All posts made by ranlo in Bitcointalk.org's Wall Observer thread



1. Post 7009718 (copy this link) (by ranlo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.48h):

Quote from: molecular on May 29, 2014, 07:35:12 AM
I present the Matroska Cup & Handle pattern:



$1000 bitcoin party around October... see you there Wink

EDIT: which, by the way, has worked before very well:

can there be a cup & handle inside a cup & handle ?



This is a pretty interesting pattern. So you're speculating at this point that we still won't reach our previous ATH this year?



2. Post 7009986 (copy this link) (by ranlo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.48h):

Quote from: AceWallen on May 29, 2014, 08:19:18 AM
This is a pretty interesting pattern. So you're speculating at this point that we still won't reach our previous ATH this year?
did you notice the last leg? the one that goes up and off the chart and past $1200? (this is a bitstamp chart) i think he's trying to say that we're going to the moon! Grin

I wish! I'm just a bit lost as to how if we're repeating a pattern that already happened, we still wouldn't reach the ATH (we can exclude the parts of his chart that are off to the right).



3. Post 7017801 (copy this link) (by ranlo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.48h):

Quote from: exocytosis on May 29, 2014, 04:37:32 PM
I'm selling my coins today. Will buy them back when we hit sub-400 prices in a couple of weeks or so.

I don't see this being the likely event. If anything, we'll drop back down to 500. Going to even 450 is unlikely, but lower than 400? That's a stretch. There's just too much positive news now.



4. Post 10707338 (copy this link) (by ranlo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.03h):

Quote from: Morecoin Freeman on March 09, 2015, 01:30:36 AM
Mmm I have a positive outlook on bitcoin but my interpretation right now is that demand is stalling.
This is nothing like last summer's rally from $420 to $680.

For now I think we will not go past $300 for quite some time. But hey this is bitcoin so anything could happen still...

300 is going to be heavy resistance. Then 350, 400, 450...

I think we might have heavy resistance on a smaller scale as well (think 325, 350, 375...).

As of now, I think we've got a while before we hit 300 though, other than a quick spike here or there.



5. Post 11050615 (copy this link) (by ranlo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.10h):

Quote from: Xiaoxiao on April 11, 2015, 03:52:33 AM
This thing is taking a fall into the abyss either tonight or in 4-5 days.  This is what happens when new money stops liking bitcoin as a speculative tool.

I disagree. I think we're going to stay around the 200-270 range until the end of the year. Maybe longer. There's so much in the works right now to help support the economy. It's going to be interesting seeing how things pan out in 2016+



6. Post 12283803 (copy this link) (by ranlo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.25h):

Quote from: cyclotronmajesty on August 30, 2015, 04:52:38 PM
YAY it's crashing and my long is still open. Thank god it's almost over.  Grin

if you are long, you want them to go up, right?

Nah I've already decided crypto is a shit investment. Maybe long term holding works for some but if you want a day trading experience it's expensive.

I'm not going to pull my money out though. I'd feel shame.
I will give it every chance it to redeem itself. But I'm just ready for it to end. I want it to either die hard or give me my money back ASAP. I will continue to try to "make money" fight the good fight. But really i'm tired of this game. It just looks like a ponzi scheme to me. But before I was playing computer games, at least now i've gotten a new hobby to kill time.

FYI I'm actually invested in Litecoin, I was making it not so bad back with bitcoin, and would have maybe broke even in fact, but I saw litecoin as a shortcut when it went up 4 dollars in a month.

Now Litecoin does exactly what Bitcoin does, & is not going up like it used to. That litecoin boom was and still IS a ponzi scheme. Litecoin is the shitcoin. Don't fuck with it.

But i'm a fighter so It's all or nothing for me. I'll gladly take nothing if only to move on with my life & stop wasting time circling my pathetic investment. lol.

The value to me is having learned quite a bit about economics.
Not everything, but allot more that I used to know. So i've gotten a good education, and I know the cryptocurrency thing is a dud, unless perhaps you're an experienced trader and know the market very well. There is quite a bit to learn and it's a 24/7 job.

Some Chinese turds have my money and they control the market. Chinese are the most devious people on earth. They are cunning. I live in China now, it's a "me first" greed fest from what I can tell, but then my Chinese isn't so good. Otherwise they are not such bad people. But they want money and authority with a passion, it's a nationalistic thing and unconscious passion just like everyone else.

Unless I can somehow reverse this death spiral, and which I will try, but highly doubt, I consider crypto a no-go, unless using it perhaps to transfer money in very tight periods of time.

BUT It's simply not a good investment from a layman's perspective, because it's expensive and complicated to buy, you have to go through 2 or 3 middlemen just to get it, then 2 or 3 middlemen to use it. It also depreciates allot more than it appreciates. If for example I asked my boss to pay me in bitcoin i'd be in bigger straits than with fiat.

It's just a stupid game / experiment to me. I'd never put in money I actually need to survive in this ridiculous ponzi scheme.

But I liked the idea of Bitcoin. But I kinda agree with Snowden. It's obviously flawed.

Death can be a relief. So either way i'm happy.

I await my margin call...  Grin

If you're day-trading, it's not Bitcoin itself you should be dealing with (unless you're arbing it). You deal with altcoins and build your Bitcoin holding over time by doing that. Much more lucrative, and you can take less risky maneuvers with it.



7. Post 12412684 (copy this link) (by ranlo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.26h):

Quote from: Norway on September 13, 2015, 11:21:53 PM
I think that there has been quite a lot of action in the past 24 hours or so in order to attempt to get the weekly candle to be red, rather than green.  It seems that there is only about 40 minutes left to determine whether this week's candle is going to be red or green...

Currently, the weekly candle is on the cusp of either way... but seems to be trending more towards the red...
Don't worry about the weekly candle. Bitcoin is going to scale, and make you filthy rich in time Wink

Or be replaced by another coin. Keep in mind that while Bitcoin is highly revered right now, anything that supports it can just as easily support any other blockchain-based currency with very minor changes.



8. Post 12478036 (copy this link) (by ranlo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.26h):

Quote from: nioc on September 21, 2015, 12:39:45 AM
Ok guyz!

What should be my target for the oct-jan bull run?

$1800 or $2500?

Just remove a zero from each number and you won't be disappointed.

I think everyone needs to think very carefully before making assumptions about continued lacklustre price movement. When bitcoin went from ~$25 to more than ~250 within a couple of months leading up to April 2013 many would have thought they would never see anything like that again. Those who sold out and didn't buy back in again when it went back below $100 would have been kicking themselves when the big boom happened that following November. Well we're in the same situation right now. If things start seriously unravelling with fiat (and indications are that this is going to happen; it's only a matter of when) there will be a race into PMs and crypto. It's entirely likely we could see another run up that will make the ~$1200 from Nov 2013 look like the $250 from April 2013 (i.e if it follows a typical logarithmic trajectory, a $10,000 ATH is not out of the question).

Bottom line: I would be very careful jumping in and out of BTC at the moment as it could suddenly take off and will catch many out.


I have very close to my ATH of holdings of crypto currencies and trying to buy back what I was recently forced to sell. 

I believe at some point the usage and price will go up.

I just have no expectation when that will happen.  I don't even listen to the weather forecast.

The issue here is that usage doesn't relate to price at all. Most services that come out are all about going from cash -> BTC -> cash quickly, which negates the usage factor altogether. We need more to adopt BTC as a method of transacting, without continuing the dilution via liquidation.



9. Post 12478092 (copy this link) (by ranlo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.26h):

Quote from: criptix on September 21, 2015, 01:54:45 AM
Ok guyz!

What should be my target for the oct-jan bull run?

$1800 or $2500?

Just remove a zero from each number and you won't be disappointed.

I think everyone needs to think very carefully before making assumptions about continued lacklustre price movement. When bitcoin went from ~$25 to more than ~250 within a couple of months leading up to April 2013 many would have thought they would never see anything like that again. Those who sold out and didn't buy back in again when it went back below $100 would have been kicking themselves when the big boom happened that following November. Well we're in the same situation right now. If things start seriously unravelling with fiat (and indications are that this is going to happen; it's only a matter of when) there will be a race into PMs and crypto. It's entirely likely we could see another run up that will make the ~$1200 from Nov 2013 look like the $250 from April 2013 (i.e if it follows a typical logarithmic trajectory, a $10,000 ATH is not out of the question).

Bottom line: I would be very careful jumping in and out of BTC at the moment as it could suddenly take off and will catch many out.


I have very close to my ATH of holdings of crypto currencies and trying to buy back what I was recently forced to sell. 

I believe at some point the usage and price will go up.

I just have no expectation when that will happen.  I don't even listen to the weather forecast.

The issue here is that usage doesn't relate to price at all. Most services that come out are all about going from cash -> BTC -> cash quickly, which negates the usage factor altogether. We need more to adopt BTC as a method of transacting, without continuing the dilution via liquidation.

this is wrong.

if usage goes up demand for btc will go up.
supply will not inrease therefore price has to inrease.

if price is stable it just means demand and supply are in a equilibrium.

Usage only matters if people are holding. Take this, for example:

We have 100 BTC. There are 100 people interested. All 100 are buying and instantly selling their BTC.
1000 more people get interested. The market is constantly buying and selling, so they jump in as well.

This has no effect. If people HODL, this will change things. But that's just as easy to do with 1k people as it is with 1m.



10. Post 12716825 (copy this link) (by ranlo) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.28h):

Quote from: Patel on October 18, 2015, 05:47:05 AM
Price seems to be going downhill, what do you guys think? Can it remain stable at 265, or will it go entirely down to 230 because of a huge pump and dump?

I think $245 is the number to watch, then uptrend again.

Think there's a chance to hit and stabilize at $300 this year? Over a month left, and tons of positive news lately. It's going to be interesting to watch.