All posts made by KS in Bitcointalk.org's Wall Observer thread
1.
Post 2200276 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_10.59h):
For what it's worth, since I've been lurking this thread for a few tens of pages (hundreds?), I like Chart Buddy's 3D representation as it shows the evolution of the wall over time and not just the last point in time snapshot.
It needs getting used to the first few times, but readability isn't bad.
And sometimes its comments are just better than the rest...
2.
Post 2307857 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.01h):
up up up!
edit: WTF *is* that??
3.
Post 2319523 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.01h):
Today's or short term outlook?
I hope that we will see 137-140 in 1-3 days ...
(but the next day it's the weekend, so I do not know)
For the last few weekends, the weekend dip has been reversed. Price rises on the weekend and, if anything, dips quite a bit on Monday, Tuesday and even Wednesday, before starting to climb again.
pros off on break and weekend traders on the rise.
if the pros leave the boat...
4.
Post 2323510 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.01h):
I'm the only feeling bad for the poor bear hit by the car?
only ruthless sharks in the exchanges
5.
Post 2327790 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.01h):
I don't think there is really much room or momentum for a downward trend, we're looking oversold right now and if you look at the bid sum/ask sum ratio it's still quite a bit higher than the current price. So that means there is still an overabundance of fiat sitting on the orderbook, even though overall both fiat and btc have been leaving the book lately.
Yes - but where is it going? Surely not to Bitstamp, even if wishful thinking could lead us to believe that. Some coins went indeed from Gox to Bitstamp (but still a small amount compared to the amount that vanished from Gox's order book), but the fiat is nowhere to be seen.
I know is slower to move fiat - but anyhow this "draining" process started aprox. 15 days ago. If fiat was stampeding to Bitstamp we would have seen it, and the numbers just don't add up.
So... Scared bears with pockets full of fiat, willing to cash out profits for good? It's true there is not much moment (not upwards, not downwards), but cheaper coins are expected unless some whales hop on the train - which can always happen, Bitcoin market is so ridiculously tiny that just a couple of 7 figures players can change the trend in the blink of an eye.
Not on Gox´s order book doesnt mean neccessary not on Gox or?
Of course there is fiat on Gox which is not on the order book, but the quantity in the order book is nevertheless related with the total amount sitting on Gox. You can speculate about what is the order book/non order book ratio, but you can be sure it's a pretty consistent proportion when you take out of the equation big short-term moves where people just pull their bids so they are not eaten by the bears.
You know... Having big quantities of money on Gox for long periods without ever placing it on the order book it's just pointless.
I would imagine the amount of fiat increased because of the bubble, media exposure and trading opportunities.
Since it's been going sideways for a while, I'd imagine the fiat is going to greener pastures.
6.
Post 2339027 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.01h):
Just another question.
Why is the wall not on every currency at bitcoinity?
It's on every currency but its "height" depends on relative volume, thus you may see it much smaller in some currencies.
For the two currencies with bigger volume (USD and EUR) you will usually see the walls with pretty much the same proportion.
Thank you very much.
Now I understand it.
The volumes are the same but the walls are not exactly at the same place because of exchange rate variations and other fees so they don't line up exactly and you see more miniwalls than the one big wall in USD.
If you try and buy, say 10K BTC, the price should be the same in the various currencies when you factor in said fees. Just play with bitcoinity and try and get to the same amount of coins, you should see an amount in fiat within 1or 2%.
7.
Post 2339437 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.01h):
So... this also means that the walls are bigger than they look?
As in, if the charts say a wall has 1k BTC, and USD was say 50% of the total Gox volume, then the actual wall size is 2k BTC?
No. A 2k฿ order appears as 2k฿ in every market. It just might *look* smaller or bigger because of different zoom factor and the other orders surrounding it when looking at the different charts. Just look at the naked numbers of BTC order size, the orders are identical everywhere.
+1 on the book orders.
The graphs are not perfect, so look for the raw data. You don't really need the graphs...
8.
Post 2340461 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.01h):
Actually, the FAQ contradicts itself. Based on the answer to this question...
Q. Are there any other fees charged when trading in multi-currency?
A. No. However, please be advised that there is a 2.5% premium when a trade involves orders in different currencies. However, this is not a separate charge. It is already reflected in the price you see.
Based on that it looks like there are indeed separate order books, but that all trades are reflected on other currency book (minus a 2.5% currency commission - which quite frankly kills the competitiveness of the order). So the moral of the story is that it's best to trade on the busiest currency. If you trade in Thai Bhat, don't expect to get your orders filled.
Bank fees.
9.
Post 2340649 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.01h):
Actually, the FAQ contradicts itself. Based on the answer to this question...
Q. Are there any other fees charged when trading in multi-currency?
A. No. However, please be advised that there is a 2.5% premium when a trade involves orders in different currencies. However, this is not a separate charge. It is already reflected in the price you see.
Based on that it looks like there are indeed separate order books, but that all trades are reflected on other currency book (minus a 2.5% currency commission - which quite frankly kills the competitiveness of the order). So the moral of the story is that it's best to trade on the busiest currency. If you trade in Thai Bhat, don't expect to get your orders filled.
Bank fees.
That's way too high for a bank fee transaction, especially since MtGox is not actually doing any conversion until you cash out (and many opposite transactions will net out). More likely, they are discouraging currency trading on their platform, and pocketing the fees. Doing the math on the 8K wall for example, $127 / 1.3006 (EUR daily rate) * (1 - 2.5% commission) = 95.26 EUR (exactly where the EUR wall is). This makes the wall 2.5% less competitive in any other currency, and much less likely to get hit than on the USD order book.
or bank fees. money goes out -> transfer fee, gets exchanged -> exchange fee, goes back in -> transfer fee, you buy BTC -> Gox fee. I can see it reaching 2.5%.
10.
Post 2341560 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.01h):
Actually, the FAQ contradicts itself. Based on the answer to this question...
Q. Are there any other fees charged when trading in multi-currency?
A. No. However, please be advised that there is a 2.5% premium when a trade involves orders in different currencies. However, this is not a separate charge. It is already reflected in the price you see.
Based on that it looks like there are indeed separate order books, but that all trades are reflected on other currency book (minus a 2.5% currency commission - which quite frankly kills the competitiveness of the order). So the moral of the story is that it's best to trade on the busiest currency. If you trade in Thai Bhat, don't expect to get your orders filled.
Bank fees.
That's way too high for a bank fee transaction, especially since MtGox is not actually doing any conversion until you cash out (and many opposite transactions will net out). More likely, they are discouraging currency trading on their platform, and pocketing the fees. Doing the math on the 8K wall for example, $127 / 1.3006 (EUR daily rate) * (1 - 2.5% commission) = 95.26 EUR (exactly where the EUR wall is). This makes the wall 2.5% less competitive in any other currency, and much less likely to get hit than on the USD order book.
or bank fees. money goes out -> transfer fee, gets exchanged -> exchange fee, goes back in -> transfer fee, you buy BTC -> Gox fee. I can see it reaching 2.5%.
No, because MtGox doesn't actually make those conversions. They just have one large account per currency and only need to transfer from one currency to another if the net currency shift drives one currency account too low. I would say that, for the most part, they are almost never incurring any cost at all. That 2.5% is all profit. In any case, I would guess that it is often unlikely that any of the cross currency orders actually get filled since they are 2.5% below market (unless there's a persistent currency:BTC spread).
Technically they are not supposed to do fiat currency exchange. It might be they do not, in fact, move funds around with each operation. However, in case, say, some Gov agency forces them to do so, their expenses are covered by the 2.5% fee.
As you say, it will definitely discourage traders from opening cross currency orders, which makes gox's life easier. (don't think they would make much in cross currency fees)
11.
Post 2343369 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.01h):
I don't know, but this is bitcoin. If it looks bullish, watch for your back.
Bulls having sex, there might be a metaphor for this thread hidden in there.
watch out for mini bulls.
12.
Post 2347404 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.01h):
why won't people sell lower on stamp...the arbitrage from gox to stamp sucks since it's hard to get fiat back into gox.
That will change when they bring LTC online. You'll be able to convert fiat to LTC and send it to Gox. It might prove expensive, but you never know when you need it. Better pay a bit more than lose an opportunity because of banks.
13.
Post 2351090 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.01h):
Nothing's impossible. Bitcoin could be trading for $10, $50, $100 or even higher over the next few months.
That's wrong. Everything's impossible, except the one and only possible past and future. There is only one world. Possibilities are existing in our brains only.
Congratulations, you just rolled back about a century of physics.
A century of BS-physics. But I know, some QM 'physicists' (not all !) do indeed believe, that there are 'possibilities' for the past and the future.
I was referring to the "future" part of your claim.
That's the same. There is only one past and one future.
Also sprach Zarathustra
14.
Post 2352963 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.01h):
Thanks, figured it out
I'm aiming for 3.4 BTC, we'll see how this goes...
don't crash the market...
15.
Post 2356002 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.01h):
Gox being higher than Bitstamp is a thing of the past then :-)
Looks like BTC-E dropped under Gox. They were above them for a lot of Sunday.
back to normal
16.
Post 2362088 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.01h):
Someone's feeling bullish!
+1
He's a total bull!
17.
Post 2365314 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.02h):
you have to admit it at least looks familiar (even if the x2 buttom kills the little bit my theory), and anayway i hardly doubt we can brake 124-125 with this kind of volume
so... drop to 100 then... (if you're right).
18.
Post 2370613 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.02h):
I'll venture a wild guess: up up UP?
19.
Post 2392552 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.02h):
broke 120 again
20.
Post 2393603 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.02h):
10k ... puh ... mid morning snack
YUP ... going nowhere ... glued to our screens watching little red and green candles move occasionally
Got booze and fags though, so no worries there ...
to each their own
21.
Post 2393657 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.02h):
to each their own
Indeed
So pheonix is a result...
22.
Post 2399898 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.02h):
More and more people are cashing out. This is money that won't come back.
more ppl or same ppl?
23.
Post 2400180 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.02h):
so is selling 1 - 1.5 coin at a time and bots buy at 113
edit: now 112.5
24.
Post 2410840 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.03h):
Ok , I won't get it and I refuse to undestrand why bitcoin price has to go down in order to bounce back to 110+.
Second. I refuse to undestand how some of you can preach is a store of value when you expect it's value to halve in one- two weeks time.
Dude... it has only been above 30 for three months now. Unless you bought in the middle of a hype cycle you have at least tripled your money at these prices. However, I'm guessing based on your posts that you in fact did buy during the hype cycle. Don't worry... in 6 months to a year we'll have another one. Zoom the fuck out and relax.
Based on my post you could have understand that I don't give a f** about price.
I only bought coins for use and all. And opened a new wallet every time so I really don't have a clue how many bitcoins I still have in reality.
Whats i'm only intereste right now is its evolution. (and the people behind)
It's like any nascent industry. You have the idealists first, then the whales/bankers/whatnot move in and fuck it up for everyone who started it.
25.
Post 2414074 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.03h):
Ok , I won't get it and I refuse to undestrand why bitcoin price has to go down in order to bounce back to 110+.
Second. I refuse to undestand how some of you can preach is a store of value when you expect it's value to halve in one- two weeks time.
Because "store of value" doesn't mean "get rich quick". Two weeks, three months mean nothing in the grand scheme of things. Just think that 1btc was worth $0.079 in may 2010, $2 in November 2011 and $10ish in 2012.
If we close 2013 at $40ish, BTC will have worked as an excellent store of value for me. It's the best I know. If you don't see it, then you are just short sighted. Maybe you wish to buy today at $100 and sell at $200 in one months. Well, wake up. That's not how it works. Stores of value are for the long term, especially if they are commodity like and thus prone to volatility and manipulation.
Just zoom out and look at the big picture, guys. Really why are you interested in BTC? For the quick easy buck?
Ah, now i finally understand your attitude. It's all about you. Just because you bought quite cheap everybody who didn't still has to understand how it's amazingly good it is if Bitcoin ends this year at 40 bucks. And if we don't see it we are short sighted.
No, it's not "about me", if this was "only about me" I could be bitter and angry because my "btc value" decreased by 50% since April, 10th.
Just do not expect btc to always go up in both mid and short term, especially not after a bubble burst. Because is nonsense. Night is dark, there's no surprise and is expected. On the contrary, expect BTC to go UP in the long term (years) - as it always did.
There's nothing to worry about, really. Bubbles need to burst all the way down.
To manipulate your numbers a bit, the trend from 2010 to 2013 could mean a 25$ BTC in 2013.
0.079 x 20 x 5 x 1.25 ≃ 25$
2010 2011 2012 2013
It probably has a worse reliability than the back'o napkin analysis but you can make it fit the 1.42% growth "theory" (or sth %)
edit: you obviously need to tweak the initial value and timing for the multipliers, but...
26.
Post 2419614 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.03h):
did the 90$ wall get bought or just moved down to 86?
27.
Post 2419629 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.03h):
did the 90$ wall get bought or just moved down to 86?
bought
thx
28.
Post 2429681 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.03h):
Bought at 101, sold at 107. This is fun! Rinse and repeat I hope.
Did same as you
i was on my way to sell on 110 but i was to slow to log in to gox
you should try the app.
29.
Post 2430894 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.03h):
To me, it seems that Bitcoin is resting on the 6mo-exp trendline with low volume, and $.12 is the new $0.005.
There is not much to do then hold (= buy bitcoins with everything that you can spare).
It is becoming unlikely that we'll see $300 this year.
I am fine, thank you.
Welcome back!
So, not even $300 by this year? So we can rule out $300,000 per BTC for sure, right?
What a pity...
He said "unlikely", not "not". There is also always 299.99$ and down w/o taking into account the error margin...
Also, is that $300 per mBTC or BTC...?
30.
Post 2434522 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.03h):
So you sold everything, right?
31.
Post 2434723 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.03h):
So you sold everything, right?
Sitting on fiat now.
Do not take my picture seriously. It is just for fun. BTW, I was wrong on every picture I posted so far
lol
So it's an indicator as to what will NOT happen
32.
Post 2434838 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.03h):
lol
So it's an indicator as to what will NOT happen
Pretty much so. You'll make a fortune taking trades opposite to my predictions
The market is so small, I think it can probably be said of a lot of ppl here. TA seems very much useless, news could be a factor, but then you have the whales or anyone with a stash needing to cash out and it's the circus....
I think I will henceforth use a dartboard to make predictions. I'll probably be as accurate as the next man...
33.
Post 2439503 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.03h):
everyone just seem poised for the dive....so up up UP! (OK sidewayz for now....
)
34.
Post 2439517 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.03h):
@strawbs:
Welcome mate
Any specific reason you're trading in GBP? (possibly other than it's what you started with)
35.
Post 2439543 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.03h):
So basically sideways trading for the past 8 hours or so. Still haven't gotten confirmation of pattern I am looking at, but it seems to be going in the right direction. I'll give it another 24 hours, that's plenty of time for it to confirm.
Sellers market but no buyers. Fasten your seatbelt.
(that makes TOTAL sense!
)
36.
Post 2439638 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.03h):
@strawbs:
Welcome mate
Any specific reason you're trading in GBP? (possibly other than it's what you started with)
Cheers mate. Just because I transfered cash from a UK bank account. Mt Gox seem to charge an additional 2.5% if you want to change currency. I'm regetting that a bit, but I believe (maybe incorrectly) that the global market is available regardless of currency.
I think the 2.5% is because they can't exchange the fiat directly and need to go through their bank (legally, not technically), so it's simply to discourage the practice (higher costs, more work for them) but it was argued they're just greedy.
I think it's probably a bit of both
37.
Post 2439651 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.03h):
Appreciated post and welcome. I tend to agree with most that you said. In particular we have to be careful with TA and BTC, in can turn on a dime for no reason.
Can't comment on Jaroslaw. I have never ignored a poster as I think there is occasionally truth in the false, so I don't like to filter information. Though, at times, it certainly gets tough ;-)
I'm guessing it's because most traders (including well backed ones) are spooked by the fact that this is entirely unregulated. If Mt.Gox gets taken down, who do they raise a law suit against to try to get their cash back? This prevents most traditional traders from getting into it.
I considered it to be a HUGE risk to deposit c.£30k (c. USD$50k) into a Japanese bank account with zero chance of recourse should they decide to make a run for it or be brought down by the Feds.
I decided to grow some balls and go for it. Either I have bigger balls than most traditional traders or I'm more reckless. Time will tell, I suppose....
I switched to USD because GBP had crazy spreads in late April.
USD is the main currency, better liquidity. Other fiat might give some arb possibilities though (as well as using other exchanges - I kind of like Bitstamp too - great exchange rate).
38.
Post 2443471 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.04h):
The biggest threat to Bitcoin right now IS regulation.
+1 can't argue with that
I do.
The biggest threat to regulation is Bitcoin
This is what scare guys like coin seeker, it feels so warm and comfortable in FEDs bosom, or using Ripple, the final "debt+trust as a currency" centralized system....
BTC its not only internet's cash, free as a bird and superior by orders of magnitude to its paper counterpart, it's also
regulated by math and not by those who have the power to press the button of the money printing machines.
A lot of power to the people, gentlemen.
I think that, like in every market, BTC is regulated by whalemath. Liquidity is an obvious issue and Bitcoin would greatly benefit from a simplification of the exchange with fiat. It's a PAIN to get into Bitcoin. Exchanges should (probably) also work closer together to allow for more arbitrage opportunities.
39.
Post 2443866 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.04h):
I think that, like in every market, BTC is regulated by whalemath. Liquidity is an obvious issue and Bitcoin would greatly benefit from a simplification of the exchange with fiat. It's a PAIN to get into Bitcoin. Exchanges should (probably) also work closer together to allow for more arbitrage opportunities.
It would be fine for Bitcoin and traders but not for monopoly exchange.
They "just" need to agree on margins. No reason anyone should be cheated. Also, more trades = more money for the exchanges.
40.
Post 2443911 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.04h):
This is what scare guys like coin seeker, it feels so warm and comfortable in FEDs bosom, or using Ripple, the final "debt+trust as a currency" centralized system....
BTC its not only internet's cash, free as a bird and superior by orders of magnitude to its paper counterpart, it's also regulated by math and not by those who have the power to press the button of the money printing machines.
A lot of power to the people, gentlemen.
Power to the rich people and massive coin holders. No different than the current banking and government status quo. Just nerdier.
What you say is that wealthy people rules, well thats how capitalism works, and Bitcoin was never designed to address that. Its just the most neutral form of money you can conceive. And "the current banking system and government status quo" face a huge, game-changing challenge with Bitcoin, only that by itself is a huge step forward.
We'll just have to agree to disagree on the "game-changing challenge". $1 billion market cap?? Laughable at best. It's not even a drop, of a drop in the bucket. They're not worried. Not at all.
I'll go for *potentially* game changing.
I dream of a hardware miner/wallet that you'd use as your home ATM...plug and play, secure.
41.
Post 2450273 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.04h):
I'll go for *potentially* game changing.
I dream of a hardware miner/wallet that you'd use as your home ATM...plug and play, secure.
That's a pretty cool idea. However, that assumes that what is being kept secure, is still valuable. With this manipulation and no safeguards in place any big money player can destroy Bitcoin. I didn't realize that before, but now it is blatantly clear. Let's use any government that has $1 billion to spare.
They could build massive mining rigs and with the rest, purchase BTC slowly. It wouldn't take long before they would control enough BTC to just continually smash the markets with wave after wave of coordinated "dump attacks". All confidence would be would be lost. Current investors would flee into other currencies and investments. Potential investors would stay away from a corrupt and manipulated currency. It's actually a better Achilles heel than any regulation could dream of having.
So in the end, Bitcoin's greatest weakness, is it's very own principles of non-regulation. The irony is quite amusing.
Worst. Attack. Idea. Ever.
The attacker would be dumping free money until he/she runs out and then the system would continue to run as usual.
Indeed they are free to donate their money to the market. Then again, it isn't really their money to begin with is it?
BTC is so tiny that the FED could just buy enough BTC to make it skyrocket in en epic pump, then crash it to single digits, creating a few notable fortunes and ruining millions of people on the way. Burning people with BTC seems indeed more effective than simply banning it.
Still, they would be burning piles of money, this is an expensive stunt to perform, "affordable" only by an economic super-power willing to virtually destroy money to
try to get rid of Bitcoin. BTC is still too small to deserve such kind of attention, if they decide to play the pump&dump game they really need to go till the end, waking up the sleeping monster
In a few years, not even the FED may afford such kind of attack. And if they do, it will be a hell of a ride and nice fight. Keep'em coming.
The idea is to decentralize even more by making the technology easier to use by a wider audience. A BTC blackbox, a BTC credit card etc (or rpietila's paper BTC IOUs - hmmm like Ripple
) are what's needed.
We need to take the geek side out of the Bitcoin use. Make it easy to use so people can simply ignore the technology behind it and use it as they would any other currency (and each device should be a miner, to process transactions and secure the network). That's when mass adoption can really start.
OTOH, I also think that Bitcoin will be superseded, eventually, and possibly even by a GOV-launched coin (best way to beat BTC is to make it irrelevant), unless we reach critical mass within a short period of time (less than 10 years from introduction).
42.
Post 2450327 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.04h):
I'll go for *potentially* game changing.
I dream of a hardware miner/wallet that you'd use as your home ATM...plug and play, secure.
That's a pretty cool idea. However, that assumes that what is being kept secure, is still valuable. With this manipulation and no safeguards in place any big money player can destroy Bitcoin. I didn't realize that before, but now it is blatantly clear. Let's use any government that has $1 billion to spare.
They could build massive mining rigs and with the rest, purchase BTC slowly. It wouldn't take long before they would control enough BTC to just continually smash the markets with wave after wave of coordinated "dump attacks". All confidence would be would be lost. Current investors would flee into other currencies and investments. Potential investors would stay away from a corrupt and manipulated currency. It's actually a better Achilles heel than any regulation could dream of having.
So in the end, Bitcoin's greatest weakness, is it's very own principles of non-regulation. The irony is quite amusing.
The BTC ecosystem is still nascent and, as such, still very fragile. The attack you describe would be a good, if expensive way to hurt it but the opportunity window for it is closing as adoption increases.
43.
Post 2450417 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.04h):
I think the 2.5% is because they can't exchange the fiat directly and need to go through their bank (legally, not technically), so it's simply to discourage the practice (higher costs, more work for them) but it was argued they're just greedy.
I think it's probably a bit of both
If you think they don't get a significant cut of that 2.5%, then you're naive, and I'm sure they love you as a customer.
You'll note I mentioned the legal and technical aspects
44.
Post 2450515 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.04h):
The idea is to decentralize even more by making the technology easier to use by a wider audience. A BTC blackbox, a BTC credit card etc (or rpietila's paper BTC IOUs - hmmm like Ripple
) are what's needed.
We need to take the geek side out of the Bitcoin use. Make it easy to use so people can simply ignore the technology behind it and use it as they would any other currency (and each device should be a miner, to process transactions and secure the network). That's when mass adoption can really start.
OTOH, I also think that Bitcoin will be superseded, eventually, and possibly even by a GOV-launched coin (best way to beat BTC is to make it irrelevant), unless we reach critical mass within a short period of time (less than 10 years from introduction).
I can't imagine people would happily adapt some coin created by governments.
Because everybody knows who Satoshi is? What if he/it really was/were, say, the IRA?
looking at facebook we saw many many other social networks pop up and disappear on the web before it was hugely adapted around the globe. (and that took 7-8 years!)
Looking at MySpace... they were big when FB wasn't even there (and who remembers friendster?).
i can't look in the future but also can't imagine some other cryptocurrency suddenly pop up and establish a market like btc has in last years.
Look at the MySpace/Facebook analogy. One is going nowhere and the other "to da moon".
The founders of a company are usually able to grow it to a certain size. The you need new people, "the suits", to grow it even bigger. It's like people are stuck within a certain 1-10 factor. If you want to reach 100, you need new people at 10.
Bitcoin is the founding coin, who's to say it'll grow enough before it runs out of steam? (maybe Bitcoin 2.0 will be the next Bitcoin, I'm not discounting the possibility)
45.
Post 2450611 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.04h):
OTOH, I also think that Bitcoin will be superseded, eventually, and possibly even by a GOV-launched coin (best way to beat BTC is to make it irrelevant), unless we reach critical mass within a short period of time (less than 10 years from introduction).
I see this Govt. backed coin oft repeated and I still have the same question. Who is going to mine this govt. coin? If they are going to be in control they would probably release it as they see fit anyway and based on that assumption why would they even need make a govt. coin when they already have USD which is basically already doing this? I don't think you can beat Bitcoin with a new form of the same old system.
It's not a new form of the old system, it's the new system but where Govs have a stake they feel comfortable with.
It could be a disruptive Gov or a small Gov, not especially a big one (and most probably NOT a big one). Imagine if Bitcoin was backed even by a small country like, say, Luxemburg... (enough with the drug dealers and the terrorists
)
46.
Post 2450617 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.04h):
+1.5k
BTC panic buyed from $110.5 to $112. Who pulled the trigger in here?
I didn't, because....
When you see a trap like that, jump it ?
47.
Post 2451543 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.04h):
The idea is to decentralize even more by making the technology easier to use by a wider audience. A BTC blackbox, a BTC credit card etc (or rpietila's paper BTC IOUs - hmmm like Ripple
) are what's needed.
We need to take the geek side out of the Bitcoin use. Make it easy to use so people can simply ignore the technology behind it and use it as they would any other currency (and each device should be a miner, to process transactions and secure the network). That's when mass adoption can really start.
OTOH, I also think that Bitcoin will be superseded, eventually, and possibly even by a GOV-launched coin (best way to beat BTC is to make it irrelevant), unless we reach critical mass within a short period of time (less than 10 years from introduction).
I can't imagine people would happily adapt some coin created by governments.
Because everybody knows who Satoshi is? What if he/it really was/were, say, the IRA?
looking at facebook we saw many many other social networks pop up and disappear on the web before it was hugely adapted around the globe. (and that took 7-8 years!)
Looking at MySpace... they were big when FB wasn't even there (and who remembers friendster?).
i can't look in the future but also can't imagine some other cryptocurrency suddenly pop up and establish a market like btc has in last years.
Look at the MySpace/Facebook analogy. One is going nowhere and the other "to da moon".
The founders of a company are usually able to grow it to a certain size. The you need new people, "the suits", to grow it even bigger. It's like people are stuck within a certain 1-10 factor. If you want to reach 100, you need new people at 10.
Bitcoin is the founding coin, who's to say it'll grow enough before it runs out of steam? (maybe Bitcoin 2.0 will be the next Bitcoin, I'm not discounting the possibility)
but these new coins can partly be exchanged to each other already.
I'm sure coin market would transform and every btc holder could change it to the new rising cryptocurrency. you can't just leave btc market out and start from the beginning creating your own.
(except you are a big company with an already huge market share)
the comparison to social networks was a bit off by me because some user account is worth nothing for a market in itself than the potential for marketing, btc has an actual value to buy products and that can't be ignored.
I wasn't actually talking about setting a value but it was an example to show that, even though you're the first, you can be surpassed by a newcomer.
In this I mean that Bitcoin could be surpassed by a new coin (from a Gov or not) and simply fade away. I don't think you can kill it or take it over as such, but making it irrelevant is a possibility (and would have the same effect).
48.
Post 2452431 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.04h):
Businesses want to make money. You said you are a capitalist, right. Well, if you could drop visa, mastercard, etc. and increase some of your sales profits by 2%-4%, why would you "snub" that?
There is some small ideas and big ideas to enforce BTC, though. We already gave Bitcointip in Haikko, and I am likely extending it to Punavuori (an area in the center part of Helsinki where about 5000-10000 people live). We will dole out free millibitcoins as bills, and inform all the restaurants there that if they serve their clients well, they will receive tips (because tips are already there in the hands of their clientele - we have give them out for free to all the inhabitants
Then the restaurants can cash them in for euros, or redeem them for actual bitcoins. Or keep them in circulation as bitcoin-denominated change.
July 7th, the restaurants in central-southern Helsinki area would all be delivered a bulletin, concerning
What is Bitcointip. They are small bills that soon will come to circulation and can at any time be exhanged for euros, or redeemed as physical bitcoins by bringing them to an exchange point (the area where this experiment is conducted is only about 100 acres (40 ha) and walkable. After a restaurateur sign, the tip is redeemable.
There are only about 5600 apartments below a certain line that classifies the area as South-Helsinki. These all can be delivered by mass mailing. Actually we believe that most of the salvos empty themselves in the trashcan, so the payload would be about 800 bitcoin-sheets which is 3,200 bitcointip notes. Free money can also be given on the streets to the ones who know. We need several Bitcoin-T-shirts for that
(remember my earlier idea if the summit were oversold...)There are about 300 restaurants in the area, I believe we have quite good ratios, if the number of actually usable tipnotes exceeds the restaurants by a factor of 10.
I thought the restaurant approach might work in Brussels as well (many restaurants in a tight area), but then, do you want to attract the attention of the EU?
49.
Post 2452605 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.04h):
but then, do you want to attract the attention of the EU?
What do you mean?
This can swing both ways, good or bad.
If you attract the attention of the EU officials (in Brussels, you cannot *not* bump into them), you put BTC on the EU map which is potentially a good thing, but you also risk exposing it to unwanted regulation, which could be a hindrance.
I'd be interested to know how things turn out in Helsinki.
50.
Post 2452688 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.04h):
Businesses want to make money. You said you are a capitalist, right. Well, if you could drop visa, mastercard, etc. and increase some of your sales profits by 2%-4%, why would you "snub" that?
There is some small ideas and big ideas to enforce BTC, though. We already gave Bitcointip in Haikko, and I am likely extending it to Punavuori (an area in the center part of Helsinki where about 5000-10000 people live). We will dole out free millibitcoins as bills, and inform all the restaurants there that if they serve their clients well, they will receive tips (because tips are already there in the hands of their clientele - we have give them out for free to all the inhabitants
Then the restaurants can cash them in for euros, or redeem them for actual bitcoins. Or keep them in circulation as bitcoin-denominated change.
July 7th, the restaurants in central-southern Helsinki area would all be delivered a bulletin, concerning
What is Bitcointip. They are small bills that soon will come to circulation and can at any time be exhanged for euros, or redeemed as physical bitcoins by bringing them to an exchange point (the area where this experiment is conducted is only about 100 acres (40 ha) and walkable. After a restaurateur sign, the tip is redeemable.
There are only about 5600 apartments below a certain line that classifies the area as South-Helsinki. These all can be delivered by mass mailing. Actually we believe that most of the salvos empty themselves in the trashcan, so the payload would be about 800 bitcoin-sheets which is 3,200 bitcointip notes. Free money can also be given on the streets to the ones who know. We need several Bitcoin-T-shirts for that
(remember my earlier idea if the summit were oversold...)There are about 300 restaurants in the area, I believe we have quite good ratios, if the number of actually usable tipnotes exceeds the restaurants by a factor of 10.
I thought the restaurant approach might work in Brussels as well (many restaurants in a tight area), but then, do you want to attract the attention of the EU?
They already know http://www.ecb.int/pub/pdf/other/virtualcurrencyschemes201210en.pdf)
Yes, that "drug money coin"...
However, it's one thing to "know about it" and another to be directly confronted with it in a totally LEGAL fashion. They might actually be shocked in realizing there are other uses to BTC and that THEY can be a part of it too (if they choose to). It's going to be a reality check for them.
51.
Post 2452772 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.04h):
but then, do you want to attract the attention of the EU?
What do you mean?
This can swing both ways, good or bad.
If you attract the attention of the EU officials (in Brussels, you cannot *not* bump into them), you put BTC on the EU map which is potentially a good thing, but you also risk exposing it to unwanted regulation, which could be a hindrance.
I'd be interested to know how things turn out in Helsinki.
Would you be surprised if senior members of HM Government (HMRC/MOD/Treasury), are talking to prominent members of the UK Bitcoin community? The attention phase has passed.
Oh, I think it's just starting.
52.
Post 2453031 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.04h):
but then, do you want to attract the attention of the EU?
What do you mean?
This can swing both ways, good or bad.
If you attract the attention of the EU officials (in Brussels, you cannot *not* bump into them), you put BTC on the EU map which is potentially a good thing, but you also risk exposing it to unwanted regulation, which could be a hindrance.
I'd be interested to know how things turn out in Helsinki.
Maybe a stupid question from my side, however i could not think of a answer.
How do you see Brussel ( or an other government ) regulate Bitcoin?
They could ban the use of the Bit-tips, for ex. That would put a stop to the initiative.
53.
Post 2453074 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.04h):
but then, do you want to attract the attention of the EU?
What do you mean?
This can swing both ways, good or bad.
If you attract the attention of the EU officials (in Brussels, you cannot *not* bump into them), you put BTC on the EU map which is potentially a good thing, but you also risk exposing it to unwanted regulation, which could be a hindrance.
I'd be interested to know how things turn out in Helsinki.
Would you be surprised if senior members of HM Government (HMRC/MOD/Treasury), are talking to prominent members of the UK Bitcoin community? The attention phase has passed.
Oh, I think it's just starting.
It started a few months ago, and is a continuing dialogue.
They're only a few years late...
54.
Post 2453115 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.04h):
Once they start there will be no end. In no time you will have to prompt your peers for permission before adding them to peers.dat.. put a big warning sign saying THIS IS NOT MONEY on any physical bitcoins.. register all your addresses with the ECB.. their imagination has no end. They even regulate how deep your tractor is allowed to make tracks on your own farmland.
eu even regulated to what degree a banana has to bend to sell it as that. (no joke!)
55.
Post 2453240 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.04h):
First step to becoming a recognized currency: pay your taxes in BTC! Way to go Orange!
56.
Post 2453461 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.04h):
Once they start there will be no end. In no time you will have to prompt your peers for permission before adding them to peers.dat.. put a big warning sign saying THIS IS NOT MONEY on any physical bitcoins.. register all your addresses with the ECB.. their imagination has no end. They even regulate how deep your tractor is allowed to make tracks on your own farmland.
eu even regulated to what degree a banana has to bend to sell it as that. (no joke!)
thanks for nitpicking
(ok it's not the bending per se)
that's what you get for readings news without doing own research.
but still a lot of of these regulations are ridiculous and many biological farmers can't sell their whole crop but just the amount that fits to those partly exaggerated standards.
Not interested in nitpicking, just thought I'd post a wikipedia link rather than the EU regulation.
57.
Post 2453771 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.04h):
Not interested in nitpicking, just thought I'd post a wikipedia link rather than the EU regulation.
never mind
but thanks for the info, now i learned something about regulation of fruits in eu.
you never know when that gets useful.
What? Are you kidding? Bent bananas? I can see a million uses right there!
58.
Post 2461654 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.04h):
down, down, DOWN for now
59.
Post 2462122 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.04h):
Of course bitcoin is the currency of criminals, that's why it was created in the first place, to have a safe haven for criminals. But you need to realize that being a criminal is not a bad thing, it's a good thing.
Now that's something! It's a good thing for the criminal as long as they are not caught, and a bad thing to their victims.
You seem to live under the illusion that every crime has a victim, that is utterly false. In fact, most crimes are completely victimless.
Or rather you cannot easily pinpoint who the victim is. Otherwise it's not a "real" crime.
60.
Post 2462155 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.04h):
(blasphemy, prostitution etc.)
bad examples.
61.
Post 2462160 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.04h):
Of course bitcoin is the currency of criminals, that's why it was created in the first place, to have a safe haven for criminals. But you need to realize that being a criminal is not a bad thing, it's a good thing.
Now that's something! It's a good thing for the criminal as long as they are not caught, and a bad thing to their victims.
You seem to live under the illusion that every crime has a victim, that is utterly false. In fact, most crimes are completely victimless.
Following your line of thought by saying that "being criminal is a good thing" you live under the illusion that every crime is victimless.
Or he's thinking about consenting victims.
62.
Post 2462636 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.04h):
In other news: guys, time to sell. Really.
fake support?
63.
Post 2467217 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.04h):
Is it just me or this canyon has gotten a tad steeper if compared to few days ago?
Is that a serious question? Is it just me or is it June 13th while few days ago the day could be expressed with a single digit? Fuck, I'm so observative.
must be the new glasses!
64.
Post 2467278 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.04h):
It's just lo-fi pattern recognition, but every time things have flattened out like this in the last 3 weeks we've dropped - this is tracking Goomboos 10/21
Looking forward to the weekend
some tried to swim with the big fishie on the 7th, but he played on the 9th... so yeah, maybe Sunday this time, unless... not
65.
Post 2471284 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.04h):
From the way this keeps happening I can't help wondering if it's a deliberate attempt to damage confidence in BTC rather than a way to make money or simple incompetence. Now, who would both be able to afford to do this and benefit from it? Maybe I'm just being paranoid but I can't help suspecting the US government or their banks - neither of whom are famous for playing fair or even obeying the law. They could cause trouble like this with their spare change.
I don't think a tin foil hat is necessary to consider them capable of malicious behaviour, they have a long history of it.
or it's a way to soften up the meat before you *really* bite into it...
66.
Post 2471412 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.04h):
From the way this keeps happening I can't help wondering if it's a deliberate attempt to damage confidence in BTC rather than a way to make money or simple incompetence. Now, who would both be able to afford to do this and benefit from it? Maybe I'm just being paranoid but I can't help suspecting the US government or their banks - neither of whom are famous for playing fair or even obeying the law. They could cause trouble like this with their spare change.
I don't think a tin foil hat is necessary to consider them capable of malicious behaviour, they have a long history of it.
or it's a way to soften up the meat before you *really* bite into it...
I don't think anyone is going to take a big bite until MtGox no longer determines the price of the Bitcoin market. It really is laughable when you think about it. I think everyone is really just waiting for the next gen exchanges.
If I were an Evil Twin and had enough money, I would definitely try to wreak havoc (not too much though, don't want to completely destabilize the ecosystem) to buy at a lower pricepoint.
But yes, nextgen exchange is an idea. That actually can lead to yet another tinfoilhattery: what if I really wanted to destabilize MTG and then, like a knight in shining armor, open my brand new exchange (that follows all the laws, has some anti-manipulation features, whatnot)?
Bitcoin is actually pretty fragile, when you think about it, but also has an enormous potential. This has attracted and will attract more unsavoury characters. And when *real* money will start to play with it, run for the hills (actually, HOLD for the mid to long term).
67.
Post 2473390 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.04h):
sidewayzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
sunday action 50/50
68.
Post 2474064 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.04h):
Just look at the Top 20 Richest Wallet Listing (if you have archive that list previously). The list will calm you down. If these wealthy people aren't worry about the recent price fluatuation, neither should you
If I had thousands of coins bought even below 10$ I wouldn't worry too
That's not true. If you have 50,000 coins, and the price drop by $10, it's a $500,000 lost no matter what price you previously purchased at.
But it's really only a (paper) gain/loss in fiat. You haven't lost anything in BTC. Point of view...
69.
Post 2481676 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.04h):
bitcoincharts.com out? down
70.
Post 2481910 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.04h):
Can someone explain the large Bid Ask imbalance - I mean it is easy to see but with so many bids (support?) right below the price and so few sells above the current price, shouldn't we be going up?
I've noticed it slowly had been building the last 2 or 3 days (as we went down.)
IAS
Bids are piling up, but price is slowly goes down, which means that more bids are sold into that asks bought. What buyers are doing is slowly moving their bids lower and lower while sellers sell.
There's no rush to buy.
There's no telling when the buying panic will start but it's getting nicely coiled up.
I think people will buy when they think it's cheap.
No they will buy when they think they will have no more chance at buying cheaper.
Both and more. They'll buy when they think it's the time to buy, for whatever reason/motive that drives them.
71.
Post 2482290 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.04h):
I don't know, I have a feeling the downward trend is on its last legs now. I've bought most of my bitcoins back at 98, I expect a little uptrend towards 110 soon.
Unless there is some action tomorrow, when you're asleep. You might have an opportunity to lower your avg price.
72.
Post 2482357 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.04h):
I don't know, I have a feeling the downward trend is on its last legs now. I've bought most of my bitcoins back at 98, I expect a little uptrend towards 110 soon.
Unless there is some action tomorrow, when you're asleep. You might have an opportunity to lower your avg price.
I use an alarm to wake me when the price goes above or below a certain price. People are expecting another Sunday dump but I think it's going to be the opposite this time. Dumps don't work when everyone expects them, so you need to do the opposite of what's expected to get results.
I'm 50/50 on Sunday vs Tuesday (but it could be Monday or not at all - aaargh!
)
73.
Post 2482807 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.04h):
Can't argue with you on price ... you got that one spot on
lol
74.
Post 2482818 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.04h):
could anyone point me to a site where I can see the PSAR? ('cept for bitcoincharts.com)
75.
Post 2482995 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.04h):
could anyone point me to a site where I can see the PSAR? ('cept for bitcoincharts.com)
In oranges or potatoes ?
oranges, apples too. potatoes are used for sth entirely different. check your maths!
76.
Post 2485296 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.05h):
Instead of evidence you people really should talk about probabilities or indications instead. Evidence is a way too strong word to use when trying to predict the behaviour of a market.
Evidence can give an indication of what will happen, sometimes with a probability attached.
I think the market is too small for that, too easily influenced/manipulated. TA works better on the FOREX than at this size. Besides, all indicators are _lagging_.
edit: I don't mean TA is not useful but you have to be real quick to react when a whale or other manipulator decides to play and messes up your nice TA.
edit2: still no parabolic SAR from bitcoincharts. any other service showing it?
77.
Post 2485446 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.05h):
Instead of evidence you people really should talk about probabilities or indications instead. Evidence is a way too strong word to use when trying to predict the behaviour of a market.
Evidence can give an indication of what will happen, sometimes with a probability attached.
edit2: still no parabolic SAR from bitcoincharts. any other service showing it?
tradingview.com
excellent, thx
78.
Post 2485588 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.05h):
Instead of evidence you people really should talk about probabilities or indications instead. Evidence is a way too strong word to use when trying to predict the behaviour of a market.
Evidence can give an indication of what will happen, sometimes with a probability attached.
I think the market is too small for that, too easily influenced/manipulated. TA works better on the FOREX than at this size. Besides, all indicators are _lagging_.
I was making the point that 'evidence' is the right word there.
I take your point about manipulation, it's shockingly effective, but I think people begin to see through it eventually (hence the consistent declines in volume as people get fed up). Surely whales can only feed for so long before the plankton realise that they're losing more and more money and leave.
I think there is some cultural bias in the meaning of "evidence". Anyway, I understand what you mean.
The problem with the whales is they are really too big & I don't see any whaler...
79.
Post 2485605 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.05h):
Instead of evidence you people really should talk about probabilities or indications instead. Evidence is a way too strong word to use when trying to predict the behaviour of a market.
Evidence can give an indication of what will happen, sometimes with a probability attached.
edit: I don't mean TA is not useful but you have to be real quick to react when a whale or other manipulator decides to play and messes up your nice TA.
whales are buying at specific time, that's why we use TA... (im not including manipulators)
That feels like an abuse of the acronym. Do you use TA to predict when they will buy, or to predict what/how much they will buy etc?
80.
Post 2485799 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.05h):
Instead of evidence you people really should talk about probabilities or indications instead. Evidence is a way too strong word to use when trying to predict the behaviour of a market.
Evidence can give an indication of what will happen, sometimes with a probability attached.
edit: I don't mean TA is not useful but you have to be real quick to react when a whale or other manipulator decides to play and messes up your nice TA.
whales are buying at specific time, that's why we use TA... (im not including manipulators)
That feels like an abuse of the acronym. Do you use TA to predict when they will buy, or to predict what/how much they will buy etc?
i think it's impossible to predict how much they will buy
, dont rly like "predict" i prefer to anticipate when they could buy. they're not silly most of the time they're buying on massive resistance like the most of us.
TA isn't everything we have to keep an eye on news ect.. but i cant understand how people can trade without TA
I would venture those usually end up in the loosing side of the zero sum game, go away, and then are replaced by others.
I've studied TA some 20 years ago, going through some refreshers, but RIGHT NOW, I wouldn't trade BTC. I would buy more if I had the fiat in an exchange, as an investment, but I need to study the patterns better before trading. It's going too fast
81.
Post 2485996 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.05h):
what do you mean by "trade", if you're talking about daytrading then i'm 100% agree that it's way too risky and hardly predictable on bitcoin but im actually doing 3-4 trades/month based on daily chart and it works correctly.
Yes, I meant day trading.
Have you tried the bots?
82.
Post 2486003 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.05h):
Instead of evidence you people really should talk about probabilities or indications instead. Evidence is a way too strong word to use when trying to predict the behaviour of a market.
Evidence can give an indication of what will happen, sometimes with a probability attached.
I think the market is too small for that, too easily influenced/manipulated. TA works better on the FOREX than at this size. Besides, all indicators are _lagging_.
I was making the point that 'evidence' is the right word there.
I take your point about manipulation, it's shockingly effective, but I think people begin to see through it eventually (hence the consistent declines in volume as people get fed up). Surely whales can only feed for so long before the plankton realise that they're losing more and more money and leave.
I think there is some cultural bias in the meaning of "evidence". Anyway, I understand what you mean.
The problem with the whales is they are really too big & I don't see any whaler...Don't need a whaler if there's no food supply. I hope.
Nope
(but I don't see the plankton running for the abyss either)
83.
Post 2486105 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.05h):
84.
Post 2489159 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.05h):
what do you mean by "trade", if you're talking about daytrading then i'm 100% agree that it's way too risky and hardly predictable on bitcoin but im actually doing 3-4 trades/month based on daily chart and it works correctly.
Yes, I meant day trading.
Have you tried the bots?
No, you? always wondered how much you can win with this thing..
Or lose. I'll setup some play money to see how they work, but the market going sideways is not a good time for bots IMO. It needs a bit more trending so you don't make too many useless trades. (and needs planning for the manipulations)
85.
Post 2489988 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.05h):
I'm still waiting for some shorting to go down to 85-ish. The manips were to get the price down. If so, they'll then sell into any rally with good news.
86.
Post 2490014 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.05h):
All the same, there is some tone of desperation in this. Just how heavily invested are you??
I started selling my bitcoins today, so I likely confirm as a contrarian indicator and you should buy. I still have 97% of the amount left, but now also some dollarz that I can use for paying the bills.
If I were you I'd sell it all. I sold all mine some time ago.
Do you want to crash the price?
87.
Post 2490546 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.05h):
His name is Rosti Pietila Risto Pietilä
FTFY
88.
Post 2490626 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.05h):
His name is Rosti Pietila Risto Pietilä
FTFY
Oh yeah, a rosti is one of those potato things isn't it !
Thx
no, that's Rösti.
We'll get there, eventually...
89.
Post 2493525 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.05h):
"COGNITARE EXTRA BUXUM"
I guess it should be "Cogitare ex buxam" or "cogitare ex castulam".
90.
Post 2497998 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.05h):
nice pic....
Nice chart. Bear in mind that the price is in the same ballpark as the actual bitcoin usage. It would be powerful to see this chart divided by the "# of users" or some other usage metric. If the marketcap is $50k per user, it is much less interesting to invest than if market cap is $500 per user.
In the Nasdaq bubble, mobile operators saw bubble valuations of $20k per user, which of course could not hold.
Dollar now has $2000 per person in the world valuation, bubble or not.
And these are exactly the numbers we don't have and do need to conclude if a 100 dollar coin is cheap or expensive
If all the world uses bitcoin exactly as much as they use gold now, 1 bitcoin will be valued at $300,000.
That will probably never happen. BTC would still be a running success if 10-50M people used it daily. What would you reckon the price range would be? 500 to 2500 USD (pro-rata or some other factor might apply?)
91.
Post 2498011 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.05h):
If all the world uses bitcoin exactly as much as they use gold now, 1 bitcoin will be valued at $300,000.
If ...
If ...
If ...
If I were rich, I would be rich.
Nice, but who cares?
Bitcoin will never ever be close to be used as much as gold is used now.
Come back in real life plz.
lol
is there a hidden message?
92.
Post 2498102 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.05h):
That will probably never happen. BTC would still be a running success if 10-50M people used it daily. What would you reckon the price range would be? 500 to 2500 USD (pro-rata or some other factor might apply?)
You made my day
I bet you were serious
I am. His calculation is based on gold, so he simply swaps Bitcoin for gold. Using historical data for gold, rounding errors and whatnot and he obtains a nice round figure of 300.000USD (2013 value) per Bitcoin. But that's only when everyone uses Bitcoin (I'm counting 6 billion people, which might be a little too low). It's quite a simple calculation.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=174620.msg1886147#msg1886147The problem is whether this can stand the reality test. Maybe his assumptions are wrong etc. Bitcoin is not tied to a physical item, so, unlike gold, it can vanish. Will that risk factor be included in the price? OTOH, you can absolutely store paper wallets. You could thus make Bitcoin banknotes (or IOUs), so the market cap could be multiplied (but then we're right back where we started: a debt ridden system).
Anyway, the whole Bitcoin experience is very interesting.
93.
Post 2498308 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.05h):
That will probably never happen. BTC would still be a running success if 10-50M people used it daily. What would you reckon the price range would be? 500 to 2500 USD (pro-rata or some other factor might apply?)
You made my day
I bet you were serious
I am. His calculation is based on gold, so he simply swaps Bitcoin for gold. Using historical data for gold, rounding errors and whatnot and he obtains a nice round figure of 300.000USD (2013 value) per Bitcoin. But that's only when everyone uses Bitcoin (I'm counting 6 billion people, which might be a little too low). It's quite a simple calculation.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=174620.msg1886147#msg1886147The problem is whether this can stand the reality test. Maybe his assumptions are wrong etc. Bitcoin is not tied to a physical item, so, unlike gold, it can vanish. Will that risk factor be included in the price? OTOH, you can absolutely store paper wallets. You could thus make Bitcoin banknotes (or IOUs), so the market cap could be multiplied (but then we're right back where we started: a debt ridden system).
Anyway, the whole Bitcoin experience is very interesting.
Man, $300k per BTC this year is just a delusion of a crazy guy. You have to be as dumb as you could possibly get to do not see that
Bitcoin's infrastructure is too weak to support that kind of adoption. The blockchain is not technically ready to support that kind of use (block size hard limit, etc.), let's leave apart Gox and the other exchanges managing that kind of "singularity" (LOL) in just a few months from now.
Everybody in here sees the amazing potential of BTC. How it can go to the moon and skrocket very fast. We all see that, you don't need to be a Supernode 1337 trad3r. But the difference between the sane and the crazy guy is the latter loses touch with reality, being blind to hard facts like the very real limits of Bitcoin's infrastructure.
That's why you should never trust your money to a guy like Rpietila, because when he goes nuts he loses sight with reality's knocking on his door. And he may very well end up leaving your BTC's in a Sauna.
This is not about the Bitcoin reaching 300K this year, or the infrastructure capability etc. It's the simple evaluation of his reasoning to get to the 300K figure in 2013-valued US Dollars (so the 300K might become 310K in 2014 USD with inflation, etc). He's basically postulating that if everyone were to use Bitcoin, it's value would reach 300K. He gets to that number by estimating the average number of Bitcoins each person would have and equates that with the average gold weight that everyone uses (historical data 1913-2013). He uses the average wage for a skilled worker (in the "West") as the basis of his price verification.
Even if the number is totally wrong, his math looks alright and his reasoning has some merit. I do find it ironic that he turns Bitcoin on its head by making it the new gold though (the basis for the old monetary system).
94.
Post 2498545 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.05h):
That will probably never happen. BTC would still be a running success if 10-50M people used it daily. What would you reckon the price range would be? 500 to 2500 USD (pro-rata or some other factor might apply?)
You made my day
I bet you were serious
I am. His calculation is based on gold, so he simply swaps Bitcoin for gold. Using historical data for gold, rounding errors and whatnot and he obtains a nice round figure of 300.000USD (2013 value) per Bitcoin. But that's only when everyone uses Bitcoin (I'm counting 6 billion people, which might be a little too low). It's quite a simple calculation.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=174620.msg1886147#msg1886147The problem is whether this can stand the reality test. Maybe his assumptions are wrong etc. Bitcoin is not tied to a physical item, so, unlike gold, it can vanish. Will that risk factor be included in the price? OTOH, you can absolutely store paper wallets. You could thus make Bitcoin banknotes (or IOUs), so the market cap could be multiplied (but then we're right back where we started: a debt ridden system).
Anyway, the whole Bitcoin experience is very interesting.
Man, $300k per BTC this year is just a delusion of a crazy guy. You have to be as dumb as you could possibly get to do not see that
Bitcoin's infrastructure is too weak to support that kind of adoption. The blockchain is not technically ready to support that kind of use (block size hard limit, etc.), let's leave apart Gox and the other exchanges managing that kind of "singularity" (LOL) in just a few months from now.
Everybody in here sees the amazing potential of BTC. How it can go to the moon and skrocket very fast. We all see that, you don't need to be a Supernode 1337 trad3r. But the difference between the sane and the crazy guy is the latter loses touch with reality, being blind to hard facts like the very real limits of Bitcoin's infrastructure.
That's why you should never trust your money to a guy like Rpietila, because when he goes nuts he loses sight with reality's knocking on his door. And he may very well end up leaving your BTC's in a Sauna.
This is not about the Bitcoin reaching 300K this year. It's the simple evaluation of his reasoning to get to the 300K figure in 2013-valued US Dollars (so the 300K might become 310K in 2014 USD with inflation, etc). He's basically postulating that if everyone were to use Bitcoin, it's value would reach 300K. He gets to that number by estimating the average number of Bitcoins each person would have and equates that with the average gold weight that everyone uses (historical data 1913-2013). He uses the average wage for a skilled worker (in the "West") as the basis of his price verification.
Even if the number is totally wrong, his math looks alright and his reasoning has some merit. I do find it ironic that he turns Bitcoin on its head by making it the new gold though (the basis for the old monetary system).
The math is not wrong, but the assumptions are. Before that kind of adoption many things have to improve, and he is just forgetting about all that, blinded by his delusions of grandeur.
If my grandmother had wheels and an engine, she would be a motorcycle. But there's no way to implant wheels+engine on a grandma, unless you give her a wheelchair, which does not make her a living motorcycle but a poor disabled woman.
I don't know if you are getting the metaphor, I admit it was a long shot
I'm not a zealot trying to convince you, I'm merely looking at his reasoning (I didn't say I joined that church either). I also think that tying Bitcoin to gold is of limited value (no pun intended
), but he's into gold so that's what he's working with.
I'd say the CAPEX and OPEX on mining equipment are a better view of the intrinsic value, but if no one wants to buy...
95.
Post 2498934 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.05h):
This is not about the Bitcoin reaching 300K this year, or the infrastructure capability etc. It's the simple evaluation of his reasoning to get to the 300K figure in 2013-valued US Dollars (so the 300K might become 310K in 2014 USD with inflation, etc). He's basically postulating that if everyone were to use Bitcoin, it's value would reach 300K.
You are wrong, he clearly stated that there is no way we are not reaching 300k USD per BTC this year:
To not believe in $300k this year is a denial of the facts. Only a technical flaw in the algorithm or a superstealthfast adoption of a superior altcoin currently not existing, or an all-out wiping away of all mankind can keep USD/BTC from exploding this year. Already everyone who has any position in this world knows about Bitcoin. Just post any nugget of actual facts that can contradict my $300k this year or cease replying to me with nothing material, thank you.
It wasn't just a thought experiment to him, he really believed it. Why would you even take this madman seriously?
lol, I missed that post (this thread is moving too fast
).
I agree that the "this year" is going to be difficult to achieve (understatement...), especially considering that Bitcoin would need to be used by everyone for that value to be reached (in his theory).
I'm not against the 300K as the _potential_ maximum value though, but I don't think we will ever see it. I'd be very happy if it were only 0.1% of that.
96.
Post 2498941 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.05h):
We haven't had a major sell for over a week now. Should the low volume continue for a few more days, I'd be worried holding BTC.
You just know that someone out there wants to liquidate his sweet millions in dirty fiat money.
tomorrow...
97.
Post 2499519 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.05h):
98.
Post 2501274 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.05h):
So...do you really think Mr. Manip is done with his play money?
99.
Post 2506411 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.05h):
buys at 7 AM CET, little trades every ≃10 mins, lots of "volume" on .01 BTC trades, mini walls at bid/ask...
what is going ON?
100.
Post 2506901 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.05h):
bid wall pulled
edit: weeeeee
101.
Post 2506998 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.05h):
still waiting on 133 to cash out some coins...
the grinding sideways is just to boring...
Give the guy (gal?) some credit, he's been changing the value of his micro trades. I mean, he's TRYING.
102.
Post 2507194 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.05h):
Most of you guys are crazy. Every time the price goes down, "all is well". Any bids or upward movement.... "OMG manipulators".
Ha! Thinly veiled attempt at trying to manipulate the market upwards with this post.
Nice try, BitPirate.
LOL.
^^ The price is likely to recover to at least $110 -- the pre-weekend sell-off was in anticipation of a dump that never happened; so now it's time for them to buy back.
OMG you're right. Creating a fake rally and selling into it is such not a good strategy to make money!
103.
Post 2507213 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.05h):
Most of you guys are crazy. Every time the price goes down, "all is well". Any bids or upward movement.... "OMG manipulators".
Ha! Thinly veiled attempt at trying to manipulate the market upwards with this post.
Nice try, BitPirate.
LOL.
^^ The price is likely to recover to at least $110 -- the pre-weekend sell-off was in anticipation of a dump that never happened; so now it's time for them to buy back.
OMG you're right. Creating a fake rally and selling into it is such not a good strategy to make money!
Rally's been coming for days. Other markets are rallying too. The rise isn't manipulation.
No but the tons of small trades, in equal bid/ask volume sure look like it. The rally didn't start the small trades but the small trades started the rally...look at the timing as well, v. regular.
edit: and the bid wall being pulled when there was a bit of movement from "3rd parties"
104.
Post 2507412 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.05h):
Which Chinese exchange are people looking at?
Every single one ;-)
You can see them all here:
http://btckan.com/priceUSD price is second from left.
The weekend drop was already pretty reluctant TBH.
That's an amazing link, 9 RMB exchanges! The Chinese are really getting excited about Bitcoin.
+1
105.
Post 2507491 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.05h):
so
buying selling btc
with for ltc now. time to
buy sell ltc...
106.
Post 2508674 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.05h):
107.
Post 2510760 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.05h):
Wallzilla being chewed ATM, seems legit
Crazy whales buying +$500k in coins at $108 when they could buy below $100? What's up with them? What are they smoking?
They didn't know it was going to go up to $108, and they want Bitcoins. Hindsight is always 20/20..
But... But... look at the depth... If he pulls that $500k wall the price will slide down till at least $105, probably till $102... Buying $2, $3 or $4 cheaper it's always better, with that volume we are speaking about 100BTC more... Enough to be a supernode!!
The greater good. Showing people that this is a good buy in point by staking his own capital. This is market confidence.
It's called bait and switch.
I think it's just bait. He might very well be buying his own wall for all we know... a good show of "support".
108.
Post 2511149 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.05h):
fasten your seatbelts
edit: that or he put the wall up to hold the price so he can go to bed. fake transactions have stopped too (and now everything is very at a standstill - lag?).
109.
Post 2511448 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.05h):
the wall has been touched
you make it sound so dirty!
110.
Post 2511469 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.05h):
wall gone
111.
Post 2517123 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.05h):
another pump and dump day. too much activity on 0.01 trades.
I was surprised yesterday's session didn't fallback more. Maybe the bulls only need a little reassurance. Blastoff or crash. Always 50/50.
edit: hop
http://www.forexminute.com/bitcoin/pay-in-bitcoins-for-drinks-at-this-london-restaurant-7888
112.
Post 2769445 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.11h):
TL;DR
I guess there was no 999 pages limit. Did Adam actually bet on his 180/BTC prediction?
Cheap coins. lol
113.
Post 2769620 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.11h):
Considering I just bought a few BTC, the price is bound to go down
Say what, 40 in the first week or 2 of August?
(where are the TA ppl when you need them!
)
114.
Post 2769841 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.11h):
Considering I just bought a few BTC, the price is bound to go down
Say what, 40 in the first week or 2 of August?
(where are the TA ppl when you need them!
)
I'm almost certain it is related to solipsism. I can call it great, check my posts, but when I actually buy lately, I don't (check my posts).
Seriously, as important as emotions are, they seem to get in the way with trading. Intuition, yes. Logic, yes. Emotions, no.
To me, it looks like we're close to the middle of the last rebound, and the timeframe should be a bit shorter than the previous one. We went down to 65ish (didn't check the exact figure) but it looks like we're headed to 40-50 (fingers on screen TA!).
Wondering where all the VC capital went... I sure wouldn't mind a180$ BTC.
115.
Post 2773359 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.11h):
If your libertarian romantic ever plays out I rather think we are facing the extinction of the human race.
Nah, just the part that should never have existed in the first place.
So how many chickens do you own?
Do chicken derivatives count?
This talk about Argentina makes me think bats are a better bet. Their derivatives (guano) has got value at least. Then again they probably don' taste as good.
116.
Post 2906045 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.13h):
yeah, now it's your girlfriend posting your oversized head...
117.
Post 2927571 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.13h):
my prev prediction was foolish, i apologize.
new prediction is under $1 by Friday.
Weak hands without Bitcoin has spoken. :-)
You forgot: HE will crash Bitcoin. Just wait a little, there are some little transfer issues, but 1$ this Friday. For sure.
118.
Post 2957967 (copy this link) (by KS) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.13h):
Are we going to see new rise soon?
Zoom out a bit and it looks like 2012, "back to normal".
