Same thing in my opinion. Backing you up quoting that thread : https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2767926.0

Btc doesn't follow a pattern but we can see that every jan, there is a drop. Same shit, different year.
https://k60.kn3.net/C/6/8/A/E/0/6F9.jpg

Hello again 5 digits.



HODL

Heh. Every problem has a solution.

Small but nice buying wall on kraken :

(seems image doesn't work in my browser, here's the link : https://imgur.com/H7rjPTw )

Massive buys in December was due to trend and noob newcomers wanting their piece of the cake (so they bought at >12-13k).
Usual January FUD and down = LOT of those noobs panic selling.

I'm in bitcoin since 2013, introduced some of my friends to it it September, and all of them are pretty relaxed (eventhough they're noob) because they didn't buy during the bullrun.

Never understood why that was an argument against bitcoin.
1% of people own 99% of global resources and it never seemed to bother anyone.

Good morning everyone.
It appears that btc did a nice +200€ during the night, is that a sign that the FUD is decreasing and the traumatism of the recent 'crash' is almost over for the noob community ?
Or am I too optimistic here ?

Well, following every line of tendency on such a graphic led people to lose a LOT of money buying at 19k.
All I'm trying to do is find some sense in that sort of fading sinusoid.

Plus, the scale is relevent. Change it and it changes everything.

You can't be sure about that, the context has changed a lot.

I just did a small google research of 'bitcoin' between dec 2013 and april2014.
I found a lot more bullish news (except the ones about gox) than FUD.

Nowaday you have a clear "Afficionados vs Banksters (a.k.a. govs, warren buffet like dinosaurs of finance, etc...)" battle.

The bitcoin is being known, but we are at the beginning of the curve of adoption. The amplitude of that curve is being played right now.

True that the FUD news are starting to fade away.
I see more and more bullish articles on google news : samsung starting to create ASIC hardware, lightning network newcomers (just look at google trend https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?q=lightning%20network ), the guy who was robbed and forced to give his bitcoins (feel sorry for him but maybe the average dude will see this and think "oh so that bitcoin thing is actually valuable"), etc...

I don't see why the price would continue to drop.
Plus, mluc called bottom at 9k max and then an increase to 40k-110k by the end of 2018 so, hey. Hodl.

Well 7500€ would still be 300$ higher than the lowest possible bottom called by masterluc.
Nothing creepy and shouldn't last long.

But if it go lower than that I think I'll start shitting myself a little.

Who the f.ck is selling sub 9k Oo
Makes no sense to me

Goddamnit its moving way too fast for me. From 7k7 to 9k in what, 3 hours ?

Plus, the 24h volume is insane. Don't know if it's a good sign, given that we are in a downtrend.

Damn... such a drop, going for +1month straight... Its been a  while. I think the recovery will be long. With all the optimism I can deploy, I would say maybe 15k usd by the end of the year. (Or less...)

BUYING WALL OF 500 BTC AT 7845USD OF KRAKEN. WE ARE SAVED.


.... I wish

Well I can't stop wondering who the hell is selling at 40% of ATH.
Everybody who bought during the bull run would sell at lost. Those who bought earlier came before btc went full hype, so I think those guys should have more the hodler profile or similar.

So my best guess is, weak hands afraid to lose more than they already have money are actually selling at lost + whales dumping + guys speculating on the decreasing price as you do.

But all of that for one whole month of practically straight decreasing ?
Come on I need to breathe.

One magically new ATH right would please me so freaking much  

Sounds kinda weird to me. The fire power needed for such a crash... Plus, they would be selling at lost on purpose. That would be purely burning XX% of your money just to keep the other %. Unless they bought before the bull run but I doubt it. More like they caused the bullrun.

Well I just don't have any money to buy. Darn if only I sold just a bit at 20k... Could have bought back

I would say that I already accumulated (since I mined a few in 2013 and then martin galed until ~5-6btc). I have hodl since. But after last december that I felt really dumb, having miss a beautiful oportunity. So now I trade a bit but I'm pretty shy in my orders. I have a feeeew selling at ~9k € in case of a bounce and Im initiating to shitcoins trading to earn more btc.
Currently dont want to inject my fiat in that, it would be too bad to sleep in the streets for the sake of hodling an accumulating

So... sell a bit to take profit next week ?   

Here I am, all out of fiat... My greatest dilemma : to buy I must sell first.

I have a feeling that the 6k€ support will be eaten soon... That's it, I sell just a bit to buy back after.

That's precisely my penultimate buy order

Most of the users filled the survey before the continuing of the downtrend. Plus, people tend to be optimistic since mid January, didn't stop bitcoin from falling to 7K5usd... Best thing to do now is to hope that the bottom is near, try to buy at that level and wait for the recovery. But the possibility of a long bear market is growing higher in my mind... Damn it, please someone send me fiat so I can buy cheap coins just in case  

Why would it be likely to reach the same proportion ? The context is entirely different.

Involving that we still are in a bull market. Plus, I think you can make a graph tell anything when you play with a logarithmic scale.

PS, real question : Can someone tell me if a similar type of chart helped them in the past ?

Why would I do that ?
I currently am hodling 70% of my btc on a wallet. So, yes, I sold a bit of the other 30% to try gaining profit (became a bit of a FOMO guy since last December-January).
I'm sure sanity will be back at some point, the question is when ? And can we rob the panic sellers until then ?

Anyway, a recovery to 16k by april, like the chart you linked suggest, seems a bit optimistic to me.

Well... Just took a look at https://bitinfocharts.com/top-100-richest-bitcoin-addresses.html and it seems like whales are purely playing with the market.

Looke at those adresses (top 4 of the blockchain adresses in term of number of bitcoin detained) :
One dumps 7000btc, the other buys 7000 btc, one dumps 20k btc, the other buys 14k...

Should we expect a massive rise, as that they have played with the market to make it sink and will surely make it rise to gain profit ?

Yes, I just grabbed examples. If you look further, you can see wallet IDs with +10000, +2000 and such.

BTC/EUR depth seems balanced, however the BTC/USD depth show some sign of weakness in the selling side.
Come on you rich people, buy all that  



edit : screenshot taken on kraken 1 minute ago (PS : woops, sorry for the image size)

I think I found the safest way to hodl.

I was just about to push the sell button when suddenly, +200€. Come on, fly again ! ...please !

And it will likely be a fork of it. So in anyway, hodling is the way, but damn... I would like to stop clenching my buttcheeks, It has already been a month.

And how do you qualify non quiet hodler that are shitting themselves right now ?  
And I'm hodling since 2013, maybe I'm too emotional

Seriously, how can we keep hitting new lows again and agai ?
What are people thinking about ? Is everybody here trying to sell now to buy back at a later dip ?

And how is that ? Bitcoin has a speculative value, claiming "It's not worth that price" is a nonsense.

Ok fine. Just sold a bit now and then I'll go long with leverage once it dips more.
And if it doesn't dip anymore... well that's fine for me. Win-(half)win scenario.

Watch out for the next 5K€ resistance being eaten alive.

Well, let's go long on bitcoin. Wish me luck guys.

Good night everybody.

Hodling sux, go LONG  

Pretty happy that I did last night at 5k€  

One thing that I learned is that the depth chart doesn't mean shit, really.
Just watch yesterday depths, it was bullish all the way down (made a post about it on this thread).

You're right, maybe it is.

(behold my mad paint skillz)



But I want to believe. Still haven't taken profit from my yesterday's long.

"Again going down" when and how ?

I only see a +900€ since last night.

edit : Oh I'm sorry, +1000€

Why not 12k $ ?

We are currently feeling a small resistance at 7200usd / 5900€. Come on btc, you can do it.

It's not over yet. If we can go through this resistance, we may bounce higher.
Anyway, I don't think we can go much lower than 6K usd, it would bring us back to several monthes earlier and I think there is still a lot of money from people that sold early during the crash.

...by what ?

Interpreted news by fudsters as always. Let's see how those fuckers react when the bitcoin recovers.

How ?

Since when an high volume'd uptrade is bearish ? 

Higher volume with higher prices. Come on, just moon already.

Why, hello there.

Same wall in USD. Some fellow don't want to let us down.


Our true hero 

Because, as an environmental disaster himself, he must know his stuff. 

 

Thanks bruh  . Wanted to use more leverage but those kraken fuckers didn't let me

I have mixed feeling about this. There is two battling facts that may make the price go back there or not :
-On one hand, many newcomers lost a lot of money during the crash, instantly turning them into fudsters.
-On the other hand, showing to the people that the value can fluctuate this fast may reinforce the "fast money making potential" feeling of people who watched btc but didn't buy.
Plus, it shows the bright side of the cryptoworld : witnessing a price recovery after one hell of a crash.

Here we are, testing 7k € / 8k5$.

Pump must go on.

Too soon to tell. It may be, but it may also be some locally regular pattern.

Like this (behold my m4d gr4phist skillz)

I don't want to be a dick but can we please go back to btc related posts ?
Sorry guys, love you 

Let's be rational. Bitcoin can't recover the same way it crashed. Despite the local low peak, we are still bullish for now. Buyers who missed the train, it's your opportunity.

What the fuck is going on with this thread 
I have a solution for all of you that will recenter everything around bitcoin : make a trading contest and whoever wins will be right 


...also, the loser will have to give me 30% of his btcs

For now the biggest resistance will be 7k € as, if you look ΰ the chart  (cant link it I'm on my smartphone), it was the price just before the bullrun. I predict a few day of stagnation at this point and then extra bullishness if we go through it.

Here, some graph to support my earlier post (sorry I'll talk in €).

So this is how uncertain we are (and yup, that's some sort of symetry we have here since the bullrun).
My prediction is, if we break the 7k€ resistance, we will go pretty much straight to the next ~9k€ resistance zone, maybe in the top of it, or maybe break it and go beyond.
We may stay in this resistance for some time.
If we bounce, from the 7k€ resistance, we may go back go 5k€ and bounce again (unlikely, given the volume we had sub 5k€).

Here you go

Naaah. We are just going sideways. Wait at least tomorrow to see a significant change.

AAaawh come on bitcoin, you can just lose 300€ in 2h like that after the slaughter of 3 days ago. I need to sleep at night.
Anyway, it seems normal to me (stressful normal but still normal). We'll be having trouble if it falls below that point :/

I'm not ready for a new drop

Guys come on. Nobody gives a crap about IQ debates, pen, or other stuff.
Just go there for that : https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=9.0

We are not over the resisrance zone yet. Just a few more € and we should step up fast to 9k2€. (But it is still possible, even if unlikely, that we bounce down)

Small 400 btc selling wall on kraken right now. Future uprise scaring some bears ?

I don't know but... if its true then the total 17 000 000 btc in circulation is ~0.07% shorter. Heh, more deflation. Bullish.

FTFY.

Machine do what they are asked to do.
Some machine learning algorithms (such as artificial neural networks) are based of the biomimetism principle, but the result is not even close to the reality.
Biomimetism implies two things :
-Our comprehension of the living is still very limited. Hence, genetic algorithm, artificial neural network, etc... are by essence incomplete. You can see this that way : an artificial neural network is 10% (or 20%, it is very subjective here) nature inspired, and 80% pure engineering.
-Even with a full comprehension of nature processes, the algorithms outcoming of our attempt to mimic them wouldn't copy 100% of the reality, cause you know, organic cells (or organic processes in general) > transistors. Maybe this will change with major disruption in technology, for example a fully functionnal quantic computer.

For now, biomimetism only gives us some general paradigm that emerged naturally. And it works because Nature is just damn well made. But as long as we don't understand the truly meaning and processes of a thought, we'll never have a sentient machine. Scifi stories where some creator kinda randomly create true (artificial) intelligence is pure fantasy.

Never argued the opposite. As I said, the current state of the art in machine learning doesn't do it and works fine (for a certain number of use cases).



I'm not really aware of the literature about generated code but I highly doubt that algorithm created code is THE key to sentient machines.


No we didn't, but we just did like nature did for birds and fishes. Test, fail and try again.


Hell no we are not. It is like saying that machine are better at nailing stuff because they can nail much bigger stuff or much smaller stuff. Or better at math because they can do incredibly fast calculation. Yet, no machine ever won a nobel prize. As I said, living things are infinitely better, much more efficient, etc... (organic) machines than the one we can create.
Computer science coupled to engineering make marvelous things to help human, but they are still tools and will remain tools until a looooong time.


I'd love to see that. (No seriously, I'd really love to see that. Time series analysis are part of my studies. Plus, I'm quite bad at trading)

Trying to clarify this prediction more (which, until now, was accurate) :


The price didn't bounced off the 7k€ resistance.
I took the period of high volume, determined the min and max moving average of the price, and it highlights some resistance we can find.
Taking that into account, it makes me more bullish for what will come next.
(following chart is still in €)

Hahaahaha I lost my shit

Update of this post :


It seems hard to follow the initial uptrend.
No reason to be bearish yet though. As shown on the following figure, the moving average trend is still going up and we just broke the value trend by a tiny bit.



If I zoom to a very close range, we can see that we tend to go back in the initial value based trend, no bounce on the bedrock needed.

  Offense taken.

I myself introduced a few of my twentysomething friends to crypto. As you said, they didn't put a lot of money into it, but it's something

I don't I'm just bugging you
I have seen a research highligthing that young adults give much more interest to crypto than traditional stocks so yes you probably don't know the right twentysomething
Sounds bullish for the future though.

Update from this post :


As expected, we came back in the initial value based uptrend. Given the small breakthrough there was yesterday, I adjusted the value based uptrend.
Nothing new under the sun, still bullish, slowly goind to the next resistance. We will stand in this trend, as the trend become more and more precise, unless some major bad news.
The volume is still pretty standard-low since 08/02, so the trend is still pretty vulnerable.



I'll hodl for now, more profit may be taken later (unless you want to trade on the swings, which I'm terrible at).

D: what the fuck is that ?
Blockchain.info bug and then mempool size double ?



Edit : Are we facing a mempool attack ? Look at all the 1-2 sat/byte transactions...
https://dedi.jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#24h

Oh, hello there Buy pressure.

Dang it. All my alts sucks, total alt bank lost 17% btc value

Oh yeah I don't worry at all, just invested like 10% of my btc in alts. (And invested nothing in btc in the first place so I'm feeling quite free to experiment stuff)

Aaaand I tried to surf on the ltc/btc spike. GOD I'M SO BAD AT SWING TRADING

Update from this post :


So far so good, nothing really unexpected. We definitely broke the last resistance.
The good news is the trend seems to get stronger and stronger. In fact, there is, as shown on the figure, the beginning of a volume spike. This straighten the uptrend and will help the price to rise again if it bounces off the next resistance. That makes the "worst" short term future scenario bullish. The best case scenario is btc price stagnating a few days in the next resistance, enough to gain momentum and break it.



Profits are in the buying side, of maybe a bit of selling if you expect some bouncy swings.

Indeed.
I think, for all the potential buyers out there, I have found the cryptocurrency consulting website we need right now.

http://www.isittimetobuybitcoin.org/

 

Update from this post :


We are just digging through the resistance like it was butter. We will stay in the bullish channel until the next big PHAT resistance.
It's gonna be pretty nasty, this resistance took some pretty huge swing during and after the bullrun. It won't be the end if we bounce, but if we go through, I predict that we'll enter a full bull market for the next following monthes.




EDIT : 1 day candle reverse head and shoulder pattern emergence :

You do know that I only interpret what I see, right ?


Look at the previous posts I made. Almost everytime I mentionned how the price could bounce and go down. Just gave my opinion about why it could go up. And surprise, it's going up !

Nothing to worry about for the moment, the resistance is just a bit tougher than we thought.
Stagnation and high volume will give btc some momentum to break it.

Nah, it'll be fine.
There is some support down there. Long opportunities coming.

The whole next year is critical bruh

Well, fuck.