All posts made by scarsbergholden in Bitcointalk.org's Wall Observer thread
1.
Post 2696881 (copy this link) (by scarsbergholden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.09h):
Building a launchpad at $77. Next stop $90
Should be heading towards the $90 mark soon.
thats what i had thought, but this sideways / stagnation has me nervous. ready to press that red button soon maybe
2.
Post 2843123 (copy this link) (by scarsbergholden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.12h):
That's what I'm seeing anyway.
The volume trend line isn't nearly as linear as that. Head and shoulders may confirm but I think we bounce at 103-104.
3.
Post 3382226 (copy this link) (by scarsbergholden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.18h):
im glad i have been all in for a while, but boy am i getting worried that this will reverse soon!
4.
Post 3382327 (copy this link) (by scarsbergholden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.18h):
im glad i have been all in for a while, but boy am i getting worried that this will reverse soon!
Same, i'm looking at the depths. big ask walls ahead on both gox and stamp. Maybe a bigger correction is coming, if it doesn't go higher in the next 24hours, it will probably go down and shake weak hands.
All of the alts in the top 10 marketcap are taking a dive.
http://coinmarketcap.com/Does this typically precede a correction?
naw btc rises like this, all alts fall together.....
5.
Post 3383843 (copy this link) (by scarsbergholden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.18h):
Gentleman, fasten your seat belts. We are crossing $200 tonight!
did not expect to think this this morning, but you may be right
6.
Post 3383963 (copy this link) (by scarsbergholden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.18h):
Thursday is a magnet for crashes.
weird. can you give me an example?
7.
Post 3383991 (copy this link) (by scarsbergholden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.18h):
Thursday is a magnet for crashes.
weird. can you give me an example?
Black Thursday, Thursday the 13th, the Mayan calendar ends on a Thursday, Adam and Eve bit the apple on a Thursday. History is full of examples.
surely there are examples of other days of the week as well?
8.
Post 3384005 (copy this link) (by scarsbergholden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.18h):
Thursday is a popular day for crashes. One seventh of all crashes happen on a Thursday.
hehe, that' what i was thinking!
9.
Post 3384212 (copy this link) (by scarsbergholden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.18h):
Much less hype than last time we approached 200. Are we that far from the top?
Relatively speaking, were much further along. Then we were heading up from $10-$30 on a long climb. Crossing 100 was a big milestone also.
After 267, what's the next milestone in your book? $500? $1000? I feel like we are very far from maintaining those numbers.
just because btc closed one day above 200 before doesnt mean its going 4x 266 six months later.
10.
Post 3384957 (copy this link) (by scarsbergholden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.18h):
Holy shit, China is just not stopping.
Not only will they not stop pushing the price up, but the walls go up immediately behind them!
unfortunately those walls are pretty shallow and there is very little bid support keeping this above 1000 CNY.
11.
Post 3517036 (copy this link) (by scarsbergholden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.21h):
going pretty parabolic here.
12.
Post 3566099 (copy this link) (by scarsbergholden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.23h):
Could it be that the Bitcoin popularity arrived at a bad time? I mean this year the price surged and many people became aware of Bitcoin but looking at the infraestructure that surrounds Bitcoin you can see that it is still in its infancy so I imagine many people who got interested in it at first also got dissapointed when they found all the trouble trading with Bitcoins entails, all the technical stuff surrounding it and the kind of shadyness of many of the services surrounding the virtual coin. For example the noobishness of some of the big exchanges. I can't help but feel that the hype was somehow kind of wasted because of all these problems. Maybe later when the infraestructure is more mature people will adopt it faster and it will become a much bigger phenomenon. What do you think?
yeah thats part of the reason why this will be such a big crash, but we might hit four digits first
13.
Post 3689555 (copy this link) (by scarsbergholden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.28h):
wait were not going to the moon anymore?
14.
Post 3689679 (copy this link) (by scarsbergholden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.28h):
why do i care what keiser says?
15.
Post 3689758 (copy this link) (by scarsbergholden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.28h):
Sorry to quote that guy but...
How does it feel to have dump 250BTC at the bottom? (again)
I love those so called 'pro' traders
Red candles everywhere. PANIC. Just dumped 250 coins @ 805.
if this is double top, 805 was good place to sell. hard to sell at perfect time. we'll see.
16.
Post 3689882 (copy this link) (by scarsbergholden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.28h):
Sorry to quote that guy but...
How does it feel to have dump 250BTC at the bottom? (again)
I love those so called 'pro' traders
Red candles everywhere. PANIC. Just dumped 250 coins @ 805.
if this is double top, 805 was good place to sell. hard to sell at perfect time. we'll see.
we are holding gains in prev. Bears territory !(rejection) ie. high 800ths .. that alone is Bullish .. !
remember Price+Time = Value.. ie. if we stay above 800 and or near the ATH .. this will lead to common conclusion that this former rejected price is now considered fair !
ie. sign of strenght !...
ok. well it takes a lot more than that to convince me. thanks
17.
Post 3689898 (copy this link) (by scarsbergholden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.28h):
Sorry to quote that guy but...
How does it feel to have dump 250BTC at the bottom? (again)
I love those so called 'pro' traders
Red candles everywhere. PANIC. Just dumped 250 coins @ 805.
if this is double top, 805 was good place to sell. hard to sell at perfect time. we'll see.
we are holding gains in prev. Bears territory !(rejection) ie. high 800ths .. that alone is Bullish .. !
remember Price+Time = Value.. ie. if we stay above 800 and or near the ATH .. this will lead to common conclusion that this former rejected price is now considered fair !
ie. sign of strenght !...
in deed. Furthermore, the alleged 'double top' is only on gox, and was created by a single player's dumping (and whatever panic dumping ensued). Hardly the kind of double top which signals a trend reversal
id say TA is much harder to talk about, with specific formations, because exchanges being so uneven and arbitrage going on. may also see double top on btcchina (top of first bounce)
18.
Post 3817629 (copy this link) (by scarsbergholden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.31h):
bitcoinity just switched to mBTC by default - awesome!
so dumb, switched it right back.
19.
Post 3823887 (copy this link) (by scarsbergholden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.31h):
when it comes to bitcoins, i prefer to keep my unit in bitcoins. if my bitcoins are worth $1MM each, i don't care if satoshis are 1c each.
what i do know is that if bitcoin continues to see exponential growth in coming years, repeatedly changing the unit doesn't help the confusion at all.
20.
Post 3823914 (copy this link) (by scarsbergholden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.31h):
Nobody posted about the fact that BTC reached parity with gold again for a little while.
What's the deal with this "gold parity" fallacy? I can understand why the media is picking it up, it sure sounds catchy, but it's completely meaningless except for that rather shallow psychological reasons (I'm not dismissing psychological reasoning altogether, just pointing out that this one is really rather dumb and easy to see through). If we ever reach parity with tradeable gold
market cap, now that would be news. But I'm pretty sure it's a long way til we get there, if ever.
it's completely stupid. 1 oz = 1 bitcoin? what is that supposed to say? i'm a bull too, but these shenanigans are just stupid.
21.
Post 3823919 (copy this link) (by scarsbergholden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.31h):
Nobody posted about the fact that BTC reached parity with gold again for a little while.
What's the deal with this "gold parity" fallacy? I can understand why the media is picking it up, it sure sounds catchy, but it's completely meaningless except for that rather shallow psychological reasons (I'm not dismissing psychological reasoning altogether, just pointing out that this one is really rather dumb and easy to see through). If we ever reach parity with tradeable gold
market cap, now that would be news. But I'm pretty sure it's a long way til we get there, if ever.
It's just a milestone.
it's not. based on the mBTC crowd's reasoning, we won't be using 1 oz as the standard measure in the future.
22.
Post 3824071 (copy this link) (by scarsbergholden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.31h):
it's not. based on the mBTC crowd's reasoning, we won't be using 1 oz as the standard measure in the future.
Sure it is. A milestone is just an arbitrary marker. In this case a moving one.
shrug, yeah i guess i always saw all these milestones as meaningless anyway, so, sure.
23.
Post 3824141 (copy this link) (by scarsbergholden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.31h):
i dont think i plan on selling bitcoins for dollars for a very long time. ive made so much on these altcoin rallies, who cares about making maybe 50% (at best if i do well on a 75% or something fall) on a btc correction.... i cant believe all these newbies pouring money into altcoins, i feel so bad for them.... making 400%+ gains in less than an hour, that is not right....
24.
Post 3831669 (copy this link) (by scarsbergholden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.32h):
Btce is where the big swings are. During high volatility, it follows gox almost perfectly. Bitstamp on the other hand moves slowly and unexpectedly. While btce is having a 15% swing, bitstamp will have a 1% swing... bitstamp can royally screw you as a trader trying to make a trade that would be perfect anywhere else. Also, btce's exchange engine works flawlessly - the best, it has the least downtime, and you can trade altcoins. What more can you ask for? When it comes time to withdraw THEN you can send your coins to bit stamp.
all of this. btce is the best for everything except fiat deposit/withdrawal. difficult to deposit and very low price if you want to exit to fiat. if you are into that sort of thing.
25.
Post 3831674 (copy this link) (by scarsbergholden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.32h):
Granted i traded btc without issue, Btce is incompetent or near scam when dealing with USD deposit. And i dont know about usd withdrawals..
I'm still waiting for my wire deposit to get credited after 10 days.
this is true, i would not wire money there.
26.
Post 4605733 (copy this link) (by scarsbergholden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.57h):
looks like it doesnt want to go up anymore. are we going to the moon or what?
27.
Post 6847015 (copy this link) (by scarsbergholden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.45h):
So is everybody in agreement? on to the next bubble now, moon time? i have been having my space suit tucked away in the closet for many months now. You guys telling me it is time to take it out?
28.
Post 6847063 (copy this link) (by scarsbergholden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.45h):
last time, it went from about 130 to over 1100 - almost a ten-bagger
this time, it's launching from 450
my question to you is, when are you selling?
Seems most are thinking it's bubble time? Hmmm. What was that thing people say about everyone expecting the same thing? Hehe.
Yeah, IMO you aggressive bulls are jumping the gun here. We popped a bit which caused wavering fence sitters to freak out and buy. We'll consolidate here for a bit, and hopefully trickle up for a month... this price action will start convincing the larger players and the media that the next run is coming. But I don't think its bubble time, instead compare it to the rebound from 2 to 4+ (in early 2012).
this
this would be my greatest wish, nice slow growth
my greatest fear is that this will hit 6 digits before the next block reward halving
Yeah that would be horrible to hit 6 digits before 2017, especially for those NOT invested in BTC.
Bleh, I'm holding some pretty big bags right now.... from much higher prices.... so let's have it. 6 digits before 2017 sounds okay to me. we can't hold the train forever for all those laggards!
29.
Post 6902743 (copy this link) (by scarsbergholden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.46h):
I think I will target 505-508 for a buy and stop it out around 497. If that 507 level (.382) holds then I could see another leg up to 575-590 otherwise we are heading downtown imo
30.
Post 6902785 (copy this link) (by scarsbergholden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.46h):
TBH it would not surprise me at all. Bitstamp has some really bizarre ideas about AML/KYC requirements. I mean I get it, BTC is a new asset class, no one knows what to do/how to comply. But they have been going about it in a uniquely bizarre manner for some months now. And I never could understood how their questionnaire even answers AML/KYC concerns
31.
Post 7152245 (copy this link) (by scarsbergholden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.51h):
This is my short term outlook. We are in a triangle, and I think one more leg down with higher low and we are set for takeoff. I think 4H RSI agrees.
32.
Post 7355142 (copy this link) (by scarsbergholden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.53h):
I think we're still consolidating bullishly, hugging the .382 of the whole recent rise from the low $400s. That little mini dump shook some bears out. Now we go up.
33.
Post 7365641 (copy this link) (by scarsbergholden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.53h):
Still looking bullish IMO. I think some may be getting bearish because of the sideways...but we're sitting on strong MA and fib support. And looking at a bull flag.
34.
Post 7365926 (copy this link) (by scarsbergholden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.53h):
One way or another, any minute now =>
Doesn't look like a proper triangle to me. And once it's to the end it is very unreliable. Any "breakout" could just be continued sideways at this point.
35.
Post 7740971 (copy this link) (by scarsbergholden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.58h):
Hobo looks like it wants to break out in its sleep. 200 in bids up at spread and back up to 1800 down to 3800. Come on, let's pump this thing....
36.
Post 7929078 (copy this link) (by scarsbergholden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.59h):
It's a closing pennant pattern. July 24 to August 1, I say. But I may BULL-shit you, as I usually do...
I've never heard of a closing pennant pattern before. Do you have a chart to show? It doesn't look like a bull pennant to me.
37.
Post 7932086 (copy this link) (by scarsbergholden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.59h):
The high and low price is becoming a tighter and tighter range...is this the calm before the storm? Given our history, we can only be stable for so long before there's some more action...
Yep, bollinger bands have been pretty squeezy recently, should see a strong move soon. I just hope it's to the upside.... been holding and waiting for a breakout a few weeks now.
38.
Post 8255790 (copy this link) (by scarsbergholden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.03h):
One of the most amazing things I've ever seen.
What is so amazing? They sold a bunch of Ethereum, and then they are cashing out in increments in order to pay for some "business expenses." Are the amounts off or what?
The fact that people have already donated 25K+ btc to Etherium and when/if it launches the market is going to crash.
Meanwhile, Ether is inflationary and its market concepts work to lessen the value of Ether over time as well.
Its a horrible horrible investment. Horrible.
And yet countless people are throwing their money away at it.
Wow, that's a lot of BTC people put in. Never understood why I should buy Ether, myself. Any thoughts on whether this 25k+ BTC might have a negative impact on BTC/USD?
39.
Post 8255980 (copy this link) (by scarsbergholden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.03h):
Wow, that's a lot of BTC people put in. Never understood why I should buy Ether, myself. Any thoughts on whether this 25k+ BTC might have a negative impact on BTC/USD?
I think only negative impact on ETH stockholders.
But in the blog, they're talking about literally dumping some of the BTC on the market for expenses payable in fiat currency. How much is not clear. I suppose those with debt payable in BTC were likely to have held in the first place, though.
40.
Post 8256137 (copy this link) (by scarsbergholden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.03h):
Wow, that's a lot of BTC people put in. Never understood why I should buy Ether, myself. Any thoughts on whether this 25k+ BTC might have a negative impact on BTC/USD?
I think only negative impact on ETH stockholders.
But in the blog, they're talking about literally dumping some of the BTC on the market for expenses payable in fiat currency. How much is not clear. I suppose those with debt payable in BTC were likely to have held in the first place, though.
It is very good for Bitcoin. Cheap coins will change hands.
Ah, sure, I didn't mean "bad for bitcoin"... by negative impact on BTC/USD, I just meant a downward pressure on the price. The whole thing is a bit opaque, though. Not clear to me how much it could affect that.
41.
Post 8275671 (copy this link) (by scarsbergholden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.03h):
Not gonna lie. Looked pretty clear that someone was just buying their own asks on Huobi. I'd love to see some up here, but with this kind of pump action and nobody following, it doesn't look all that good....
42.
Post 8275793 (copy this link) (by scarsbergholden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.03h):
Not gonna lie. Looked pretty clear that someone was just buying their own asks on Huobi. I'd love to see some up here, but with this kind of pump action and nobody following, it doesn't look all that good....
I think it is clear that someone made a deal to buy 10000 bitcoin via huobi.
Pretty convenient timing then... asks kept being placed directly before 100-400 BTC buys..... and price moved like $6 on the whole move. We'll see where it goes from here, but seemed like a lot of volume and momentum and not much movement at all.
43.
Post 8275862 (copy this link) (by scarsbergholden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.03h):
Not gonna lie. Looked pretty clear that someone was just buying their own asks on Huobi. I'd love to see some up here, but with this kind of pump action and nobody following, it doesn't look all that good....
I think it is clear that someone made a deal to buy 10000 bitcoin via huobi.
Pretty convenient timing then... asks kept being placed directly before 100-400 BTC buys..... and price moved like $6 on the whole move. We'll see where it goes from here, but seemed like a lot of volume and momentum and not much movement at all.
regardless on the 1minute it looks like more coins are bought over all which is why I say this is accumulation station time lol
That's what I thought when that guy at 3600 kept refilling bids there. Like, moon time, whales are accumulating. But then, that pump a couple days ago, quick 100% retracement! That is not bullish. Ask wall after ask wall being placed, as if all the accumulation from 3600ish was being dumped 50 CNY higher....
44.
Post 8275968 (copy this link) (by scarsbergholden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.03h):
Ask wall after ask wall being placed, as if all the accumulation from 3600ish was being dumped 50 CNY higher....
Isn't that what day traders are supposed to do?
Sure, but I wouldn't expect day traders to be flipping thousands of coins over such a small spread, given the incredible lack of volume we have seen in recent weeks. Seems risky for such short term gains.
45.
Post 8286686 (copy this link) (by scarsbergholden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.03h):
Looking good. I mean, for those people who are wanting to buy.
The question is how long the horizontal trend will last. Can't wait forever u know.
And you aren't the only one. I think the best way to answer your question is to find out who has to sign off on what inside the SEC before COIN gets listed. Find out what side of their bread is buttered, and you will know the outcome. If you can isolate the key decision makers, then trace the financial moves of their friends & family, you may see exchange-based bitcoin accumulation, or buying into SecondMarket's fund et filia. That would be a big red flag in front of the bull move.
I like your thinking.
Is it just me, or does that sound very illegal? I don't know what kind of prohibitions SEC decision markers are under with this sort of thing, but there's got to be something that covers that....
46.
Post 8290201 (copy this link) (by scarsbergholden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.03h):
Wall games at Huobi. Saw ~1200 in bids pulled near 3600.... some were replaced, only half. And now a 250+ ask wall near the spread. In recent days, that would have been immediately bought. Not today....
47.
Post 8307673 (copy this link) (by scarsbergholden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.04h):
Bouncy bouncy.
Unfortunately, this bounce is significantly less bullish looking than the last bounce of 56x levels. Last time, it was a fluid, round bounce on RSI, MACD and OBV. This time, significant struggle and chewing up momentum for minimal gain. Looks like a dead cat bounce to 580 or so then test of 550 levels IMO.
48.
Post 8307756 (copy this link) (by scarsbergholden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.04h):
If we go below the 560 for any significative ammount of time, according to the 12 hours graph, we will go down and I don't know were are we expected to stop - maybe somewhere in the 400's?.
Monkey puts that number at 440.
So you sold.
The price is so far down a grand total of 18 dollars with the same number of coins on stamp to run up to over 600 as 540. We haven't even breached any made up technicals yet.
What was that advice previously off posted here: if in doubt, hold!
Actually no, I bought some. Monkey says if it breaks down the turn is likely at 440. But monkey doesn't see a break down yet.
A break of what level might do it for you? I am watching closely at 540-550 area. If that fails, I think we will see 400s again. Still not too much momentum downward, but that can change in an instant.....
49.
Post 8308234 (copy this link) (by scarsbergholden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.04h):
Bitcoin going down simply isn't good. No matter what excuse you guys come up with.
I think if we could push below 500, we'd have a nice oversold shakeout capable of rallying hard. These bottom fishing attempts almost feel like staving off the inevitable, but I could certainly be wrong....
50.
Post 8308334 (copy this link) (by scarsbergholden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.04h):
Buying a little bit to lower average.
Wondering why people expect btc to rise to usd10k? for what reason they believe in this?
Well, the exponential growth trend (though that is lagging heavily to the downside now)..... Metcalfe's law (although the accuracy of that theory is up for debate)..... the storage of value and value transfer capabilities of BTC......
51.
Post 8863112 (copy this link) (by scarsbergholden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.13h):
Is it time to place some 100-200$ bids on btc-e?
Yes, it's exactly that time. Well, I'd say a good chance over the next week or two anyway. I've got my bids on BTCE weighted towards $100.....
52.
Post 8866116 (copy this link) (by scarsbergholden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.13h):
It appears the heavy hitters are pulling out of BTC and going into Alts such as PPC and NMC and others as of late...
The more simple answer is there are more sellers (mostly miners) than buyers (retail or institutional).
3600 bitcoins are mined everyday
But why Miner selling on lose, I do not think they are even ROI on mining on this price.
Miners are not necessarily selling at a loss. You can't look at retail mining costs to assess large, well-funded mining operations. Likely, many large operations have sources for cheap production of up-to-date ASICs and access to cheap electricity.
Still, at this point, the only option to maintain operations is to pay your bills in fiat. So..... it should always be assumed that anyone invested in a mining operation may have reason to sell, regardless of price.
53.
Post 8866130 (copy this link) (by scarsbergholden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.13h):
FINAL (double) BOTTOM IS IN!
Wow, you are still bullish? You did better as a bear troll. I figured when the market refused to bounce, you'd return to the dark side....
54.
Post 8866810 (copy this link) (by scarsbergholden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.13h):
wtf is happening with PPC
Wowsers. Too bad I missed the PPC train. Haven't wanted to touch any of the BTC-E alts in quite a while.... they all seemed dead. I suppose this was bound to happen at some point.
55.
Post 8876803 (copy this link) (by scarsbergholden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.13h):
Ah, good. It has been an eventful evening. Hopefully this turns into a real panic selloff that we can base and rally from. Give me a nice V bottom. 300s, please.
56.
Post 8876966 (copy this link) (by scarsbergholden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.13h):
I guess we're now re-testing a very very long term support line. This is worrying! If we break below $350 - I don't like this saying at all usually - we're doomed!
I am very, very confident that we will bounce ~ $340-360 (maybe wick a bit lower), and I do think that we will go there. Still may not be bottom by any means, but we should rally off there methinks.
57.
Post 8877044 (copy this link) (by scarsbergholden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.13h):
I guess we're now re-testing a very very long term support line. This is worrying! If we break below $350 - I don't like this saying at all usually - we're doomed!
I truly think we're fucked if we cross that point. It simply shouldn't go that low if Bitcoin is healthy. If we cross it then there is something seriously wrong and there will be a good chance it won't go up anymore.
If we go below, I hope I'll get to buy some of your coins.
Fucked? Hehe. $350 is a good buy, there should be some upside to trade off that. But I think the down trend could continue and soon enough we'll find ourselves wondering if we'll be truly fucked if/when $260 breaks. That'll probably break, panicky buttcoiners will panic sell the bottom and then maybe we can have us a rally.
58.
Post 8877059 (copy this link) (by scarsbergholden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.13h):
That's basically a big underlying problem. No trustable, big and known exchange.
Totally. I loathe keeping so much funds spread across these exchanges. I can't trust a damn one. But bitcoin is also a horrible store of value. So.....
59.
Post 8877093 (copy this link) (by scarsbergholden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.13h):
I guess we're now re-testing a very very long term support line. This is worrying! If we break below $350 - I don't like this saying at all usually - we're doomed!
I truly think we're fucked if we cross that point. It simply shouldn't go that low if Bitcoin is healthy. If we cross it then there is something seriously wrong and there will be a good chance it won't go up anymore.
Actually, I would look at it differently. If we go that low, and people really do start cashing out at a major loss, then we're looking at another 2+ years before even getting near the last ATH. Because no matter how revolutionary bitcoin may be, the Average Joe just doesn't care enough to continue to lose money. Period.
we're playing hot potato with ourselves.
This whole year IMO has been traders sloshing funds back and forth, trading with one another, with little new money entering.
Annnd BTCE is back retesting 400.
60.
Post 8877223 (copy this link) (by scarsbergholden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.13h):
Yes volume is a bit low imho
Hodlers be hodling. We have all seen this before, though. Eventually the dam breaks and we get a high volume selloff. It's a good thing -- it's something we may actually be able to rally from. This never-ending bottom fishing will never allow a base to rally from.
61.
Post 8877258 (copy this link) (by scarsbergholden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.13h):
You guys with your "if the price goes below xyz, then Bitcoin is DEAD" are the real weak hands if you truly believe that.
Seriously. I've been a huge bear for months and am loving every minute of this. But I also love bitcoin and know that this sort of thinking is total nonsense.
62.
Post 8877312 (copy this link) (by scarsbergholden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.13h):
back to 440?
Possible, I think we may have a small bounce to retest that resistance before heading back down.
Bulls' last line of defense broken, all hope for a near-term bullish scenario crumbled, it's time to capitulate.
Agree, more or less. This kind of grind down has high volume capitulation written all over it. Nothing is set in stone, obviously, but I've certainly seen this before and felt this sentiment.....
63.
Post 8877352 (copy this link) (by scarsbergholden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.13h):
What would be dead is the inflated expectations of a few overzealous people. That's all.
So it's greedy if a bitcoiner buys a bitcoin sometime, ANYTIME in the year 2014, and expects it to more or less retain it's value? Should no one have bought any bitcoins AT ALL in 2014 and held them?
Honestly answer the question. 2014 is nearly over, it's been 10 months.
You think most people buying bitcoin did so because they "expect it to more or less retain its value"? That's mistake #1. I'd re-frame the question....
64.
Post 8877419 (copy this link) (by scarsbergholden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.13h):
What would be dead is the inflated expectations of a few overzealous people. That's all.
So it's greedy if a bitcoiner buys a bitcoin sometime, ANYTIME in 2014, and expects it to more or less retain it's value? Should no one have bought any bitcoins AT ALL in 2014 and held them?
Honestly answer the question. 2014 is nearly over, it's been 10 months.
Maybe not greedy but naive? Bitcoin went up x100 in 2013. Do you expect this to just maintain its value without major corrections?
If you want to retain value short to mid term at least, then Bitcoin is not the asset to do that. Bitcoin is an asset to look for high growth, and with that growth comes the cost of RISK.
Sticky please. First post everyone should read who enters this forum.
This is what frustrates me about the constant touting of bitcoin as a "store of value." Ask anyone who bought in during 2014 how that's working out for them.
65.
Post 8877475 (copy this link) (by scarsbergholden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.13h):
Shorts are decreasing as price is decreasing.
The dumps are real panic sellers.
Not even a short squeeze can save us right now.
Yep, I've closed 80% of my short. Letting the rest ride or will stop it out above $440. I don't plan on entering longs until $300-360 range. Very ugly time to be going long.
66.
Post 8877526 (copy this link) (by scarsbergholden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.13h):
This is what frustrates me about the constant touting of bitcoin as a "store of value." Ask anyone who bought in during 2014 how that's working out for them.
Ask anyone who bought in during 2014 how expectations of
higher growth are working out for them too.
So what's left.... currency usage? Yeah ok.
What exactly would you like to hear?
Possibility for high growth -- at great risk. Buttcorn is a high risk, illiquid market. It's a brand new asset class. Few people know what to make of it. The potential for massive growth is there, as we have seen. But chasing after bubbles is very risky business.
67.
Post 8877581 (copy this link) (by scarsbergholden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.13h):
What would be dead is the inflated expectations of a few overzealous people. That's all.
So it's greedy if a bitcoiner buys a bitcoin sometime, ANYTIME in 2014, and expects it to more or less retain it's value? Should no one have bought any bitcoins AT ALL in 2014 and held them?
Honestly answer the question. 2014 is nearly over, it's been 10 months.
Maybe not greedy but naive? Bitcoin went up x100 in 2013. Do you expect this to just maintain its value without major corrections?
If you want to retain value short to mid term at least, then Bitcoin is not the asset to do that. Bitcoin is an asset to look for high growth, and with that growth comes the cost of RISK.
Sticky please. First post everyone should read who enters this forum.
This is what frustrates me about the constant touting of bitcoin as a "store of value." Ask anyone who bought in during 2014 how that's working out for them.
Now go ask the same question to those who bought in 2012/2013 and come back in a few years.
Is that what a "store of value" is? Buy today, lose more than 1/2 the value in several months, and then hope we have a bubble that goes 10x my initial buy-in a few years later? Is that a "store of value"?
68.
Post 8877660 (copy this link) (by scarsbergholden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.13h):
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO, it's a store of value being built. Do you actually believe that because some monopoly money went into bitcoin the last few years, it's already a store of value? NO, but the potential of it becoming a store of value is there.
Okay, great. Let me know when we get there. For now, it's simply silly to me to see so many touting it as such. There is also potential for buttcoin to be worth zero.
69.
Post 8877886 (copy this link) (by scarsbergholden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.13h):
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO, it's a store of value being built. Do you actually believe that because some monopoly money went into bitcoin the last few years, it's already a store of value? NO, but the potential of it becoming a store of value is there.
Agreed with that as well.
I wonder why so many people in here are so binary in their thinking: Bitcoin is a terrible store of value currently (and a highly speculative asset), a not-too-shabby medium of transfer, and absolutely not a unit of account. If things go well, it
might be a store of value in the future, and the likelihood of that happening is exactly what we're collectively determining/discovering here, through the markets.
I bolded the key word. Anything can happen in the future. Bitcoin
might be worth zero in the future as well. My point was that there is a prevalent attitude in this community that bitcoin
is a store of value and that
buying now is always a good idea. I'd not even consider such terms as "store of value" until bitcoin is much more entrenched.
70.
Post 8879463 (copy this link) (by scarsbergholden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.14h):
What would be dead is the inflated expectations of a few overzealous people. That's all.
So it's greedy if a bitcoiner buys a bitcoin sometime, ANYTIME in 2014, and expects it to more or less retain it's value? Should no one have bought any bitcoins AT ALL in 2014 and held them?
Honestly answer the question. 2014 is nearly over, it's been 10 months.
Maybe not greedy but naive? Bitcoin went up x100 in 2013. Do you expect this to just maintain its value without major corrections?
If you want to retain value short to mid term at least, then Bitcoin is not the asset to do that. Bitcoin is an asset to look for high growth, and with that growth comes the cost of RISK.
Sticky please. First post everyone should read who enters this forum.
This is what frustrates me about the constant touting of bitcoin as a "store of value." Ask anyone who bought in during 2014 how that's working out for them.
Now go ask the same question to those who bought in 2012/2013 and come back in a few years.
Is that what a "store of value" is? Buy today, lose more than 1/2 the value in several months, and then hope we have a bubble that goes 10x my initial buy-in a few years later? Is that a "store of value"?
scarsbergholden: You seem to be exaggerating a little bit and playing ignorant. I believe that store of value merely means that by the time you cash out, the asset is worth at least the same and potentially more than it was worth when you purchased it. Surely, with storage of value, you would probably like it to hold at least the value of relatively stable storage of value mechanisms... maybe expecting some appreciation of value between 3 to 5% per year. Of course, if it gains greater value than otherwise stable value storage vehicles, then that would be icing on the cake.
Then we disagree on the definition of a store of value. While Wikipedia is shite, I think it has this sentence right -- "The point of any store of value is intrinsic risk management due to an inherent stable demand for the underlying asset."
To act as if bitcoin can serve this role would be to play ignorant. Bitcoin is in its infancy. I'm not denying the potential, but I don't think we have the price history and historic demand to feel confident as a store of value at all.
Using stores of value is a way to manage your risk. Buying bitcoin is, on the other hand, a very risky investment. That doesn't mean we can't go to the moon. But the point still stands.
71.
Post 8880270 (copy this link) (by scarsbergholden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.14h):
They don't evaporate, rust or rot. Ergo, a store of value. What is wrong with you guys?
I have a bunch of rocks in my yard. They formed long, long ago. And they will be with us for a long time to come. How much are they worth to you?
72.
Post 8880363 (copy this link) (by scarsbergholden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.14h):
8-10h left until the wires of @loaded hit Bitstampīs exchange.
May
God @loaded show us his favor and bless us.
(Beeing in in DOGE/PPC and USD felt really good the last days btw )Has Loaded actually been around? I haven't seen that guy since Gox. And he always seemed to keep massive amounts of funds on Gox. I assumed he got Goxxed badly and accordingly disappeared, like many others.....
73.
Post 8881201 (copy this link) (by scarsbergholden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.14h):
If this doesn't pick up momentum to the upside soon, this is actually a very bad sign. A short squeeze is to be expected -- but if this is true and we don't reverse.... add another 2k BTC in leveraged longs waiting to be dumped....
74.
Post 8881213 (copy this link) (by scarsbergholden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.14h):
V bottoms need volume, and frankly this has got to go deeper to find it. Usually V bottoms are accompanied by a massive spike in sell volume that indicates exhaustion. We see nothing like that here.
75.
Post 8881252 (copy this link) (by scarsbergholden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.14h):
If this doesn't pick up momentum to the upside soon, this is actually a very bad sign. A short squeeze is to be expected -- but if this is true and we don't reverse.... add another 2k BTC in leveraged longs waiting to be dumped....
There's not gonna be a short squeeze cause its not easy to short BTC. These are real sellers
There are always short squeezes. If you look at bfxdata, we often see shorts increasing while the price is moving down -- then when we bounce, short swaps spike down. This is a short squeeze. A short squeeze can be just a little spike -- it has nothing to do with a reversal.
76.
Post 8881407 (copy this link) (by scarsbergholden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.14h):
If this doesn't pick up momentum to the upside soon, this is actually a very bad sign. A short squeeze is to be expected -- but if this is true and we don't reverse.... add another 2k BTC in leveraged longs waiting to be dumped....
There's not gonna be a short squeeze cause its not easy to short BTC. These are real sellers
There are always short squeezes. If you look at bfxdata, we often see shorts increasing while the price is moving down -- then when we bounce, short swaps spike down. This is a short squeeze. A short squeeze can be just a little spike -- it has nothing to do with a reversal.
What's the short interest then? The only place you can short is bitfinex. And that's just one exchange. If those short positions get squeezed (from rising price). Doubt they would be enough volume to cause lift-off
More importantly, you can short on Huobi (BitVC) and OkCoin. Also BTCE through FXopen and MT4. And yeah, that's why "it has nothing to do with a reversal" -- it's just a short squeeze. Not real buy pressure.
77.
Post 8881506 (copy this link) (by scarsbergholden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.14h):
do you think Ghash/cex.io had anything to do with today's crash? If you check bitcoinwisdom you will see there is a dump of over 1.2 PH of GHS corresponding just before the BTC dump that caused the price drop.
Interesting. Are you suggesting that some large miners shut down and are dumping some of their holdings? If we keep on this way, I suppose that's inevitable at some point.
78.
Post 9966349 (copy this link) (by scarsbergholden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.41h):
I've noticed a pronounced divide between winners and loser lately. Remember that a lot of us aren't traders, and joined this year. Imagine that, if you will. It's hard times, brothers, I promise you
friend of mine got in at $30 in 2011. He had to wait almost 2 years to become a happy man.
He's a patient guy ^^
But because it worked before, doesn't mean it will certainly happen again.
Anyway I think price probably will recover before 1-2 years. But buying during a bubble and holding without stop loss is not a good investment strategy and should not be an example of being "smart" despite of results.
It also doesn't mean that someone will have the forethought to sell at the right time (or to not sell at the wrong time). Someone who bought in 2011 had to wait through many bubbles in order to have their bitcoin be worth what it is today. Each bubble, both the runup and the pop would give someone who has been hodling a long time many chances to sell
79.
Post 13985710 (copy this link) (by scarsbergholden) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.45h):
