Soon the bots will come online and arb all the exchanges to the futures price. It may be a wild couple days but things will certainly settle soon.
18.3K is looking good though, thanks China!
Right now the Jan futures have 1.6K of volume. Why would the price be arbed there? Weve never arbed to GBTC either.
Gbtc is not a contract that you can deliver on. Buy 5btc from an exchange at 16K and sell a cboe contract at 18K. You made 10K. If price falls, buy cheaper btc and deliver those to the contract. If price rises above 18K, well - your gain is fixed at 10K but people do a lot more work for less money.
This will push all exchange prices to track the futures price. If there is a discrepancy in the cost of the real market vs the futures market, bots will arb it out.
This thing is totally unhinged from the underlying asset. Is that how Wall St. do?
Seems like... Maybe it'll level out in time?
I would like to see a futures market that enforced delivery. that would actually have some use for miners and others that are trying to hedge risk.
This seems like a pure derivative market adding risk instead of mitigating it...
I suppose time will tell.
They are not used to "delivery". Who in their right senses would want a fucking BUNCH of soya being delivered to them? What about logistics?
Even gold is cumbersome enough.
They are not used to an asset as easily deliverable as Bitcoin is.
And yes, futures are derivatives, no?
A manufacturer of soya products would want delivery in 6mo at today's price because it removes price variance risk from their accounting.
That's what futures are for, actual manufacturers. Speculation is just added fun.