Bitcoin is not magically cheap at $750, just because it was trading at $900 for a few hours, and twice bounced back.

That new money is going to the exchanges does not automatically mean that it will be invested the first day if the price is trending down and/or hitting a resistance.

Number of bitcoins to be sold in the event of crash trumps any and all new money easily.

1% of 12 million bitcoins = BTC120,000 = $100M

Current bid depth in all the exchanges combined = $70M.

So <1% of all bitcoins could crash the price to zero.

Of course they wouldn't do it, but it is just naive to think that only the buyers decide the price. In the short term it is very much the sellers who decide, because transferring fiat to the exchanges takes long, and if the sellers take it down like in 10-17. April, new money does not even want to buy any more in the following confusion.

Sure we can go up from here, but if we do, my previous estimate of going up to $2-$3k and then crash to way less than $1k remains valid. Even if the new money entering goes parabolic, increasingly more sellers emerge as they can finally cash out $millions, transform their life, AND leave enough bitcoins to become ultra-rich if the rise continues. This will put some dampener to the price, which is already much ahead of the exponential trend.

The double top and an intermediate term bear market remains a possibility. That would be something new

Funny that nobody is questioning why the price rocketed up before all the positive news and is now struggling...

$350 is cheap, it is the ATH from 15 days ago

$500 is a reasonable level to start buyback.

If you buy into the delusion of bitcoin singularity, remember it was me who prophesied it first.  

I've been there. The worst type of sell is the "damn, i could have sold at the top but didnt, lets sell now and hope it goes down"

knock knock i here opportunity  knocking

https://www.havelockinvestments.com/

has what looks like a very promising fund that still in IPO, but not for long!

Seedcoin Fund I (SFI)

check it out!

We are in the big downslope on the bubble phase chart.  Proof is by apophenia.  Question is what is the baseline.  On a linear baseline we're all doomed and the bears will gnaw our bones.  A linear baseline is utterly irrational, in my opinion.  The admissible choices are (1) logarithmic baseline in exp(5/4),  and (2) logistic baseline (some parameters for which remain unanalyzed).

he seems to not hate bitcoin.

that makes no sense, regulation would have made it tougher for the government to execute 9/11?

mah87 is the official PR of Ripple btw

+1   Best analysis I've seen all day

If Gox enables btc withdrawals, arbitrage will lower price on Bitstamp. Prices has been hovering in the 300-400 for 2 days with big volume due to continuous billy sell. Thinking goxers would relinquish the opportunity of instant double up, is just a bull's delusion.

If Gox continue to delay or imposes New quota on btc withdrawal, market will assume Gox is nearly insolvent..Price plummets.

Either way, price on non-Gox exchanges are currently over-valued.

This.  I'm not mad at him anymore. 

(Although it helps I don't have coins there). 

Volume is incredibly low.  

I just encountered BlackCoin and I think it's a very interesting pump concept.  The coin switched from PoW to PoS.  Now the only way to mine it is indirectly, and to facilitate that, there is a multipool, bcmultipool.com, which mines scrypt alts, dumps for BTC, and buys BC with BTC.  It then pays out in BC.

The effect is that every 20-60 minutes there is a market order for BC.  The BC bid keeps going up.  Also, whatever scrypt is leading the return on difficulty gets dumped.   If enough miners decide to take payouts in BC in this way, BC would then drain the marketcap of all the scrypt coins.

I like this idea, because I think its good for BTC.  It's a layered market, and it reduces the fog of uncertainty regarding competitors by dumping and crushing the value of a large number of trash coins.  Not sure if it is actually an improvement over just switch-mining with BTC payout, though.  I might be.