Using my primitive trend detection skills I drew a picture...
http://i.imgur.com/GdlnBdVl.pngas everyone knows our nice huge beautiful triangle has been breached to the upside. Upper bound (1) needs to be redrawn (line 2 is an example, can also be drawn differently). Not so nice-looking any more.
I tried to draw some possible trends:
- small green channel: to enter short-term (3 day) uptrend we need to break $125
- red channel: to enter short-term (7 day) downtrend we need to break $80
- big green channel: to enter mid-term (4 weeks) uptrend, we need to break $166 (I didn't draw the green line for this one)
we might not enter a clear trend at all and just smurf along in the
yellow area.
So we will either have a short-term uptrend, mid-term uptrend, short-term down trend, or smurf along in more consolidation. Sounds like you got all your bases covered! In all seriousness you actually are right in a way. No one has any idea where we are headed!
anyone care to speculate what happens to all the orders from 80-90ish down to $10 if we don't start heading that way in the coming weeks?
My understanding, mostly from reading this thread filled with comments from bitcoiners who've been around longer than myself, is that cheap coins are wanted.
If cheap coins slowly become less of a possiblity, does this make expensive coins more attractive, or the price too high and fiat preferable?
I will just tell you something: we were buying $15 coins in January - and still placing our bids below spot to get "cheap" coins during dips.
Just 5 months later we want "cheap" coins in the $70s... Or.... Well... $90ish is cheap enough.
Take your own conclusions
EDIT: if I was not clear enough,
bitcoins are always preferable. Fiat's only use is to get cheap coins now that we can.
ok, that's pretty clear
I guess there is also a value based on a kind of sentimental attachment as well. Bitcoins exponential growth has no doubt been greatly benificial for early adopters. I can see how this, and the further potential growth of bitcoin would be quite compelling, especially when added to the idealism that surrounds the coin (for some).
I always stress that the whole "I missed the early adopters train" is BS. Anybody buying bitcoins today is still an early adopter. Look at the market, there are only $20M on the order book of the exchange that controls 80% of the market. The potential is HUGE, and we are at a very early stage. Understanding Bitcoins is time consuming. Buying for the first time is slow. Real economy is non existant, most of the revenues of BTC related business come from gambling, drugs or selling Bitcoin mining hardware. We are just at the gates of prime time.
I can guarantee you that those who bought bitcoins at $10 during the 2011 bear market where also repeating the same story about "early adopters". Just zoom out and look at the big picture.
+1
I also agree with you.
I would argue however that there is a large difference in sentiment towards bitcoin itself... the currency, the culture... the nostalgia and so on. I was wondering how this would affect orders and the tendancy towards buy back in at higher prices. When is too expensive...? - that sort of thing.
I certainly don't feel on a special train for non early adopters. It's just a fact. If I was there at the time, I probably would have left it behind to do something else. Only now is the TRUE potential being awakened and the rest of the world is watching, and even then, who knows. I am grateful to be involved in the experiment and very much hope it succeeds. Not just for my own personal gain (but that too of course).
I think the best way to look at the big picture is to ask yourself whether bitcoin will succeed or fail in the long term. Right now the hype is crazy, and for every person saying the price is going up, another is saying its going down. Hence why it is trading sideways.... no one knows!
I've been reading the old threads in this category, and the biggest losers are not those who stayed in while the price plummeted, it is those who listened to the bears, sold, and walked away! If you believe in a bright future for bitcoin, your best bet is to support it by buying BTC regularly, and spending them regularly! Much the same as you would support a company whose stock you own.
The biggest tests will come when the price falls dramatically and everyone is proclaiming that bitcoin is dead. Will you hold your ground, and buy more, or will you run for the hills as many have done in the last few years.
I know he isn't the most popular guy around here, but Warren Buffett has it right: "Be fearful when others are greedy, be greedy when others are fearful".
Just my 2 cents.
Ultrabull is the default character selection in the Bitcoin MMO. Pretty much everyone starts out as one.
Yeah, the ones who convert to the perma-bear side are the ones who already significantly cashed out - those really feel their butt hurt.
lol! rage quitting is no way to go through life
some bears are going to get burned ...severley
The odd thing is, if you think MtGox is about to get owned by the US Govt, you need to BUY bitcoins and move them off the exchange.
This was my thought too. This also leads to the theory that it's really just a couple guys trying to manipulate and buy back more coinage then they started with.
well lets wait how this ones playing out... I am holding this one for now
MtGox is a cancer on the Bitcoin ecosystem, it would be great long term news if people left there in droves. Like I said, buy bitcoins, move them off the site if you're actually scared. The last thing I'd go is have them wire me money, DHS could have told every bank in the US to freeze any incoming wires from them.
This all still seems a little iffy. I'm surprised Dwolla would mention lawsuits no one can find record of, and MtGox would have no idea (they still list Dwolla as a withdrawal method). Seems like poor taste by Dwolla (who's CEO has blogged his support of Bitcoin) to say it's now "illegal to deal with MtGox". A lawsuit doesn't make it illegal, the DHS orders if they exist also sound questionable. If it's not a hoax it's a poorly worded notification from Dwolla.
Regardless if MtGox worries you, move *coins* off the exchange, not fiat.
This is a dramatic development to say the least. My first thought is that it is due to the Coinbase lawsuit against GOX. Is this a move by the DOJ due to the court case, or is this a move by Homeland Security in relation to a money laundering investigation? Wow. I hope its due to the lawsuit. I am very glad I trade with CampBX. This could actually be great news if it is due to the lawsuit, as MT Gox having a monopoly over the bitcoin market is detrimental to bitcoins core philosophy of decentralization.
If you haven't yet, US residents should consider opening a CampBX account and transfer out of MT Gox. If you wish you can use my referral link to get a 10% lifetime discount of trading fees (disclosure: I get a 10% discount as well):
https://CampBX.com/register.php?r=X8IT0iRWMOAA more distributed exchange system would definitely help in the long run and contribute signifigantly to the stability of bitcoin..
however now i think a fair share of mtgoxs volume will get distributed to other exchanges even though they are shit..
The end of the MT Gox monopoly would be a great win-fall for bitcoin IMO
It's really not the Coinlab lawsuit. For that to be the case, Mt. Gox would have had to have:
1. Been served;
2. Replied to the complaint (If you don't reply to the complaint before the deadline you'll lose automatically when Plaintiff files a motion for default judgment, nothing happens until you reply); and
3. Coinlab's attorneys would have to have made an ex parte motion for an injunction (if it was a motion on notice it would be scheduled weeks in advance), and won.
Furthermore, I highly doubt DHS would be serving an injunction in a civil action.
You could see huge news about Gox's US operations being targeted by a DOJ complaint this week.
DOJ is under the DHS, right?. If this isn't in relation to the court case, then what?
If this isn't in relation to the court case, then what?
No telling, but it's not the first time DHS has shot first and asked questions later.
Perhaps they were alerted by suspicious transaction reports filed by Gox's U.S. banks or banks wiring to them in Japan. Gox has said that the amount of money flowing into the exchange has increased dramatically, and those kinds of changes to funds flow are certainly a red flag for bureaucrats.
That makes sense. However, for a court order DHS would need some strong evidence of illegal activity. The transfer of funds out of the country is by no means illegal, and neither is investing in bitcoin. I would bet this is related to an investigation into money laundering and/or MT Gox not operating in accordance with US laws.
I'll say again, if you want to cash out while in triple digits, move your ass.
I'm glad someone is making sense here. The crash from $266 to $50 was due on a denial of service attack on the MtGox website causing speculators to panic. Now we have a denial of funding by the most powerful country in the world, and even possibly the freezing of client funds, and we have only dropped from $119 to $109. The dramatic fall in price will come when buyers looking to move funds to bitcoin, then out of MtGox, have left.
Bitcoin will survive, and those are waiting on the sidelines when the dust settles will have the opportunity of a lifetime.
I'm really surprised this doesn't get mentioned more often, but, there are a lot of people out there now, wealthy people, early adopters and new players alike, that have vested interest and a genuine belief in this technology. The market is thin enough that these people can help ensure the price and volatility does not reach a level that could cause a level of panic which would create harm to its now escalating adoption.
The U.S. government is attacking this thing with flailing arms, and while it can scratch and do some superficial damage, the mark will be missed. This time, it really is up to the people.
Agreed. They are a few years too late in any endeavor to seriously attack bitcoin and not come off as tyrannical. The average Joe doesn't know what kind of power the banking cartel/monopoly has, and they certainly don't want him to wake up. They will tread carefully.
On a happier note, I transferred funds to Gox via Dwolla this morning. Hours later I get the DHS email. Regardless, they funded my account for the full amount just a little while ago. I doubt they want to loose customers over this.
Agree... And the key part here is that Bitcoin is now even more clearly te best way to move money. By cracking down on fiat movements (Dwolla), they can only make Bitcoin's perceived value as a medium of transfer increase. If the aim is to attack Bitcoin, this will prove to be a massive own goal.
Meanwhile, Bitcoins are now cheap, it's Wednesday, and Europe, which doesn't use Dwolla, is just waking up. Great time to buy.
Who is enjoy this!!! Complete recovery on the way?
How are you traders doing with this volatility?
I sold a few at 113 and could have bought in for 1.5 BTC profit, but barely missed it and only made .2 after panic buying before it got back to close to 113.
Made a 4.7% profit
And waiting to buy some at $100ish, and to buy big time sub $100
The Dwolla situation could scare the ass off some overinvested folks with trembling hands, anyhow this can improve a lot or get really worse depending on the next DHS move/explanation.
And from a practical point of view, you just do not convert an unseizable currency to one that will be likely be frozen. I never used Dwolla, but if I did last thing I would want is to get rid of my BTC for good at this moment, I guess people is just speculating that price will drop on these news and they want to buy back cheaper.
I think today's events will only increase the value of bitcoin, whatever the outcome. Bitcoin is decentralized! Closing down Dwolla and/or MtGox plays no barring in my opinion. In fact, the harder it is to buy bitcoins, the more valuable they become. The government has ZERO interest in bitcoins, just as they have ZERO interested in SimCity region fund transfers (did EA ever figure that out?). They DO however have an interest in protecting their citizens. It is not the bitcoin the DHS is after, it is companies who willfully ignore strict financial regulations.
Hope you don't wait too long down there at $100 and below Rampion.
