All posts made by AceWallen in Bitcointalk.org's Wall Observer thread
1.
Post 3364361 (copy this link) (by AceWallen) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.17h):
Just a few hundred more BTC to break 167! lets gogogo!
2.
Post 3467713 (copy this link) (by AceWallen) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.19h):
This no-volume period makes me nervous.... Still all btc here!
3.
Post 3862526 (copy this link) (by AceWallen) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.33h):
you can always buy back with like 1/2 of the sell so your risk lowers, risk is more important factor than win, remember that gentlemen
indeed! im aiming to get my coins back, and then to have some fiat to play around with..... my exit was pretty good, so hoping to go a bit lower from here and im good.
4.
Post 6939637 (copy this link) (by AceWallen) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.47h):
so is it time for that correction soon? i need to get in. money still wont be at bitstamp until tuesday, so im hoping nothing too crazy happens before then. one step at a time, bitcoin....
5.
Post 6939665 (copy this link) (by AceWallen) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.47h):
so is it time for that correction soon? i need to get in. money still wont be at bitstamp until tuesday, so im hoping nothing too crazy happens before then. one step at a time, bitcoin....
If you would have stayed invested you wouldn't be in such a rush now.
when did i say that i sold anything? i was waiting for what looked like a reversal to send new money.... didnt think it would take off this quickly....
6.
Post 7009586 (copy this link) (by AceWallen) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.48h):
i must say, that first cup and handle seems far more speculative than the one you pointed out in november. that's not to say that i wouldn't LOVE to see a rocket to $1k right now.
7.
Post 7009960 (copy this link) (by AceWallen) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.48h):
This is a pretty interesting pattern. So you're speculating at this point that we still won't reach our previous ATH this year?
did you notice the last leg? the one that goes up and off the chart and past $1200? (this is a bitstamp chart) i think he's trying to say that we're going to the moon!
8.
Post 7010033 (copy this link) (by AceWallen) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.48h):
all i know is that i'm hodling like a badass and been doin it for months. i got my astronaut gear strapped on and it's actually getting sweaty as hell in here, it's quite hot, but the point is, I'M READY.
9.
Post 7207937 (copy this link) (by AceWallen) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.51h):
So depending on the chart the TA-traders are using, we should see some major action from 24hrs-72hrs from now?
This is a classic bull pennant, launched from the 570 range. The outcome is usually a breakout to the upside.
it isn't a bull pennant. a pennant is a shorter term pattern. this is a triangle. bitstamps still in its triangle, but it would have been a better signal if it broke out on the last wave. near the end, a "breakout" could actually just be more sideways.
10.
Post 7404014 (copy this link) (by AceWallen) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.54h):
we're still in a bullish consolidation, flag formation from the last leg up. if BFX breaks 600 to the downside, i will reconsider, but i think we should head up to 630-650 in the next couple days.
11.
Post 7471945 (copy this link) (by AceWallen) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.54h):
hmm looks like Huobi formed a double bottom with the last short term decline? is this it for the red candles? can we finally go back up!?!?
12.
Post 7472083 (copy this link) (by AceWallen) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.54h):
no i'm buying now.
Why buy now?
What happens if Bitcoin breaks below the longterm Jan 2013 support trendline on strong volume?
Also, you always seem to be buying. Never selling. Where do you get the fiat from?
buying now because, good price.
since virtex lowered their fees i've been trading more, been doing good, not crazy amounts few 100-1K$ bets is all.
How much fees reduced by virtex, did not login there since long time.
starts at 0.75% pre trade now.
wow, that's still quite high. BTC-E is 0.2% i believe, and Bitfinex i think is still 0.15%. why do you trade at Virtex, if i might ask?
13.
Post 7473600 (copy this link) (by AceWallen) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.54h):
finally, some life in DVC! it was stuck for so long under 15 satoshis.... wonder if we see a pump to > 100 satoshis now. i've been bagholding a while.
14.
Post 7744536 (copy this link) (by AceWallen) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.58h):
http://www.coindesk.com/polish-finance-ministry-says-bitcoin-can-used-financial-instrument/"Polish Finance Ministry Says Bitcoin Can Be Used as Financial Instrument" --> i dunno about you guys, but i think that's bullish sounding....
15.
Post 7998645 (copy this link) (by AceWallen) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.00h):
did i read that right? fonzie went bear again? too bad for him. i can already hear the choo choo in the distance.
16.
Post 8316479 (copy this link) (by AceWallen) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.04h):
always good to see more merchants on board, especially in e-commerce. unfortunately, they are peanuts compared to Dell, and smaller yet than some of the giants we hope to attract someday.
17.
Post 8496873 (copy this link) (by AceWallen) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.08h):
for a dump it did not drag many sellers with it..
there's a term that you see around here from time to time......
long slow slide ....... just like the action of 680 level, we are on a long slow slide down, and we just popped through key support. should probably pause or bounce but the trend is becoming clear.....
18.
Post 8496907 (copy this link) (by AceWallen) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.08h):
I see a reversal pattern forming. But the trolls can yell louder than me so I'll keep the TA to myself.
a bullish reversal pattern? is it the inverse head and shoulders that everyone and their mother is posting in the TV chat? dunno, it's certainly possible. whales love to paint the TA....
19.
Post 8496999 (copy this link) (by AceWallen) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.08h):
I see a reversal pattern forming. But the trolls can yell louder than me so I'll keep the TA to myself.
a bullish reversal pattern? is it the inverse head and shoulders that everyone and their mother is posting in the TV chat? dunno, it's certainly possible. whales love to paint the TA....
When a whale dumps 1500 coins to break 500 support, it is a valid support break?
But when a whale paints a TA pattern it is invalid?
Seems inconsistent.
they are both valid. what would lead you to believe any differently? whales can try to swing their weight one way or the other, but it's up to the market to follow.
20.
Post 8497136 (copy this link) (by AceWallen) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.08h):
This market can really make a man sick...
I honestly was expecting some good upside right about now
Final bear trap. Low volume. Sellers being shaken out one final time.
i'm a bit torn. on one hand, i expected a break of 500 to unleash a waterfall. it didn't. on the other hand, i remember that the post-680 level price action was similar -- slow slide, no panic. selling, but no panic, so everyone remained bullish. until we fell enough that the bulls ran for the exit....
21.
Post 8502737 (copy this link) (by AceWallen) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.08h):
Looks like we could be in for a sideways weekend here...
Time for a day of rest
yeah, looks to be that way. i'd say we just broke a key support level at 500 (both fib and psychological), and we'll slosh around here until the bears are ready to take it down another notch.
22.
Post 8503796 (copy this link) (by AceWallen) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.08h):
Is there any free programme that I can see signal like buy/sell. Which programme do you use guys? I am not using this kind of programme and I am bitcoin trader like 1 year, I won lot of money but just I want to know, any programmen do you use? Thank you.
i use Bitcoinwisdom for real-time candles (for when volatility strikes), otherwise i use TradingView for my charting. TradingView also has a chat where bitcoiners share their charts, it can be interesting to read.
23.
Post 8507647 (copy this link) (by AceWallen) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.08h):
It was up 90% from $3.30 though ??
If it touches 6 again it will retrace to 4.
Short much?
It was also down ~90% from itīs last ATH. It could easily go up to 20$ within 10 days.
true, and 4hr chart actually makes it look like it could just be getting started. OR this is just a huge fakeout. whatever you do, don't leverage with LTC. the volatility/no liquidity is insane. BTC is volatile enough for me for now.
24.
Post 8509558 (copy this link) (by AceWallen) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.08h):
Regarding TA:
It's simple:
Some people don't know how TA works or what it's supposed to do.
The same folks try to apply what they think TA is but they lose money.
Their conclusion: TA doesn't work.
The End.
regarding TA, i think many around here are asking themselves, "does TA work or not?" and the real answer is, "I am a bad trader." and that has absolutely nothing to do with TA.
25.
Post 9971387 (copy this link) (by AceWallen) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.41h):
Good luck.
I have absolutely no indication or premonition on how this is gonna go. If you have data that you feel comfortable acting on at this point, kudos and best wishes, but right now I'm feeling this is pretty much a coin flip.
Long term as well i am uncertain.
If it survives until at least 6 months after next reward having I expect at least 10k but I could not place a good probability on the chance that bitcoin will still exist at that point. So still an all or nothing bet to me at this point.
long term / weekly downtrend is intact. no point fighting it. breaking 300, 275 and beyond is almost a foregone conclusion at this point, in my mind. there may be better short entry than $320 to be had though.
26.
Post 10030585 (copy this link) (by AceWallen) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.43h):
Sitting at $275...... and looking like it's pretty ready to fall.......
I've put in limit orders to buy some around $250. Hoping to get some fills. If 250 breaks, also have limit orders down to $200.
that's reasonable. however, personally, i think if this level breaks, we will go on to test the $200ish level. looking to buy back in that area. maybe flash crash to $120-150 or something, but anything below $210 is great long term IMO.
27.
Post 10108431 (copy this link) (by AceWallen) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.46h):
What's the price got to drop down to before we should start panicking?
start panicking as in, you're looking to panic sell long after price already dropped off a cliff? sell the bottom perhaps? best to sell into strength when the market is bullish, not wait to sell the capitulation.
28.
Post 11547202 (copy this link) (by AceWallen) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.17h):
btc-e still down. o_0
this market is so flat, i've hardly opened the chart at all the past few weeks.... where's the volatility?
29.
Post 11556444 (copy this link) (by AceWallen) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.17h):
It can't stay like this forever but while it does we don't have much to talk about in this thread.
The flatness is actually what dragged me back. This tight range has "huge move" written all over it, when it finally breaks. Really big squeeze happening. Predicting direction is impossible, but bias is probably to the downside, given that last breakdown and, well, the last 1.5 years of price history.
Down forever, line on a chart etc
well a trend is more likely to continue than not, so let's go with that.
i have some bids for long term coins way lower than this. on with it!
30.
Post 11561402 (copy this link) (by AceWallen) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.17h):
the price action is a bit like past drops where we slowly crawled down before crashing. but this time, it's slower than ever. maybe it's different this time? (tm)
31.
Post 11561486 (copy this link) (by AceWallen) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.17h):
It's definitely going fork up a few peoples day!
Only weak shaken hands dear.
I heard about "weak hands" "noobs sell-off" "bear-trap for kids" etc. since 1000$ LOL
The only direction for btc is crash, soon or later.
i'm getting that feeling too, just not sure how long it'll take or if we get a bull trap first.
but you think this can go on forever? i don't think so.... maybe another year or something. bulls will be back!
32.
Post 11594306 (copy this link) (by AceWallen) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.17h):
the 4h chart is pretty bearish. big bear divergence everywhere. hoping that the dip is fairly weak and safe to buy, as i expect that 225-230 area will hold and we will trend up from there.
33.
Post 11619166 (copy this link) (by AceWallen) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.17h):
hmm, i've been waiting for a dip to buy but the damn thing won't come down. is all this consolidation at the top bullish or bearish? everything says overbought at the moment, so pretty hesitant to buy up here.
34.
Post 11619620 (copy this link) (by AceWallen) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.17h):
well, i'm still sitting on my hands. bear divergences everywhere, overbought all the way up to the daily. but i guess if bitfinex breaks 238-240 and we look to fomo, i'll hop on the train. until then, let's dip this thang.
35.
Post 11664588 (copy this link) (by AceWallen) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.18h):
what's gonna happen with this coinwallet.eu stress test? sounds like it could cause a panic.
36.
Post 11670057 (copy this link) (by AceWallen) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.18h):
hmm, this rally looks pretty strong off the $240 lows. anyone think we've bottomed here, onto test the $259 highs then?
37.
Post 11672291 (copy this link) (by AceWallen) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.18h):
What is Willey bot? Something Mt. Gox used to inflate the price?
People claim that the Willy Bot (an account backed by no real assets) was used to continually push the price up on MT Gox, and therefore, that it caused the bubble. I think that's crazy talk. The demand was clearly there, and the market was much bigger than Gox -- even at that time.
I haven't looked very closely at the latest reports, but my conclusions so far are
(1) one cannot understand what happened in MtGOX by analyzing only the data that is available from the database leak -- which, according to the Japanese Police, appears to have been doctored. One would need also, at a minimum, actual withdrawal and deposit records. The Japanese Police surely has those for fiat; it is not clear whether they have data for BTC too.
(2) my guess as to Willy is that it was doing (probably fraudulent) arbitrage: buying bitcoins from MtGOX clients to in order to sell them in China. The money that Willy used was probably inexistent -- essentially, unbacked credit provided by MtGOX. Perhaps the bitcoins had been sold in China or elsewhere earlier, and Willy's purpose only to cover up the embezzlement/theft by turning the missing bitcoins into missing fiat. Perhaps Willy's owner expected to get the money later somehow. Who knows.
(3) But, in any case, Willy does not seem to have been responsible for the Nov/2013 bubble. Comparison of prices across exchanges shows that the prices in China were higher than in the West (even higher than MtGOX) during the rally, and lower during the Dec/2013 crash; which suggests that the Chinese exchanges were pulling, and the Western ones were lagging behind.
excellent summation, and fully agreed. anyone who was around at that time should know that China was calling the shots during the November 2013 bubble.
38.
Post 11715298 (copy this link) (by AceWallen) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.18h):
What will happen when the wall is gone?
Many would expect new lows, I'm not sure I see that happening, there seems to be a lot of accumulation going on behind the scenes.
behind the scenes -- what do you mean? in the OTC market, so supply isn't making its way to exchanges? or do you mean that buyers have formed somewhat of a support block that bears cannot penetrate?
39.
Post 11921822 (copy this link) (by AceWallen) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.21h):
Wow, I just noticed the BTC-e dump. Wow, I'm really surprised that it didnt have a larger effect on the price (I have o idea how many Bitcoin were dumped). I really wish I could have gotten some BTC (or fraction of) for $150. Really, I'm optimistic. I hope we're not in for another week of boredom.
About 5000 coins I think.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1127306.msg11916788#msg11916788Wow, and BTC-e is already back up at $270. Someone might have tried to start a crash (can that been done with 5000 coins?), but we're soldering through!
i'm not sure if it was to start a crash; it may have been just to profit from margin calls on MT4. i don't think the market pays
that much attention to BTCE, although it did seem to react to the that crazy spike in April that preceded the rise past $300.
i'm a bit concerned at how few coins it took to get there, though. past cascades like this took a lot more. BTCE seems to be getting pretty illiquid, i guess.