If you are offered to swap as often as you want, with your new envelope randomly holding double or half the money of the one before, then you should swap endlessly often (lets say: as often as feasable).
After all of your swaps, the chance that you get more than 100$ from your envelope is almost 50%, the chance that you get less than 100$ is also almost 50% (and a small chance that you hold exactly 100$).
However, if you get more than 100$ in your envelope, you get at LEAST 200$, but possibly much more. If you get less than 100$, you will still never get less than 0$.
Every swap will increase your expected return (too lazy to research the exact equation though).

 

there was just a single sell of 650BTC that obliterated the wall at 122  

bitcoinity is working fine here.

Something might just start to be happening. The walls around 121 are starting to get eaten for the first time (200BTC at 121.39 in the last minute)

that wouldn't be me much of a price move  
But it depends on trading volume, which is still too low for that. There are still 440BTC sitting at 121.33 and 2930 to get to 120.97.
It would need a lot more volume to destroy those walls.
Just thought it interesting that they even get attacked at all, at that volume, looking how massive they are...

Right now I am waiting for bitstamp to go down, which is sitting at 117.4/118.2 (Bid/Ask), which is very high in comparison to the average offset to mt.gox of the last days.

Yes, I think so. Due to the fact that the bidwall on Mt.Gox is now at 122, bitstamp is a bit too low.
Now the bids on bitstamp are at 118.35, and asks at 118.39 -> walls should start to get nibbled.
"Movement" is very relative though, looking that moving the walls up by 1$ would take about 1500BTC...

Edit: I am really curious though: What would happen on bitstamp if mt.gox started to rise significantly, say to 125 (or, make that 135)? There just ISN'T enough fiat on bitstamp to buy up the walls...

I think mt.gox may be starting to move - at least we are seeing new 24 hour highs (123.6)... (though, to be fair, we saw them at 9:00 as well, and then stalled again)
Wall nibbles, anyway (500BTC to 124).

The biggest move of the day is still the bid wall movement from 121 to 122. Which says a lot about how little is happening here...

a 1000BTC ASK wall just appeared at 123 on mt.gox  

If it does not get pulled it is enough to reverse our current slow upward creep...

Probably someone who wants to drive the price down to be able to buy cheaper.

it appears to be well coordinated too: just now on bitstamp a 500BTC ask wall appeared at 118.35

I am curious how much movement this will generate...

I'll wager a prediction: if the price does move down, those two walls will follow.

Then again, I can't image how they expect to get much movement at current volume, with 2000BTC needed just to get below 122BTC on mt.gox. 

yep, 660BTC just got bought. That probably wasn't the intent of whomever put that wall there... 

Well, I have just (20 Minutes ago) sold my BTC on bitstamp at 118.97, looking how its a high for bitstamp in the last days, and mt.gox is relatively low (119 to 122.5 is a price difference of only 3.5).

Time will tell me (quite shortly) whether it was wise, as I can rebuy cheaper, or dumb because I have to buy in again at the same price.
The good thing is that the price can't really run away (since there are endlessly many sell offers before it reaches 120).  

I just don't see bitstamp rising much higher at the moment, not even to 120.
The problem bitstamp has is that while it is rising (as you described), mt.gox is falling (ever since that 1000BTC ask wall appeared, there has been downward pressure). And while bitstamp has been getting stronger - they are sustaining about the same volume as mt.gox at the moment - they still can't defy mt.gox price leadership endlessly. Not when there is a huge mountain of BTC to buy up at the same time...

Hey, if you can reliably rebuy at 1.5 below what you sold, making 1$/BTC profit, you can raise the number of bitcoins you own. Whats wrong with that?  

Of course, the catch word is "reliably" - if you have to rebuy higher half of the time, the strategy isn't working.  

There is lots of buying pressure, right. But it can't move the price, and at some point the buyers are out of fiat. Then its the turn of the sellers again (just the nature of every exchange ever ), which will move the price (simply because the ask walls are way weaker). This equation only changes if mt.gox rises significantly, amplifying the buying pressure.


from 123.5 to 122.5. So "falling" is really saying too much. But yes, there is downward pressure. The price just can't really fall because of the bid walls, same as bitstamp can't rise because of ask walls (though to be fair, there is much more fiat on mt.gox, so movement is easier there then on bitstamp a.t.m.).

By the way, did anyone notice that in the last days we often had bitstamp and mt.gox pulling in different directions? Like right now mt.gox is pulling down while bitstamp is pulling up? Wonder when for the first time bitstamp will win and mt.gox follows...  

Whooho!

Was afk for a while, and coming back see that most of my buy order at 117.11 got filled  

Definitely of topic for this thread, but that was just too cool. *veryhappy*

Yeah, it was pure luck. And completely crazy that such a big sell stops precisely at my bid (it did not fill it completely, just mostly).

I do too. But looking as I was not even hoping for anything like that, it was cool enough as it was.
It definitely was a nice surprise on coming back.  

Back to the topic of walls: 123.0 ask wall on mt.gox just getting eaten up. No more real walls to 124 then, lots of smaller orders though.

123 ask wall broken through (with a 250BTC buy). That was fast...

I get "Website currently unavailable", and the API doesn't respond either.
So I'd say yes, bitstamp is currently down.

Oh well, not like there was much happening anyway... 

We are also just getting the answer to a question I posted yesterday: What happens on bitstamp if mtgox rises to 125?

Answer: The price is stuck at the slope (currently at 119.79), which gets eaten, but way way slower then the price on mt.gox rises -> spread is growing. And no way to day trade, obviously...
Arbitragers, where are you when we need you?

I'm all in as well, what else you gonna do during a slow steady rise...

yes, the order book on bitstamp is already looking way healthier: new bids are appearing, and asks are slowly but steadily getting munched up. It's just taking some time. 

That is always true, even at much higher volumes. The lower volume is because mt.gox is losing its dominance and fiat from mt.gox takes a long time to appear on other exchanges, so they can't take up the slack yet.

I think it is a very encouraging sign that we are apparently managing the shift in exchange importance without any major crashes. After all, BTC move much faster, and could easily crash the price to lower levels. Luckily the mt.gox price still has too much credibility for that. 

bitstamp: everything short of the 120.0BTC wall just got bought up (wall is 350BTC).

Yes, there are still huge ask walls on bitstamp, but they got reduced by something like 2000BTC in the last 24hours. So there is definitely a lot of fiat pouring in. It just isn't sitting in the order book (which would be extremely stupid anyway, looking as how it can be used to buy cheap coins instead   ).

And I am watching bitstamp on bitcoinity: those walls aren't being retracted - they really are being bought!

And "tiny" is the wrong adjective at least for bitstamp: It is handling around 25% of all BTC trading volume by now.

Right. Which is what I am saying. 

120.0BTC ask wall on bitstamp bought up.

I think since we broke through the mt.gox wall at 124.5 (tonight around 4:00 UTC) we can call this an upward trend instead of just jitter.  

EDIT: 126.0BTC wall on mt.gox getting eaten fast (400BTC eaten so far)!

look at the changes in asks and bids: lots of asks pulled, and lots of new bids inserted.

though I've also got a question: what is up with green downward bars on the bid side? 

While the relly at mt.gox is taking a small breather, at bitstamp BTC continue to be bought up.
Ask wall at 120.5$ just got broken through. And isn't it crazy that the ticker for the last 2 1/2 hours on bitstamp looks like a moving average? There aren't any downticks at all.  

Edit: pic as proof:

There was just an interesting ask wall of 130BTC at 122.75 on bitstamp. It did not last long...
But interesting because it gave me the chance to rebuy the coins I foolishly sold at 123.0 yesterday. Still a small loss after fees, but almost nothing.  

I am all in again  

420BTC bid wall at 123.5 at bitstamp.

Damn that was close  

Edit: wall moved up to 124.0 (and shrunk to 390BTC)

bitstamp:
Wall got bought up (well, 356BTC out of 400BTC anyway, so its not a wall anymore).
Would not have thought that would happen so fast, with all the buying pressure...

believe me, 400BTC counts as a (small) wall on bitstamp...  

200BTC is a miniwall, 1000BTC is a really big one 

He did move the wall up from 123.5 to 124.0, with the bid wall standing at 124.15. So I guess it was a fair offer and both buyer and seller can be happy about a deal well struck.  

I am seeing a very interesting technique being used on bitstamp right now:

Instead of placing a huge ask wall, someone is setting down ~40BTC orders spaced 0.01 apart. But only a few at once, and filling them up as they get eaten.
This means that the upward trend does not get broken, it just slows down to a crawl. And the person gets to sell all of his BTC at high prices, because the confidence of the buyers is unshaken.

Pretty slick operator, if you ask me...

I don't think the bots on our exchanges are that sophisticated yet...

But you are right, there are still obvious ways to improve on it: don't place as many orders in advance, and vary the spacing, timing and amount more, to make it look disconnected.

Still, it is working, and he is doing it at the right point of time, so he is slick enough.  

Edit: here you can see him placing new sell orders:

Looking at the buy pressure on both bitstamp and mt.gox - not enough for me to follow his lead, not even short term.

And yes, ask wall at 128.0$ on mt.gox just got eaten! (850BTC)

bitstamp:
Sliding ask wall at 124.57$ broken through! (It started around 124.40$, ended at 124.57$, and varied in height but was up to 1000BTC tall, and if I count restockings, I'd guess between 1500BTC and 2000BTC overall.)

1200BTC to reach 126$, which means that the spread between bitstamp and mt.gox is growing again, bitcoins can't be bought up fast enough.

wall report:
mt.gox: 129.0$ getting eaten fast (400BTC so far)
bitstamp: 330BTC bid wall at 124.72$ just appeared. No interest in touching it, just buys eating away at the ask walls.

bitstamp is really racing today: broken through 125$ (no real walls, but about 500BTC in orders). 670BTC left to 126!

The ask wall at 127.72$ simply got pulled again because nobody bought and price moved away. Completely senseless, why not just buy into the walls if you are placing it that close to them? 

Yeah, sorry, typo. Meant bid wall of course.  

bitstamp running along: now up to 126.2$!

I would say we have definitely entered panic buying mode. 

What was that about a stability period? 

First 500BTC from the wall at 130 already gone.

And so what if there is a hard rebound? It just means that if you play your cards right, you can profit more than once  . After all, how can you increase the number of bitcoins you hold if price never falls? Ok, you can always invest more fiat, but even that gets harder the more expensive the coins are...

I would normally have tried to exploit the 130 wall to catch the price correction for a nice small profit. The problem was that I had no idea what the price was supposed to be on bitstamp (since it was still catching up from a 5$ offset), and no walls around either to help. So I let it pass.

Appears that currently bitstamp is trading at an 1.5-2$ offset.

I don't think the action is over for today. mt.gox appears just about ready to retest 130 again (and will most likely fail once more - still about 5000BTC there).

Well, took a bit longer then expected, but we are back at 130!

unfortunately, bitstamp is lagging behind, so all I can do is watch from the sidelines  

Edit: Wall at 130 just got reduced by 600BTC!

Eh, I was half right at least. I will take what I can get.

It's great to be able to watch this live if you were already all in before it started.  

bitstamp is still working beautifully.

But Mt.Gox just proved that it still is most definitely the price leader - all the other exchanges, including bitstamp, are just following, and lagging behind while doing so. Mt.Gox is back to having up to 10 times the volume than bitstamp a.t.m.

?

Link, explanation, anything? 

mt.gox:
800BTC bid wall at 130.5, we were almost back to 132. I think it's gathering steam once more.

bitstamp:
still lagging behind short of 128

I don't want to end up with fiat on mt.gox that takes me a month to get out. Besides, often enough bitstamps lagging has kept me from making hasty trades, forcing me to ride out an upswing. Think of it as enforced trading discipline  

Besides, fees at bitstamp are about half of mt.gox, and the whole enterprise seems to be run way more professionally. There is a reason both fiat and bitcoin at mt.gox are going down (I think of the Dwolla issue more as a catalyst to get that shift moving).

Hey, while I wasn't looking bitstamp punched through its resistance and is reaching new daily heights!

Cool  

Pah, I am still wating for the "panic selling". bitstamp seems hardly to have noticed that mt.gox is not charging ahead anymore...

bitstamp:
Mini ask wall (240BTC) at 129.39
significant, because this is the first thing to move the price on bitstamp down from the daily high of 129.9

bitstamp sometimes really does require patience, more so than mt.gox...

bitstamp: ask wall (barely shrunken to 230BTC) moved down to 128.75
mt.gox: looks like we will fall below 131

Still waiting for my chance to buy back in. Nobody trading on bitstamp atm. 

And I'd like to avoid buying back in at 127.7 if I can help it. 

Oh well, price was starting to run away.
Bought back in at 128, +0.5%BTC - could have gone better, but could have gone worse too  

I am all in again. (okay, that is my default stanze  )

Maybe I'll see a chance to do another sell/buy cycle - price at bitstamp is up to 129  

But I'll watch mt.gox closely first, whether the rally really won't continue for now.
Don't want to be in fiat if it does  

If it goes up to 130 without mt.gox starting to rise equivalently, I'll definitely resell...

bitstamp:
that was very satisfying: an 400BTC ask wall appeared at 128.7. Put my bitcoins in front of it. After a bit of leapfrogging, most of my bitcoins were sold, when the wall moved a whole point down!
Rebought my bitcoins minutes later at 126.5  

I am long term bullish, and so try to stay in bitcoins. But whenever I see a chance to increase my bitcoin holdings by selling/rebuying, I'll do so. Otherwise, there would be little point in watching the charts and walls, now would there?  

I believe in the effects of compound interest

Please party on without me.  

I'm finished trading for the day. It's after midnight here, and it was quite a headache to get in once mt.gox started creeping upwards again (was 1/3 in fiat) since bitstamp reacted really fast this time around.

Luckily a 400BTC bidwall appeared, which is still creeping downward. At 128.1 I couldn't resist anymore and bought in again.  

I beg to differ on that: The internet is the greatest social experiment the world has ever known. Even bitcoin has been born from it! 

420BTC bid wall at 133.3 got bought. Seeing as we are still at weekend volumes, I'd guess that is enough to stop the upward movement for the moment. It got me to lower my buy order anyway 

regarding bitstamp: yes, it is waiting on gox. It was very close in price before the upward swing, and in recent times, 4 or 5 points spread really isn't all that much. Looking how bitstamp has quite a wall in front of it (3000BTC to 131), it takes a bit of incentive to really drive buys up.

new 500BTC bid wall appeared at 133.68 (well, miniwall really, but it is the weekend  )

Edit: only a 400BTC wall now, and pulled back to 133.0

Edit2: everything up to 134 just got bought up, a few hundred BTC worth of buys. New height.

mt.gox is up to 135, volume is rising. It appears we are entering rally mode again.
bitstamp is still asleep (129.5)

Decided to buy into the walls to get in again, the spread between bitstamp and mt.gox is getting too high.
(bought in 0.5$ higher than I sold 18 hours earlier, but it was definitely time for my exit strategy!  )

nope, just 1k

Edit: 

Yes, it is still 1k. But if people are really waking up again, that 1k won't last long. Get your cheap coins while you still can.  

bitstamp at least is agreeing with me, and slowly but steadily rising. Waiting there will likely make buyin just more expensive.

I am watching bitcoinity

Edit: I think I see: You are talking about to 135, ShroomsKit and I are talking about breakthrough

Alright, I am away for a few hours. mt.gox is asleep again, bitstamp constantly buying up coins.
Curious what I will see when I get back.  

I am predicting a new attempt at 135 on mt.gox shortly 

depends on movement on mt.gox. If price stays more or less the same, then yes, it will take a while. But as soon as it is established above 136 (bid wall above 136), volume on bitstamp will rocket up and those walls will go down very fast indeed. 

Pah, typical. Half an hour before I have time for trading comes the big price move 
Lets see whether staff will still happen now that I am watching for it...

up we go 

I am reasonably certain that this action did not create a downward trend. Indeed it may have even stopped one from forming - especially if the person responsable contributes by buying up cheap coins (lets call it "dump and pump"?)  

Ha! Sold my bitcoins at 126.99 (bitstamp). Now I just mustn't miss the dip... 

Nice to see I called it right to sell at 127 (bitstamp)  
Now if I just knew how low it goes...  

Btw.: I decided based on technical analyses as well. It was telling me we were and are in a downward trend.
What it (obviously) can't tell me is when the trend will break.  

What is up with the bitstamp feed at bitcoinity though? It's dead for me, while the one for mt.gox is working fine  

Edit: Wow, that was quite a buy! about 2kBTC upwards in one go, right through 128!

The movement is undecided, which means we are still in a downward trend.
The 2kBTC buy is enough to make us go up in the short term (which means I rebought at 125[bitstamp]  ), but whether it will be enough to start a trend reversal? No idea what so ever...

Which made me very sceptical about how bullish bitstamp actually is - too much selling pressure in the form of orders. Looking how close bitstamp and mt.gox are, it made me sell this morning at 127.13 (bitstamp). Was then obviously unhappy that the price continued to creep upwards (both mt.gox and bitstamp), but right now mt.gox does seem to get downward pressure, and bitstamp is following. 

Oh, as always all I am hoping is to buy back in a bit cheaper...  

Its looking good right now 

pah, should have bought in at 126.13, but was too choosy. Took 127.0 instead, thus still paying .5 more than necessary. Damn reflexes!

Oh well - up we go!

on bitstamp a wall just bought up to 115. 
And I don't have any BTC to sell 

Hey, mtgox just went lower than bitstamp (83.4 to 83.6).  
That hasn't happened since mtgox stopped withdrawals!

I guess that means that mtgox is price leader once more, and we can expect bitstamp to continue to fall once mtgox stops. (very simplified view, of course  )

just a status update: mtgox is breaking through the about 1k BTC bid wall at 82 right now. (bitstamp is trailing behind)

Increasing the number of your bitcoins? 

Mtgox just about has to. Bitstamp should fall quite a bit, though (I cant't see any reason why it should stay higher or even very close to mtgox).

Edit: Then again, the big sells on mtgox still don't appear to be stopping.  (just saw 500BTC sold at 82.00)

I know. Why do you think bitstamp is trading higher than mtgox at the first place!? 
So I am doing the same as you - waiting for a nice big dump of at least 1000BTC before even thinking about trying to catch a bounce...  

That should be the end of the panic selling for now. Rebound coming up... (I hope  )

Edit: Pretty sure by now, definitely a rebound 

I caught the bottom perfectly this time around - my offer got bought at 75.17 (bitstamp, lowest was 75.11).
Now to watch how it develops. Ready to sell again on very short notice...

Even a bitcoin crash is not a straight downward movement. We had a retrace from 82 to 89 just a day ago (bitstamp). Didn't keep the price to crashing down again afterwards, but if you see a chance to catch that upward movement, why not take it?  

1500BTC ask wall at 70 on bitstamp. Bitstamp is leading the down move. mtgox won't have any option but to follow behind.

This will go lower on both exchanges, and fast...

I'd say we are starting to see the predicted violent fall...

The satoshi dice selloff has started.
And for the first time in quite a few days, mtgox is finally following the downward trend set by bitstamp...

What's that got to do with anything?
There are enough people around who can anticipate the effect this will have and are frontrunning.

I was already all in fiat anyway, but the first thing I did upon seeing the news was pulling my bid (it would have been filled by now otherwise).

I am convinced that the BTCs sold by satoshi dice shareholders will crash the market pretty severely. And so are alot of other people. It becomes a self fulfilling prophesy at that point...

right now a selloff on bitstamp is drawing mtgox down. The position at 143.6 is being sold of peacemeal (and slowly, there still isn't any volume on gox).

Volume on bitstamp is much higher than on gox right now  .

NOW mtgox has woken up too (finally). Down we go...

Boy am I mighty glad by now that I spotted bitstamp going down today (even posted so in this thread). At that point I sold on mtgox for 143.6$. It's been crashing downwards ever since.