All posts made by durrrr in Bitcointalk's Wall Observer thread

Any thoughts on this one? News released today. This could crash the price hard. 385000BTC for $3M USD? what?

http://www.coindesk.com/us-government-sells-silk-road-users-seized-bitcoins-for-3-million/

if they sold 380,000 btc for 3m, that would be $12 each. - must be a portion, or Im missing out on some seriously 'cheap coins'

Well it's unlikely that they will sell 380,000BTC for the full $173M they are worth. Someone will get cheap coins

Bitcoins are fungible, so even if they don't get dumped on the market, other coins that would have otherwise gone to the purchasers of the seized coins will get dumped on the market. Mathematically it is irrelevant if the result is selling pressure or lack of buying pressure. There is a downward price effect on the market either way.

+1 Same goes for 200,000 Gox BTCs to be liquidated.

And US goverment has now more than 500,000 BTC ?!? 30+k from Silk Road, 130+ personal Ullbricht stash plus 385k from this new drug dealer?

This. The amount of seized BTC that has to be auctioned and dumped on the market is so high... At least 400K (GOX+Silk+others), if not more, probably sold well under $250 for each coin, ready to be dumped on the market at any point. Truth is, even a relatively small 20K dump could totally crash BTC's value to $50/coin.

I could literally wake up one day and see BTC's value drop 50%. This will kill BTC's long term value, seriously scary stuff

there will always be some sort of drop possibilty in the price. in reality even the usd could lose 50% of its value by tommarow morning and all hell would break lose. and if btc price did drop 50% i really think bitcoin would stay low and even crash. too many investers and not enough users.