All posts made by bitcryptonit in Bitcointalk.org's Wall Observer thread
1.
Post 2699746 (copy this link) (by bitcryptonit) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.09h):
None of the whales want the price to go back to $90-100 yet. There is way, way, way too much money to take from people who will give up their coins when first $60 doesn't hold, and then $50 doesn't hold, and then $40 and $30 are realities.
But in order to do that, you can't just dump from $92-98. You have to depress the market over a longer timeframe in order to encourage a real demoralization of people's hopes for the future. If you don't demoralize people, there won't be fear, and there won't be capitulation.
Besides, if you can short, you can make a ridiculous fortune on the way down too.
That's why there are bull traps on the way down. If it weren't that way, those bull traps would be bear traps. There is _plenty_ of fiat sitting on Gox waiting for a good time to buy. After all, when $100-110-120-130 were the perpetual price point, whoever managed to buy at $80-85 on the last big sell off made themselves a fortune. So why aren't the market buys coming down, especially when you can pick up 10k BTC for less than one mega?
In my view, that makes the direction we're headed in remarkably clear.
Now am demoralized, are you a whale?
I agree, seeing that wall at 80 holding , the whales said : "No thanks, its too costly"
then how do you explain buy orders that are piling up right now. There is coming to be big battle with big volume i think and that could trigger change of sentiment
2.
Post 2699849 (copy this link) (by bitcryptonit) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.09h):
then how do you explain buy orders that are piling up right now. There is coming to be big battle with big volume i think and that could trigger change of sentiment
You mean the trollwall of 10k thats want you to buy his sells..and gonna disappear soon after.
no i mean few $$$ below current price. When i was looking at this week ago there was like 3k in buy orders now there is 33k (-10k fake wall is still 23k). Thats way more than week ago.
3.
Post 2699925 (copy this link) (by bitcryptonit) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.09h):
trollwall disappeared as quickly as it appeared.
still one have to sell 23k bitcoins so we go back to price that was 2 days ago. People are starting to be nervous about unexpected price rise. I wonder how it will end.
4.
Post 2716818 (copy this link) (by bitcryptonit) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.10h):
I wonder how hard it'll throw down when $90 is broken. It's strange though. The market has proven itself to have considerably more buying power than one would imagine from a dump from $104 to $65 where it sat in the $60s for 2 days.
A purely speculative market.
The biggest problem is the market lacks the natural buying power to move on its own. It needs whales to make real % increase/decreases happen. Though the guy who bought 15k BTC at 80 must be enjoying his $300k right now.
maybe their target is to bring bitcoin below $50 and then buy a lot.
5.
Post 2726954 (copy this link) (by bitcryptonit) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.10h):
4 days and, 75 to 104.
Bull trap , Reversal or Bubble-Bubble. Playing wait and watch.
Prediction: $65 within 14 days.
Although it might sound absurd, i'm sticking with it.
It is a very violent move up and one can argue we broke through resistance. But, the indicators are all overbought, I'd hate to enter now, especially being under 100. (Even 110 ish)
Also, the very large buyers that got us here might want to unload some. As they go, so do we. It all depends on the big money but sooner or later we have to finish the correction (I would think.)
I noticed they are doing exactly the opposite people here think. Nobody was expecting that rise in the price last week. Now everybody expecting a dump but it wont happen. When you start to feel comfortably and buy back at $140 then they will dump.
6.
Post 2728317 (copy this link) (by bitcryptonit) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.10h):
Some kind of triangle happening MAYBE.
I seriously doubt it would break 100 again just to fall down again.
i doubt we will ever be in double digits again. Why? Because i want to sell now. And i am always making wrong decisions ...
7.
Post 2739948 (copy this link) (by bitcryptonit) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.10h):
ATM everything is proceeding as expected.
Big bounce from the 200 day EMA, and then a longish period of "wait and see" (I said that as long as two weeks of sideways trading was expected, just as we had before the fast crash to $66).
Fiat in the order book increasing, coins decreasing. An important milestone will be the shipping of ASIC miners en mass. ATM they are just a few, and they still enjoy good profits. No need to dump all the coins on the market. That will change soon.
maybe you explain why it has to change. If the price of bitcoin is higher then they need to sell less for the same amount of cash. And if the price is rising even asic miners will prefer to wait instead of sell now.
8.
Post 2742087 (copy this link) (by bitcryptonit) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.10h):
problem is, allot of those miners won't get ROI for many months. Knowing this, I would expect most (except for those who took out loans) to choose to wait for higher prices before getting their fiat back.
Exactly, I dont see why on this forums people seem to think that miners want to get ROI as soon as possible. I think 90% of them will just mine and hoard, for years
Well, if the price gets high, it would make sense to sell to lock in profits. But if that's what people were doing, the bubble would not have been quite so crazy.
I'm sure you know the bubble started more or less when block reward halved, which was a moment when nobody had ASICs yet, 99% of the network were GPU and FPGA miners... Those already had their rigs paid off long ago (no new GPU and FPGA miners for a while because everybody was expecting ASICs since last summer), so as soon as they saw their proceeds halved they started to hold like mofos, creating scarcity of coins, which made the price to grow - the growing price attracted speculators, speculators bought driving the price high, the media started to run stories about how Bitcoin price was growing, which attracted more speculators, etc... Wash rinse and repeat, speculative bubble in its purest form.
This cycle is about to invert when ASICs will be widespread. Same thing happened in 2011 with GPUS.
You really think people took loans to buy ASICs? I bet you most asic owners are early adopters from GPU times.
I surely don't know what's the %, but I surely know there are a lot of newcomers spending all their fiat savings (tens of k's of $) in miners because they think they will break even in one month and then they will have a x10 ROI in the first year... Loan or no loan I don't know, but you can be sure they are throwing at this more money they can afford to lose because they think this is a "no brainer" and they do not want to "miss the train".
I know for sure because I've been meeting/discussing with a lot of guys like that since March, both in cyber and meatspace.
There will be a lot of pain for miners very soon, you will see.
that doesnt mean people will start selling bitcoins asap. my mining rig didnt pay for itself and its reason i wont sell them cheap.
9.
Post 2742371 (copy this link) (by bitcryptonit) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.11h):
(...)
This already happened after the 2011 bubble, and I don't see why it won't happen again.
You didn't factor one thing. To this day people who wanted to have bitcoins could just simply mine them or buy graphics card they would use anyway and mine. But now all of the small fishes will have to buy bitcoins because their mining is not profitable. Which means that even if asic miners will sell bitcoins most people will have to buy them to use.
10.
Post 2754479 (copy this link) (by bitcryptonit) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.11h):
Pew pew pew.
don't be so happy, you will miss the bottom again.
11.
Post 2754793 (copy this link) (by bitcryptonit) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.11h):
So gentlemen, what will be the lowest point in this cycle? 55? 50? Lower? Will we touch the 40s?
I'm going to wait and see, but I suspect we will hit lower lows (65 @ bitstamp) than during the last cycle.
if the trend reversed already then it may not be lower than $80
12.
Post 2762882 (copy this link) (by bitcryptonit) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.11h):
Maybe person who panicked and sold his bitcoins yesterday noticed that nothing is going to happen with the price and buying back now.
13.
Post 2766999 (copy this link) (by bitcryptonit) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.11h):
I just got back from vacation,
I drove all the way back from PEI to Montreal, a 12 hour drive + stops ( still feeling hopped up on coffee
)
anyway, i'm back so up Up UP!
Welcome back. Very wise to stay away from the taverns in Lac Megantic
Edit: I am forming a new theory that the 2013 bubble has dissipated and $90-95 is the new medium-term price. Consider that it spent a couple of days there before the peak, during the retrace to 166 and settling now.
Are you saying that it is looking less like 2011 and looking more like 2012?
this is exactly what i think too, especially considering news from 2011 and now. They are completely different not to mention a lot more services. And besides in 2011 no one know what will happen next but now we know there is going to be another bubble sooner or later.
14.
Post 2767526 (copy this link) (by bitcryptonit) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.11h):
With Monthly Moving average and zoomed in.
Still doesn't mean much if people are simply buying, holding and waiting for better price to sell. There is no reason to sell for current prices. I am buying actually more as soon as i can.
15.
Post 2767592 (copy this link) (by bitcryptonit) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.11h):
With Monthly Moving average and zoomed in.
Still doesn't mean much if people are simply buying, holding and waiting for better price to sell. There is no reason to sell for current prices. I am buying actually more as soon as i can.
Why are you guys so sure we ain't going back to 80?
I just see slow dragged sideways trading and uncertainty but my TA still says we're going down.
because you don't know if we are at bear market still or not, to see this you will have to have data few months ahead.
16.
Post 2767704 (copy this link) (by bitcryptonit) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.11h):
Trotter indicator shows 77 than 55 and even 33.
I don't believe we could go that low, but my wallet is prepared in case we do.
What is "Trotter indicator", I have never heared of it? It seems to make amazingly precise predictions because these are exactly the price levels we are going to see.
quit promising cheap coins because it's not going to happen any more.
17.
Post 2770032 (copy this link) (by bitcryptonit) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.11h):
I'm fairly ignorant on this subject, but so are the 99.9% who haven't gotten on board. So the question is, how can we be certain this will really go allot higher. 200-300, maybe for a while, but 1000?...
Just wait when few games pop up (not gambling) who will allow players to earn bitcoins by playing them. And it's only one of many possibilities. Market size is catching up bitcoin price. Until next bubble that is.
Just imagine. One game with 1 million players and an average of 1 btc per player. And its only one game...
18.
Post 2803792 (copy this link) (by bitcryptonit) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.11h):
Transaction time is much faster, and they require no mining, which means that less energy and hardware is used to secure transactions with the Consensus system. I assume there is also no need to store the blockchain on the hard drives of thousands of users. I think it's worth speculating on.
All good points. I would add that sending IOU's is nearly equally as fast as sending XRP. Seconds typically. I also agree that XRP is worth speculating on and do have decent amounts of XRP. Although I believe the risk is worth the reward, I am very aware that the odds of XRP increasing significantly in value, are not on the side of the speculator.
@MAbtc -
Some very fair points although holding "debt" from gateways is the exact same thing as having BTC or USD in Gox or Stamp. No difference whatsoever. In fact, isn't it the Gox USD IOU's that are causing all this mess?
@WonkyTonky...+1 for arbitrage.
since you have problems with understanding what others are saying to you (to get lost with that scam from that thread) welcome to my ignore list. I hope others will follow and moderator will remove this.
19.
Post 2812997 (copy this link) (by bitcryptonit) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.12h):
i think those sell walls are from people who bought cheaper at other exchanges to profit on gox. They wont sell this cheap because they will lose money and they will have money at gox which is even worse. I wouldn't do that and i hope they are smart enough to don't do this either.
20.
Post 2939424 (copy this link) (by bitcryptonit) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.13h):
nevermind, resolved it myself, some weird shit going on
in other news, looks like some small fish are doing some arbitrage
good, let his money rest at gox forever.
me thinks that if someone would want to accumulate bitcoins he would wait for the price to drop like it was doing some time ago. and then buy cheap.
21.
Post 2949915 (copy this link) (by bitcryptonit) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.13h):
Great for hoarded coins, but not so good for those trying to get in.
they had plenty of time to get in.
22.
Post 3016608 (copy this link) (by bitcryptonit) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.14h):
What just happened?
Someone heard some good news before we did? At least i hope that's the case.
Probably good gox news that's not public yet....
If it's Gox news I would rather guess it's bad news.
Maybe, but there was a big meeting with the US government yesterday. Maybe something positive came out of it.
I don't understand why the Bitcoin Foundation is being silent on this. Seriously, can't one of them just tweet "meeting good", anything? Very frustrating, and frankly insulting.
maybe they are buying those bitcoins now before they tell...
23.
Post 3017134 (copy this link) (by bitcryptonit) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.14h):
soon there might be no bitcoins for sale
24.
Post 3017850 (copy this link) (by bitcryptonit) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.14h):
soon there might be no bitcoins for sale
ive seen that before.. and thats when the bubble crashed
now is slightly different situation, people don't fear bubbles any more because they cant kill bitcoin and price will recover anyway. there will be volatility but me thinks we are going up faster and faster.
25.
Post 3374250 (copy this link) (by bitcryptonit) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.18h):
I don't know if you were thinking about this but lets assume that governments are really going to cut 10% out of everyone account money. Then what will probably happen, when they will do this with mtgox accounts? Are they going to cut your money stored there too?
26.
Post 3397223 (copy this link) (by bitcryptonit) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.18h):
PSA: A correction now, even a big temporary sell-off, would be totally normal.
That's not saying we'll get one, but don't panic if it happens. The "DON'T PANIC" posts during a mini-crash may fall on deaf ears because they look desperate. They aren't; it is a fact that markets don't move in straight lines. Don't be a weak hand. Besides being generally cowardly, it is very expensive to your financial wellbeing.
We now return to our regularly scheduled rally
less than 20000 btc left on gox... where is that sell of gonna come from...
Indeed. It's possible, even somewhat likely, that Second Market soaked up all the coins weeks ago and we're now feeling the coin drought. Add that to the China tinderbox and BOOM. I expect continued rally, I just want to preemptively warn people that corrections are normal and healthy, sky isn't falling if the price dives one day, etc.
I wonder how recent 266 bubble affected people. Are they now not scared by bubbles any more and even if someone will dump lets say 100k bitcoins at once we will recover really fast? I'm not going to do anything when price will drop hard. Maybe will buy some more if i will have cash ready. But what others will do.
27.
Post 3397286 (copy this link) (by bitcryptonit) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.18h):
The Chinese speculators collectively dump 100k. It turns to a full on market panic where 500k are dumped.
the trick is to learn lesson from April and don't panic