Can someone please explain to me how the Kelly Criterion applies to cryptotrading, e.g. BTC on BTC-E

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IyATmCJf4fc

The formula is there, but how do I apply it?

The market rate has been steadily narrowing between MtGox and BitStamp over the past few weeks.

The current difference is <1%.

This seems to indicate there's not much movement of capital between the two exchanges as it costs at least 2% to rotate capital between these two exchanges.

We should be moving up.
I don't see any founded reasons why we are not. (disregarding past performance)
Either we make this a self-fulfilling prophecy or we move on. We didn't have any bad news, economy is (slowly)growing beyond SR and ASIC and we have prospect VC's joining the game. All this sounds bullish to me!
However people are afraid to move on because they look back at past performance factoring out new parameters;
they expect the capitulation of sub 50 coins. There has been no indicators that we need to go there. clearly people support 120 range. (drop due to fear of still being in bubble deflation) clearly support 100 range we have been going sideways for long...(in BTC world).
Why no move upwards? fear of still being in the bubble. If we all accept 100 being the new low we can go up again.
No one knows if a 100 is cheap or expensive (except for the bears, everything above 3 is...)
So if anyone has good reason why we need to drop further without playing the previous bubble as an example or any bubble for that matter I would gladly hear it.
Who says we are bubbling anyway? no parabolic growth going on lately. We corrected enough to sustain price. 180 might be a good price but no one knows...

If all the world uses bitcoin exactly as much as they use gold now, 1 bitcoin will be valued at $300,000.

EDIT: 109$ on Gox, 105$ on Bitstamp

not to mention in 2011 there was 2x more bitcoins produced than it is now, and way less people interested. I doubt we will be repeating 2011 post bubble, it will be more like 2012 one.

I'm on a big psilocybin and DMT research binge again right now.  Funny how it came up in this thread at the same time.

I've actually never done real psychedelics, only shitty legal ones a few times.  That might change in the near or not so near future, I don't know.  It just really interests me every once in a while, especially now that I have quit my physically and mentally killing IT career and gone back to school.

A group of researchers from Johns Hopkins School of Medicine led by Griffiths conducted a study to assess the immediate and long-term psychological effects of the psilocybin experience, using a modified version of the mystical experience questionnaire and a rigorous double-blind procedure.[141] When asked in an interview about the similarity of his work with Leary's, Griffiths explained the difference: "We are conducting rigorous, systematic research with psilocybin under carefully monitored conditions, a route which Dr. Leary abandoned in the early 1960s."[142] The National Institute of Drug Abuse-funded study, published in 2006, has been praised by experts for the soundness of its experimental design.[nb 6] In the experiment, 36 volunteers without prior experience with hallucinogens were given psilocybin and methylphenidate (Ritalin) in separate sessions; the methylphenidate sessions served as a control and psychoactive placebo. The degree of mystical experience was measured using a questionnaire developed by Ralph W. Hood;[143] 61% of subjects reported a "complete mystical experience" after their psilocybin session, while only 13% reported such an outcome after their experience with methylphenidate. Two months after taking psilocybin, 79% of the participants reported moderately to greatly increased life satisfaction and sense of well-being. About 36% of participants also had a strong to extreme "experience of fear" or dysphoria (i.e., a "bad trip") at some point during the psilocybin session (which was not reported by any subject during the methylphenidate session); about one-third of these (13% of the total) reported that this dysphoria dominated the entire session. These negative effects were reported to be easily managed by the researchers and did not have a lasting negative effect on the subject's sense of well-being.[144]

A follow-up study conducted 14 months after the original psilocybin session confirmed that participants continued to attribute deep personal meaning to the experience. Almost one-third of the subjects reported that the experience was the single most meaningful or spiritually significant event of their lives, and over two-thirds reported it among their five most spiritually significant events. About two-thirds indicated that the experience increased their sense of well-being or life satisfaction.[136] Similarly, in a recent (2010) web-based questionnaire study designed to investigate user perceptions of the benefits and harms of hallucinogenic drug use, 60% of the 503 psilocybin users reported that their use of psilocybin had a long-term positive impact on their sense of well-being.[45][124]

In 2011, Griffiths and colleagues published the results of further studies designed to learn more about the optimum psilocybin doses needed for positive life-changing experiences, while minimizing the chance of negative reactions. In a 14-month followup, the researchers found that 94% of the volunteers rated their experiences with the drug as one of the top five most spiritually significant of their lives (44% said it was the single most significant). None of the 90 sessions that took place throughout the study were rated as decreasing well-being or life satisfaction. Moreover, 89% reported positive changes in their behaviors as a result of the experiences. The conditions of the experimental design included a single drug experience a month, on a couch, in a living-room-like setting, with eye shades and carefully chosen music (classical and world music). As an additional precaution to guide the experience, as with the 2006 study, the 2011 study included a "monitor" or "guide" whom the volunteers supposedly trusted. The monitors provided gentle reassurance when the volunteers experienced anxiety. The volunteers and monitors all remained blind to the exact dosages for the sake of the experiment.[145]

It has  
http://blockchained.com/
Scroll down .. it's all there

Only ~200k of the 1.5m USD bid wall left, where did it go?

Someone asked about good btcchina ticker and I might have found it, there's alarm also! http://bitcointicker.co/

back to 200 within an hour.. watch

So you are the idiot who want's to buy 2'000 BTC urgently?

Litecoin is approaching a tenth of Bitcoin's market cap. That's probably too high given Litecoin's utility: hedge, tumbler, arbitrage instrument, testing ground for new ideas, and fallback in case of catastrophe. The market cap doesn't need to be much higher (as a % of BTC market cap) for those functions, except maybe hedging, so it won't be.

You can see the hedge function at work very clearly in the past few days: people want less exposure to Bitcoin but don't want fiat, so they buy altcoins. Once it's clear Bitcoin is again on the move upward, the coins will drain out of the alts and back into BTC. The altcoins are like Bitcoin's inflatable cushion. They reduce volatility and even existential risk.

does anyone know where i can find a graph of btc bid orders/ ask orders.  $35m vs BTC19,000 looks pretty bullish to me, but i want to see it on a chart

+2 euphoria votes, is silkroad back?

Ah ha, new wall @ 530.

How can it be partly pulled AND go to 620?

My opinion, bring on the negativity, is they should have donated ALL the SilkRoad
coins to a fund to be spread out proportionally to pay back all the MTGOX
victims.

Does anyone think the 600 sell wall will hold?