All posts made by FattyMcButterpants in Bitcointalk.org's Wall Observer thread
1.
Post 3469071 (copy this link) (by FattyMcButterpants) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.19h):
We are going down to $150 soon. The end is nigh
Imagine hearing that a year ago. We would be so thrilled :-).

At $10 that would have sounded like this sounds now:
We are going down to $3000 soon. The end is nigh
the end is near, last chance to buy some xrp.
how big is the bag you're holding? how low are you willing to sell?

2.
Post 3682824 (copy this link) (by FattyMcButterpants) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.28h):
BOOM

3.
Post 6878782 (copy this link) (by FattyMcButterpants) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.46h):
Just noting for those that don't think China matters, volume during this runup on Huobi (one of 2 big Chinese exchanges) has been 4x that of Bitstamp (Westerner's largest exchange).
Both Huobi and OKCoin represent 60% of the global Bitcoin exchange market. Bitstamp is 7%.
i'd love for bitstamp to get give us some margin. then maybe it could compete with the best of em

i do think Chinese exchange volumes are pumped by margin, western traders and potentially faking of volume by exchanges (a la OKcoin)
4.
Post 6878851 (copy this link) (by FattyMcButterpants) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.46h):
Interesting that this time alts are not following BTC, they're even going lower. Are we going to see decoupling again like before December?
Look at Darkcoin. +30% last 24h, yeah that's sustainable.

I too have noticed that alts like LTC and DOGE are not following BTC, they are flat or even seeing new lows (DOGE).
I suspect Darkcoin and perhaps a few other alts have something to do with it. Darkcoin has anonymous transactions. Now, ignore Darkcoin and that for a second, my point is really that LTC and DOGE has basically nothing that BTC does not have (LTC has slightly faster transactions, DOGE has MARKETING) and that leaves the door open for any new altcoin that does something which is fundamentally different (more anonymous transactions, for example).
Regardless, it seems BTC has come out #1 and left the challengers in the dust this round.
Darkcoin saved my alt portfolio, but i think other ults will start pumping, when the new crypto proponents enter, this space, (they all dislike bitcoin for some reason and justify using alts, just wait until the feedback loop starts)
At the start of the bitcoin run up from $120 to $1,000 i picked up a fiew LTC at $3 it then outperformed bitcoin i believe for the reason above. I never thought it could take off, but it did. The same thing will happen to a few select alts, not sure how LTC will go though, but it will be something to monitor.
Darkcoin is a great concept, but I wish they would start over. Reason being, originally there were supposed to be 84 million, and there was a bug that instamined 10%, and then they lowered it to 21 million after those coins were out. So about 8400000 coins from the instamine if I calculated correctly.
really? i had no idea. any idea how those coins were distributed? was it just a handful of insiders who developed the coin like an actual premine? or was there just a general mining frenzy?
5.
Post 6879030 (copy this link) (by FattyMcButterpants) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.46h):
anyone think there's anything to these Indian exchanges opening up? you think demand will develop there like we saw in China last year?
6.
Post 6880258 (copy this link) (by FattyMcButterpants) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.46h):
Interesting that this time alts are not following BTC, they're even going lower. Are we going to see decoupling again like before December?
I for one think investing in alts at this point risky. There is a good chance we are in a bull run that will turn out to be a part of a bearish continuation. As alts lag, an investment in alts could turn south quickly. All the alts are still at historically high levels vs. where the were prior to the last bubble including LTC.
i would agree with this. i also think if and when we see a new bull cycle (if it has not already begun) then we might see alts plummet against BTC as they did last Novemeber
7.
Post 6903653 (copy this link) (by FattyMcButterpants) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.46h):
i'm not worried about stamp in particular. i think they are very misguided about AML/KYC procedures - they have no idea what they are doing or how they are supposed to comply and are just trying to throw a net over everything. but that is a big turnoff to customers, especially btc proponents. plus, they have an absolutely pathetic trading engine with massive lag that actually misses orders sometimes. and they just haven't been around long enough for me to put any trust in them. in fact, businesses in the BTC economy have such a black cloud over them, none of them should be trusted at all until a couple more years down the road. so if they ask for my passport and the rest of the anal cavity search? bye, bitstamp.
8.
Post 6903952 (copy this link) (by FattyMcButterpants) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.46h):
Why is bitcoin going backwards?? is just preparing for the big jump or it will be again at 450?

just preparing.
big jump.
450, never again.
only 70 points above that level and we're at never again? hehe. i wanna be bull but everyone seems so sure that next bubble is right around the corner. perhaps like sheep being led to the slaughter....
9.
Post 6903963 (copy this link) (by FattyMcButterpants) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.46h):

Building Quality Markets for Digital Currencies
A secure, state-of-the-art exchange platform built by Wall Street veterans for transacting digital currencies
Powered by a platform deployed by some of Wall Street's largest proprietary trading firms and institutions
The exchange central book matches orders based on price/time priority. No fees to transfer money in and out.
two-factor authentication, cold storage of crypto-currency, multi-tiered multi-firewall architecture
Forget about centralized exchanges, problems with legislation or trust are always going to come up. Nxt has a decentralized Asset Exchange running, and this is surely the future.
how does a decentralized exchange work for transactions involving fiat? surely there must be a central party that holds the fiat. it seems that fiat transactions demand a level of trust.
10.
Post 6904005 (copy this link) (by FattyMcButterpants) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.46h):
Why is bitcoin going backwards?? is just preparing for the big jump or it will be again at 450?

just preparing.
big jump.
450, never again.
only 70 points above that level and we're at never again? hehe. i wanna be bull but everyone seems so sure that next bubble is right around the corner. perhaps like sheep being led to the slaughter....
fine buy later when its perfectly clear that bitcoin is about to bubble
i'm just saying that we could get a 61.8% or 78.6% retrace of the uptrend to 445-470 area. and if that happened we could still be in a bull trend. (if it stops there....)
planning on an uptrend never having a correction has never worked out in my book

11.
Post 6904151 (copy this link) (by FattyMcButterpants) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.46h):
Why is bitcoin going backwards?? is just preparing for the big jump or it will be again at 450?

just preparing.
big jump.
450, never again.
only 70 points above that level and we're at never again? hehe. i wanna be bull but everyone seems so sure that next bubble is right around the corner. perhaps like sheep being led to the slaughter....
fine buy later when its perfectly clear that bitcoin is about to bubble
i'm just saying that we could get a 61.8% or 78.6% retrace of the uptrend to 445-470 area. and
if that happened we could still be in a bull trend. (if it stops there....)
planning on an uptrend never having a correction has never worked out in my book

still its not gana happen.
poeple waiting for a "fib retrace" really need to wake the fuck up, thats not going to happen till at least 600's
400's are gone.
all sold out.
finished.
welcome to the very start of the never ending bull run.
what makes you so sure? why would it happen in the 600s? show me a chart or something.

you just sounds like you want it to happen, but you got no reasons....
12.
Post 6904348 (copy this link) (by FattyMcButterpants) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.46h):
i'm not saying it will happen in the 600's i'm saying its simply can't happen before then
support is too damn strong
and bears can't possibly be that retarded.
also look at this guy.

doesn't he look like he'll be buying in with 3 million at 18K/coin?
see what i'm saying though -- i could just say "resistance is too damn strong" and "bulls can't possibly be that retarded" and my argument would be just as strong as yours.... minus google glasses man
13.
Post 6925627 (copy this link) (by FattyMcButterpants) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.46h):
wowee. this is looking very very bullish. it's too bad i missed some upside sitting on the sidelines, but at least i have more coins than when i sold back in january. let's go to the moon, gentlemen.

14.
Post 7235945 (copy this link) (by FattyMcButterpants) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.51h):
what is with bearstamp? never seen such a big spread between stamp and bfx except in the middle of a massive pump.
15.
Post 7388593 (copy this link) (by FattyMcButterpants) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.53h):
[trolling] Participating in the auction is morally dubious. Are you a fence? If not, after buying these coins you should return them to their rightful owners. [/trolling]
something tells me that the people who are trying to bid on the SR coins, do not share many of the principles of many [ancap/right libertarian] bitcoiners....
16.
Post 7403285 (copy this link) (by FattyMcButterpants) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.54h):
Got my Coinbase coins. Arbitraging Bitfinex for $20/BTC worked. Funny how that BFX premium (over Bitstamp) didn't last long. It's pretty much at zero now.
for now. i suspect that if/when China takes off again, Bitfinex will keep in step with Huobi/Okcoin, while Stamp may fall behind. just a hunch.

17.
Post 7403375 (copy this link) (by FattyMcButterpants) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.54h):
i think it's pretty unrealistic to assume that these coins will be sold at a premium. however, any assumption that the coins will make their way to these horribly illiquid exchanges to chase arbitrage, is also misguided. there's a lot of variables at play.
18.
Post 7742019 (copy this link) (by FattyMcButterpants) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.58h):
I suggest Brazilians watching this game use more Xanax, alcohol, whatever it takes.

The alternative would be a rise in suicides, which I strongly disapprove of.
yes, this is a massacre. gonna be some unhappy people, perhaps some rioting. seems like rugby scores incoming at this point...
19.
Post 8243865 (copy this link) (by FattyMcButterpants) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.03h):
i'm not convinced that we've broken the down trend yet, but i do think we still have one more leg up to make on this rally. maybe 605-610. but like everyone else, i'm just guessing.

20.
Post 8276493 (copy this link) (by FattyMcButterpants) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.03h):
Not gonna lie. Looked pretty clear that someone was just buying their own asks on Huobi. I'd love to see some up here, but with this kind of pump action and nobody following, it doesn't look all that good....
We will go down soon again. Just like the previous 30 times.
It's sad that this whale buying doesn't even excite me anymore. In a few hours from now you wouldn't even know it happened.
except that all the people who weren't watching at the time will see the big green volume bars and think, whales are buying! but i agree, bitcoin is a yawn these days.
21.
Post 8334845 (copy this link) (by FattyMcButterpants) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.04h):
How you guys liking that whipsaw action, weeehawww!

what, $10 up from the bottom? only a whipsaw if you panic sell at the bottom.

for me, i can now just wait and watch for a strong bull reversal. got a good cushion between here and my sells.
22.
Post 8335057 (copy this link) (by FattyMcButterpants) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.04h):
i can now just wait and watch for a strong bull reversal.
That's the sprit we need, dude! We need more buyers for this bull trap. C'mon dude, buy more! Give yourself a push, you surely have some fiat on the sidelines!
read over what i said. i am waiting in fiat and not bottom fishing. i'll let others catch the knives, i don't need to catch the bottom.
23.
Post 8361023 (copy this link) (by FattyMcButterpants) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.05h):
It's sad and annoying to see that this big drop wasn't enough for some people. They try to push us further down.
If it's up to these idiots they'd take us down to 10 dollars. They don't care if they destroy the whole Bitcoin economy in the process.
There is no reason to sell anymore at the moment. Those who wanted to sell did so already. The pressure is gone.
This is pure manipulation and idiot sheep following, afraid of another crash.
i'd like to think that, but i've been staring at charts for much longer than i'd like to admit, everyday, for months. and i saw the manipulators pushing down months ago. massive sells into massive support that repeatedly would not budge. until the bulls gave way. i don't see that now. what i see is 1) those whales are not stepping in and rebuying yet, and 2) there are no buyers at the current level. when the whales decide to step in, expect panic buying to ensue very quickly.
24.
Post 8408733 (copy this link) (by FattyMcButterpants) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.06h):
hmmm, so how about that 100% + retracement from that bounce yesterday? you guys can't possibly be feeling bullish after that!

25.
Post 8412145 (copy this link) (by FattyMcButterpants) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.06h):
quadruple, quintuple, etc etc bottom? or we gonna finally break through down below? my money is on going downtown. maybe not today, but it's gonna happen soon, me thinks. good luck out there, bulls.

26.
Post 8412153 (copy this link) (by FattyMcButterpants) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.06h):
And this time LTC/USD says "so?".
LTC is Rock Bottom, one needs glasses if you can't see its downtrend has nearly stopped! At $5 it's a steal imho...
this was sarcastic, i hope.

$4 broken today, and looking to break it again after it bounced. looks like BTC might take the piss as well. let's watch.

27.
Post 8414309 (copy this link) (by FattyMcButterpants) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.06h):
this is very ugly. there are like... no buyers to be found anywhere. the bulls went on vacation for the summer..... hopefully. i'm just setting low flash crash bids at this point..... if there's a strong breakout to the upside, i'll jump in. but boy does this look ugly.
28.
Post 8414458 (copy this link) (by FattyMcButterpants) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.06h):
this is very ugly. there are like... no buyers to be found anywhere. the bulls went on vacation for the summer..... hopefully. i'm just setting low flash crash bids at this point..... if there's a strong breakout to the upside, i'll jump in. but boy does this look ugly.
If you are doing Finex remember it is 10% from the trigger point. Normally, I'd say the trigger point is $451 which would bring you to about $406. However, with the margin maintenance adjusted and Finex being glitchy, it is tough to know exactly the trigger point. I picked a little above $415 and I may adjust it if we go within 10% of there without a flasher (flasher... sounds more fun than flash crash).
not just margin calls (and trying to estimate the trigger for a cascade is wild speculation imo), but flash crash generally. i'm looking more at $420 on other exchanges = hopefully sub-400 on bitfinex.

29.
Post 8420759 (copy this link) (by FattyMcButterpants) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.06h):
giggity giggity!!! anyone else get filled on BTCE? flash crash bids for the win! sitting on $3xx coins right now. what a beautiful morning!!!

30.
Post 8420784 (copy this link) (by FattyMcButterpants) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.06h):
I still don't get this dump..
Like why did we go from $590 last week to $309 without any big news?
the only news has been an overwhelming bear market. hell, not even sure this is the last margin call cascade we will see. that's what it looks like anyway. someone probably dumped 2k+ coins and triggered a bunch of stops and then triggered a bunch of margin calls....
31.
Post 8420826 (copy this link) (by FattyMcButterpants) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.06h):
for all the talk of "short squeezes" on this forum, clearly the real danger from watching BFX and BTCE is leveraging long. we have seen these wipeouts before... and we will see them again, IMO.
32.
Post 8421433 (copy this link) (by FattyMcButterpants) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.06h):
I still don't get this dump..
Like why did we go from $590 last week to $309 without any big news?
the only news has been an overwhelming bear market. hell, not even sure this is the last margin call cascade we will see. that's what it looks like anyway. someone probably dumped 2k+ coins and triggered a bunch of stops and then triggered a bunch of margin calls....
But if it where just Margin calls that went off, why don't we recover?
BTCE did recover -- from $309 it is now at $447, so only $18 below Stamp. that's a considerably recovery of the buy side considering how much was taken out by the cascade.
if you mean "we" like the market? hehe, take a look around. this is a bear market. maybe we turn it around soon, maybe we dont. but i'm only looking at lagging indicators now, with no interest in catching "bottom" (aside from $100+ margin call moves)... keeping bids very far from bid/ask spread and will buy a strong upside breakout.
33.
Post 8446027 (copy this link) (by FattyMcButterpants) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.07h):
monkey gave up on getting btc any cheaper.
monkey is all-in.
ouch. i'm seeing a topping formation here. will take the next few hours (at least) to confirm one way or the other. i think if 2900 goes, it could get ugly in a hurry.
34.
Post 8449134 (copy this link) (by FattyMcButterpants) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.07h):
Damn, squeezed out my long, which has been open for months.I was in @ around 430.
309@btc-e.
Out of position. cant get back in now.
ouch. why would you keep it open for so long? after the cascade on Bitfinex a few days back, i'd have thought it was time to close all leveraged longs given the spike to $100~ in february. sorry, that sucks.

35.
Post 8449351 (copy this link) (by FattyMcButterpants) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.07h):
Does anyone have an explanation on who keeps lending fresh BTC on bitfinex for those shorts?
An interest rate of 0.0055 %/day (2% annual) doesn't seem worth the risk to me.
after BTC swaps shot to 8k BTC, an hour ago there was only miniscule amount available. Now there's again ~ 1000 BTC available to borrow at flash rate of 0.0055 %/day. wtf. who in his right mind is doing this???
wild theory: maybe those are just finexBTC being lent?
dude, come on. 1000 BTC? that's nothing. a year ago we used to see 5k walls, 5k dumps regularly. 9k total swaps and 1000 "fresh" BTC is nothing. any early adopter could be doing this, no need to make any accusations of finexBTC....
36.
Post 8449656 (copy this link) (by FattyMcButterpants) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.07h):
Look at the LTC hogs going up like crazy in a down market. I swear, I think that there is leverage at play and they are going to get slaughtered on the next dip.
On the other hand, and I mention it here for this reason, it could be a sign that we are about to get a bounce on the markets. China's LTC market often times gets a jolt right before the BTC market moves.
Are you´re still trying to short something that already has been down ~90% from it´s last ATH.
truth haha. not that it can't go down further -- it probably will actually -- but the bounces can be soul crushing for shorts. the #1 PAMM account on BTCE (JS) was trading like $100k and got his account wiped out. the timing looks like he was shorting LTC at the bottom.....