All posts made by Argwai96 in Bitcointalk.org's Wall Observer thread
1.
Post 3264846 (copy this link) (by Argwai96) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.16h):
hmmm. i thought we were due for a nice healthy fall back to the 120s. i guess, we'll see!! i am not really trading in this market....
2.
Post 3288768 (copy this link) (by Argwai96) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.16h):
If we hit 110$ once, we can hit that low again. I hope Gox won't lag anymore, so I can trade without worrying about my order being 5 min late.
Its 20k
BTC away from $110 after touching it twice hours ago. Seems unlikely.
meh, that logic only works if gox leads. if bitstamp leads, with its depth.....
3.
Post 3288822 (copy this link) (by Argwai96) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.16h):
If we hit 110$ once, we can hit that low again. I hope Gox won't lag anymore, so I can trade without worrying about my order being 5 min late.
Its 20k
BTC away from $110 after touching it twice hours ago. Seems unlikely.
meh, that logic only works if gox leads. if bitstamp leads, with its depth.....
stamp dropping fast from 110, now 102........ it will lead the next drop;......
edit: btc-e at 98 and the fun begins!!!!
4.
Post 3288845 (copy this link) (by Argwai96) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.16h):
btc-e just hit 95...... wonder where we go from here.
5.
Post 3289409 (copy this link) (by Argwai96) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.16h):
If we hit 110$ once, we can hit that low again. I hope Gox won't lag anymore, so I can trade without worrying about my order being 5 min late.
thats odd. there was no lag for me (or anyone else?) today. i have executed 14 orders so far over the last 8 hrs
Really? Then I missed some nice action. Bitcoinity intermittently showed Gox as 4 - 5 minutes lag.
Bitcoincharts has been also malfunctioning, which drives me 'half blind'.
bitcoinity is a mess and is constantly wrong. i only keep it up because i don't use gox and i want to have an updating ticker on one tab.
6.
Post 3861065 (copy this link) (by Argwai96) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.33h):
The arm of death is forming at $747. Here we go fellas, hang on to your hats!
what is the arm of death?
7.
Post 4047443 (copy this link) (by Argwai96) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.43h):
what the hell is with BTCChina volume? totally totally dead while gox pushed up to 716 there
8.
Post 4050157 (copy this link) (by Argwai96) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.43h):
my plan was to finish selling when gox hit 750..... saw big resistance there before the last big drop.... couldn't break above twice, broke above once but fell right back. hope im right, all out now.
9.
Post 4050422 (copy this link) (by Argwai96) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.43h):
4h stoch rsi sitting at 100...... hmmmmm......
10.
Post 4050512 (copy this link) (by Argwai96) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.43h):
sell down to 715 and now 800 btc sell wall up
11.
Post 4050544 (copy this link) (by Argwai96) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.43h):
did i understood correctly that Loaded smuggled shitload of $ to china to buy cheap coins?
Yes, and no.
See, information on the Internet is a bit like quantum superposition: loaded both
did board an airplane with a suitcase full of sweet, sweet cash hidden somewhere in the fuse box with the help of the airplane mechanic of his private jet,
and he is actually a 32 year old male virgin living in the basement of his parents, living vicariously the life of an international Bitcoin jetsetter-slash-business magnate while furiously masturbating to MLP ero guro.
But that's just: The Internet -- What a Magic Place! ™
Oda, then how would you explain the fact that loaded came onto this threaded and posted "hello from china" moments before that huge 2,000 BTC wall at 2640 yaun was eaten? I saw that with my own eyes.
maybe he can swoop in and save us from this "bearish manipulator" now pushing price down on gox
12.
Post 4050616 (copy this link) (by Argwai96) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.43h):
Small sell off on really small volume. Suspicious.
suspicious, how?
13.
Post 4050692 (copy this link) (by Argwai96) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.43h):
Maybe Loaded just got back with his cheap coins and wants some bucks back.
He must play both ways, after all.
You can't blame him for needing a little cash back - it ain't all his own money....
i was under the impression that he
only buys.
14.
Post 4050709 (copy this link) (by Argwai96) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.43h):
now touching 700, 50 coins left.....
edit: welcome back, 600s......
15.
Post 4050904 (copy this link) (by Argwai96) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.43h):
i remember watching whales trying to prop the market above 100 after april post-crash bull trap..... what a show. they got burned bad.
16.
Post 4050922 (copy this link) (by Argwai96) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.43h):
i remember watching whales trying to prop the market above 100 after april post-crash bull trap..... what a show. they got burned bad.
Not if they hodled!
sure, but if they tried to prop up the market at half the price.... theyd be much better off.
17.
Post 4050935 (copy this link) (by Argwai96) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.43h):
ummmmm can you guys panic some more please, seen like 100 bitcoins move in 15 min
18.
Post 4050970 (copy this link) (by Argwai96) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.43h):
wall at 715 has doubled in the last 10 minutes.
19.
Post 4051013 (copy this link) (by Argwai96) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.43h):
wall at 715 has doubled in the last 10 minutes.
I saw that-- interesting... also, btc-e now has small walls
second half removed....
20.
Post 4051329 (copy this link) (by Argwai96) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.43h):
devcoin fo life!!!!
21.
Post 4051356 (copy this link) (by Argwai96) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.43h):
Hey guys were up 70% in a bear market rally which follows a dying exchange. Time to buy buy and choo choo to the moon?
top here?
i sold the rest when gox approached 750. i saw great resistance there.
break below 700 on any volume triggers ending diagonal. watching patiently, praying i am right.... ready to cry when i am wrong.....
22.
Post 4051361 (copy this link) (by Argwai96) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.43h):
Why do you keep thinking of "cash" as profit?
I wonder how many people in the Bitcoin trade see BTCs as a tool to earn USDs, and how many see USDs as a means to grab more BTCs.
depends if bull or bear market for me
23.
Post 6848216 (copy this link) (by Argwai96) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.45h):
So is everybody in agreement? on to the next bubble now, moon time? i have been having my space suit tucked away in the closet for many months now. You guys telling me it is time to take it out?
I broke out the space suit when we crossed 480! We could pull back abit but it's moon time real soon, Im strapped in and ready to go!
24.
Post 6857986 (copy this link) (by Argwai96) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.45h):
Seems we have flattened here at 490-495, kinda thought we might dip and make a nice flag. Dont really know what to think. Any thoughts on where were going from here? (besides the proverbial moon)
25.
Post 6898139 (copy this link) (by Argwai96) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.46h):
Well I sure hope we get some real accredited exchanges that people can trust sooner than later. Trying to know market sentiment if the action is off exchanges is kind of difficult...
26.
Post 6900385 (copy this link) (by Argwai96) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.46h):
Regarding Bitstamp issues - there hasn't been widespread confirmation that this is happening, and the news materialising on a Friday afternoon (GMT) just before a bank holiday from a freshly created reddit accounts adds to the suspicions. If Bitstamp had reasonable grounds for concern why would they allow the BTC transfer but not the fiat? It could just be an isolated case or some fabricated FUD. Although unlike the traditional FUD this would boost the BTC price.
Could boost price a bit, but it might just result in more so of an MTGOX situation, where Stamp price diverges from the rest of em. I am still pretty skeptical of this story..
27.
Post 6924807 (copy this link) (by Argwai96) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.46h):
I don't mean to be interrupting all this choo chooing and all -- it's very fun. But I cant help but notice this on the below chart. Anyone think we are due for a correction yet? I think we could be on an overall up trend, but...
28.
Post 7049368 (copy this link) (by Argwai96) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.48h):
Huobi seemed to start pumping, then abruptly stopped. BTC-E didn't follow at all. Bitstamp in doublt top territory. Wonder if momentum will come back? Or if we slide down from here?
29.
Post 7384610 (copy this link) (by Argwai96) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.53h):
I'm not seeing the bearish momentum develop. Seems no one is willing to take this down. Got nervous on a couple of these mini-dumps, but I'm pretty sure we'll take off to $630+ soon.
30.
Post 7384862 (copy this link) (by Argwai96) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.53h):
Who is noticing the large BTC orders appear on the Bitfinex walls only for them to be consumed within a split second before any non-exchange insider traders can react to them!? As if to give an illusion of support as Bitcoin begins it's crumbly grind down to find support at lower price levels........"ooooh, maybe I shouldn't sell cos look at those big 150 BTC orders at 605!!?"
Bitfinex paint the tape, and fake volume, and everyone knows that they do. Not that it matters in the bigger picture. Bitstamp will decide what the market does.
Try saying that again.. in a way that makes sense, preferably.
Hmmm. Made sense to me. I tend to agree that there is far more order book "manipulation" on BFX than any other exchange. Pretty see-through most of the time.
But Bitstamp has become near irrelevant. Huobi and OKcoin drive almost everything, and I've seen BFX nudge the Chinese exchanges as well (yesterday's run-up, for instance).
31.
Post 7743683 (copy this link) (by Argwai96) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.58h):
It someone knows a good place to get a decent TA talk, please share the address, this thread is getting worse and worst quality.
By the way, it seems the dumper manipulator whales are drying his stack, price is slowly and steadily climbing +24h
Try
www.tradingview.comAlso, consider checking out the "Bitcoin" chat on tradingview. It took me a little while to find it. But lots of traders share their charts there (and cheerlead for their positions
)
32.
Post 7929399 (copy this link) (by Argwai96) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.59h):
Seeing a rising wedge here, with one leg up to make. That's usually pretty bearish, isn't it? But both bulls and bears are looking pretty weak.
It's a closing pennant pattern. July 24 to August 1, I say. But I may BULL-shit you, as I usually do...
I've never heard of a closing pennant pattern before. Do you have a chart to show? It doesn't look like a bull pennant to me.
Me either. It looks like a rising wedge to me. Which has bearish bias BUT I've seen them break up in bitcoin, for sure.
33.
Post 7932702 (copy this link) (by Argwai96) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.59h):
The high and low price is becoming a tighter and tighter range...is this the calm before the storm? Given our history, we can only be stable for so long before there's some more action...
Yep, bollinger bands have been pretty squeezy recently, should see a strong move soon. I just hope it's to the upside.... been holding and waiting for a breakout a few weeks now.
Yeah, I believe the last time we were stable for a good amount of time we ended up flash crashing...so hopefully this is the opposite this time around
Which time was that? Price volatility has really died generally the past couple months. Price action right now reminds me of the $440-450 level, tbh, but I don't want to get my hopes up, either.
34.
Post 7933844 (copy this link) (by Argwai96) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.59h):
Short term, not sure what to think. I thought we were seeing a rising wedge, but the bottom seems to have fallen out (and not much momentum followed). Could still see a third drive up.
35.
Post 8260290 (copy this link) (by Argwai96) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.03h):
Looking good. I mean, for those people who are wanting to buy.
Yeah, looking like it.
100% retrace and then some on that pump. I guess it was just a short squeeze after all. Damn..... life of a bagholder.
36.
Post 8326296 (copy this link) (by Argwai96) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.04h):
Gotta love the smell of panic in the morning.
Capitulation? No. Dip..? Yep.
'The end'? Oh please, get a grip!
Buying - looking nice and cheap to me. Accumulation is the game, play it. The big money is.
Fair enough. This is the best level to accumulate at, though? I could see it as a good long term play. But Huobi is bear flagging as we speak, and we are simply pausing on a major support, not even bouncing after a first wave down. I'd think we're at least going to the next support level.... 520-530. But very possibly 400s.
37.
Post 8326367 (copy this link) (by Argwai96) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.04h):
What makes you think next year people suddenly will start buying?
It failed. Bitcoin failed. Things that fail don't suddenly get big a year later.
Bitcoin failed because the price dropped? How does it look to you when you look year over year? Doesn't look so bad then, does it? People thought that bitcoin was doomed in 2011 too, I assure you.
38.
Post 8326387 (copy this link) (by Argwai96) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.04h):
I think 555 support will hold and bears will need to dump it all if they want to take out support on Stamp. I just woke up and bought at 555.55, so I'm pretty chuffed
Lets see how chuffed you are on e we break 540.
I tried e back in the day and it was pretty awesome. I am however currently not on e. There is no need for it... According to Jesse from Kraken trading BTC is about as addictive as crack.
It don't think we will break 540, but we will see...
There is a bullish divergence in the RSI and this could be an sign that we are recovering. It is a bit too early to say for sure though. I'm hoping we will recover from to current level and then head back up to $585 (at least
).
What time frame for the RSI divergence? If you look at the hourly before the last drop, we were forming bullish divergences then too. All it did was bring the RSI above oversold and then BOOM, selling. Divergences can be very deceiving during strong trends, and on longer time frames, they can take some time to play out.
39.
Post 8326844 (copy this link) (by Argwai96) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.04h):
Wow, I was just looking at Bitfinex swap data against price. It's amazing how most people go long at the top and short at the bottom. Simply amazing. Must be a lot of traders in pain right now (and maybe at all times)....
40.
Post 8327189 (copy this link) (by Argwai96) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.04h):
Interesting:
https://blockchain.info/tx/1f2885265a89c6817867e842edf65c536f993c0aa0100a692700a34c81230051Looks like Ethereum coins are starting to be moved out of the "exodus" address. Now, I wonder if any of those coins will start making their way to exchanges.... :trollface:
41.
Post 8327362 (copy this link) (by Argwai96) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.04h):
This is a huge support..... and nobody's buying. Huobi got a bear flag going. I don't think we have hopes for a double bottom here. I think we're going downtown. Just my two cents.
42.
Post 8327409 (copy this link) (by Argwai96) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.04h):
Is this an exchange address? Any analysts out there? Curious what's happening to these Etherium coins.
https://blockchain.info/address/1L1JRVExeKiqBU1pmvoyzCfRzCfEP64pBJ
43.
Post 8327493 (copy this link) (by Argwai96) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.04h):
Well we have hit the support 5 times now. Will be interesting if it breaks.
Indeed. A double bottom can be strong. Triple bottoms are rare -- more often at that point (and with subsequent touches), I think we tend to see bearish triangles form. If it breaks, we might finally break out of this terribly boring sideways/down and get some volatility back.
44.
Post 8328027 (copy this link) (by Argwai96) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.04h):
Hmmm, that was a lot of coins sold on Stamp. Parity across exchanges now, except BTCE has now broken into the 530s. Where do we go from here? I think we could still be in for some strong down movement....
45.
Post 8332634 (copy this link) (by Argwai96) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.04h):
Gotta love the smell of panic in the morning.
Capitulation? No. Dip..? Yep.
'The end'? Oh please, get a grip!
Buying - looking nice and cheap to me. Accumulation is the game, play it. The big money is.
Fair enough. This is the best level to accumulate at, though? I could see it as a good long term play. But Huobi is bear flagging as we speak, and we are simply pausing on a major support, not even bouncing after a first wave down. I'd think we're at least going to the next support level.... 520-530. But very possibly 400s.
Yerp..What a night, huh?
It was looking grim, and it seemed there was no buyers at 55x to discourage the bears. You guys think we have bottomed? I'm feeling it is not over yet. But China is sleeping soon, and we have some steam to blow off first...
46.
Post 8334583 (copy this link) (by Argwai96) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.04h):
I'm also sad that TERA is gone.
TERA is a coward and a manic/depressant.
Seriously, dude? What's with the ad hominem? Not many good analysts on this forum, and she made some good calls if I remember correctly. She attack you personally or something?
47.
Post 8334625 (copy this link) (by Argwai96) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.04h):
Bids filled. Waited for that since Sunday
Also thinking about moving funds on finex and opening some longs.
I see many here are buying back!
Ouch. I hope you waited to open those longs.
Word. Like I said ITT last night, I expected a bounce at the 520-530 area -- should be strong support. But longer time frames are bearish, and plenty of room to fall on daily RSI and Williams %R.
48.
Post 8352757 (copy this link) (by Argwai96) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.05h):
We reached the bottom. I'm back in. Thanks for playing.
Good for you. Not sure on the bottom part, but always good to profit in coins. I got in 50% at 46x and am waiting to see if this turns back down....
49.
Post 8352816 (copy this link) (by Argwai96) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.05h):
Sure, I don't think China is always leading anymore, and their volume numbers are incomparable anyway since they still have no fees. I just watch stamp/finex/huobi and when all 3 converge (no significant/unusual divergences), the trend is clear. When there's a divergence, then we have lots of friction and it's hard to sustain movement before resolving it.
I find that China is still driving the action, but that Stamp and BFX mitigate or exacerbate the moves. For example, Stamp's enormous bid walling sometimes stops Huobi's down moves short. BFX's cascade last night drove us down. But the trend was already clear there.
50.
Post 8352924 (copy this link) (by Argwai96) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.05h):
Yep.. I noticed that too... Risto can be a little bit pompously irritating from time to time - even if he may be dropping some otherwise decent data and/or historical perspective.
Oh please. Do you know how many people he's hurt with his "decent data and/or historical perspective?" You do know he thought BTC would be at $10k back in late 2011/early 2012 right? And was actively promoting such stupidity?
Yeah... I had noticed also that he does tend to be a bit more hyper-bullish than the rest of the bullish ones.
Timing is always much harder than levels. A perfectly correct fundamental thesis, which depends on chaotic maturation processes will always be thus. You're just exhibiting a short time-horizon here.
On said short horizon, Monkey thinks the uptrend can last 20 hours.
More importantly for me, Monkey calls an ES1 top, CL1 bottom, intraday, now. (These are counter-trend reversals, i.e. episodes in a larger ES1 uptrend, CL1 downtrend, which are in turn episodes in yet larger ES1 downtrend/CL1 uptrend regimes).
Do you have a chart that shows these levels? What are your targets? I think this looks like the type of sucker rally before final legs down.
51.
Post 8352946 (copy this link) (by Argwai96) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.05h):
We reached the bottom. I'm back in. Thanks for playing.
When Shroomskit calls a bottom we know for sure the bottom isn't in yet. Sorry buddy but your pain isn't over yet.
My opinion as well. Hit the .786 on Huobi with a little panic, but hit the brakes now. I think we HAD to bounce after that BFX margin call cascade. Such fun!!
52.
Post 8353399 (copy this link) (by Argwai96) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.05h):
Always such butthurt and drama in this thread. Anyone got a chart? Any price targets? To the moon or to the depths of hell? Risto got his own thread, anyway....
53.
Post 8353547 (copy this link) (by Argwai96) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.05h):
china not following, I find that bearish.
dont forget that this dip started in china.
My thinking as well. They have been initiating all the moves lately -- the other exchanges just overshoot in both directions. But maybe Huobi can form a higher low here. Hard to say....
54.
Post 8353980 (copy this link) (by Argwai96) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.05h):
firstly because I am not impressed with the volume on bitstamp. second, this is just a low volume rebound.
when it eventually goes up, volume will be thin relative to times past, simply because of scarcity.
Perhaps. However, whenever we have seen high volume capitulation spikes in the past, the resulting bull volume is usually quite large. I don't think we'll see the liquidity scarcity come into play until we're at higher levels than this.
55.
Post 8354945 (copy this link) (by Argwai96) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.05h):
I am an permabull. I know the value of the technology, I know the VC money being pumped in, I know the value of having control over your own money. However I would love to see the price tank down in to the $300's for a completely and utterly selfish buying opportunity.
I'm a bull in a bear suit. I want more cheap coins. I bought more in the $460s last night and I would LOVE a trip to the $300s. Hell, give me $260. I'll buy em all.
56.
Post 8356585 (copy this link) (by Argwai96) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.05h):
I am an permabull. I know the value of the technology, I know the VC money being pumped in, I know the value of having control over your own money. However I would love to see the price tank down in to the $300's for a completely and utterly selfish buying opportunity.
I'm a bull in a bear suit. I want more cheap coins. I bought more in the $460s last night and I would LOVE a trip to the $300s. Hell, give me $260. I'll buy em all.
Sometimes it is NOT for your own good to get your wish... Do you realize that? I question whether it would be o.k. for Bitcoin prices to dive down into the $300s or $200s
Whether it would be okay? What's the problem? Blockchain not working anymore? Bitcoin dead? The price doesn't matter in the short term. If you think BTC will exist in a year or two, it is "okay."
57.
Post 8356613 (copy this link) (by Argwai96) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.05h):
I feel like I've reached a new level of bitcoin awareness. Screw guys like Risto, they don't know what they're talking about. Here's the real deal: We had a slight rebound from ~$500, but once again, it was on low volume. Do we really need to debate what that means?
I see no urgency from whales to buy in. I know what capitulation looks like -- seen it enough times. Massive bids appearing every few seconds to meet massive market sells. We've seen no panic whatsoever, just a single dump and subsequent margin calls on BFX.
58.
Post 8360369 (copy this link) (by Argwai96) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.05h):
Well folks... we going to break the $525 resistance or are we going to swing back down and start another cascade?
Last two days we saw the drops between now and 5 hours after now.
If we see no drop, I will start to believe in stabilization, for now.
No such thing as stability here. This is just low volume consolidation after yesterday's shockwaves. Personally, I think we could see some very strong downwards movement in the coming days. I think we are unlikely to pass $530.
59.
Post 8360567 (copy this link) (by Argwai96) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.05h):
Looks like the manipulator is back... Everybody, get your puke bags ready.
Hmmm? I don't see anything out of the ordinary on any of the exchanges. Still just sideways consolidation. But I expect to break downwards within a day. Just a hunch. I'd keep on the lookout for another 5k sell on Bitfinex.....
60.
Post 8882690 (copy this link) (by Argwai96) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.14h):
my first bid on
btc-e is @135$
edit: and then all the way to 99$
What a fantasy!!!!
You better put some BTC sell orders in the $3,000 price range, too, just in case it goes quickly the other way.
Have you ever traded on BTCE? In February, I caught coins from $140 - $270 (my lowest bids were at $140). In the last cascade, I caught coins from $320 - $360. It's not fantasy at all. BTCE is very thinly traded and extremely easy to manipulate. They will (or
someone will) run stops and we could easily cascade down there, given a little push.
61.
Post 8883284 (copy this link) (by Argwai96) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.14h):
my first bid on
btc-e is @135$
edit: and then all the way to 99$
What a fantasy!!!!
You better put some BTC sell orders in the $3,000 price range, too, just in case it goes quickly the other way.
Have you ever traded on BTCE? In February, I caught coins from $140 - $270 (my lowest bids were at $140). In the last cascade, I caught coins from $320 - $360. It's not fantasy at all. BTCE is very thinly traded and extremely easy to manipulate. They will (or
someone will) run stops and we could easily cascade down there, given a little push.
Yes. This is true
happend once.
The last one wasn't as deep, but it did happen again a few weeks ago. Stamp and Bitfinex only hit $440-450 area, but BTCE cascaded down to $309. You really think if we have another capitulation, that BTCE can't stop/margin call people down to $100s? I always, always keep low bids on BTCE.....
62.
Post 8883310 (copy this link) (by Argwai96) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.14h):
I was promised $350 coins!
I think you'll probably get them. I could see us popping up a bit from here.... $440-450.... but this is not over IMO. I think it's very likely at this point that we'll see a high volume sell-off. Unless we go sideways here for a few weeks, I think whales are very unlikely to try to pump from here. And there are simply no buyers....
63.
Post 8883908 (copy this link) (by Argwai96) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.14h):
my first bid on
btc-e is @135$
edit: and then all the way to 99$
What a fantasy!!!!
You better put some BTC sell orders in the $3,000 price range, too, just in case it goes quickly the other way.
Have you ever traded on BTCE? In February, I caught coins from $140 - $270 (my lowest bids were at $140). In the last cascade, I caught coins from $320 - $360. It's not fantasy at all. BTCE is very thinly traded and extremely easy to manipulate. They will (or
someone will) run stops and we could easily cascade down there, given a little push.
I have an account there and i have traded a little bit there, but I have NOT put too much in cash because my average price per BTC is still in the red for 10 months... approximately.
How many coins did you purchase at those discounted prices?
I'm just a little fish in this ocean.... <100 the first time and the second time it only hit my first two bids so it was <25. Back in February I traded only on BTCE, I've since spread out to other exchanges to manage the exchange risk. But sometimes I get ancy knowing that BTCE seems to be the only place that flash crashes like that and actually lets you keep the coins (doesn't roll back like Bitfinex in February)...
64.
Post 8884077 (copy this link) (by Argwai96) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.14h):
I believe it is NOT a small fish to have the equivalent of 25 to 100BTC worth of Fiat on BTC-e waiting there (tied up) and ready to buy bitcoins in the event of a flash crash... Yes, I understand that it happened twice in the last 9 months and then it happened once on the upside on the Euro market.
Gotta really spread your money around to prepare for those kindso f eventualities, and personally, I sleep much better with my money in BTC than I would with my money in FIAT on those exchanges, especially during times like these when I am of the belief that BTC prices are quite a bit below the trendline... which in my thinking at any time we could have an upward explosion in price.. and in those circumstances, I would resent having my fiat NOT working for me.
I do have cold storage but all the coins I bought before I started trading were < $100. Something in me won't let myself
not hedge my position in a serious downtrend. I'm lucky I never traded on Gox... and I'm aware of the risk of keeping money on these exchanges. BUT this market is so damn juicy. If Huobi/OKcoin/Bitstamp can get down to $270-350 we could rally hard..... that'll be a trade worth taking. Otherwise I'll go back all in on a strong breakout on the daily chart.
65.
Post 8884405 (copy this link) (by Argwai96) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.14h):
I believe it is NOT a small fish to have the equivalent of 25 to 100BTC worth of Fiat on BTC-e waiting there (tied up) and ready to buy bitcoins in the event of a flash crash... Yes, I understand that it happened twice in the last 9 months and then it happened once on the upside on the Euro market.
Gotta really spread your money around to prepare for those kindso f eventualities, and personally, I sleep much better with my money in BTC than I would with my money in FIAT on those exchanges, especially during times like these when I am of the belief that BTC prices are quite a bit below the trendline... which in my thinking at any time we could have an upward explosion in price.. and in those circumstances, I would resent having my fiat NOT working for me.
I do have cold storage but all the coins I bought before I started trading were < $100. Something in me won't let myself
not hedge my position in a serious downtrend. I'm lucky I never traded on Gox... and I'm aware of the risk of keeping money on these exchanges. BUT this market is so damn juicy. If Huobi/OKcoin/Bitstamp can get down to $270-350 we could rally hard..... that'll be a trade worth taking. Otherwise I'll go back all in on a strong breakout on the daily chart.
Could you share some good hedging strategies in Bitfinex?
I meant hedging in a very general sense. By that I mean, holding dollars waiting for reentry and/or occasionally shorting, as opposed to just holding BTC. I'd consider using futures if only I could understand them (or more to the point, the psychology of that market).
In reality, and I'm sure I'm going against the grain on this forum, but the safest haven right now is the dollar. I'm still waiting for entry into long term gold and silver positions as well, but IMO those are ready to decline significantly over the next year as well.
66.
Post 8884487 (copy this link) (by Argwai96) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.14h):
Think we'll see fireworks during Friday? catching people of guard, not sure what I expect at this point another leg down or a green spike with everyone thinking it's about to get worse.
I'm expecting more downside, but I'm not sure that this bounce is complete. Could still retest that broken support around $440. So I'm not shorting here. On the flip side, if we steamroll through 2850 CNY, I might have to chase after the train.....
67.
Post 8891526 (copy this link) (by Argwai96) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.14h):
Note that since Wall Street entered, the price has dropped almost $300 (nearly 50%). You are all getting f---ed, you know.
What do you mean
since Wall Street entered? Did Wall Street make an announcement that they were entering the bitcoin market? There's FIG and SM but those are pretty LOL.
68.
Post 8892299 (copy this link) (by Argwai96) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.14h):
^^ Okay, now pull up a daily chart. Do we call that one the "stairway to hell?" Just saying..... still looks ugly right now for the bulls.
69.
Post 8892413 (copy this link) (by Argwai96) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.14h):
I'd love to see some confirmation about this BFL story. All we have is the word of some forum poster? Don't the US Marshals make some sort of press release about this sort of thing?
70.
Post 8892911 (copy this link) (by Argwai96) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.14h):
Whenever blockchain.info is screwed up I defer to blockr.io .... it's worked every time I've tried when blocks aren't showing up on blockchain.info.
71.
Post 8894284 (copy this link) (by Argwai96) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.14h):
..these people don't seem to want to stop till Bitcoin is completely destroyed and left like an old cum rag in the corner of the room.
This quote should be immortalized, instant classic.
Immortalized!
Hmm so bitfinex has a unique way of performing margin calls. First they add it on the ask side, if nobody buys after a certain time it gets dumped.
Yes, it's very interesting that they're essentially speculating on their own with user funds instead of liquidating @market.
Really? Did they state they do this? How would one be able to tell by watching the charts -- couldn't someone just be placing asks, then removing to market sell when they aren't bought?
72.
Post 8895810 (copy this link) (by Argwai96) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.14h):
..these people don't seem to want to stop till Bitcoin is completely destroyed and left like an old cum rag in the corner of the room.
This quote should be immortalized, instant classic.
Immortalized!
Hmm so bitfinex has a unique way of performing margin calls. First they add it on the ask side, if nobody buys after a certain time it gets dumped.
Yes, it's very interesting that they're essentially speculating on their own with user funds instead of liquidating @market.
Really? Did they state they do this? How would one be able to tell by watching the charts -- couldn't someone just be placing asks, then removing to market sell when they aren't bought?
I recall that they did within this thread (the principle, but not the specifics of the algo, obviously), read it very carefully:
https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/2dohjg/im_josh_rossi_from_bitfinex_here_to_talk_about/Interesting. I have seen the speed bumps in action and have experienced them myself (quite annoying sitting with partially filled orders with no idea whether BFX will fill them or not). But I had not taken this to mean that.
73.
Post 8895828 (copy this link) (by Argwai96) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.14h):
Indeed, or if we are being conservative they are at least saying that they decide how the impact will be on the market. The only way they can do this is by taking a position, bid or ask. So in essence that is market manipulation. Claiming that they are not trading on behalf of users is just nonsense. Margin call is either dump or not. If its not then its taking a position (using user funds for speculative reasons).
With the notion of speed bump they admit to intervening. Also because they adjusted it from market dump (the default way of doing it), the only other option is that they actually take positions.
(The only other way is to dump some then wait for bid side til fill in again, but that is also manipulative. They are actively deciding what the price will be)
Of course they are manipulating. I've always preferred the way BTCE handled things -- the order book is the order book, period. But given the ease of causing margin cascades, as Bitfinex has such low liquidity, I can understand their position to an extent.
74.
Post 8895949 (copy this link) (by Argwai96) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.14h):
adamstgBit -- True that. Very good points. A couple months ago, I thought we might visit these levels, BUT I also thought we would have a high volume selloff and rally, like we have several times before. This time, there are no buyers at every damn support level we hit. This environment is one of very low confidence. There is no reason anymore to try to buy the bottom. Better to wait for the market to show signs of reversal, whether that's at $380 or $300 or $250 or $80.....
75.
Post 8910358 (copy this link) (by Argwai96) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.15h):
If you haven't taken profit, yet, on a long then do it now and reverse course to a short. The local top on BFX was only $407.9... not $409. Market is turning back down, now.
Merry Christmas.
P.S. - Do you own analysis... this is just what I am seeing and responding to.
Just a personal comment: I used to trade the way that you do. Be careful with the size of your trades and
set your stops. I got hit 3 times with whale dumps out of the blue. You are trading on the short term patterns; whales see the same patterns, wait for the minnows to get positions, then drop you 20-30 USD with minnow sales as the extra fuel. 1 dump will wipe out your profits from 4 or 5 previous trades.
I'd also say, before careful with stops. Especially if you're trading on BTC-E or Bitfinex. Both those places, you see stop running all the time. That's those huge wicks -- people's stops being hit and cascading.
76.
Post 8915826 (copy this link) (by Argwai96) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.15h):
I don't see anything too bullish here yet. There is maybe a triangle developing here. But we never even made the 61.8% retracement from the last major move, and now just consolidating a bit above the bottom. Seems like continuation coming most likely. But keeping my eyes open for a bullish move.
77.
Post 8916598 (copy this link) (by Argwai96) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.15h):
I don't see anything too bullish here yet. There is maybe a triangle developing here. But we never even made the 61.8% retracement from the last major move, and now just consolidating a bit above the bottom. Seems like continuation coming most likely. But keeping my eyes open for a bullish move.
This. Rallies are not supposed to be this boring. General rule of thumb... a rally without volume doesn't hold. That said, I don't know if we'll go much lower than we already have or even lower than the low from the other day at all... we have to test it again, though.
The most important thing is that sellers get exhausted. But I haven't seen the type of spike in volume or momentum to indicate that -- and we won't fly to the moon at this snail's pace. So, my thinking is that we are burning off steam from that corrective rally to 430s and are gearing up for more down.
78.
Post 8917866 (copy this link) (by Argwai96) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.15h):
And price just broke 400 again on Stamp and Finex...
Break below and back above again. This is choppy, alright. I'm still really unclear on where this will go next.... I think $420 and definitely $440 are resistances we are unlikely to pass. And I have my sights set on $340 or a bit higher before we see a nice rally.
79.
Post 8918011 (copy this link) (by Argwai96) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.15h):
We are on the verge of the biggest bubble ever....
People are still calling for bubbles? Maybe we should break the bear market first. I don't think the relationship between transactions and price is clear at all (it could also be manipulated pretty easily).
80.
Post 8919116 (copy this link) (by Argwai96) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.15h):
10,856 shorts
and longs went down today.
pretty sure poeple at bitfinex don't have a clue what they're doing...
Still lots of active USD swaps, though. With all this choppy action, it just seems like there are lots of traders (both bull and bear) who are either on the wrong side of the market, or are right on the cusp. Dangerous time to be holding any position, really. My eyes are on buying at mid-300s.