Kelly Criterion is mainly useful when you can estimate the expected value of the investment which you can't with bitcoins.

Can someone explain the large Bid Ask imbalance - I mean it is easy to see but with so many bids (support?) right below the price and so few sells above the current price, shouldn't we be going up?
I've noticed it slowly had been building the last 2 or 3 days (as we went down.)

IAS

Looks bearish to me.

It should begin going down as we are near a full moon.

That dump recovered valiantly. I am very confident in 120 in <48 hours.

I don't write, that I know the price will rise or fall.

But I know that within a few days either we break the downtrend or support line.

And then the trading volume will be greater, that's what I wrote.

According to the chart, it looks like a possible stabilization (end of this wave), at least for the next few days.

Of course it will be safer after several hours.

off to go test 100, 105?

The "evidence" the bears have been pointing to unisono is the pattern one can see on the 3 month chart. 3 x lower highs and 2 x lower lows. The idea is that this pattern will continue and next we'll see a lower low (<$67). One can even find similarities within the patterns and the predictive method used is extrapolation of the pattern.

I'm not ruling out a lower low. One would probably put it at $50 and incidentally we would then have reached the post-bubble low for a second time putting in a double bottom with extremely high volume and huge probability of a bounce there.

There would then (during the bounce back up) be talk of both reversal and bull trap / dead cat bounces.

If we subsequently break $50 after that, there will be the long-awaited capitulation. Bulls will be broken and people who didn't sell substantially post-bubble would start considering it and some will. People will leave the forums pissed off at this scam that is bitcoin and media will start some negative talk. There would be long squeezes of leveraged bulls who fell for the trap and downward accelleration. Raw irrational panic. People who were waiting for cheap coins will still be waiting, infected by the fear and panic and shocked their bearish dreams came true. They would not buy until things turn around substantially. Many coins would change hands at the real bottom, however, and this is when real money is made and lost.

I hope the bears are happy about me describing this fantasy. Again: I don't rule it out, but neither should the bears rule out the possibility we won't put in a new low below $67 and just sneak slowly sideways/up helped by good fundamentals.

There's no "evidence staring us in the eye". Noone knows, everyone believes.