560

it went down hard from 600 key resistance

next one 500

I don't see it going down through 400.
(but might as well go to 200)

Will be buying at 400-450

I would say bottom at 400

I don't think 500 can hold. 400 could.

500 is toast

If 400 does not hold we'll go test 200

If 400 holds, reversal will bring us to 1000 within 10 days.

No. This is November 2013.

Bottom will be reversed very fast and furiously which was not the case in 2011.

If the double bottom at 475 holds, that will be very bullish for the next phase

Everyone turned into a bear already, which is also very bullish. That would mean we have bottomed.

700+ is still a good deal if you buy and hold. I bought some coins at 780 on the climb and will not put some downward pressure, quite the contrary

attacking 700 now.

1000 here we come

will be eaten up fast
fresh money coming online

the bull is back - it was a bear trap, and not a bull trap in a bubble explosion

who has still a doubt now ?

Even 900 could be the "trap" zone and form a double top.

So you will wait 950 to go back in and miss on an extra 250 USD ?

The time back in was 100 dollars ago, and now

getting ready I guess ?

5000 CNY will be eaten like a spoon of rice... for breakfast

let them sleep for now

It's been screaming buy the whole day, bears are decimated

Call them back at 1500

the 1000 USD mark will make lots of headlines around the world...

I have too much fiat compared to BTC holdings

Do you think 850 is a fair entry point ?

Could it be the last time we see 850 ?

Nothing to worry about, 400 USD will hold

I agree... I would love to see a deep correction to load up. But I don't see it happening.

What was a resistance is becoming a support. It feels to me like the market is getting ready for the run to 1000.

Why not ?

Exchanges have to sell their bitcoins to pay for their costs.
If an exchange is overcharging for too long, others will come and drive the transaction price down.

That would be great news. I have $30k waiting to be parked in bitcoin...

They said : "bitcoin went too high too fast, big bubble danger, stay away"

Bitcoin is currently not sustained by people who are influenced by mainstream media. Even in China. So I don't see this as bearish, it only reflects where we are at right now. The media is right to warn people, but the intelligent person knows that the media more or less doesn't have a clue.

Yes, this warning is good for bitcoin and for the chinese. It's maybe short term bearish. I didn't witness the mania in China and the public concerned by this mania so I cannot judge.

I don't know who you are referring to. There are two or three bears around but not more. Personally I don't feel a crash coming. I maybe wish one because I consider my exposure to bitcoin to be too low relative to my available liquidities and would like to make a big purchase. But I am not holding my breath.

I agree that there is a strong possibility that it continues up from here, which is why I am buying some anyways.

They might learn about it in the media, but they will create their own opinion about it.

Earliest adopters not - but last adopters ?

There is not even 10 ridiculous billion of dollars in bitcoin...

What would YOU say will be hit next on MtGox ?

750 or 900 ?

looking at gox it feels more like 850 will not hold much longer

I don't want a rally. I prefer slow, consistent move upwards. 

we just hit 975 on GOX

just bought 17 coins to encourage the bull towards 1000

No it reached over 1000 USD in China one week ago.
But priced in USD it will be the first time and yes, will be very notable.

This is maybe true, but what timeline are you talking about ?

If you could explain what is irrational about a 12 billion market cap for bitcoin based on the information available today ? Unability to understand something and rationality are two different things.

And are the current fiat currencies going back to zero before or after bitcoin ?

Value exists only in the minds of people

Unless we bounce harder on the 1000 resistance very soon, we are going to reach it within the next few hours. Even on small volume.

The longer it hovers around 950-970, the more momentum it will have once we break through.

Exactly. The longer we stay in this 950 range, the more powerful will be the take off from 1000.
It is a very good sign that we didn't run for 1000 at once. In these circumstances I expect a strong bull run from 1000 and bought 17 extra coins this morning.

A crash is possible but certainly not a law of the universe. I believe a crash right now would require some significant bearish news.
A crash is due as a law of the universe when the market cap goes beyond any reasonable expectation compared to the value.
The whole bitcoin system is now running at 12 miserable billions. This is peanuts compared to the value it provides. I would say the current information about the system and its recognition and expectations about the future should fetch a market cap of around 100 billions. An evaluation of the value is something personal based on your perception and understanding of the world. There is no such thing as an objective valuation, all valuations are subjective.

Now this last month many people had mass realisation about that value. Price adjustment based on value perception adjustment is solid and this is the reason why this is not a bubble.

It can make sense to wait for the next correction/crash, or not. It is very possible that the next crash brings the bitcoin price at a price significantly higher than today's price. For exemple, the price could collapse to 1200 after the next crash. Even then, you will probably not buy at the bottom of the next crash because that requires lots of courage, skills and uninterrupted attention. 

Saying there will be crashes is correct, but saying that the next crash will bring the price lower than today's price is a wild speculation, and very far from a "law of the universe". The last two days price action show lots of strength and stability.

Past market data could be meaningful, but there are also high chances that it is not the case. Awareness of bitcoin has changed over the last 3 months and it is being adopted in more countries, through more exchanges and platforms. There has never been so many people watching it, out of curiosity or waiting for an opportunity to get in. There has never been as many incentives to get one's money out of the system or at least part of it.

People have to wake up and realise that a 12 billion market cap for bitcoin is ridiculous. The US FED is creating 85 billion fresh US dollars every MONTH just to buy back the US debt that nobody wants anymore. That's 7 times the total valuation of the whole bitcoin system that is monetized out of thin air, every month. Most of this money is reinvested on the stock market pumping the biggest stock bubble of this century - which will not last much longer. What if only a fraction of this money started to flow towards bitcoin ?

When some serious money flows will start heading towards bitcoin we will quickly reach the valuation of 100 billions I talked about - and exceed it.

I am putting my money where my mouth is since I bought 17 coins this morning at 920. Buying bitcoin now is still cheap and I will buy more at 1000.

Just for the laugh

That's because BTC has to be quoted in mBTC. 4 figures is intimidating and inconvenient.

Surprised ? Who ?

When it was crashing from 900 and we reached 550 USD I said : It will fall below 500 but 400 will hold. If 400 holds then we will hit 1000 USD within the next 10 days. And here we are 7 days later... All correct.

Expect more of the same, going up strong with some corrections/ crashes on the way. For exemple we maybe hit 1600 before crashing back to 1200, then resume rise.

I believe it can again double by the end of the year to 2000 USD. A more conservative estimation is 1500 USD by the end of the year.
In 2014 I believe we'll witness the bull through the 4 digits with the 5 digits in sight. When we reach 5 digits is anyone's guess but I personally see it happen within 12 months.

But some very bearish news could also crash it back to 300... unlikely tough.
Also a technological breakthrough that would make new quantum computers able to crack bitcoin would crash it's value to about zero.
It would be too easy if there were no downwards risks involved.
In our situation I consider the upside potential to vastly surpass the downside potential. But the risk to loose it all exists... as it exists if you hold USD on a bank account or under your mattress - or gold in a safe somewhere...

Of course it is unlikely and would require a major breakthrough. I certainly do hope that it is highly unlikely! But breakthroughs do happen in technology. The greatest threat to a technology based currency is technology's progress itself.

Very impressive.
Bitcoin is doing a lot but percentage wise, LTE is blowing it. Let's see if LTE rise continues without big correction.

How do you know it's too late ?

Instead of feeling pissed for what you missed, feel excited and grateful for the opportunities ahead

I can calculate.
Not an excuse to feel pissed in my opinion.
The guy who bought bitcoin at 20 usd might have hesitated and have felt pissed looking at a past price of 0.3 usd. What is the point of making yourself feel pissed ? Regret is a waste of energy and a recipe to create more regret in the future. It makes no sense to me.

At that point there will start to have more professional use of the bitcoin as well. Why should that be an instrument only for consumers ?

Companies might very well decide to hold bitcoins and not only USD for future payments in bitcoins. Many businesses will not mind the exposure to the usd variations that are mostly to the upside anyways.

My company is selling online and we are adding bitcoin as a payment method, you can be sure I am deciding that the company will keep bitcoin payments as bitcoin.

Probably.

But LTE is in serious danger of over-correcting on the downside if there is a bitcoin correction.
I agree that the price seems slightly ahead of itself right now.

It just hit 40 USD right now

For the past week it has provided a much better return than BTC, but who knows about the next ?

BTC price going down on BTC-E.com. It's only 880 USD there !
Everyone selling BTC to buy LTC.....

I believe war would be very bullish for bitcoin and very destructive for fiat.

Most global scenarios in which the internet infrastructure survives are mostly bullish for BTC

Expect another big stream of headlines as BTC blasts through gold's price.

After the one ounce of gold mark, we'll have to look at the 1kg mark 

Regular money, the financial and monetary system, is much MUCH more of a ponzi than bitcoin...

The whole value of bitcoin is that it is not a ponzi and provides an exit from the ponzi system !

Not to mention that the price could shoot up from 1160 just after the sell. You would then either loose the spread with your buy limit order or loose a bitcoin if you don't go back in.

China likes to buy at ATH

I only feel good at ATH 

ATH @ 1241 usd , gold is getting very nervous at 1242

Not yet, when bitcoin hit 1242, Gold was at 1242.5 USD

Gold is now below 1242 but bitcoin has still never traded above gold at the same time

Ok it's done now. For the first time Bitcoin has traded above one ounce of gold.

The price quoted at that instant was on GOX : 1,244.09997 USD against 1241.8 for Gold on kitco.com

For some reason GOX didn't record the trade as new ATH

1 kilo of gold is like 44 000 USD

I would say 18 months from now

I don't think so.

If fiat would become redundant or worthless due to bitcoin success, we would be looking more into  $10 000  per mBTC rather than $10 000 per BTC ($10 million per BTC)

But that would be measuring using today's USD purchasing power. If USD becomes worthless and redundant, nobody will give a mBTC even for $10 million... So in this extreme scenario you need to use another unit of value. 1 ounce of gold is quite good.

I don't see fiat becoming redundant tough. That's an extreme scenario.

Why would anyone wire money to GOX in these circumstances ? At some point GOX will have to allow wires out otherwise they will lose their business. No ?

Gold isn't doing well mostly due to manipulation from the people who derive power from fiat emission and control. Mostly the families that own the banks and the fed.
They will probably come for bitcoin soon but manipulation will be much more difficult. They could buy lots of coins creating a spike and then dumping everything recklessly and crashing it, but I am not sure of their success. Gold is much easier to manipulate and discourage.

I agree that gold and silver are safer. At least as safe as your own physical safe !
But I don't think the run of gold to 1900 USD was a bubble at all.

Safe in the sense that gold and silver have been around for thousands of years and we know that it holds value well in all circumstances.
While bitcoin has been there for a few years and we are at a point in the history of humanity where nobody can possibly know where we are going at social/economical/technological/political/environmental level which creates much more uncertainty on bitcoin than on gold and forces to admit that bitcoin could be worth zero in a minority of scenarios while gold will hold its value with more certainty.

What is the kind of capital you are looking for for your business idea ?

People who don't know bitcoin are the last persons to present such an idea.
You should search amongst bitcoin enthousiasts. many are rich nowadays.

10K a pop means to blow the market cap from 14.4 billions today to 120 billions

Extremely small chance of that happening. 31th December 2014 yes, but 2013 no.
That would require some extremely good news triggering huge inflows of money from investors. I don't think the current infrastructure would take it.

It has little to do but to put things into perspective, Facebook has a market cap of 115 billions.

I agree. Furthermore mental health is a very relative concept.

The change of sentiment happens during and after the crash. It cannot be perceived before the crash. Before the crash sentiment is most optimistic. At the bottom sentiment is most pessimistic.

I was going to say that if 1150 does not hold, we'll test 1000

But if 1150 holds, I believe we'll test 1300 tonight or tomorrow

Yes this could be a bear trap before the run to 1300
or not

I would say we are in the take-off phase - at the junction between "Smart Money" and "Institutional Investment".
We will see.

mBTC is for miliBTC or one thousandth of a bitcoin.

Indeed, we don't say that google costs 1mUSD that would be 0.001 USD.
But people do say that google costs 1k USD per share. If the share of google would be say 22 543 USD, people would say it is 22K USD.
I think using mBTC is smart.

Just tried to buy one BTC on GOX @ market price and it does not work.
Status pending.

Does it mean too much volume for the platform to handle ?

My order just got filled on GOX : it took almost 4 minutes for a BUY Market Order !!

Or sell your dollars now and never buy them again, ever.

My order was filled at 943 USD, I am not crying.

You put the amount of BTC and you send the order. IT will fill in a few minutes at whatever the price is by that time. Good luck

Then GOX will only buy as much as your USD allows and keep the rest of the order as pending

I was filled at 919 USD on this last down leg with no problem. The trick is not to use market order.

These news are already widely known amongst market participants. If that would trigger a crash, the crash would have already happened. China is going to bed now, it's old news already.
Sheep Market is even older.

You cannot anticipate the market based on old news. You have to anticipate the news.

I don't say there won't be a crash, maybe there will. But I think more bad news would be needed for that.

We might have good support at 900 with a double bottom but it can also be argued that we have a double top at 1240.
I think we probably go to find more support a third time before attacking ATH.

Already sub 600. We will probably visit 450

I think bottom could be found around 450.
If not then maybe old ATH at 265.

 

it says the trend is down (until it isn't)

A bull trap does not mean all the bulls are trapped  

Just the people who buy on this ascend

700 is still far from solid. If it holds another 24h then yes, it will become solid.
Problem is, if 700 holds for another 24h, we might be at 900 then.
But the potential downside is more pronounced short term than the upside so it is risky to buy now.
Short term we could go from 750 to 900 on the upside but we could also go from 750 to 450 or less.

For this reason this 750 is more like a sell right now. If the outlook is long term then buying now is fine.

It does not look to me like 700 is holding this time.

POLL: Are we looking at the last coins under 1000 USD this year ?

This is a speculation thread. Nobody knows anything.

There are many more peaceful and quiet investments out there. (more or less everything else)

TA matters mostly because a significant amount of market players believe it will matter, thus influencing their behaviour according to the TA.
It is a kind of self-fulfilling prophecy.

denial of ?

The price would not be 450 USD if everyone was expecting a rally...

We are probably months away from a rally. Which does not mean we'll see new lows.

All speculators exiting at the same time would require that everyone recognizes at the same time that bitcoin has no value whatsoever. Of course 50 USD would be crushed. The probability of that happening right now is close to 0.
Millions of USD are being invested by angel investors in the infrastructure right now, hundreds of ATM are being planned and installed. The money is not going in the bitcoin for now but in its infrastructure.
When bitcoin price is going up, it increases the relative return on capital on companies and infrastructure investment as compared to direct bitcoin investment. Which means more interesting to invest in infrastructure. As the money is going to infrastructure, it is not going in BTC anymore which is depressing the price while investments are being made in infrastructure (current situation).

The last bull run has triggered massive investment decisions in the startups and infrastructure. This money is going "in" bitcoin but not affecting the BTC price. Yet.

I agree it's very unconvenient.

This is why we use separators for numbers with many digits :  9,000,000.045 - to improve readability.

We should move the decimal at least 3 digits further : 2.18 BTC = 1 USD

There is no evidence that their goal is to reduce their personal exposure to bitcoin through their ETF. If that was their goal, they would slowly sell on some exchanges. Why bother going through all the hassle of creating an ETF to reduce your exposure ? Does not make sense.
Having lots of BTC at their disposal allows them to create the required credibility and initial reserves backing up the ETF. However the ETF will be actively trading in the back-side and most likely buying enough BTC to cover their customers shares.

I don't see how someone rational can come to that conclusion.
Risk/reward ratio not that great ?

People who evaluate the risk/reward ratio of bitcoin as poor really deserve to sell now, more or less at the bottom.
I don't think there is any investment that has a better risk/reward ratio - unless you are extremely risk averse.

Well I am buying. And all the bitcoins for sale at 400-430 have been bought. If you have BTC for sale at 430, contact me.
Enough people are buying to take out of the market all mined coins, seized coins, stolen coins for sale and all the coins used for purchases.
We were not seeing many people buying during all flat periods. Normal, healthy.
Actually many more people are buying BTC during this flat period than during all past flat periods, at least in USD terms.
Wedge is going all the way to mid-june, we should remain more or less flat until then.
Everything happens through cycles. Most of the buying of bitcoin happens during short periods of time when people become afraid of missing out. Nobody knows when such period will start again. Many know that it will soon enough.

The reasoning is not that simple.
It is more like "if the price increased 10 times last year, and if the adoption is still growing while having more room to grow, and if the adoption as a percentage of potential users is still way below 5%, and if there are signs that the next wave of adoption is being prepared in a convincing manner through entrepreunarial dynamism"
then the probability that we will witness at least a 10x increase in the next 12 months is far higher than the probability of a drop of 90% or more of the value. And this is enough to take a rationnal decision in terms of % of your investment portfolio to hold in BTC.
If you cumulate each probabilities that it will rise 2x, 3x, 4x, 5x, 6x, 7x, 8x, 9x, 10x, etc.... during the next 12 months, and you average it against the probabilities of a drop of 10%, 20%, ..., 60%, ...,90% during the same period. Then you find that reward potential far exceeds the risk of loss. Therefore, there still is an optimum amount of BTC to hold for virtually all investors in the world that is higher than zero.

Right now it makes no rational sense to have any kind of liquid investments (cash, metals, bonds, stocks, ...) while holding 0 BTC. Such a position cannot be defended (or only with sentiments) and prevents the investment holder from reaching an optimum allocation for his risk profile (whatever that is).

I see it as inevitable that at some point in the not very distant future, investment advisers, portfolio managers, funds and other investors will understand this. Such an evolution can only bring the BTC capitalisation to the trillion dollars range. I believe it would happen on its own, even without the current debasement and implosion of the current debt-based financial system. The current slow-motion collapse of the global financial system since 2008 only increases the probabilities in favor of BTC against other investment classes.

What is interesting is the marginal cost of a transaction, not the average.
In other words : how much does it cost for the system in place to generate one more transaction ?

That was, erm, wrong !

What makes a significant rise cannot be measured nominally.

Bitcoin has now risen 50% since its last bottom and approx 25% in a week, most of which happening in the last couple days.
People are getting excited because this is sending very strong buy signals to the market.

What are the arguments of Jorge in doubt of bitcoin success ? Could you please point to some posts where his thoughts are well developed ?
thanks

So what increased that fear of sending coins to exchanges in the last 10 days ?

You mean 1.35 billion.

Capital controls actually make bitcoin more attractive to wealthy chinese than to wealthy people living in free capital countries. People in free capital countries know they can enjoy their money wherever they go in the world. People in China not. What is better for them than to hold some of their wealth in BTC ?

At this rate, 700 by Tuesday - if not tomorrow evening.

The current trend since the breakout would bring us to 800 by next Sunday.
But I don't think we'll maintain the same speed. It's been too linear which is unusual. I think we'll either stop and correct soon, or accelerate towards 1000 with growing volume.

Is the price today low or high compared to the price on 1 July ?

You can use a third party like bitgo.com to secure your coins and nothing can happen to them, even if bitgo disappears. Convenience meets with security.

A lot of high net worth, major corps and investment funds are investing into a 8 Billion capsize, very little of which is for sale ?

Such entities investing in bitcoin in a conservative manner would bring the price at least 100 times higher.
Such entities investing in bitcoin aggressively would bring the price about 1000 times higher.

These entities still have not touched bitcoin with a pole stick.

Sure, some private deals have been made here and there. But if we talk about the macroeconomic aggregates of "wealthy individuals", "major corporations" and "investment funds" on a global basis, I don't think 0.1% (1 out of 1000) of these entities have invested anything significant in bitcoin.

Many like 1 out of 1000 ?

The combined wealth of all HNWI in the world is 50 trillions USD (without their primary residence). If only 1% of these people would put only 10% of their wealth (without home) in BTC, the market cap would already be 50 billions.
That's only 1% of them and only 10% of their wealth without home.
And that's without talking about any other entity.
And that's assuming that all early adopters sell them their coins.

A few HNWI claiming they bought bitcoins in the media is not representative of what is happening. I maintain that HNWI still didn't touch bitcoin (0.1% could not be considered meaningful).

and then up or big time up

And 650 was very cheap last November.

Fiat is a ponzi scheme in the sense that the monetary system works in a way where all money in existence is created in the form of Debt - with interest. So you have to constantly grow the monetary base to repay the interests of the previously created money with new money that is itself more debt and requires more interest which requires more money as debt etc... So it truly is a Ponzi and can only collapse at some point but it is benefiting only the few that control the global monetary system. A fiat monetary system that is not a ponzi could be created by emitting the FIAT directly and without liability to this emission, the counter party of the fiat being the work of the participants in the economy. Yet it has not been designed in this way but has been designed in a way that gradually enslaves the majority of the population and shifts most of the wealth in invisible hands.

On the other hand bitcoin is not a ponzi because it is an asset that is not the liability of someone else. If you have a bitcoin, nobody owes you anything about it. You just have your bitcoin and nobody else is involved in this position. It's like gold. Who could say that gold is a ponzi ?

A ponzi implies centralisation and fraud. Centralised fraud is used to influence the expectations of the investors based on the creation of false past and present returns. The money of new investors is used to hide the fraud by actually paying these false returns to first investors instead of giving new entrants their fair share in assets.

Bitcoin does not have returns - it only appreciates or depreciates based on its current utility and anticipated-utility in the future.
Bitcoin does not have centralisation that can hide parts of the information about it's use and nature - everything is in the open in the blockchain.

It's simply an asset that can crash or explode higher without counter party liability.

Therefore, using the word ponzi for the global monetary FIAT system is appropriate. Yet using the word ponzi for the bitcoin ledger system is not appropriate.

Where ?

Yes, I mostly see desperation and gloom being sold here. Not really people "luring newbies"...

Do you know how much money you can make by shorting BTC from 380 to 100 USD ? Just go to bitfinex and send your BTC to take your position.

It's called trying to catch a falling knife. Bitcoin has been falling hard and there is no sign of reversal.
Why not to buy at 300 USD instead ?

If this chart is an accurate description of the situation, we are now between fear and capitulation and we should go lower than 200 during the despair phase.

We heard that one for how many months now ?

The coins are never "gone". What is being sold today can be again sold tomorrow by the buyers of today. How do you know the buyers of today are holders ? If their expectations are not met, they might very well sell as well.

When you pull too strong on the spring, it bends and breaks.

Maybe, but there is no indications that we have reached or will soon reach an extreme.

This is looking like the start of a new bull run.
2500 USD by September.

2500 USD for this summer period

But contrary to all previous tops, I don't see a big collapse happening. There will be a significant correction but we will not have a long dead valley anymore.

1. Chinese people are very many. 1.3 billion people. It's like 4 USA.
2. The growth in China in the last 10 years created many rich people
3. China has very strict capital controls which means that people cannot easily convert their YUANs to other currencies or transfer their money in other countries
4. Chinese can transfer Yuans within China to buy Bitcoin with Chinese exchange.
5. Bitcoin is becoming a fashionable investment instrument in China

Why to get nervous ? If you see a big dump, you will see a higher top later.

Yes, I bought 5 coins at 850 EUR which was close to 1000 USD in end of November 2013.
Hopefully I bought most of my coins between 200 and 400.
I have never sold BTC, only bought.

1. Down, up, down, up, up, up

2. Supply and demand.

I am sorry to spoil the party but...
s we are approaching all time high, the transaction fees are spiking as well !

https://bitcoinfees.info/

We have now just broken through 50 cents per tx for the 3 blocks fee !

The network is bloated and reacts to the bloat by an increase of transaction prices to try to limit the increase in transactions.

That's NOT a good thing folks 

When you think the price tonight will be either 850 or 1700 USD... it's kind of wild.