Looks both BTC and LTC are going to have their lines converge in about a month.

Yes if. I wonder the same. Because if everyone is expecting another bubble, can one happen, at least so soon? It's like the perfect trap. And the longer the delay, the worse things will get in this market. It's looking by the end of September, if we're either going to be at $500-$550 (right on target to approach the next bubble) or somewhere around $400 and looking to fall below that.

At some point this bubble trend will break and when it does it's going to be a long bear market. The last two bubbles did have some very large sell offs before they began (as in very temporarily breaking the long term trend) so it's just so hard to predict right now.

Convert the entire price history of BTC into log scale and you will see. There are 3 very giant steps (bubbles) that have occurred with BTC periodically. We are right about now crossing the long term low trend line of all of it. This is what pretty much everyone is expecting - that BTC will bounce soon (sometime within the next 2 months) and begin a new giant step somewhere to $2000-$5000. But the majority reasoning is that "because it has happened before it will continue to happen" type of mentality is not good reasoning.

With that said BTC has had some great adoption this past year, so I am leaning towards it will happen again, as I hardly consider a few companies accepting BTC anywhere near full potential adoption. BUT, every single past bubble has had a major sell off that occurred right before it took off. That's why it's going to be so damn hard to predict and get right no matter what happens over the next month.

Nice buys to whoever bought $350 BTC and $3.50 LTC. DRK has also doubled in price today.

FOMO. The cure to FOMO is YOLO.

Almost looks like some big players are testing the waters with the less liquid LTC right now.

This is actually one of the good reasons I hold BTC. Because everything seems to be getting hacked today, and in the worst cast scenario... at least you still have your BTC (assuming you keep your computer safe).

DOGE with a massive spike today. It finally broke its long term down trend. As stupid as some of you may think the coin is, its a great sign for the entire crypto market as a whole. Let's hope it holds because less liquid alts can show signs of a market wide reversal long before BTC can.

I have a questions to those of you experienced in trading in volatile markets like this : if we see a rally back to $550 soon (and probably subsequent fall back to $480-$500 by the end of the year), what are the odds for collapse at that point? It would look very odd to me if it starts to look decisively sideways and then just fall off a cliff. While bulls may not have much confidence, bears will probably lose their confidence, and the market will look truly undecided. But eventually that long term moving average is going going to converge with the price if we just continue a damped oscillation up and down.

Otherwise, I might as well start thinking about where else to invest until 2016. Because if the worst case happens (hooray for $300 BTC), I don't think many here realize that when a bubble truly collapses, it doesn't recover, at least not for a while. This isn't the days of $100 million total market cap anymore (at the reference of the $20 to $3 and then recovery or even $280 to $60, which took longer). It's going to a take a while for the cap of billions to recover. While guys like falling are sitting around wondering why they aren't getting rich overnight having bought $300 BTC, "the cheapest coins ever."

Paypal could be worth as much as $100 billion. BTC isn't even $10 billion. I'd rather use BTC over chargebackpal any day of the week. Speaking of which, will BTC payments through PP be non-reversible? Or will PP continue their usual bullshit. (while BTC transaction cannot be reversed, they can still lock your account and demand you pay from bank account)

LTC seems to have been doing fairly ok lately. Same with DOGE. I wonder if those two coins have found their long term bottoms (DOGE has broken long term down trend, but LTC hasn't yet). Now if only BTC on the other hand...

I'm just blindly hoping that those coins could be showing the first signs of a near bottomed out market.

Funny how market sentiment changes overnight like this. DOGE went from DEAD to back to number 3.

Just need BTC to do the same now.

Stop selling ALL of your coins, please. Really basic TA. A few alts turning it could what BTC needs.

I'm not a BTC elitist nor will I ever be. I just want to see crypto be successful and retire by 40.


And finally... BTC (won't be seeing the lows that DOGE, DRK, LTC have due to being far more liquid)



So stop selling everything okay.

Yes, in 13 years either BTC will be worth some amount we cannot fathom right now, or it will be worth absolutely nothing!

I was also joking about the retirement part. I would however love to obtain financial freedom by 40. But, retirement = I'd get bored too quickly. I like my work/career anyway. And of course I plan to try to obtain some more BTC. A maximum of 21 million coins isn't even enough to give to all the people in state of California alone, let alone China.

Bubble delayed until 2016.

I have some really, really, really low offers on BTCe just in case someone misclicks again.

Need another Newegg $150 of $500 ASAP so I can cut my losses!

Pretty much this. Guys like falling can buy their $350 BTC. But what they didn't realize is if it gets to those levels, there's no reason to even enter. If there's going to be another long-term rally, why even try to gamble and call bottom. What difference does buying in at $100-$400 make if this all does come back one day? Money is an asset and I certainly don't want it tied up in something that will probably go no where for a while. A beaten market simply doesn't recover overnight. Until the bag holders slowly forget, they'll be waiting to dump. It's nearly over (for a while).

Yeah. I remember Overstock. But the price kept falling. Then Newegg came along, but the price kept falling. The OMG PAYPAL - but the price kept falling!

Market is beat, this is sentiment, even Ebay isn't going to save it now.

Others have said, we need some bad to news to really just capitulate and get this over with.

Oh BTC, you never fail to surprise. Biggest green candle I have seen in a while.

Paypal full on embracing BTC, and then even promoting it, will increase the number of users a few orders of magnitude.

 

Next up. China bans Paypal?

Doubt it. However, with Paypal now confirmed on the way, crypto is facing what is likely going to be the biggest adoption phase it has yet to see, in 2015. This is still a few months off, however, knowing that it is coming, could be enough to send us into a defined sideways market for a little while before we can start using BTC on Paypal. Then bubble.

I can't spend lottery tickets at Newegg. Nor can I trade lottery tickets for alternative lottery tickets in attempt to gain more lottery tickets so I can buy more at Newegg!

/logic

Not much further to go to test the last high of $280. There's still the original 2011 up trend, but that's way further down at $180.

It feels so massively oversold that I'm going to take a bit of a chance and hope a trade works out here. But damn this market sentiment right now. Stop loss = 6% on this one because drop of that magnitude (below $325 stamp price) down and I definitely think we are going to $300 and below. Either I'll make 5-6% or lose 5-6% pretty quickly with how the 5 minute chart looks like a 1h chart right now.

Just crash to $100-200 already with uber volume so we can get this over with already. This slow grind down is painful even from a trading standpoint.

Lessons learned from the BTC market as a young investor

1) Cost average sell into any bubble, and you will free up your assets and come out way ahead of everyone else on the backside of the bubble.
2) Cost average sell into any bubble, and you will free up your assets and come out way ahead of everyone else on the backside of the bubble.
3) Cost average sell into any bubble, and you will free up your assets and come out way ahead of everyone else on the backside of the bubble.
4) Cost average sell into any bubble, and you will free up your assets and come out way ahead of everyone else on the backside of the bubble.
5) Cost average sell into any bubble, and you will free up your assets and come out way ahead of everyone else on the backside of the bubble.

6) Do not call bottom and buy unless your intended position is a very short term hold.

That's about it. I happened to make most of my BTC during the alt craze after the bubble happened, so I've been cost averaging my sale down. But what a waste of time BTC has turned out to be over the past year for everyone that got in during or after the peak.

I wonder how many people are buying stuff they don't need at Newegg as another means of some kind of exit since options in this market are kind of limited.

Does anyone believe any rally is real anymore after the $400-$450 one? (And now we are trading at $340 today)

You should. A good degree and well paying job is a great in times like these. And not because you can buy more cheap coins.

There is no argument because the answer is we would not be. A rally to $400-$500 would just be another selling opportunity, and then the best bulls could hope for is a sideways market for the next few months. Only then could things start to turn bullish, imo.

Kind of glad I bought that SSD off Newegg this morning after the short rally to $350.

This is turning into a category 5 hurricane though! The aftermath of those usually aren't too pretty.

On hurricane category scale I'd say we're at about at a solid 3 right now.

The only way this happens if is there is the most epic short squeeze that has ever occurred in history. Which, if such a short squeeze is ever going to happen, it's going to happen in the Bitcoin market.

But otherwise, everyone wishing they had sold at $400, $500, $600, etc, will dump at any sign of weakness. In another words, too soon.

WTF 29K sell wall at $300???

Every time we have extended this far down, it has been followed by a rally equal in magnitude. So there is still a tiny, tiny bit of hope left?  

I guess there's always that early investor(s) who end up completing the bubble cycle. Because even at these prices, there's still a lot to be gained. And it's not like they have to sell off their entire stash. They can sell off 50% to secure millions and ensure that money, and still keep the other 50% for the long term.

Ok Bill Gates. You can buy up the entire BTC cap with a fraction of your wealth. Please save us from Russian oppression!

2014 should become known as "Year of the Cheap Ass Coin".

Well if it's all up from here, I get to claim I bought BTC at $2XX. I would have loved to claim that last December.

I hope it's the 4th of July again.

He's going to have to dump again because there is some upward pressure.

I'm thinking he might of screwed up. He took it down to the previous ATH when he should have just plowed through it while there was no buy support around it. Maybe he was hoping the market was going to take over. Now it's filling in and going to be more difficult to get it down there. Or maybe he bought all those coins at $2XX. Or maybe he just letting support fill in so he can dump more. Ugh, whale games.

Guys, we've been in a steep uptrend for a whole 6 hours!

And please don't kill BTC! I can never go back to real world markets after crypto. I mean, I have stocks that I never bother checking because they've changed maybe what, 10% in a few months?

This is going to turn out to be the largest 24 hour volume since the big bubble.

$10-$20K to earn $20K in a single day? More like $100K... (and that's if you called $275 to $330 perfectly and went all in and then out)

BTC swings up and down 20-30%. Total profit I made today : 1%. God I suck at trading.

Actually, this might be genius. Stamp volume has slowed to a crawl, but the other exchanges are still trading. He might be accumulating at $302 everywhere else.

Depends. If he can accumulate way more at other exchanges than he sells at Stamp, his goal is achieved. (If that is his goal)

Whale won't care about $2-$10 per BTC when in the bigger scheme the price moves much, much, MUCH more.

Next year we'll all be telling the story about the 30K Stamp wall when people freakout over a 5K wall.

Eat. There's plenty for everyone this time. Try not gorge yourself though.

Why does tomorrow have to be Monday? Got another hour before sleep then work so I'm going to miss some 20 hours of action.

Has a large BTC exchange ever gone totally flat while actually operating for this long of a time?

Feels like a pressure cooker for sure right now - flat lining a market that needs to move... there's no way we are at $300 when this wall is gone. But I'm not going to try to predict if its $200 or $400 we end up at.

Someone just moved in front of the wall?

India, then Africa, then Antarctica. Duh.

Whoever thought something as simple as straight line could be?

It's all about FOMO now. People know the difference between paying $250 or $350 BTC if BTC going to reach new ATHs is negligible (and lets be real, with all the adoption and paypal integrating next year, it's not going die, lol). But if you keep waiting for $250 you may never even pull the trigger at $350 and just completely miss out, and be nothing more than another "I wish" story later down the line.

I'm not expecting a rally right now. But I'm also not going to wait until $500-$700 "to be a confirmed up trend" before I buy again. That defeats the purpose of being heavily involved in a market. If I'm looking at charts and have no idea what is going in the market, then I'll play strictly by TA. But being involved with BTC and seeing everything that has come, either I cost average down, (or up) from here out. My trading strategy seems to work in the long run. While I'm not calling peaks and minimums perfectly, I still gain with patience.

And for the record, I'm not exactly ready to pay $350+ myself yet, though $300 and less is a start buying for me. (and I can afford to lose it all)

Fair enough. I can't disagree over the sideways grind that needs to come. So I'm more or less directing the original statement at the greedy bear trolls then.

StillCheapCoins™

*Places buy offer for $26 on BTCe just incase*

Edit, wait that's too low for what is available in the offer book. Ok, $102 it is.

To take it one step further. I don't think too many people realize that BTC is actually a great safe against the worst case scenario (ID theft). Someone who gets that information off you will have access to your credit cards, bank accounts, etc. But they may have no idea you have a hot BTC wallet, let alone a cold wallet which is as good as physical gold locked up in a safe. As BTC matures and becomes more stable, I will hold more and more value in it for this reason alone.

Yes stocks can be shorted the same way, except stocks are not generated every day (and can be effectively sold twice at market price due to shorting).

This is the bullshit the whales are exploiting. Get your BTC (all of it) off of BitFinex and other exchanges that allow for this. Overall the sell pressure is probably much higher than even shorts + naked shorts typically generate in the stock market.

I had this BTC dream last night that was good an bad. The good : In a two day span we witnessed the epic short squeeze that sent us to $800+. The bad : I was only up 30% in USD value from today's prices so I lost a ton or purchasing power. I was like "yes!!!.... no!!!!!".

Even I'm speculating in my dreams now. Now I know neither part of the dream isn't going to happen any time soon.

$400 on Stamp!!! 

A long at $400 can only lose $400.
A short at $400 can lose way more than $400.

Crazy shorts.

I also started seeing plenty of "Do not buy Bitcoin - See where smart Bitcoin investors are putting their money now"

Or something like that.

If you are unsure to buy or sell at this point :  If you take the first two letter of BUY and the last two letters of SELL, it spells BULL.

Just when you thought Bitcoin had survived the worst as the new calendar year turned with a pretty stable sideways moving price. Nope!

This market feels broken down to me. Volume is low at these prices. Like someone else mentioned, one would have expected more. Where are all the buyers? I sense we are in some kind of fear phase and you know what happens next.

I thought the last high volume bounce in October, followed by sideways and even very slightly increasing movement accompanied by the super spike to $480 signaled the end of the down trend. But here we are today at $270. It's damn ugly with no clear end in sight.

Hey now those still might actually 10x their $1 current day value in 2050+. I'm bullish on Beanie Babies.

This is like $1000 but in complete opposite.

At least there is still LTC?

Yeah, I only said that because it's ~4x quicker by default. Assuming BTC and LTC both slow down, you'd be looking ~20 minute BTC blocks and ~5 minute LTC blocks. This would actually make good reason for a network backed alt or two like LTC to exist.

Of course crypto nor BTC is done. But some bank accounts are.

How many "floors" can their be? 

New conspiracy thoery : Huobi and their Wirry bot are reading the way.

Stamp had some big buys earlier. I think whatever has been in motion is too strong to stop now. It just needs to play out.

Interesting how LTC isn't going with this at all recently. It's risen quite a good bit against BTC because its price has been a lot more stable while BTC has been free falling. Maybe LTC just can't be made more dead than it already is.

Done trying to trade this. Lesson learned. Do not trade capitulation, there are no rallies to be had. I've lost about 1% for every 2-3% this has dropped on average.  

No access for that. Next time around.

It's always Huobi leading these crashes. I'm starting to suspect something is going on with them and this is not a 100% legitimate move. They seem to flash down and then everything else follows. Whatever, result is the same in the end - how far down will the margins call.

It looks like three exchanges margin called there? Huobi and Stamp did for sure. Maybe Finex as well. BTCe actually held up. I'm not sure what to make of it. Was that the goal of all of this? There are no margins now until below $150 on Stamp and Huobi?

You guys get too happy over bounces. At least pretend to still be in despair if you made a nice low buy in the past 24 hours. Why make whales think they need to push this further than it has already gone.

Probably just some tight shorts that went off above $200.

Always could have should have and obviously would have. LTC at $1.3 or less might haunt me for some time.

At least I'm back in the green with my recent BTC attempted trades. Kept buying and reselling for less, and rebuying for less, etc, during that drop. Not going to get too ahead of myself but I'm hoping that crash was the equivalent of the July 2013 one.

Money isn't going to come overnight. I do expect this pull back again, but with news like this, I do wonder if its time to stop worrying about making profits on trades and just hoarding.

To make you think that you should do one thing, when you should really do another thing. So you should do what you think you shouldn't do. Because when you don't do what you think you should do, you end up doing the right thing. Crypto 101. Understand?

Let's see if we can hold the "magical $266" holds this time. Or is it no longer relevant?

What great moon news that would be

"World's most popular Bitcoin forum finally takes action against trolls, greatly improving the Bitcoin community".

Since everyone seems to be expecting that, I wonder if it will happen. I mean it really almost seems to obvious. Except now it's not obvious to me anymore!! Damn this game...

is this Huobi's real volume or something?

Surprise, yet another dump. But this one is of low volume. Could get some inverted hammers and a temporary bottom if it doesn't pick up.

There are those Elliot waves again on the 5-15m charts. Hopefully we've got the momentum to break resistance and get back to 250-260. Seem like we are on a "3" and up against a resistance so good probability to get to next support/resistance level on the "5"? If it were a "5" right now I'd be less optimistic. But maybe it already is a "5". See I'm a total noob with that but the more I guess wrong the more I learn.  

I'm looking at DRK's long term price and am wondering if this is where BTC is now. It had a similar overshoot back in August and that was its low. If BTC is (hopefully), then very little will happen in 2015 (which is actually what we want because the public may finally view it as finally having matured). Yes this is a much smaller cap alt, but alts do the same thing BTC has done, just on a smaller time and length scale due to liquidity. It's amazing how fractal trends look and it almost doesn't matter what it is trading against.

If this ends up happening, 2015 will be flat, and so coincidentally the 2016 block halving may be the time for a new rise?



Is it critical that the next week might be critical?

Not too worried about the Bitfinex spread just yet. Gox was fairly higher from what I remember. It something like $1240 in the 2013 bubble, when BTC-e couldn't even reach $1100.

We are going to have to get used to the $100 swings. Nobody cared when BTC went from $140 to $150 back in the day. Or even today, when LTC was recently trading in the $14 to $15 range - it's not really a big deal in cryptoland, relatively speaking.

Another order of magnitude higher and BTC will start to feel like its moving as slowly as the stock market with its multi-hundred dollar swings.

I'm kind of glad this pulled back. It was starting to get very high anxiety there. I'm not going to be able to sleep if/when BTC enters bubble territory (which I think begins at $1800). I'm still expecting it to pull back a bit further. It always get oversold on a minor time-scale compared to the longer trend.

If we were trading at a range of $130-$160, the movements wouldn't feel as intense. But now that BTC is way up here, the $100+ swings feel like a lot. We are going to have to get used to this!

You see glimpses of what's going to happen to BTC when the alt market finally really does dump.

Moral of 2017 - don't ever sell your Bitcoin. One day, people may look at anyone involved with Bitcoin before 2017 as the early adopters. Japan's effect on the price has been impressive and it has just barely started. I once thought $10K was crazy, but in a world where Bitcoin is pretty well accepted, I now believe that number is actually quite small. Even at $10K - Bitcoin is still worth significnatly less than Amazon, Apple, Facebook, or etc.

This micro bubble should lead to a micro bear market.

I'd rather see a series of these happen so Bitcoin can properly rise to $10K+ for the next block halving in 3 years, with solid support at many levels below, as opposed to bubble up to $4-5K this year, and then be followed by a 5 year long bear market where we test the $1200 previous ATH at some point way down the line.

This year could become remembered as the Great Fee Bubble of 2017.

With the number of unconfirmed rising rapidly now, and fees up above $1 and rising, a lot of Bitcoin could become locked out circulation, artificially shorting its supply. Even for those who wait hours and days for their transaction to go through - having the option to panic sell Bitcoin right now, without risking holding coin on an exchange for extended period of time, isn't really possible. This reduces selling pressure. The bubble would peak shortly after a scaling solution is reached (I think one will be - too much has been invested in Bitcoin to let another coin take to the top spot).

Psychological resistances... those never hold. I'm guessing the next one isn't until $2500. That's another nice round number that just happens to be about 2x the 2013 peak.

If you want to directly compare to 2013, we're only at about $475...

Keep thinking Bitcoin has moved a lot until I look at ETH and DASH. Seriously, Bitcoin would have to be trading at $12,000 to be on the same level as WTF as those two coins.

I'm thinking Bitcoin will push for a $100 billion peak market cap. I know that's still a long way off, and would put the price around $6000, but DASH and ETH just  broke the typical bubble cycle. Instead of returning to a despair phase, they went even higher. Never in my life have seen something like that happen. People will get burned so hard in alts this time around, but watching the price action among them makes me think Bitcoin is just getting started.

Looks more like the April/May 2013 one to me. So... double bubble $10K Bitcoin in 2018?

RIP to the shorts who lost it all.

Depends on the direction of the breakout. If it were to break down out the triangle, then there would be another move down. Since it's breaking up and out, this may be it for the dump. Expect it to retest the top of the triangle soon. If it holds, then its bullish. If it falls back into the triangle, then bearish. And if it doesn't retest the triangle, then obviously bullish.

I think we may be in the process of forming a much larger flag around $2500 on the 12h charts. The market needs a consolidation point badly right now. If it does, then bullish.

Quite the scary correction so far. Literally every single coin is dumping. I was worried about the altcoin bubble popping and bringing BTC down with it. We need some positive SegWit news this weekend!

1d chart had a shooting star, and now the 3d chart is getting close to forming one. We have a descending triangle now the 2-4h charts. It looks pretty bearish. I still believe Bitcoin will hit new highs later this or into 2018, but I wouldn't be surprised o see us enter a micro-bear market for a little bit and drop back below $2000. The 2013 run up had a similar drop from $750 to $450, before continuing on to $1200.

Otherwise, this run up wasn't even close to enough to cause a major multi-year long bear market.

Sums up my emotions today perfectly. (Gif)OTY imo.

It's near the mean of a very strong rise that started one month ago. The mean of a rise started in 2015 is around $1350 now. I don't think Bitcoin will drop that low, as it would require a drop almost immediately. The longer this movement plays out, the higher that mean becomes. But whatever happens, I'd rather see a bottom be reached sooner rather than later.

Imo, the biggest problem right now is ETH. It was $8 at the beginning of the year. It's so severely inflated, that if it keeps crashing, it's going to keep taking everything else with it. That's what happens when you let a competitor gain too much market share. It's stupid that I find in order for BTC to hold its price, or continue rising, that requires ETH to hold a 13x inflated price (since the beginning of March).

Bitcoin is really losing its grip on the market. Normally what would have been a dreadful day for LTC, is turning out to the opposite. LTC/BTC rising during a Bitcoin crash is as rare as a blue moon.

I'm fine with SegWit + 2mb, so long as the following 2mb hard fork code is tested extensively beforehand.

The low volume made the market feel exhausted to me. Bull sitting comfortably, but a lack of new buyers. And if ETH doesn't hold $300, it's going to start a domino effect and it will get very ugly in the altcoin market.

If we do enter a new bear market, it won't be a very long one. This blip we've had off the long-term trend is comparable to the one in 2012. So we'd be looking at a 4-6 month long bear market tops, with the lowest lows well above the previous ATH of $1200, imo.

For once I was spot on.

Unfortunately such a collapse is (and even obviously) effecting Bitcoin negatively too.

Right now BTC is holding the line pretty well, but I am getting the sense of fear and desperation in both the BTC and LTC subs. It's starting to feel a bit... impatient over there. It's a very different sentiment to that one in December. Either we've entered a new phase in crypto where one is going to need to be patient as the market caps are now much larger, or these impatient ones will be shaken out at losses at much lower prices.