All posts made by figmentofmyass in Bitcointalk.org's Wall Observer thread
1.
Post 8316804 (copy this link) (by figmentofmyass) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.04h):
are we going full bear soon? where is the BOUNCE?
2.
Post 10111000 (copy this link) (by figmentofmyass) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.46h):
what's with bitcoinwisdom removing bitstamp from the top exchanges? little hasty, no?
3.
Post 11611731 (copy this link) (by figmentofmyass) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.17h):
i get the distinct feeling that this will dump soon...
4.
Post 11614052 (copy this link) (by figmentofmyass) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.17h):
seems the big action is on LTC right now....
too bad my money is in bitcoin (or borecoin, whichever it is)
5.
Post 11637600 (copy this link) (by figmentofmyass) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.17h):
seems the big action is on LTC right now....
too bad my money is in bitcoin (or borecoin, whichever it is)
yep... this one paid off!
i covered half my longs and gonna let the rest ride, with sights on $4 or higher. LTC, let's go to the moon, and maybe BTC can even tag along.
6.
Post 11647902 (copy this link) (by figmentofmyass) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.18h):
2.5k dump on okcoin followed by 3.5k bid support to take its place minutes later.. very suspicious?
Yeah, and all of a sudden, the order book is fully exposed -- as never before -- so we can see that the bids are entirely filled in back to 1500. Very suspicious. All these wicks on Okcoin tell me liquidity is leaving. And with all the strange rumors about Okcoin and their "market making", I have to wonder if those bids were filled in by the exchange itself....
hmm, that does sound pretty suspicious. could you elaborate on these "market making" rumors? i hadn't heard anything.
7.
Post 11663624 (copy this link) (by figmentofmyass) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.18h):
I gotta say... this BTC chart just doesn't read as cleanly as it used to. I miss those strong trends. My guess is we are in a consolidation and will continue to range for a couple more days. Not sure which way we'll break, but my bias is still to the upside. But it'll probably just double top. Bulls really don't look that strong.
i'm still hodlin, but i have this nasty feeling that it's gonna sink like a stone.
8.
Post 11670749 (copy this link) (by figmentofmyass) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.18h):
seems the poll is heavily leaning bullish..... makes me think the opposite will happen.
9.
Post 33883405 (copy this link) (by figmentofmyass) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.51h):
What would be of crypto without all its nonsense drama?
They probably don't realize it or care, but it's people like Roger, CSW, and Mcafee that are hindering mass adoption. They are putting the face of crazy on Bitcoin and crypto. Average Joes don't want to be associated with such nonsense.
three people are not "hindering mass adoption."
if they could, bitcoin is totally fucked and has no chance of mass adoption. let's be real. average joes don't know or care who roger or CSW are. mcafee was a beloved wingnut long before he got involved with crypto.
nothing is hindering adoption besides market cycles---hype took a dive, get-rich-quick top buyers need to be punished---and time. bitcoin is a brand new type of asset, still in beta, with pretty terrible UX for non-tech savvy people. expecting mass adoption in that context is just plain silly. rome wasn't built in a day....
10.
Post 34116463 (copy this link) (by figmentofmyass) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.51h):
I don't think I've seen BTC prices "flatline" within such a narrow range, for as many hours as it has, in quite a while.
Very very unnatural.
it's painful to watch. i'm nervously bullish but i've been waiting for the bottom to fall out for quite a while. bears had momentum and time, but price is so tight now and volume never came in.
a little FUD bomb:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=3272133.0
11.
Post 34128407 (copy this link) (by figmentofmyass) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.51h):
muahahaha, i love when it pumps on FUD. cha-ching.
it's some tasty FUD tho. western media hasn't picked it up,
but the polish media is running with it:
One of the largest and most controversial cryptocurrency exchanges Bitfinex received a big blow today in Poland - PLN 1.3 billion at the Cooperative Bank in Skierniewice was seized by the prosecutor's office. The money is to be linked through the Bitfineks network of companies and the Colombian drug trade.
Online investigations linking companies with accounts at the Cooperative Bank in Skierniewice with Bitfineks appeared already last year. Bitfinex is controversial - this stock market has long been suspected of speculating cryptocurrency prices and pumping bubbles. US regulators are also researching the Tether currency created by Bitfinex, which is related to the value of the one-to-one dollar and is used to buy other crypts.
On April 6, 2018, Zbigniew Ziobro was successful in taking $ 270 million. associated with fraud, people whose names appeared in Panama Papers and companies that are pillars of the "large foreign cryptocurrency market". The accounts were to be located in a small Polish bank.
Our unofficial information shows that it is about Bitfinex. The Polish prosecutor's office has not raised any charges yet, and due to the international dimension of the case, the Central Investigation Office cooperates with Europol and Interpol.
then there's this...
12.
Post 35429377 (copy this link) (by figmentofmyass) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.53h):
Zeroconf is not built atop 'trust Wu, Ver and Wright'. It is built atop 'we don't have overwhelming tx backlog that makes doublespends hard to detect'.
without a backlog, it's still batshit crazy to accept 0-conf. people have double spent against both bitpay and coinbase; peter todd did it publicly once. if you close out the invoice before confirmation, there's nothing stopping the consumer from pushing a higher-fee transaction using the same inputs.
the "tx backlog" really seems like a red herring. 0-conf has an inherently weaker trust model. satoshi acknowledged this:
As you figured out, the root problem is we shouldn't be counting or spending transactions until they have at least 1 confirmation. 0/unconfirmed transactions are very much second class citizens. At most, they are advice that something has been received, but counting them as balance or spending them is premature.
accepting 0-conf transactions doesn't mean trusting "Wu, Ver and Wright".....it means trusting the payor not to steal back his money from you.
13.
Post 47203459 (copy this link) (by figmentofmyass) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.10h):
that's too bad. i've been waiting for that guy to turn bearish for a while. permabulls gonna permabull, i guess.
at least novogratz brought his forecast back down to reality. when all the bulls finally become bears (or at least stop calling for new ATH) then we can finally go up.
14.
Post 47204959 (copy this link) (by figmentofmyass) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.10h):
that's too bad. i've been waiting for that guy to turn bearish for a while. permabulls gonna permabull, i guess.
at least novogratz brought his forecast back down to reality. when all the bulls finally become bears (or at least stop calling for new ATH) then we can finally go up.
It is NOT a condition precedent for BTC prices to return to UP that "all the bulls finally become bears."
Get a grip, figass!!!
not required, fine.
but i'll tell ya, i'd feel a lot better if everyone were bearish. that would at least imply a lot of sellers/shorters in our midst, waiting to be squeezed.
instead i keep hearing about how "bakkt is gonna cause the next bull run".......
15.
Post 48065026 (copy this link) (by figmentofmyass) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.14h):
Are we literally going to $0
sure seems like it.
on the bright side, we're going "too far too fast". this usually creates a strong snap back effect because sellers get exhausted all at once. i wonder if we could really see capitulation so soon though.
16.
Post 48359219 (copy this link) (by figmentofmyass) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.17h):
Here is my attempt at btc bottoming fundamental analysis:
Bitcoin mining difficulty peaked on 9/30/2018, then went flat, now rapidly declining.
The last time this happened on a sustained basis was during Nov 2011 bottom.
In 2011 it took four months before market bottomed and decline in difficulty stopped (in correlation with the price rebound).
Counting from 9/30, we are already two months into difficulty decline period.
If total decline period is to last only four months, we would need to turn around (price-wise) within a month (or already) to get to the rise again by the end of four months period.
One may argue that it could last longer, but nobody knows what the result of such decline would be on system functioning. Yes, difficulty would slowly adjust downwards and relieve the pressure on miners, but it takes two weeks for adjustment, which might be too slow for some.
IF, on the other hand, you would continue both price and difficulty decline until mid 2019, bitcoin might be in jeopardy by the time it turns around there.
i don't think it makes sense to focus on miners. difficulty may lag a lot, but it should eventually follow price on a long enough timeline. mining costs remaining above price means miners bleeding money---they should eventually shut down. between the last adjustment and the upcoming one, we're looking at more than a 21% difficulty drop, so we're seeing that dynamic in action.
the important thing is when price turns around. that's anyone's guess, but i tend to agree with those who (based on history) believe we're at the tail end of the post-bubble bear market. the closest model so far is 2014. that cycle topped in november 2013 and bottomed in january 2015.
17.
Post 48455675 (copy this link) (by figmentofmyass) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.18h):
in conventional terms that sounds great. but in the crypto market---10 years, really?
in any other market with bitcoin's technicals, that would be a reasonable assumption. the difference with bitcoin is most of the supply is already mined and distributed. in 10 years, we'll be another three halvings in, so the block subsidy will have much less effect on available supply. people on the spot/OTC markets will be fighting over
a lot fewer coins. i think even the most bullish perma-bulls might be surprised at how high this goes, and how fast it does it.
18.
Post 48508591 (copy this link) (by figmentofmyass) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.19h):
why ETH falls stronger than bitcoin? Competitor's problems should be beneficial, not the other way around
altcoins are correlated to bitcoin, no exceptions. in a bear market, they always fall harder than bitcoin. this makes sense: in a market contraction, higher risk and more speculative assets suffer the most.
bitcoin and altcoins aren't competitors. their relationship is symbiotic, really.
19.
Post 49618162 (copy this link) (by figmentofmyass) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.30h):
micgoossens, you flipping burgers at mickey d's now?
bear markets sure are rough.....
20.
Post 50741946 (copy this link) (by figmentofmyass) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_16.43h):
Despite previous info, maybe they are not out of danger just yet.
The press might just be lagging behind, as it often happens.
and just why exactly is the Thai government tracking down two non violent people? They obviously aren't going to build another seastead there.
maybe they think they are spies or something. a threat to national sovereignty thailand says? insane.....
I hope the US threatens sanctions against those fuck heads for even threatening a US citizen with death over something so silly.
interesting thought. hoping for the best.
21.
Post 53701192 (copy this link) (by figmentofmyass) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.13h):
any poker players around here? we've got a private bitcointalk game going on sportsbet.io tomorrow at 2pm GMT. 1.1 mBTC buy-in, 9 people registered so far. i'm hoping we can get a 2nd table going. join us!!
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5217547.msg53673920#msg53673920PM me, efialtis, or any of the other confirmed players in that thread for the password. cheers!
22.
Post 53861740 (copy this link) (by figmentofmyass) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.15h):
hey guys, we're playing poker again this sunday, this time on SwC. 2.5 - 5 mBTC added, depending how many people show up.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5217547.msg53859036#msg53859036anyone who is interested in playing, shoot me a PM me for the password.
23.
Post 54029573 (copy this link) (by figmentofmyass) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.19h):
just wanna drop an invite to our poker game tomorrow. i figure everyone is stuck inside anyway. come play poker with us.
Stores are being stripped here good today.. They are madhouses..
My freezers and cupboards are packed..
ah, so you're one of the people hoarding up all the toilet paper. people in my facebook feed are showing pictures of empty shelves at supermarkets.
24.
Post 54029597 (copy this link) (by figmentofmyass) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.19h):
I went for a shit in the supermarket and someone had even stolen all the toilet paper from the toilet. Bastards.
i hope you made it out okay.
i know a guy who works construction, he said someone raided all the tp from the portable toilets! unbelievable.....
25.
Post 54056619 (copy this link) (by figmentofmyass) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.20h):
we're playing poker again this sunday @
SwC Poker! if you're stuck at home because of the coronavirus, come play some cards with us!
date: sunday 3/22/2020
time: 4pm GMT/UTC
buy-in: 0.001 BTC (1000 chips)
game: NLHE
name in tournament lobby: "Bitcointalk Private Tournament"
late registration: 1.5 hours
blind levels: 12 minutesthere is one second chance rebuy allowed if you get knocked out.
the tournament requires a password. if you would like to receive it, please PM me or post in this thread.yahoo62278 and i are running a 0.001 BTC last longer side bet. if you wanna join us in the action, post in the thread and transfer 1000 chips to FOMA777 on SwC Poker.
26.
Post 54115913 (copy this link) (by figmentofmyass) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.21h):
everybody stuck inside the house? good, come play some poker with us today.
3/29: Bitcointalk Private Poker Tournament #5 @ Sportsbet.io - 40 mBTC GTD Prizeit starts in 9 hours. we need another 5 players to reach the minimum. 0.001 BTC buy-in, re-entry available, 0.04 BTC gtd.
the password is kJCPYN4cG.