulate to get others to break the trend

Not entirely true, you can still withdraw EURīs. Takes some time, but it works....

I wonder if this has been an epic bull trap or the trend reversal ?

Good point ! Any other views ?

Looks like it. Lets see in which direction the wind will be blowing

WTF ? Online Poker illegal ? I never heard of that one....

bid and ask sums are non important. they do not tell anything as they will be pulled and increased when needed.

because everyone sold but you ?

agreed, but bid and ask sums are constantly manipulated, hence the worst indicator. Or the easiest one to fool you

FTFY 4800...

agreed again. Unfortunatly some people have still not realized that since the double top the train is going into the other direction...

to me it looks like we have just confirmed the downward channel

I would not be surprised if that were margin calls...

wow, Bitfinex BTC lending as become expensive overnight. I wonder whatīs going on ;-)

In an order driven exchange such as Gox, this is called price-time priority.

No, In my view Bitcoin is not money. Bitcoin is a medium of exchange and unit of account, but it is missing the store of value part due to its high volatility.... others might argue differently.

To some extend correct. But you will have less fresh fiat coming to exchanges as people donīt trust them. This could result in less supply and demand, lower volume and higher volatility. There is also the possibility that more people will withdraw their fiat (before it is too late ?). I believe this can only add to the selling pressure we have seen in the last couple of month.

As we are discussing walls. Anyone else noticed the massive wall on bitfinex in the 700-710 area. 14.000 coins to 710. Not to forget, this includes Bitstamps order book as well. Still....

I wonder where the speculation comes from that Wall Street is going to enter ?
Those at Wall street, which are allowed to buy BTC are already in and probably liquidating. (Hedgies)
Those who arenīt, why should they invest in an underlying which looks like a bubble and is in decline.
Bitcoin is not new... I cannot believe that people found out about BTC in 2013 believe they found the holy grail of wealth. People at hedgefonds are paid tons of money to spot opportunities. They would have done a pretty bad job by not spotting Bitcoin by 2012 latest.

I know for sure, that Banks were already looking at Bitcoin in 2012.

In a downtrend I would not try to trade long, to much of trying to catch the falling knife. Short is where you want to be and buy the dips :-)

Speculating !! Part of a MTGox Bailout ?

It does appear that the coins are doing something at Gox.
Letīs say an early adopter agreed to provide 200.000 coins and help MTGox to come back up.
What would the implications be ?

a) Lotīs of coins which will be withdrawn and dumped on other exchanges
b) confidence raises and we are going to the moon

I vouch for a)

thanks !!

The problem is that there is no Tom, Dick and Harry interest to buy bitcoin as they are fearing it is a bubble and their hard earned money will vanish

Once the über bears start to become bullish, it is time to aggressively increase your short

Wow, you sir are the perfect example why old time bitcoiners donīt want to contribute to this forum anymore.

There is someone who spends time and efforts to contribute to this forum and all you have to say is that bears are idiots ? Instead of "thank you for your analysis, but I got a different view because of...." you call this person an idiot ? Actually not only this person, but all bears ?

Looking through your posts, I was not able to find any contribution from your side which was a bit valuable.  In my view, you are the idiot here. Just because you have only seen Bitcoin in a three digit range, you believe there will be no other ? I would not be too sure of that. There could be a big disappointment.

I believe in Charts to some extend, and believe the guy has done a reasonable job. Can he predict the future ? Certainly not, we all donīt know where Bitcoin is going. There is more than just drawing lines.
I am a bear in this situation, but instead of calling all the bulls idiots, I will try to back it up with some reasonable points.

1. The Chartanalysis above......
2. Dell news. This is major news !!! I agree on that and should drive the price to... wherever. BUT, there is a good old saying: buy the rumour, sell the news. A lot of people knew about it before it was published and took their positions. That is the reason why the Bitcoin price has not moved since the news were published. They are now taking profits and the sheep buying on the news are paying for it. The conclusion in this case, the market is saturated. No more reasonable positive performance for quite a while.
3. Bitfinex Credit Bubble. 30 million USD on loan ? at a price of USD 600 this makes at least 50.000 bitcoins which need to be sold at some stage. There will be no CCMF before this problem is off the table. look at current volumes. This is more than 10 days of Bitstamp volume....
4. Bitcoin auction. Till today, no one knows about the price and people are estimating sky high numbers. An auction price around USD 600 would at this point a very profitable trade worthwhile to realise some profits. But it certainly caps bitcoin performance.
5. Further Bitcoin auctions. What should I say... more Bitcoin to come to the market
6. Adoption. People are very bullish about retailers adopting bitcoin. For me that is bearish news. There are people with thousands of BTC who just donīt want to pay tax. Just buying their luxury goods with bitcoins is what they are waiting for a long time. Selling them for USD, EUR or whatever would mean they would need to pay taxes. Just buying goods is a nice tax evasion scheme.
7. Wall Street will enter... yawn. I know hedgefunds which are playing bitcoin since 2012. If they do something, they are selling
8. Bitcoin is a new technology. Bitcoin is as old as the IPhone 3.... You just heard about it too late and believe you found something new....

I personally would not spend 600 USD on a bitcoin. I believe that it is highly overvalued at this price and everyone paying this amount of money is out of his mind. I still have enough to make a good living, but I will rather sell some than buy...

That is because you donīt have any counterpoints.... This is laughable

That is because you donīt have any counterpoints.... This is laughable
[/quote]

1 - pfft
2 - Who are these "lot" of people that knew? that "bought the rumor" and where was their buying? or price spike up from this? (even a small one) and where is the corrosponding dump ? of the sell the news ? price has been stable since news came out...
3 - Do you not consider that volume might actually increase? and then what happens with this theory/problem
4- I think just as many people know the price as knew about Dell accepting BTC - and really we know it was above market value- and that Tim won all lots- that says plenty- and does it look like Tim D is about to sell his coins to realise this "great profit"?
5-  And so what if there is demand- to date demand has not fallen compared to supply - the DPR coins are already part of the coins in circulation- even if they are not currently "out in the market place" it is just as if they are in cold storage - and also so what ? did you see what happened with the last auction?
6- I am bullish about more and more and more merchants accepting Bitcoin , rather than on just one- it is a stage BTC must go through to continue down the path to glory - and it is doing so- how else can we get btc to uniquity without getting more and more merchants onboard? and give it some bloody time.
7- Nice anecdote -please tell us more- do you know everyone on wall street ? and again  = time
8 - The components that make up an I-phone are actually decades old tech ! yup you heard me- it is just now that they are packaged into a "sleek and small" device in the way that they are - and at a price that is affordable- Iphone could have come to market 20 years ago if Jobs had his act together and if people were willing to pay $100,000 for each one- and it be the size of half a brick- the only thing that has changed really is the cost and size- the tech was there already or in advanced stages of being developed decades ago - or was in one form or another already in the market place- it is old tech- repackaged and shrunk - to be accurate. Compared to the blockchain/BTC protocol which is not an old tech.

Also you seem angry - what is that about?




[/quote]

First of all, I am not angry at all. Not sure why you got this impression. But thank you for taking the time to challenge my opinion. This is what I was looking for !!! Unfortunately I can not claim to be right in all circumstances. who is ?

1. Either you believe or not believe. I like charts you donīt. Fine by me
2. I was quoting an old time market saying. As I said, the market should have sky-rocketed, but it did not. Clearly a signal that there are people who knew more and took positions. Bitcoin is still unregulated. Bitcoin is a perfect underlying to play insider information without going to jail for it....
3. Surely, volume might increase, still this amount of coins will cap the short to mid term performance of bitcoin, if not even crash it. People pay 50% interest p.a. for those positions. They will not pay that for long if there is no reasonable performance soon.
4. Not too sure who Tim is, but it if he paid more than USD 600 he made a bad deal. Maybe you know him better or know more about the auction price. Can you educate me ?
5. see point 4. Still too many coins coming to the market. Including the 3600 daily mined coins. It is all about demand. But looking at exchange volume, there is not much of it....
6. More merchants is good for early adopters. I doubt that anyone who wants to buy a Dell computer will buy a bitcoin to do so. Too many people "stick" to their coins. Once they finally got one, they are not going to spend it....  My precious !!
7. I am in Europe... very difficult to know everyone there. But if you like anecdotes, I got one for you. I was advising major European Banks and Hedgefunds already in 2012 about Bitcoin. Believe it or leave it, I am not going to say more. There are a few people here who know me personally... You cannot win this one.
8. I guess this is a point we will never agree on and I stand to my point. Bitcoin is not new ! It is from 2009.

I wish I had a crystal ball and know what will be happening. There is a good probability that I am wrong, but I am always waging the odds and in my view we are rather going down. The thing is, I do not need Bitcoins, and the majority of people neither. They are still a speculative object.

You are right, they probably have other things to do :-) Still there are some which are still active. :-)

No one can ever tell why, but there were enough indications that we will be going down.... Why are people surprised ?

And not to forget: 29.5 million USD on loan on Bitfinex Margin Long positions. Perfect szenario for a further decline, if not a crash

Not too sure why you have changed your mind from Bear to Bull within hours just because we have seen a small rebound. To me this looks like another Bull trap before going lower...

But he is acting very emotional and it looks like that he lost something.

Probably getting out of his position ? If I would still hold that amount of coins, I would do the same and try to get out asap before Bitcoin goes any lower. 

This is certainly true. However, he might have been bullish in that moment and changed his mind. He has not moved or pulled his wall once small pieces were eaten, which makes it look like a genuine seller. Not to forget, every USD he is selling lower does cost him USD 1300. Who would want to accumulate coins at levels above USD 500 just before the weekend? Does not make sense in my view.

Less money hitting the exchanges ? But you are right again, it could also go up. But in my view we are bound to go much lower.

Well, I still have a few coins left... letīs call it pocket money compared to what I had half a year ago...

oh well, holding a single digit balance compared to a tripple digit balance back then does not really hurt....

You have hit the nail on its head. I do like bitcoin, but believe it is still overvalued. I believe this is very subjective, but I cannot get myself to buy any coins at this level. There might be a slight chance to miss the train, but I have made my profit.

I donīt think this is going to happen as there are even more longs open. With USD 19 mln open this translates at current prices to more than 40.000 BTC (Not taking long positions in LTC into consideration). Bid side is only 26.000 coins to EUR 50....
Some will equal each other out, but then there will be still more longs to bring us rather down...

Isn't that very obvious ?  

I think that a rise to 475 will be used to reopen the shorts which were were closed at 465. This is what I am going to do 

Could happen... but currently doesnīt look like it.

Very true statement. But there are enough bitcoins borrowed which are currently not used in a margin short position either. And that at much cheaper rates.

Same is true for the people who borrowed "cheap" USD.  Not sure what you mean with "trade against the wind". The overall trend over the last a few month has been down.

Thought so... Agree again. It will be very interesting !  

That's what the trading floor is for... For external you got Bloomberg Chat groups. All monitored for language and recorded for compliance.

If you dont like people speculating then you are wrong here. It is very obvious that bitcoin is still expensive at these levels and it is people like you pushing others into their despair. Stupid noob. Second Person in ignore in three years. Quite an achievement. Good bye cultist...

Extend your view to a three year timeframe and you will see what I mean. Sure, there is a price where I might buy again but we are still far away from that point. The news cannot get very much better but we are still going down. Clear sign of market saturation. Trend is down. Weak orderbooks. 20 Mio plus loans on longs. Individuals with 4 to 5 digit balances to cash out. Volatiliy. Merchants instantly cashing out. High Inflation. What makes you think that we are cheap ?

Why do people believe that bids were around USD 400 ? these are blocks of 2 and 3 k. if I were to buy one block I would rather look for a discounted bid of at least 5 percent, otherwise i could buy them on exchange. in addition if i knew that there are only 11 bidders, which implies a low demand i would add another 5 percent...

😉 going through all the hasle to confirm id, transfer 150 k usd in advance and have a weekend in between before settlement on a fixed price ? for a premuim on current exchange prices ? never ever...

I very much agree... but thats why I would participate in the auction to get them at a steep discount. otherwise i would not be interested.

are you talking about a squeeze of 6200 btc on shorts or the 24 mio usd (up to 64800 btc)on longs in Bitfinex .

no... the other way around. 6200 short and up to 10 times more longs that could get squeezed

agree. we should be at least 100 USD lower. but there appears to be too many manipulative bulls

can I buy virgins with that ? I guess this was a different religion.... crazy people...

cant believe that there are still fools around willing to pay more than 200 usd for a bitcoin.

wrong assumption. i never paid more than 14 USD for a coin...

and i got asks to fill for my new short. common bulltards you can make 225....

somehow I do feel sorry for all of those buying into tis bulltrap. oh well, it is their fault...

lol. as if the people in uk would make a difference. your holding on to every straw you can find to support your delusional bullish view...

trying to stop people to trick them into bitcoin. admit it, you are just trying to get rid of your bag...

shorting like hell between 240-260 level... common bulls take my offers😝

i agree usd 100 plus a bit is my target as well

* edit... oh missed the run in your post

yes it does... bulls are currently buying my offers 😋

my reading of TA is showing me a bear flag to a max of 265... positioning accordingly

i guess I have to give a big "thank you" to all of you who bought my coins in this bulltrap. did not get everything filled but I dont want to be greedy😜😂

nah... buying them back when you panic sell @ 120...

...and the MOAR you lose. Somehow I feel sorry for you, but I guess you don't want to hear that anyway.

I surely know what the cost average effect is. it still does not help you on an depreciating asset. In the case of Bitcoin I call it to try to catch a falling knife.

Nice we got something in common. Mine was 15 USD and got rid of it in the high tripple digits. Why didnt you sell?

edit... you beat me. you signed up 7 days before me 😀

patience little padawan... patience

You don't have any ROI as long as you hold. It is just paper profits. There is still time to cash in 200 percent, but your greed is blinding you.

Just wait for the 200.000 coin distribution to all MtGox creditors... that's when it will start to get really interesting

I guess the payout ratio will be very low, still I will certianly dump mine as soon as I have them... Hope they hurry up... it is a shame they haven't sold already.

thats all what is left from MtGox and will be distributed to creditors. Or will be sold and the cash be distributed. I think the first option is easier to do... no ETA, but I was reading somewhere that is gonna happen this year.

you need to adjust your trading strategy. a few hints from my side:

1. trade the trend, in downtrends you should be short or flat, in uptrends you are long or flat (downtrend still active)
2. don't get driven by emotions. this will lose you money
3. trade the dips.
4. look at the charts

It was very easy to make good money the last two days. short the bull run (finex) @245 two days ago. buy the dip at a profit targe of 10 usd(50% of your position) flaten your position as momentum changes. short just below the high from two days ago with limits at 242, 243, 244. the 244 was not filled but still you got back 70 percent of your short...
=>profit. from what i read, you did exactly the opposite.

5. don't forget to secure your trade by either a stoploss just above the previous high 246.3 or a trailing stop
now you got a nice risk/reward ratio...

Can't wait for the cascading long squeeze once we drop below 220. With more than 50.000 coins long this is going to be fun to watch !

Its wallstreet moving into bitcoin😳😂😂

Banks don't give a shit about bitcoin. Bitcoin is nothing other than an Aprils fool joke on the trading floor. They don't care, even central banks don't care anymore. They got other problems to solve. If someone is to kill Bitcoin it is Bitcoin itself. I believe Bitcoin is here to stay.... in the double digit area. For some users this will mean it is dead...

why do people ignore the 200.000 MtGox coins which will be either hitting the market or beeing distributed to creditors this year ?

You are very correct, Sir. Only a proportion of that will be distributed. Some will be sold to cover for expenses. the question is if all will be sold and fiat will be distributed or only the expenses part will be sold and the remaining coins to be distributed. Either way, lots of coins....

to me it looks like a slow grind down.

Interesting... it appears I am living in the past. That might be the reason I do see a grind down. I got another 5 days left to see what you see. Hope you are right...

why would someone look at this chart and make this assumption on a less than a one month timeframe? Zoom out to one year and all I see is lower highs and lower lows with no indication for a turnaround. Even the downtrend has not been tested once...

there it is.... it appears your 35k did not really help....

was kind of expected.... wasn't it ?

agree. nothing than another bulltrap....

you are just wrong. these were not new shorts. This drop was initiated by bulls...

we very much agree here. But a bear would not have had coins to dump as they are either short or flat...

agree again. still i always feel more relax when beeing short. at least till we will see a turn in the overall trend.

nice, Bulls now paying 0.05% on var and 0.07% on top for their lev. in addition they are getting burned again. This is goona hurt.

definetly more predictable and profitable than gambling...

I prefer fiat over coins. this is what i live of, feed my family with and pay my mortgage with. I trade coins to generate extra fiat for luxury spending. That's about it. If long or short, I only care about Bitcoin as it is volatile and if you apply a bit of TA the last 4 years were profitable. The USD did actaullay prove to be quite a good investment compared to other currencies, such as EUR, RUB and of course BTC... not too sure why you are negative about it.

/edit. and all I read here is how rich everyone will become with btc in future. Buying yachts and Champagne once btc hits 30000 USD. sounds like that everyone is here for the same reason, just applying a different strategy

no trust in god here. not saying that usd is great. i like money, I don't care in which form. I liked Bitcoin in 2011, 2012 and 2013. I did like equities in 2013 and 2014 and propety in gerneral. Dept in EUR worked as well the last 3 years. was never into Gold, which was a shame as I completely missed this one...
You are responsible for your own future, hence I don't mind what you do.

buying volumes are declining. Over bought territory. I believe it is time for bulls to take profit and bears to start shorting

I said start to... did not say that this is the top

I am surely taking profits now...

...and opened s amall short, just for the fun of it

so far it appears that the timing was perfect 😀

after closing my short with a small loss at 243 and going long at the same level. closed profit @ 289 short at 291... and you? appears you have never taken a profit...

you are right... moving my stop loss accordingly to protect that position...

as I would have the time to comment on my trading strategy constantly. Risk management is everything and trailing stops are your friend. Emotions are changing quickly... just stick to your rules. Just because I am not a permabull does not mean I am not going long on news and market movement. I told you before, I am here for the volatility... and yes I took a small loss on my short position at that very time...

I agree, no one knows where it will go. I am very careful with leverage as well theses days as vol is very high. I always make sure to protect what I have. Only working 60-70 percent in total, but the profits are mostly higher than the losses...

I checked my trading history and you are right, my position was showing 243, but this was due to swing trading in the move up. the long position I took was 253...

He is either a liar or very bad at maths. On the 17 th of Feb he stated his average buying price is 85 USD...

I would not be surprised if once we get close to it, it gets pulled. It is just there to create artificial demand and confidence for some to buy at these prices.

lol...pulled

And 50000 coins from the auction which will only settle on monday. I guess they were bought at a discount to the current price. Lets see how long this will be a discount

even worse...

tbh... I don't know, but I would not be surprised of it. I am repeating myself, but there is another auction and the Gox liquidation which currently appear to happen this year.

you are right this is not an auction. But it will surely create supply. I know what I am going to do with the coins distributed to me... no matter how high the payout will be.

There is certainly 200.000 coins left and I guess cash as well. This was not stolen... but even if they would need to cover for fees with the bitcoins left, they will need to sell them.

There is actually 698.246.328 JPY (5,795 mln USD) and 202.106 Bitcoin left. Plus anything that they will get back from tibanne, if any. Hence I do expect some kind of distribuition to creditors. Distributing the cash will surely be more difficult.

how about the 20 mn. USD margin long on Bitfinex ?

Does that not imply that we will might get lower than 160? At some stage they will need to be closed. If you take a price of 250 USD this would relate to 80.000 coins.

thanks for that. That was new to me !

He is going to cry when the cascade starts...

Bulls are on their way to the slaughterhouse...

you are right, the shorts in bitcoin are micro compared to the leveraged longs... Cant wait for the cascade 😂

apart of OKCoin, btc-e and bitfinex there is not many venues to borrow bitcoin to go short, hence shorting is limited. Lots of opportunities to borrow fiat... loans, mortgages, credit cards, parents and so on...
and still more than 100.000 coins borrowed on bfx.

this is a house of cards...

I am probably less coins short than you are long... and compared to you I made a shitload of money in the last 18 month.
just wait until your collateral continues to devaluate by high interest and decline.

good than we got the same understanding, but sorry mate, I am not discussing personal finances in a public forum

just have a look when I registered and at my post history... should give a hint

repeating myself... look at my post history and dont speculate. Yes I am short and I would love if I could talk the market down. And yes, I would love to pick up some cheap coins, but we are not near the double digit range, yet....

Could it be possible that you guys are mixing up turnover with volume? Normaly the volume describes the amount of units traded. Turnover is measured in the underlying currency.

Hence 269111 SEK / 9,69 / 200 = 138 btc traded.

Please correct me if I am wrong...

Thatīs what I thought, Thanks Jorge

What are you trying to tell us? Fake walls exist since Bitcoin is traded on exchanges and 286 Coins is not even considered a wall....
Why do you care? Nervous holding coins?

I think we are looking at different charts. The latest bulltrap was a fake breakout on low volume and has confirmed the downtrend....

Haven't been here for a while, but it looks like it might be worth to start shorting again...

I am just afraid to miss the train down...maybe gonna start slowly to build a position

yup... sub 200 till the end of the year...😚

no! you are on the wrong side of the trade 😜

bfxdata.com

there is a whole list... just to mention some.

slow confirmations
blocksize
energy consumption
outdated blockchain tech
banks dont give a damn
bad reputation
usage is down
regulatory issues on exchanges
scams everywhere

blockchain is the future, but Bitcoin itself has no intrinsic value and its price is purely based on speculation.

whoever is looking at bitstamp prices 😴... 152.4 was the low... nice try 😂

lol, It appears you are on the wrong side of the market since you joined this forum 😂

hey thanks for that article. acually i did not know that one, but I know Molecular...