All posts made by exstasie in Bitcointalk.org's Wall Observer thread
1.
Post 3607957 (copy this link) (by exstasie) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.23h):
I think the price might actually climb after the senate meeting
I was thinking this, but now that so many people think it, I'm starting to doubt it.
I think it might increase as well. Maybe a lot of new investors will find out more, or do some more research after the senate meeting. As they say, there is no such thing as bad publicity.
2.
Post 35047453 (copy this link) (by exstasie) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.52h):
I'm a TA n00b, but AFAIK, flat action after a substantial pump is bullish.
Yup, bullish consolidation. If we zoom in on the 1-hour chart, the last three dump attempts were fiercely rejected. Much like the three dump attempts in the $6,000s on the 1-day chart. On the 4-hour chart, we also have a failed bearish H&S, so bears should be sweating now:
Bullish engulfing on the daily chart, and dragonfly doji on the 2-hour. This all looks very promising.
What a weird chart.
Those dumps that keep full retracing.....my technician friend and I call them "Livermore turns." It's usually an accumulation pattern.
3.
Post 35367045 (copy this link) (by exstasie) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.53h):
Due to it's deflationary and borderless nature, central banks will eventually be forced to hold BTC as a portion of their currency reserves.
Forced? Yea, no. Nothing is a real commodity currency unless you can hoard it and force others to pay you ransom for it. Bitcoin has NO such fucking characteristics. It doesn't matter if you idiots try and hoard dogecoins or bitcoins, there is nothing you can do to force me or anyone else to buy your pump and dump.
I don't think the comment was intended literally. Central banks and governments might be forced
by market demand (not literal force) if there is significant global wealth transfer into BTC.
This is the same reason central banks hoard gold as a monetary hedge (in spite of its lack of utility).
4.
Post 35743114 (copy this link) (by exstasie) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.53h):
Bitpay back to their old shenanigans. I’m getting transactions confirmed within a few blocks at 5 sat/WU or less and theyre increasing that by a cool 1500% with their BS “network fee.” Tried to charge me 0.000111 BTC earlier today at a time when my mempool was pretty empty. Is it just so they can be like “BTC network fee over $1, BCH network fee $0?”
Annoying as they’re really the only game in town. I noticed Gyft dropped Coinbase, and I really never see them used otherwise except for when I paid my Tradingview subscription last. BTCpay never took off either.
5.
Post 35743694 (copy this link) (by exstasie) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.53h):
Annoying as they’re really the only game in town. I noticed Gyft dropped Coinbase, and I really never see them used otherwise except for when I paid my Tradingview subscription last. BTCpay never took off either.
Coinbase appear to have offloaded the responsibility for private keys onto merchants with their new system. A very weird move as most of them are going to throw it in rather than have to deal with that.
Wow, that’s crazy. Most merchants want a simple drop-in payment solution..... they’re not trying to build a wallet system that interacts with Coinbase API. At that point, they’re better off scrapping the merchant agreement entirely and selling directly on GDAX.
6.
Post 35852805 (copy this link) (by exstasie) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.54h):
Are there any good analysis of how much BTC Bitmain holds?
No way. They point their hash rate at several different pools and it's impossible to tell in what proportion, or to really follow the payouts. Supposedly Jihan Wu has remarked in private that he controls a majority of the hash rate. Considering Bitmain's position over the past couple years..... someone in that position is highly incentivized to withhold supply from the market too. I wouldn't be surprised if Bitmain's coins outnumbered the Satoshi coins. But who knows? We'll never know...
7.
Post 36200788 (copy this link) (by exstasie) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.54h):
1-hour still looking bullish. Looks like we're retaking the 200MA as support after full retracing the April 30th dump. Just need to hold these lows. It definitely looks like dips are being bought.
My general take is this is a bullish sideways. Still waiting for new highs above the 1-week high ~ $9,765. Once that range breaks, sellers are going to be trapped and shorts will squeeze.
A lot of alts are still looking bullish; ETHBTC continues to grind the upper band on the 1-day. Money flowing into alts rather than cash is always good for BTC.
8.
Post 36343706 (copy this link) (by exstasie) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.54h):
There's still like some % chance of that huge crash from 11-13k down to new bottoms, no?
Or even straight down from here.
Maybe tera means all the off topic.
Probably a 50% chance we crash from 11-13K, a 25% chance we crash right now, and a 25% chance it passes 13K.
You got a chart, volume profile, etc to show why $13K is significant? If the double top ~ $11,800 breaks, a lot of sellers are going to be trapped and squeezed. It could easily still be a bull trap, but a $1200 fart from that breakout....then doom? That seems a bit hard to believe.
9.
Post 36748059 (copy this link) (by exstasie) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.55h):
we are still in a large wave 3. the lower the longer the better for bulls.
Wave 3?! Chart me, please. By my count, we are well into a primary corrective, but I'd love to see an alternative count.
No way to tell if it's an accumulation or distribution until it breaks one way or the other. Could be a bear consolidation just as easily. Stochs can remain oversold for long periods during bear markets.
10.
Post 36823849 (copy this link) (by exstasie) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.55h):
I have trouble believing 9% of the US population owns crypto.
That’s 30 million people. Coinbase has 11 million active users including a large proportion of foreign users. So maybe 9 million US users which is 2.7% of the population and instinctively feels more realistic.
This might be your culprit:
internet-connected respondents
A lot of rural and older people don't really use the internet. Same with children, and I doubt the indigent are responding to surveys like these. How they define "internet-connected respondents" must inflate the numbers; it sounds like a more tech-savvy crowd than average. I saw a recent survey that said 5% of the U.S. population owns some cryptocurrency. Even that sounds like too much.
11.
Post 45911759 (copy this link) (by exstasie) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.07h):
Now
that is what I call a bear trap. Bottom shorters just got massacred!
12.
Post 46742363 (copy this link) (by exstasie) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.09h):
On one hand, I'm glad the bears moved first because I've been expecting a headfake. On the other hand, this shit just dumped below the 1-day lower BB. Not a good sign to see range expansion downwards. Let's see how the day closes.
Anyone seeing this Bitfinex premium over Coinbase, Stamp, etc? It's standing at $160 at the moment. What's up with that?
13.
Post 46742433 (copy this link) (by exstasie) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.09h):
Any clue what this was? A gnarly dump to pick up cheap stocks from an Asian investor possibly?
Probably not. It's just some supply coming in. It's possible the bears are winning the battle and this big triangle breaks down.........
14.
Post 48484637 (copy this link) (by exstasie) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.18h):
If we see under $3k, its likely to headed for $1300 says Tone Vays. Also bearish as fuck.
I was just listening to him and no disrespect but anyone can get ahead of themselves. He called it himself, RSI as massively oversold. A bear market can have sharp spikes upwards, I wish it was so easy that it just moved in one direction because thats free money right with no worry.
"Oversold" just means the trend is strong. Look at RSI against the bull trend last year. "Overbought" didn't mean anything. Price just kept pushing. The same can happen here.
On the flip side, I'm noticing a lot of $1,000 and $1,500 calls. People are forecasting carnage worse than 2011. Bears are getting bold. This happens near long term bottoms.
15.
Post 48497489 (copy this link) (by exstasie) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.18h):
As usual, the buy support on drops mostly exists ONLY on the fraudulent exchange Bitfinex. Nothing fishy to see here!
Bitfinex is certainly dodgy. They've admitted as much with their talk about needing to bank like criminals. What have they really done that's fraudulent though?
LN is nothing new. We know it from old banking / settlement / clearing / netting process.
the only new and proven thing is pure on chain.
Why kicking that ?
-> Some devs want to be better than Satoshi and some miners / exchanges want a lot of different coins.
There is incentive to operate LN nodes though, so it's not just permissioned by banks. Does it look like hub and spoke now? What's wrong with settlement to the blockchain if/when you need?
16.
Post 49540032 (copy this link) (by exstasie) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.29h):
QuadrigaCX just Gox'd their customers. The owner died and no one can access the cold storage:
https://www.coindesk.com/quadriga-creditor-protection-filingTroubled Canadian crypto exchange QuadrigaCX owes its customers $190 million and cannot access most of the funds, according to a court filing obtained by CoinDesk.
The exchange holds roughly 26,500 bitcoin ($92.3 million USD), 11,000 bitcoin cash ($1.3 million), 11,000 bitcoin cash SV ($707,000), 35,000 bitcoin gold ($352,000), nearly 200,000 litecoin ($6.5 million) and about 430,000 ether ($46 million), totaling $147 million, according to the affidavit.
It was not clear what portion of the exchange’s crypto holding were kept in cold storage, versus its hot wallet. In the affidavit, Robertson explained that “only a minimal amount of coins” were stored in the hot wallet, but specifics were not provided.
17.
Post 51641736 (copy this link) (by exstasie) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.53h):
Sentiment check. Moon or doom?
Was $13,800 the top? Was $10,300 the bottom?
18.
Post 51967585 (copy this link) (by exstasie) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.57h):
6% dump in a single 15-minute candle! Well done, bears.
19.
Post 53597961 (copy this link) (by exstasie) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.12h):
I already said I am not expecting (hoping, yes) any more 5x-10x in a single year anymore. In fact I would prefer if we reach the stage in which Bitcoin stops crazily overshooting and overdumping afterwards for a more "sane and healthy" price growth instead.
That'll only happen once BTC's speculative nature has generally been priced in. In other words, in the "late adopter" phase. After mainstream adoption, after dinosaur institutions are balls deep into crypto, etc.
Price and adoption are directly linked, so as long as most people/institutions haven't adopted it yet, it will continue being extremely speculative.
Exponential adoption necessitates exponential gains. The next bubble will melt your face off.
20.
Post 53607483 (copy this link) (by exstasie) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.12h):
respectable daily...I'll take 3 more of those please
Fat volume too. I like what I see.
Bitfinex shorts up 73% in 24 hours.
Dip buying season,
engage. Latest analysis here:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5196072.msg53605841#msg53605841
21.
Post 53615346 (copy this link) (by exstasie) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.12h):
I think if we break $9,000 it could be a quick run up to five figures.
Yeah the first time we crossed 9K this year that was a short lived area, 10K was like instant asked and delivered
Might be short-lived this time around too. The 200-day MA is hovering around $9,100. That's our next big resistance. Then we'll contend with the $10K area, which I expect bears to sell into hard. They'll want to keep the weekly progression of lower highs intact.
22.
Post 53633978 (copy this link) (by exstasie) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.12h):
23.
Post 53670686 (copy this link) (by exstasie) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.13h):
Imagine being someone who still thinks the bottom isn't in.
The market is still half bears? Plenty of fuel left for the rocket, I see.
To be fair, the question extended beyond BTC to crypto.
And the bottom is most definitely not in for shitcoins.
A month or so ago, I was planning on another lower low on BTC pairs but honestly, I'm not sure anymore. A lot of coins are showing W-bottoms, big upside range expansions, or at least look like they might be bottoming out. I think the downside is actually pretty limited.
24.
Post 53697580 (copy this link) (by exstasie) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.13h):
Morning, all. Latest analysis:
Updated primary count:
I don't like the internal (lower degree) count, but I think the overall wave proportions really support this idea. The deep pullback in Wave 2 and the > 1.618 extension in Wave 3 definitely looks like impulsive behavior to me. This is the general idea:
The 20-day MA doesn't seem to be providing support. I consider bears to be in control until the market breaks back above ~$8,670, the top of that failure candle two days ago. Looking at daily Chande levels and considering the overall structure, I would expect a few more days of consolidation in this general area.
We prefer to hold $8,000+ and ideally at/above the 0.382 to maintain good impulsive channel form. A sustained drop back into that yellow channel will suggest we are actually in a larger correction, in which case I offer
xxxx123abcxxxx's alternative:
Are we mostly bulls or bears in here?
25.
Post 53726939 (copy this link) (by exstasie) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.13h):
Pump it
26.
Post 53733806 (copy this link) (by exstasie) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.13h):
27.
Post 53744371 (copy this link) (by exstasie) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.14h):
This one is for you bears who are still hoping to buy back in.
The Fear & Greed index is finally registering "greed" for the first time in a long time. Bitfinex longs are also up almost 18% over the last week. As a contrarian, this supports my feeling that we're nearing a local top.
I also wait a pullback in the 10k area. The question is how big do you think will be. I think it could be just a small one and going fast to 10500-10600 or a moderate one to 9k-9,2k or 8,8k at much. There are a fucking lot of buying orders at 9,2 and 9, and in case going lower which I doubt, 8,8k is very strong again.
An strong pullback to like 8k or so seems very unlikely to me.
$8K would just be a 50% pullback from here. Very normal in the early stages of a bull market. Look at the corrections in June-August 2016, January 2017, March 2017. These were deep 62%+ retracements of the previous wave. And that was in the throws of a bull market, so it wouldn't be out of the ordinary.
I think the low $8,000s where the 20-week MA is may end up being a great target zone. This is one scenario I'm preparing for:
A 50-62% retracement would be typical, although it doesn't
need to go that deep.
28.
Post 53931772 (copy this link) (by exstasie) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.17h):
BTCUSD looks like it's about to spring upwards hard.....
