All posts made by cold013 in Bitcointalk's Wall Observer thread

Hello everyone, I don’t know if someone has noticed or not, but if you look at the graphs of growth of difficulty and price there is a discrepancy, namely:
ATH for the price we had on December 17, 2017, and ATH by hash rate and difficulty? September-October 2018.
We don’t see a correlation: the maximum difficulty is less than the BTC-more price.
From this we can conclude that people saw a high price and began to invest in equipment, this greatly increasing the growth of difficulty, most likely it was people with money, investors from outside the world of the crypt, who do not know the features of the industry and treat the crypt as an ordinary business (with all ROI and profit). Further, the complexity began to grow, and the price was not allowed to grow by the fact that a huge amount of BTC entered the market, which was sold at the current price and not HODL to pay back (return on investments) costs, wages and electricity. All this still coincided simply with the hamsters, who took at the peak, and then sold at the market cheaper.
The whole movement went on for a year and now it is coming to an end, the hash rate will fall very smoothly, investors sell asics by weight or they just stand and do not work. The market is improving, the supply no longer exceeds the demand at times, everything is leveling off, and with it the price will start to go up slowly.
I myself communicated with such investors, they wanted and offered to sell BTC immediately, every week / day, to pay for rent, wages, electricity. Why wait? "we have invested money, we suffer losses".
As a result, the price fell even faster and turned the equipment into scrap.
Now the process of recovery will take place and there will be growth to halving. But then everything will be repeated anew, but on other levels.

I stated it in my regional branch, I wonder what the experts say here
What do you think? I am interested in your opinion as a guru.

Quote from: Last of the V8s on February 21, 2019, 01:40:11 PM

not claiming guru status, but it's a lagging correlation. hashrate follows price, largely for the reasons you observe and postulate. note that mining is not the only factor in declining price. mining is an ordinary business, but what the newbies don't do is to plan for the inevitable downturn. note that miners are also affected by increasingly efficient asics coming to market. note that one huge factor in mining difficulty was the failures of bitmain, investing in BCH, and their wafers not working out twice.

(regional branch = local forum, complexity = difficulty, hamsters = retail traders/newbies (who bought at the top))

nice post, мoлoдэц

Thanks!
But I still think that the halving will be an indicator, the deficit will not go anywhere. Lets hodl

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