This is my TA as well....falling wedge.

I think you have to add another column...."Wrong God Exists" there to be more accurate. 

Isn't there an infinite chance that the god he could "believe in" is the wrong one?

In that case believing in no god is probably better than believing in the wrong one.

Looks like a head and shoulders forming....watch for the width of that right shoulder.

My second proposal of the day is to rename the "head and shoulders top" pattern to the "Mt Gox" pattern....it looks like a small mountain range if you squint and it also exemplifies the true meaning of disappointment. 

I'm mixing the drinks...what will it be tonight Frozenlock?

Not falling for it with this mini rally.

We are in for a few months of downtime and sideways movement before anything substantial occurs.

I'd say 2-3 months of sideways at the bottom.

"Bottoms" do not last for a weekend....use your brains people.

Yep, it's a pump...look at the small volume hft manipulation.

The red candles will be coming soon.  Be cautious when others are greedy.

On another interesting note Mt Gox is keeping up pretty well with all this stupidity.

Aaaand there is the dump....I hope everyone had their fingers on the "oh shit" button.

I tried too...btw sarc, what charting are you using?...I like what you are doing there.

Someone is just painting the tape with 0.01 trades and trying to start the fire so they can profit.


"Or just a function of coins being bought."

LMAO.

Sure they could....but 5000 disappeared in a few seconds? Pardon me if I am skeptical.

I believe they are hoping to push the price in the direction they want enough to trigger other bots into buying or selling based on the market movement.

If they can get the fast ema to cross over the slow ema (for a simple example) they can likely trigger a bunch of less sophisticated bots into making a move.


Plus....a lot of newbies just put in market orders without looking at the order book intelligently.

True, if they have super low fee's and a good bot they could "agitate" the market until the spread is higher than 2x their fee's...in this case 0.5%+ spread is enough to make money. 

And that's the classic head and shoulders pattern....here comes the boom. Down to ~90.

Right shoulder is slightly dropped...volume is decreasing...I guess we will see in the next little while.
If it breaks the neckline it will slide down.

Bitcoinwisdom

^Hahaha

I hope it is a rocket....I'm "balancing" and not all in or all out.

Almost exactly like that....don't tell everyone the secret to my success!

That's too bad, it's a really nice chart.

@Phoenix, thanks...the dress really is the secret of my success. 

Hate to say it but I can feel the drop is inevitable....volume is dead, and the neckline is close to being breached.

We win either way the movement goes so don't sweat it too much.

If it goes down I buy more and increase the amount of btc I have (which is my end goal anyway)....if it goes up I hold and the usd value of my btc goes up.

Volume is so low it doesn't matter, balancing is a good option for getting some sleep tonight.

Those GPU's have no resale either....who is buying used computer electronics for more than 10c on the dollar?

Do you trust open packaged used product being sold presumably on eBay and craig's list? I know I don't trust that they are anything less than severely abused and possible non-functional. Every high end ATI for sale will be suspect to have been used in btc mining and run to the max for months on end...

The used market is/will soon be flooded with cheap powerful graphics cards and no GPU miner is getting out with any significant part of their investment back.

 

Oooh, something juicy....you have my undivided attention. Dish.


Btw, does anyone else think it looks like it's upward wedging?
I can't help think it is going to shoot up a bit if it passes 100.

Shit...even if just a percentage of those people sell the price is going to drop.

It would be great if they would take those btc and reinvest in some of the other funds....

I've kept some fiat ready for the next drop....if it has to come, we will persist.

Interesting the price is taking a dump right now too...

Ok I'll ask....wtf is a "Trotter Indicator"? Lol.

A quick google search tells me nothing about this TA indicator.

From the numbers it sounds like you are talking about fib retracement.(?)

It's not even fibonacci, it's just $22 each retracement?

He's a fibber all right.

Well we are Canadian's you know...someone hand me the map I'll get us turned around.

The buy side of the chart is starting to look like a Tsunami is building....

I consider this and other trading concepts all the time.

Who cares what the orderbook has in terms of depth past the first XXX number of orders on each side?
I mean, if someone is selling at $250 right now...it's of no consequence to anyone, same as if someone is buying at $90...their orders will probably not be filled in a time frame that influences the current price. I agree that it can embolden the bidders/sellers to be ahead of the wall on either side though. (But take that price pressure with a grain of salt.)

Also, in my opinion the top orders on the bid side are worth far more than the lowest orders on the sell side, why?

We hear all the time that bitcoin "is only worth what someone will pay for it", yet we rarely hear that bitcoin is worth "the lowest someone will sell it for"...something to consider. Depending on the price/buying momentum it CAN be worth the "lowest someone is willing to sell for" but that is a far more rare scenario to see that then the reverse.

Just some thoughts on speculation...

I guess you'll be leaving us to go over to www.fiattalk.com from now on then?

Bid side is getting steep again! Another Tsunami on the way?

^What rock have you been hiding under?

Avalon transferred the returns for all the batch 3 customers yesterday...this is yesterdays news.

Those refund were all to potential miners....not people who are looking for refunds...they are looking for new hardware to invest in or to save their bitcoins. I don't know one miner that is not hoarding everything he makes right now.

Horseshit.

Well at least your name has "derp" in it....that's something of a consolation to me.

Only some time will tell us if this will last....I'd say we slide back a bit from this then move up again next week.

You guys can try to fud this down again all you want....it will do what it will do.

^ Haha, yes usually more conservative than this.

I think if we are talking about syndromes....everyone here sounds like we have stockholm syndrome.

Price shoots up and first thing everyone says is "oh shit we are going to PAY for this someday soon!", can't we just enjoy the uptick?

Smile, and live in the moment people!

This is not "too fast" for a small rally, and the whales aren't dumping anywhere else as of this posting....so stop acting like the victims of abuse that we are and get out there in the sunshine and have a good time.

A little bounce? or seriously going back up?

Edit: It's a trap!

Not enough volume to derive much from this.

Well, I think it earlier today overshot everyone's expectations and this was a small correction....looks like it is sideways bound again.
It was starting to look parabolic and was starting to concern everyone that this was...however welcome...too fast.

I have so many people on ignore that sometimes I have to un-ignore them for a second to find out what everyone else is talking about.

There are some big buyers hiding out there tonight...I saw a few feints in goxtool.
Some big bids were just thrown up and torn down in the blink of an eye....not sure if that was a mistake or not.

Step back and take a look at the 1 day if you need to take a breath.

This is a bull flag on that scale....in the 5 minute it looks like armageddon.

The world isn't ending people, it's either a correction or manipulation.

(And it seems to be finding support at the last level plateau.)

I think that if they do something in terms of integrating bitcoin into Paypal they would benefit from it an enormous amount in the long run....and bitcoin would be literally incalculable at that point. We have no idea of what even 10% of Paypal's $145b/per annum transaction rate would do to the price.

Nightowlace is a well respected member of the community also...he is someone I normally read with mature well thought out posts.
If this was a fabrication it would be totally outside of his previous online behavior...I feel it is likely a true statement of account as well.

@Phinneas

I believe one gets to be a well respected member of the community by contributing mature, intelligent and well thought out posts that aren't full of hype or fud.
Longevity is secondary in my opinion to the quality of someone's posts.


What I was saying is that everything else he's written (that I've read) has been mature and of high integrity.

If this was "hype", and turned out to be a lie it would be compltely out of previous character and would damage his integrity in the community.
This is why I lend a shred of credibility to what he has stated to us about the Paypal call.

Yes, what an interesting conundrum.
I imagine that some sellers will step up but unless a whale drops a few thousand coins there is going to be some demand that cannot be filled.

It's interesting that a lot of these sort of tech front runners fall on their face as the market develops.
I think they get complacent and stop innovating...next thing you know the next in line challenges the throne and takes over.

Myspace -> facebook
yahoo -> google
Commodore -> Apple
Atari -> Nintendo/Sony/Microsoft

Ok many of these are debatable....that's not my point.

We shouldn't be happy that Mt Gox is "dead"....having more than one exchange is a good thing.
We need options.

What we need is for a half dozen exchanges to pop up, driven firstly by customer demand and I think that a shared p2p online order book protocol is the way to go.


 



 

I think you are correct. Investing was seen as a means of "cold storage with benefits" more than anything.
None of those people are thinking about cashing out, except back into cold wallets, definitely not USD.

We had a purebread Mau up until he passed away this year!
Funny to see people here talking about one...

Sorry for the OT everyone...

Thanks, very rare cat indeed. Ours was ~$5500 here in Canada several years ago...there are not many of those around that's why I was surprised to see people talking about Mau's.
 
He was a silver Mau with a prominent black Scarab on his forehead.
Very affectionate and his nickname was McLovin.

Now back to your regularly scheduled Wall Observing...

Thanks for the load of philosopher-babble bullshit, lmao.

Isn't there an amateur philosophers forum somewhere you can go to get off?

This seems like a totally normal retracement....volume dropped a bit and some people took profit.
Lots of other are buying into it and getting some bargains in the process...meh...panic holding.  
 

We haven't had a "full on " correction...whatever that means to you.
(I'm guessing you mean something >50% fib retracement.)

However...we have had a number of very healthy "bull flags" where people chose to take some profit and it has moved up immediately afterward.
This is a very healthy sign. Every time it has gone too steep it has flagged back down a bit and recovered to the slower growth rate.

If you are scared that it is "tanking" then short/hedge with a sales of perhaps 10% of your holdings...if it goes down, buy at a discount, if it goes up  you didn't miss out on much.

Being a nervous investor and posting about it constantly helps no one.

No it isn't...it's like listening to a bunch of kids chatter about the boogeyman.

And BTCChina isn't showing any thing like a "tanking pattern"....btw there is no such thing as a "tanking pattern" in tech analysis....this is little children making up their own terminology to describe things they don't understand.

It has flattened out because China is hitting the 2000 psych barrier and it will take some momentum to get past that number....no one is dumping as of yet. It is actually positive imo that it hasn't retraced a significant amount into this weeks rally.  

I fully expect a flash crash back to around ~1638Y (50% fib retrace), or even lower to ~1446Y (78%).....this likely won't last long but it would be worthwhile to place some buys at these levels and move them up as the price increases.

What I don't do is worry like a little bitch and chatter about it all day...make your own analysis, and stick to removing emotion (like fear) from the equation if you are going to trade.

I just saw your post and commented when I did....

I fully expect a flash crash back to around ~1638Y (50% fib retrace), or even lower to ~1446Y (78%).....this likely won't last long but it would be worthwhile to place some buys at these levels and move them up as the price increases.

Hey if that is directed at me I'm the only one talking about the price direction and adding some TA....and NOT about my "feelings", lol.

It may, I'm watching them bounce off the ceiling this morning too.

I'm really interested in what happens around 16:00 today EST.
China has been surging every day around that time....I expect them to burst through.

That was a totally normal retrace....L4 = 61.8%....actually it is very healthy, good to see some people taking profit.

It went down to 266 for a few seconds before it was bought back up....that's how much demand there was.
Lots of people waiting for those brief red candle special sales.

I know a lot of people don't go in for the fibonacci numbers but they generally work.

I hope some people grabbed some deals based on the pricing I threw out the other day....based on the increased top you would have had to move those buys up (significantly) but the percentages work.

\

Good to hear someone else is thinking along these lines too.

He said the other day he sold everything....this is just his wet dream.

 

Not really...none of it matters to me right now.

I'm not selling anything, just mining as fast as possible and buying on the dips when I do have some cash in my home exchange.

Mine and a lot of other people's goals here is just to accumulate...not to trade.

I'm not willing to sell short in order to try to make more back buying at a lower point....this is simply too risky for me.
Once bitcoins go in, they don't come out (except maybe to buy something online). 

We have been overbought all afternoon....starting to turn down now.
Let's see how this plays out as China wakes up...

Just the little problem of getting cash out of the last/sell exchange and into the first/buy exchange in a timely manner....

Yeah...the hardest part is the time lag and fee's moving your money around.

By the time you sell and pay the fee's, transfer the money out to your bank and pay those fee's, wait a few days / weeks in some cases to get it, transfer it back to the exchange to buy, pay those fee's, then buy and pay even more fee's.....you lost your arb opportunity.

Then you have money on Bitstamp.....how do you get it out? Bank transfer? Wire? I hope you don't like using your money for a week or two.

Then you have several fee's for buying/selling and wire transfers....and the price of bitcoin has changed so much in those two weeks that you don't know if you will win or lose money in the process.

Everyone who trades has gone through this thought process a hundred times...if it was easy all the exchanges would have the exact same price all the time.

$25 per $300 is not a big arb opportunity.

The 2x wire transfers cost twice that amount...ask your bank what they charge for a wire these days.

If you live in the USA the banks are basically stopping all international wire transfers person to person due to reg changes in Oct.
You literally can't wire money overseas any more from some US banks.


You may make some money on localbitcoins.com.....there may be an arb opportunity there if you can deposit back to your "buying" exchange quickly.

That "correction" just got swallowed by someone...so much for that.

Apparently either do Canadians. CAV is at $398 and people are buying.

China seems to be wedging upwards....interesting to see what happens when they test 2700 again.

Of course China doesn't use google....does Baidu have stats like google does?
That may tell us more right now.


Edit:
Even if we see an L5 (76.4%) retrace, right now it will just touch $300 according to my calcs.
(It would be more healthy and reasonable to see an L3 (50%) down to $343.)

High   421.97   
      
Low   265.01   
      
      
L1   0.00%   422.0
      
L2   38.20%   362.0
      
L3   50.00%   343.5
      
L4   61.80%   325.0
      
L5   76.40%   302.1
      
L6   100.00%   265.0


These are standard fibonacci retracement percentages (based on the current rally on Bitstamp).
Normally we see the retrace touch the 76.4% level briefly, it is safer to place your buys at the 50% and a few at the 61.8% levels.

As someone mentioned, it's a little like fishing...lot's of patience...you set your lines and go to sleep....wake in the morning to see what you caught.

Range is tightening up....higher lows each time we test the upper limit.

If I had to predict I'd say we are in for more upwards movement when China wakes up.

Edit: Just shy of oversold on the 1 hour chart as well....

We are so far oversold it isn't funny.

If there is another dump or wall it is just manipulation....someone is try to move the market to get more coins.

Just use rpetilia's simple plan for savings and you can relax and enjoy your money as it grows.

Don't be afraid to sell and cash out small number of coins according to a set "rake" plan.
No need to panic hold all the time, it's too stressful.

I especially like the part where a 2500 btc dump moves the price down for only 10 seconds.

Nice job spotting the pattern, but I think they are just classic head and shoulders...they repeat like that as levels of support and resistance are broken.

I don't think someone would program to generate a H&S, more likely they would program a bot to profit from one(s) already building based on the proportions.

I would say it's pretty messed up because of that one guys dump...looks more like a cup and handle.
I'm not exactly a pro at this either, there is a lot of interpretation when it is unclear like this.

Yeah, very true...I just do not see a motivation for a bot to create a H&S.
Unless the bot is trying to trigger people into thinking the price is about to go up...it could be manipulation, I wouldn't discount other people's motives at all right now.

We are now overbought...I think it will drop a bit before going up again.
(In the really short term...maybe this hour.)

The stupid thing is that you can't tumble that many coins without saturating the tumbler...you would have to somehow mix those coins into a mathematically significant volume of coins that they would be reasonably obscured....maybe 1m xbt(?) at 10:1.

Even then I think they would be traceable with some data visualization tools. The volume is just too big to move quickly.

That's the most clever thing I've read on here in a week.

Next up JesusCoin.

It will only be a hit with white MILFS though.

The PumpCoin Spice Latte.

Dude, we have a $750k capital gains personal exemption here in Canada....use it.  

Sorry...this is so off topic...

You own an investment, you bought it for X, sold it for 100X, you incurred an amount of capital gains and can claim part of your lifetime capital gains exemption.

http://www.cra-arc.gc.ca/tx/ndvdls/tpcs/ncm-tx/rtrn/cmpltng/ddctns/lns248-260/254/menu-eng.html

I thought it was pretty great...congrats.

I agree BitChick....that was awesome. If that happened in April I would just curl up in the fetal position and cry myself to sleep.

BTCChina is not down. I see trades running normally.
They are coming back up as fast as we did.

What time frame are you watching? Even on the 15min it is level. Nothing is dropping in China.

Zoom out to at least 15 min to 1hr minimum....it is idiotic to watch at less than that.

Actually zoom out to the 1day every night before you go to bed just so you can relax and see the big picture.

Here are the Fibonacci numbers for this long rally.

High   1242  
      
Low   212  
      
      
L1   0.00%   1242.0    ***Broken***
      
L2   38.20%   848.5     ***Broken***
      
L3   50.00%   727.0     ***Broken***
      
L4   61.80%   605.5    Will it Hold?
      
L5   76.40%   455.1
      
L6   100.00%   212.0

Yep, holding a shitload of fiat for when this bottoms.

Let's see if we touch $605, after that support is at $453.

I'm so fucking mad with them right now....I've sat and watched two frozen orders for 20 minutes plus while the price was rising and falling in the wrong direction.

For the amount of goddamn fee's we pay this shit should be flawless.

I swear they better offer to reimburse us for the fee's today or I'm out.
I don't care if my bitcoin are sitting in paperwallet's in the safe...it's better than risking it in a shit trading engine.

You guys are all arguing about the fib numbers...

High   1242   
      
Low   212   
      
      
L1   0.00%   1242.0
      
L2   38.20%   848.5
      
L3   50.00%   727.0
      
L4   61.80%   605.5
      
L5   76.40%   455.1
      
L6   100.00%   212.0

What is XRP? Is that what we are calling it lately?

No XBT anymore?

Who gives a shit about Ripple?
Why are we even discussing that in here?

Interesting it just broke the EMA100...and there is a 61M in the bid sum.

Ha, it was based on a phone survey....the only people I know who still use the phone are 60+ years old.

If the phone even rings in my house everyone looks at each other like "oh shit, who died" and no one wants to actually get up to answer it.

Just on MtGox we have $60m in bids....$60k in asks.

I believe it is easy to manipulate the price upwards with low buy volume but try to drop the price by selling...

There is none.

We can't tell if there is one entity with coins scattered across a thousand addresses...all they are doing is guessing at the distribution based on the coins in the largest addresses. We don't know if some of those are lost or irretrievable. It could be far worse or far better than the estimate.

They also count Satoshi's 1m coins as a part of that distribution....which is plausible, although most people believe we will never see those coins moved again.

The entire argument is irrelevant anyway....as it becomes an incentive those coins will redistribute from those large wallets to smaller and smaller wallets as they get sold or spent. If they never get moved, they have less and less influence on the bitcoin economy. (Other than determining scarcity.)

Adam, you of all people know we have to hit total despair before it will turn around...after the crash in April it didn't turn around until I basically said to myself "screw it, it's probably going to be worth nothing but I'm going to ride it into the fucking ground regardless", it was the epitome of despair, totally giving in the the fact that almost all of my investment was lost....and I was willing to throw it all away because I still believed in it...rather than sell at such a low value.

Until we hit the point where no one gives a shit if it goes lower, it won't go back up.
I think we are starting to see this in terms of no volume on the markets.

Well, we have been posting higher lows for a week now...

I wouldn't say that is true...I paid something a while ago to get your market reports.
Btw, where's the next update? It's been about a year you lazy guy.

I was about to ask what wall he was talking about....I guess it was pulled quickly.

Also, maybe I'm jaded but I don't considera couple thousand coins as a "wall"....in the old days a wall was like 10k coins, lol.

This will only turn around when every one of you loses complete hope....there is no pretending, the universe knows when you are faking it.

There can only be new hope when old hope no longer remains.

Adam...I didn't say to lose your bitcoins...I just said you have to lose hope.

So basically the same as Christianity without all the historical murdering and raping?

I'm good with that, they are pretty successful as cults go.

That was always the m.o. in the past...crash the exchanges and price quoting sites to scare the market...and then profit from the panic.

At 13.25 (+premium) I'll be ordering a monster box from Silvergoldbull....

@findftp

I think the time period for your peak prediction is a little short...would you agree?
That's only 2-4 weeks.

The last rise to peak was 7 weeks, before that it was 12 weeks.

I'd guess we are in for a longer period this time due to the lengthy time between peaks....we have some catching up to do to get back to trend.

Perhaps we will see a new peak before the new year if it is beginning now....that's 10 weeks away.

Here is what I have in my spreadsheet:
Today            Oct 14, 2014   2110   $3,058.58      0.600   $12,176.43   
FV Test  Date   Dec 2, 2014   2159   $4,296.43                 $17,104.41

So, what it's saying is that if it has already started...today's log10()trend value should be $3058, and we predict 7 weeks from today as the peak of log10() +0.600 above the trend of $17104.

log10() +0.600 is a conservative estimate, in the past we have gone log10() +1.7 above the trend but that seems unfathomable to me right now...because that would put us into numbers above $212k per btc.

Except mining 50 bitcoins with that device would take 170 weeks (or about 3 years) at the current difficulty...and we all know the difficulty won't go up for the next 3 years right?

Idiotic....the mining cost of a single bitcoin is far beyond the btc/usd exchange price right now.