All posts made by bitdig in Bitcointalk.org's Wall Observer thread
1.
Post 2549933 (copy this link) (by bitdig) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.06h):
Just want to subscribe to this thread...
2.
Post 4746091 (copy this link) (by bitdig) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.59h):
It can't be reserve currency, not in the near future, not when 47 people, holding 30% of all bitcoins, mostly very young people can dictate its price... When, and if, they start to cash out we might start think about it...
There is a whale of a lot of comment about this mining reward becoming the dominant currency of some future world. I cannot believe that, for many reasons.
I'm becoming increasingly convinced that it will become a major currency, a reserve currency. It has no counterparty risk. Debt-based money has always and will always fail, either gradually or suddenly. Only hard money is without counterparty risk. The technical superiority of BTC to gold is obvious, and you can't overcome that gap without introducing counterparty risk. USD,EUR,RMB,JPY are all teetering on the brink of the largest synchronized sovereign crisis in the history of the world. They have sown the wind, and will reap the whirlwind. It's mathematically inevitable at this point. We just don't know how long the dead men can keep walking.
3.
Post 4746972 (copy this link) (by bitdig) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.59h):
Lets agree that for btc to become "reserve currency" it doesn't really matter if there are 30, 47 or 200 people holding those chunk of coins... still the price can be manipulated...
It can't be reserve currency, not in the near future, not when 47 people, holding 30% of all bitcoins, mostly very young people can dictate its price... When, and if, they start to cash out we might start think about it...
I agree that the bitcoin wealth distribution likely follows a Pareto distribution (many coins are held by only a few people), but do you realize that the "47" number was pulled out of...I mean "estimated" by Risto Pietila right here at BitcoinTalk.org?
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=432430.msg4740844#msg4740844
4.
Post 4781279 (copy this link) (by bitdig) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.59h):
5.
Post 4781369 (copy this link) (by bitdig) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.59h):
I just posted about it few posts above.
Metabank.ru one of the biggest "middle man" already closed..
While everyone is busy talking about Charlie Shrem's arrest, no one seems to notice the REAL reason for the market plunge. That is, 3 hours ago
Bitcoin was officially banned in Russia. No English language news source yet, but Russian newssites are all abuzz about it:
http://bitnovosti.com/2014/01/27/bank-rossii-ozvuchil-poziciyu/Use Google translate, everything is quite clear. Everything is banned, including mining, exchanges, transfers and payment processing. Each company accepting Bitcoin will be automatically charged with "supporting terrorism".
Russia wins the dubious distinction of the first country in the world to officially ban Bitcoin (unlike earlier Thailand myth).
6.
Post 4781573 (copy this link) (by bitdig) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.59h):
not exactly, it states more closely to: if you will use bitcoins, we might consider you are involved in terrorism and/or money laundering and such...
While everyone is busy talking about Charlie Shrem's arrest, no one seems to notice the REAL reason for the market plunge. That is, 3 hours ago Bitcoin was officially banned in Russia.
From what I can understand of the Google translation they did not quite ban it, but declared it illegal for use as currency (like China did), forbade banks to handle it (like China did, and banks in most other countries prudently refrained on their own), warned citizens of its high investment risk, and finally scared everybody with "you may find yourself involved in nasty crimes if you try to work with it".
7.
Post 4783823 (copy this link) (by bitdig) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.59h):
Anyone with knowledge of candlesticks?
8.
Post 4783880 (copy this link) (by bitdig) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.59h):
750..700..650.. and maybe 610...
Are we going to see 750 soon?
9.
Post 5060364 (copy this link) (by bitdig) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.06h):
There is a chance for another scenario
BTC-E owners sold their own 8.5k of BTC to drag the price that down, to hit all stop loss of orders with 1:3 leverage on their MT4 platform.
Few months ago, I got my account wiped out with $35k in Metatrader with 1:3 leverage,the interesting thing is that on all exchanges price did not went under $425, but on btc-e it just triggered my margin call at $375 and went up from there. I felt that the price was manipulated just to wipe my account... Here might be the same scenario..
Bitstamp is back to the niveau before the Gox news
A lot of pigs got slaughtered.
I'm just wondering if the one who sold 8.5k BTC with a market order on BTC-E taking the price down to $102 is a mentally challenged trader who went full retard or just a poor guy who got his account hacked.
He lost MILLIONS to the lucky bastards that had bids down to $100 on BTC-E. Somebody six-folded his money in a couple of seconds.
Pretty sure this was a cascade of forced liquidations, not one actor.
Well, 8.5k coins were sold in the same minute. That was either:
a) one single trader going full retard
b) one huge account got hacked
c) multiple accounts were hacked and were liquidated simultaneously
The fact remains that some bastards got HUNDREDS of coins at $102. I guess the risk of having fiat on BTC-E paid off big time.
EDIT: THOUSANDS of coins in the $100-$200 range
The seller/s lost MILLIONS to those who had the low bids.
10.
Post 5066009 (copy this link) (by bitdig) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.06h):
Not really, you have $100, they give you $200 more, so you play with 300$, when you open/close position they charge you 5% on 300$. To lose all your money you need bitcoin to go down by 33%...
I am talking about leveraged longs. BTC-E is a leverage trading platform via Meta Trader. Pretty sure this was a string of forced liquidations.
They should not allow monstrous leveraged positions to be build up that are larger than their own thin order book, this is just insane.
Right, Btc-e is taking Huge risk , they are GAMBLING with Customers USD deposits by allowing 1:3 leverage. If those are indeed forced liquidations, btc-e suffered millions in loss.
11.
Post 5270549 (copy this link) (by bitdig) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.14h):
Even if Gox is bankrupt, with their current price, all they need is to borrow some cash, buy enough bitcoins and tell everyone that everything is good - they will make 3-4 times money... Oh wait they even don't need to borrow, they just need to write these numbers on their accounts...
So, I think they know they are loosing business, so they decided to make some cash, before "closing", so they won't need to work anymore... Ever...
My prediction, at some point, soon, they will tell that everything is ok, and price will fly (with their accounts full of btc)..
12.
Post 5442291 (copy this link) (by bitdig) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.22h):
Not much, 2000 left..
http://www.coindesk.com/mt-gox-files-bankruptcy-claims-63-6m-debt/"That same document also described fiat assets of $32.43m and liabilities of $55m. The assets include $5m “held by CoinLab” and another $5.5m “held by the DHS”. "
So $21 million in liquidity remains in Gox bank to be disbursed to clients. How much will go back to purchase real coins!
Once gox is done liquidated, we are going up..
But this also means they have to liquidate their remaining coins FIRST, if any left?
13.
Post 5454032 (copy this link) (by bitdig) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.22h):
After Gox is gone, to get to $800 or to $400 we need less coins, as far as those 750k coins are out from trading, in other words support levels are much thinner in both ways.... It will be easier to manipulate the price now...
I expect much higher volatility from what we are used...
And current price is relatively high, as far as we got here thanks for Gox speculations and China, the only thing that holds us here is a memory that "this is cheap", but actually now, it is not cheap, relatively small dump of coins will get us down, back, when Gox was alive this dump wouldn't get us that low as we could "visit" these days....
If the market was rational, this would be extremely bearish.
the situation is extremely bearish
prepare for a long and slow way down (similar to 2011)
I remain bullish for the long term , but we will visit the low triple digits (maybe high double digits too)
before we Choo Choo again
currently I am @ 15% BTC 85% Fiat , and hodling even if we go down to zero
YOU are too extremely bearish to be taken seriously..... sorry about that.. but if we go down.. we are LIKELY not going to go down below $450... and we may not even go below $500... current bitstamp price is about $570-ish...
likely we will be going to the baby moon with the next week or two.. which is in the 750-850 range, and then within the next three to six months, we will be going to the $1500 ish arena...
After MtGox hack in July 2011, there was a "424242.424242" transaction to prove MtGox solvency. Can't lookup details who asked for that prove and how exactly it was proven.
Unless properly designed, this "proof" could be made by thief himself.
AH HA!!!!!! The thief himself could be reading this thread>>>>> gocha!!!...... The thief himself may be in our midst... .. .or the thief himself may be drinking pina colatas in the bahamas......
No, you are too bullish to be taken seriously. We will not be hitting 750-850 in 2 weeks.
My described scenario is much more likely to occur than BTC hitting double digits.. that is truly a pie in the sky prediction that is RIDICULOUS.....
So, anyhow, based on the news currently in front of us.. and NO dramatically new developments NOT inferred from the current news, I predict that it is much more likely that we will hit the $750 to $850 range than to hit anywhere below $450 (except for some possible flash crash). If we hit anywhere below $450, it is NOT likely to be sustained more than 4 hours. True that the $750 price point may NOT be sustained in the next couple of weeks... but in the next couple of months or so, we are likely to be sustaining more than $750 .. and likely higher than that BTC price points.
Let's revisit this topic in May or June 2014, and I bet we are closer to $750 than we are to $450... and really not much chance of double digits any time in between.. absent NEWS that was NOT anticipated on this date.. ... maybe .01% chance of reaching BTC double digits?
Surely, I am speculating as well.. and I am also betting my money accordingly into BTC on my expectations...
14.
Post 5454192 (copy this link) (by bitdig) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.22h):
I believe after Gox issues it will take us longer to get to 3200, so they will have time to fix it
Fun facts, did you know that you can only set a max selling price of 3200 usd per btc on btc-e..
15.
Post 5454613 (copy this link) (by bitdig) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.22h):
btc-e doesn´t
EVEN need to confront any consequence saying thank you and good bye
watch how easy it was for Mark just bowing down saying sorry and thank you while laughing his ass off
and delegating the rest to the laywers.....a bit embarassing may be inside the wider community...but
btc-e doesn´t need to confront any consequence saying thank you and good bye
16.
Post 5462014 (copy this link) (by bitdig) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.22h):
Dare to sell your signals? I would be interested to buy
Go away with your emotional buy and hold propoganda. I've heard it a million times and I'm not interested in the buy and hold strategy. If all I ever did was buy and hold I'd have 2% of what I have now. I'd have NOTHING.
You've made 50X your original buy-in? So about the same as everyone who's been holding for a year, right? Is it worth all the stress to marginally outperform the market? I mean, you don't seem to be enjoying it, judging from your posts.
I'm not marginally outperforming the market. I'm outperforming it by 5,000%. You must have misinterpreted my post.
Let me get this straight. Bitcoin is up ~600% since you started trading, so you've made ~300X profit in fiat terms? Is that what you're claiming? That's difficult to believe considering some of the bad calls you've made.
Good morning, I told you that people trade and make profit and you didnt believe and I showed you screen shots of my trades and my profits but you still attack traders and shoot buy and hold buy and hold, you know if I did that my average BTC cost would be 55.7 or near that, but you know what is my BTC average now ? well it is not $10 and not 5 and not $1 and not even $0.1/BTC but it is $-700, yes negative, that means that each BTC has generated $700 for me already, and that means even if BTC goes to $0 I wouldnt be effected, because it is like I sold all my BTC at $700.
I never told you it is bad to buy and hold, in fact this is what I recommend all my friends to do, but we do trade and we are aware of the risks, for now if BTC price wont drop further and if we stay at this price or shoot up to 600-650 I will have to buy back with a 30-35 BTC loss and I am aware of this risk.
but we tend to challenge the market by predicting moves and we get rewarded with X% profit or get fucked up, this is why trading is not for everyone...
17.
Post 6398961 (copy this link) (by bitdig) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.40h):
Sleep well, it might take a month or even two
It is here and it is ~alright
I am going to sleep so I want to wake up @800.
Good nite
18.
Post 6720715 (copy this link) (by bitdig) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.44h):
Government (china) can make bitcoin illegal, put it in the same place where drugs are... I don't know if china kills people for drug use... how this gonna affect bitcoin?
Windjc is right, it takes a lot of money to raise btc price at this mkcap. And without A LOT of fresh fiat it is not very possible scenario. We better hope BTC adoption suddenly accelerates and creates a new hype. Its good that money is flowing into infrastructure and eco-system because without that btc has no sense except for speculation, and at least it is getting some positive news coverage.
I am a long-term bull but what you hope for is not enough.
Adoption can take off all over the world but if it does not take off in China (and clearly this is what the Chinese government wants) then Houston, we have a problem! (Please see above posts for why I think this is the case)
'
Bullshit....
Bitcoin > CHina
+1,000
Adoption can take off all over the world but if it does not take off in ChinaIF it takes off all over the world.. then the Chinese government, despite their efforts won't be able to stop people.
The great Firewall of Chine people.. it couldn't stop the internet.. sure it made it less straightforward.. but if people want something.. then their government sure as hell won't be able to stop them. So.. if it 'takes off all over the world' - there'll be nobody left behind.. everyone will want some regardless of what their government tells them.
19.
Post 7653027 (copy this link) (by bitdig) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.57h):
Good news on bitcoin seems not do much to raise bitcoin
We need bad news on fiat to move bitcoin up
facebook twins show progress on nasdaq
bidder of btc silk road auction comes forward (big into btc investment)
newegg says it will take btc
kuwait oil (dept of some kind) says use btc to pay for oil
BITCOIN DOES ZIP STAYS AT AROUND $645 usd
One small 12 year old girl with a blog in china says that chinese gov't is gonna ban the sale/mnfg of bitcoin miners
and BTC drops to 400 usd
humans are soooo silly
Searing
