All posts made by marvinrouge in Bitcointalk.org's Wall Observer thread
1.
Post 2341822 (copy this link) (by marvinrouge) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.01h):
There was likely going to be a big upward rally on the 25th, but the Libery Reserve incident killed it. I'm still not ruling out a large price movement in the short term.
and why do you think this/what is this based on?
If a market is bias upward, and the price breaks support without crashing significantly, then that means it's likely to rebound strongly.
Many bitcoin forecasters anticipated a large rally before the 25th, and what's pushed down can hold a lot of unspent momentum.
Anyway the market is quiet since a while, everbody is waiting for the slightest move to buy or sell.
With 1M wall on the bearish exit, if it holds there is no other choice but to be bullish
2.
Post 2412512 (copy this link) (by marvinrouge) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.03h):
Speculators and traders thrive on volatility. Volatility is not good for bitcoin. Lack of volatility causes speculators to exit. Speculators exiting causes price to drop. Could be a good sign for the long-term health of bitcoin (I won't say "bullish").
Bitcoin needs to build fundamentals. That is what will drive its success.
-> Lack of volatility
-> Speculators exit
-> Price drop
-> Noobs AND speculators buy
-> Price rise
-> Speculators sell
-> Price drop
-> etc
3.
Post 2422654 (copy this link) (by marvinrouge) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.03h):
4.
Post 2590385 (copy this link) (by marvinrouge) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.07h):
Pressure's building, soon its going to go Pop!
Well we had a 40k green candle and the price didn't budge, so we are going to need some serious firepower.
Or maybe some skyrocketing without firepower
5.
Post 2590528 (copy this link) (by marvinrouge) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.07h):
6.
Post 2593592 (copy this link) (by marvinrouge) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.07h):
ghost town
We are all here
7.
Post 2594115 (copy this link) (by marvinrouge) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.07h):
there is also a strong divergence in the chaikin money flow
8.
Post 2594840 (copy this link) (by marvinrouge) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.07h):
Anyone think these circled patterns resemble (perhaps not exactly) symmetrical triangles on a falling price?
Not sure how accurate a 4hour chart is but I'd say we are about to break down a bit here...
yep! something will happen at the end of the triangle, but I don't think we can be 100% sure about a fall.. In the middle of your chart we can see also a triangle followed by a rise (between your 2d and 3d triangles)
9.
Post 2594893 (copy this link) (by marvinrouge) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.07h):
The only thing that can save your precious Bitcoin price now is another MtGox problem.
Mouhahahah!
I think the price will go up. I'm feeling bearish and I'm always wrong
10.
Post 2595074 (copy this link) (by marvinrouge) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.07h):
According to well-established sources:
If it keeps on raining
levee's going to break
nice metaphor
11.
Post 2643806 (copy this link) (by marvinrouge) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.08h):
Meanwhile, bitstamp doesn't give a shit anymore what MtGox does.
A possibility :
ALL the speculators on Bitstamp are already out.
Only remain the long term holders and investors who don't care about other exchange prices.
12.
Post 2644104 (copy this link) (by marvinrouge) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.08h):
I can feel the dump approaching...
Does anyone know if this is the furthest apart bids/asks and the price have ever been, while the price is higher than bids/asks? It looks a bit that way from the long term data....that's got to be (really) bad hasn't it?
(Noob) It´s a long time I see this chart and I still don t understand it... Can someone explain me what are the 4 lines ? (Sorry) Or giving a link if there is an explanation somehere else
13.
Post 2644228 (copy this link) (by marvinrouge) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.08h):
(Noob) It´s a long time I see this chart and I still don t understand it... Can someone explain me what are the 4 lines ? (Sorry) Or giving a link if there is an explanation somehere else
green squiggly line = dollars trying to be bitcoins
yellow squiggly line = bitcoins trying to be dollars
the ratio between them gives you an indication of whether folk are keener to sell or buy (red squiggly line). And it has a tendency to lead the price (blue squiggly line). Least, that's how I understand it.
Thanks !!
14.
Post 2647104 (copy this link) (by marvinrouge) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.08h):
I was actually thinking about selling out all of my 100btc but the trend is clearly reversing. So what now?
where do you see this
?
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg10zig2-hourztgSzm1g10zm2g21zl
15.
Post 2673139 (copy this link) (by marvinrouge) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.09h):
just because of your arbitrary hand-draw line ? The volume decrease, nothing tell us there is a new trend
16.
Post 2677442 (copy this link) (by marvinrouge) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.09h):
Would you like more such calls? I am thinking of opening a ''call'' thread or running a closed group for people interested in learning real-life TA, not semi TA-gibberish people learn from books.
Good idea
17.
Post 2677520 (copy this link) (by marvinrouge) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.09h):
it looks like on the 74 we do not have power yet???
Hmmm eaten
Isn't it the same operation than few minutes ago, but BIGGER ??
It smells manipulation
18.
Post 2677937 (copy this link) (by marvinrouge) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.09h):
thanks! how do you get to this ?
19.
Post 2689554 (copy this link) (by marvinrouge) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.09h):
It's a dragon
20.
Post 2708297 (copy this link) (by marvinrouge) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.10h):
I am not using TA from books in my trading, but looks like one of your bookish TA patterns might emerge (if the price goes above 88 first, then it will make a low at 84.84 or slightly lower, and then it will go above the so called triangle).
Why do you think it will be bullish ? I have no idea about the direction but the price went up very fast, is't a possibility to have a drop, even temporary ?
21.
Post 2709938 (copy this link) (by marvinrouge) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.10h):
goodbye 88 wall !!
22.
Post 2724831 (copy this link) (by marvinrouge) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.10h):
I hoped more value is in my charts
But seriously, if I were bullish (and missed all previous calls) I would place a BUY order between 91.03 and 89.68 and hoped that Mrs Market (there is no guarantee this will happen because Mrs market is getting more and more horny) will take me for a ride in a few hours.
There is a chance to have the buy order unfilled (and goodbye the wild ride
)
What make you so sure there will be a drop to 90 ? If Mrs Market is bullish, can't she go straight up ?
23.
Post 2730951 (copy this link) (by marvinrouge) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.10h):
93.00 - cheap. I would buy.
Risky... but I want to try
24.
Post 2733133 (copy this link) (by marvinrouge) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.10h):
off to go test 100, 105?
110
25.
Post 2734821 (copy this link) (by marvinrouge) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.10h):
I think you deserve an explanation of what happened yesterday:
WHO'S YOUR DADDY?
Thnaks for the call
26.
Post 2740764 (copy this link) (by marvinrouge) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.10h):
ETF experts estimate there are roughly four dozen APs in the market. These include: Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Barclays, BNP Paribas, Citigroup, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, KCG, Morgan Stanley, Nomura, Société Générale, UBS and Virtu Financial, which specialises in high-frequency trading.
The banks don't want to support Bitcoin ? What a scoop
27.
Post 2744934 (copy this link) (by marvinrouge) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.11h):
bear trap
(or bull trap?)
28.
Post 2745099 (copy this link) (by marvinrouge) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.11h):
bear trap
(or bull trap?)
Watch carefully and learn.
I try to put the piece together
- indecision, no move -> perfect time for a whale to be followed
- whale sell -> price fall to 96
- plancton panic sell -> giving cheap btc to whale
- whale buy -> price rise to 99.5
- plancton panic buy -> buy expensive the same btc they sold 5 minutes ago
29.
Post 2745139 (copy this link) (by marvinrouge) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.11h):
Well tried, but no.
two whales with opposing interests ?
30.
Post 2745153 (copy this link) (by marvinrouge) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.11h):
Well tried, but no.
two whales with opposing interests ?
Can there be so many whales in a small market like this?
The whale could eat walls both side -> "cleaning the road" before placing his own walls in the direction the whale want
31.
Post 2745236 (copy this link) (by marvinrouge) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.11h):
Well tried, but no.
Chart manipulation for newbies TA-fans
32.
Post 2820765 (copy this link) (by marvinrouge) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.12h):
ok...
33.
Post 2890440 (copy this link) (by marvinrouge) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.12h):
FYI First sets of walls gone. Everyone panic.
panic or stop loss, that's a point of view
34.
Post 2890478 (copy this link) (by marvinrouge) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.12h):
Too soon to panic.
yep, a reversal to a cup n handle is still a possibity (but I wouldn't bet on that, in any case)
35.
Post 2890514 (copy this link) (by marvinrouge) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.12h):
What is it with the steep UP! arrows out of nowhere with you guys? The market is slow right now and whenever we're going up or down it has to pick up momentum (and volume!) first do do anything.
There is always low volume before a big movement (up or down).
36.
Post 3114269 (copy this link) (by marvinrouge) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.15h):
WTF is going on ?
37.
Post 3114276 (copy this link) (by marvinrouge) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.15h):
I'm glad I bought 1 hour ago
38.
Post 3114337 (copy this link) (by marvinrouge) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.15h):
Maybe some big news ?
There was a lot of bullish rumors last weeks (ebay, paypal...)
One of them could be true
39.
Post 4167186 (copy this link) (by marvinrouge) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.47h):
Hi Guys!
I am currently trying to invest about a couple of bucks in Bitcoin, and have been reading up on all kinds of predictions and advice (dreams even) over the last couple of days to get an idea of how to do this.
I am not putting in more $ than I am prepared to lose, but considering it is still quite a bit of money to me (though it may be peanuts to some of you guys) I want to make an informed and rational plan and not buy at an ath this time. I know that when I start looking at trade charts and the news constantly I will only behave like the herd and lose coins instead of gaining (holding) them.
My guess is the price will go down some in the near future and, in the case of some more bad news from china or something, maybe even dip quite low. After that I presume it will rise again to new records. Since I'm buying I want to buy as low as possible of course, but I do not want to risk missing the boat completely before the price rises again.
So I came up with these orders on Bitstamp (lets say I want to invest a thousand bucks):
at $521/BTC buy .333BTC for $173.49
at $357/BTC buy .333BTC for $118.88
at $303/BTC buy .750BTC for $227.25
at $273/BTC buy 1.76BTC for $480.38
Comments are highly appreciated.
you're optimistic ! Even if you're right and bitcoin crashes, you have little chances to see your orders under 400 filled (so even if you're lucky you could end with almost no coins
Even if you're bearish you could think about what you would do if bitcoins doesnt go below 600 anymore (you would completely miss the boat)
40.
Post 4167647 (copy this link) (by marvinrouge) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_11.47h):
you're optimistic ! Even if you're right and bitcoin crashes, you have little chances to see your orders under 400 filled (so even if you're lucky you could end with almost no coins
Even if you're bearish you could think about what you would do if bitcoins doesnt go below 600 anymore (you would completely miss the boat)
I see what you mean. I should think about what happens if btc doesn't go below 600 anymore. Though, well, I really think it's way too high right now and below 600 should be probable. Thanks for the advice!
You don't understand. I don't tell you it's impossible for the price to go to 250 (or 400, or 600), but you seem not to even think about the
possibility of another scenario. In the summer when the price was at 65 many were waiting for 50 or 30 to buy. They bought at 110 or worse.
41.
Post 5173346 (copy this link) (by marvinrouge) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.10h):
Headlines tomorrow "Bitcoin failed experiment". "Bitcoin finished".
As usual
42.
Post 5572997 (copy this link) (by marvinrouge) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.25h):
10btc! That's fast !
43.
Post 5573340 (copy this link) (by marvinrouge) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.25h):
It would be so awesome if we would collect like 1000 BTC for Dorian, the old guy would be very happy and we would get lot of press for it.
"Bitcoin community collects million dollars for Satoshi Nakamoto"
1000btc I don't know but if the collect continue like this, 100btc is very possible
44.
Post 5597917 (copy this link) (by marvinrouge) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.25h):
How Leah McGrath Goodman discovered the real identity of Superman using forensic techniques:
Step 1. Make a list of all citizens of Metropolis whose name begins with "S" and ends with "man".
(Two days later, young reporter Lois Lane received a surprise call from the Daily Planet, offering her the job she had just been told that had been already filled.)
45.
Post 6045142 (copy this link) (by marvinrouge) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_12.32h):
That is it folks, we are observing the sunset of Bitcoin revolution. I think we could tell our future children about this massive experiment (i dont want to call it scam, because it was surely not planned to be one).
One more lesson for all of us, there are no easy money out of nowhere.You cant just "mine" 100 dollars overnight by doing nothing
Date Registered: December 25, 2013
I don't think you mined $100 overnight if you joined at the end of december 2013
46.
Post 9100549 (copy this link) (by marvinrouge) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.20h):
Funds coming in..or buyers figured it's time before the sale is over.
Could go rather quickly from here
Europe is waking up.
Now i can say it, last chance to get cheap coins lets get pics of trains ready
Pffffffoooo. I wake up 2 minutes before the big jump
Just the time to buy with all I had on Bitstamp
47.
Post 9189824 (copy this link) (by marvinrouge) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.23h):
Less than 2000 coins to break 400...
1789 coins !!
48.
Post 9190065 (copy this link) (by marvinrouge) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.23h):
the calm before the storm...
49.
Post 9190110 (copy this link) (by marvinrouge) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.23h):
We break 400 today?
1111 coins to 400!
50.
Post 9190123 (copy this link) (by marvinrouge) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.23h):
do you guys believe we will see 275 again?
or should i better buy now before its to late?
nobody knows but the whales
51.
Post 9190767 (copy this link) (by marvinrouge) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.23h):
WOOOOOOO
52.
Post 9221620 (copy this link) (by marvinrouge) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.24h):
Gentlemen, we have the mother of all inverse heads & shoulders
Buy now
+420 in 48 hours
53.
Post 9248798 (copy this link) (by marvinrouge) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.25h):
UP WE GO
54.
Post 9620163 (copy this link) (by marvinrouge) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.34h):
The market will not move much until the 50000 FBI coins have been sold.
then it will go up just like the last time when it was 30000 for sale
No , these coin will be sold out the exchange .. so the price will not be affected "too much".
If we learn the coins have been sold 50% more than the value of the exchanges, it WILL go up. BIG.
1) Tim Draper
wants this coins. It's his way to acquire lot of coins without moving the market and beyond that, his plan of communication (if people learn Tim Draper bought all the coins for the second time, every one will remeber the name of his exchange and take him seriously)... How much costs a full campaign of communication for the same result ?
2) The others participants, at the first auction, didn't know what to expect, they tried to get a discount. Now they
know that the battle will be hard to obtain the coins and if they really want them, they'll have to pay a serious price.
3) The price has declined during a whole year. During this time, bitcoin has been taken seriously by the banks/governements, infrastructure has been built. So the end of the decline may be soon. During the last bounce, we saw that everyone is ready to get in and has his mouse above the "buy" button. At each possible start of a new trend, everyone wants to buy. If big players enter during a rise, they'll have to pay minimum the double of the actual price. And they can't get in right now without moving the market. The interest of the big players is to enter now off exchange, no matter what price they pay.
Conclusion : Maybe the price will fall sort term, but the auction of the coins may be the initiating event of the next bubble
55.
Post 9709583 (copy this link) (by marvinrouge) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.36h):
This is eerie. 380 feels so good, but they might slaughter us tonight with this volume.
Realistically 380 isn't doing anybody any favours apart from very, very early adopters.
very, very early adopter of 2013 ? Last year the price was under $100 most of the year
56.
Post 9737118 (copy this link) (by marvinrouge) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.36h):
Big dump 1min before closing of the 4H candle = obvious manipulation
57.
Post 9747859 (copy this link) (by marvinrouge) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.37h):
Before today 10PM GMT, according to Pantera
58.
Post 9747929 (copy this link) (by marvinrouge) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.37h):
Before today 10PM GMT, according to Pantera
Or earlier...
Dan Morehead @dan_pantera · 13h 13 hours ago
Bidding closed for US Marshals #Bitcoin auction. Pantera placed bids below the market. Results out tomorrow by 2pm PST. Probably earlier.
if it's
before, it's earlier
59.
Post 9748349 (copy this link) (by marvinrouge) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.37h):
Bids received - 104
BTC quantity bid - 124,127
ähhh...what? i dont get it...somebody care to explain?
Barry Silbert / Secondmarket collected 104 bids for a total of 124,127 coins. They merged the bids and made new bids for the 50,000 bitcoins on the auction.
ouch
60.
Post 9748449 (copy this link) (by marvinrouge) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.37h):
If someone bid 1$ for all of those coins that alone is 50k "in bids"
Like secondmarket would even accept such a ridiculous bid. I think most of the bids are not far of the market price, maybe -20% max.
Secondmarket have for now 134K coin. 127K more buys would double their BTC stock
Even 20% below the price it's almost $40M
61.
Post 9748515 (copy this link) (by marvinrouge) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.37h):
If someone bid 1$ for all of those coins that alone is 50k "in bids"
Like secondmarket would even accept such a ridiculous bid. I think most of the bids are not far of the market price, maybe -20% max.
Secondmarket have for now 134K coin. 127K more buys would double their BTC stock
Even 20% below the price it's almost $40M
Ok, how many people here understand that you can't buy 127K BTC at an auction selling 50K BTC?
Of course they can't buy 127k (and maybe they'll buy 0 btc). But the demand is there.
62.
Post 9748597 (copy this link) (by marvinrouge) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.37h):
If someone bid 1$ for all of those coins that alone is 50k "in bids"
Like secondmarket would even accept such a ridiculous bid. I think most of the bids are not far of the market price, maybe -20% max.
Secondmarket have for now 134K coin.
127K more buys would double their BTC stock Even 20% below the price it's almost $40M
Ok, how many people here understand that you can't buy 127K BTC at an auction selling 50K BTC?
Of course they can't buy 127k. But the demand is there. There are people willing to buy for 127K btc
What does your bolded text mean?
Just comparing the demand and the amount of BTC bought until now. I agree these 127k do not exist yet.
63.
Post 10043643 (copy this link) (by marvinrouge) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.44h):
Bitstamp trading engine paused? No action for 15 mins...
Bitstamp Service Temporarily Suspended
We have reason to believe that one of Bitstamp’s operational wallets was compromised on January 4th, 2015.
As a security precaution against compromises Bitstamp only maintains a small fraction of customer bitcoins in online systems. Bitstamp maintains more than enough offline reserves to cover the compromised bitcoins.
IN THE MEANTIME, PLEASE DO NOT MAKE DEPOSITS TO PREVIOUSLY ISSUED BITCOIN DEPOSIT ADDRESSES. THEY CANNOT BE HONORED!
Customer deposits made prior to January 5th, 2015 9:00 UTC are fully covered by Bitstamp’s reserves. Deposits made to newly issued addresses provided after January 5th, 2015 9:00 UTC can be honored.
Bitstamp takes our security and soundness very seriously. In an excess of caution, we are suspending service as we continue to investigate. We will return to service and amend our security measures as appropriate.
Bitstamp Team
64.
Post 10056102 (copy this link) (by marvinrouge) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.44h):
So is there a rational explanation for what's happened here?
1. 19k coins have been stolen from stamp (how?) and were sold forcing the market to unprecedented lows.
2. Stamp has to buy these coins back.
3. Stamp is pulling a potential gox and is insolvent?
What's going on?
1. Hacker just waited for volatility and volume, so the crash was a great opportunity. He didn't sold anything.
2. If Bitstamp has some reserves in BTC, they don't have to buy back anything
3. The case may appear similar to Gox for many of you but it's similar to Bitcoin-central too (which finished well : they were hacked, said they would cover everyone losses, did it, and let everyone withdraw their balances).
65.
Post 10315791 (copy this link) (by marvinrouge) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_13.55h):
some one is trying their god damn best to crash the market but it just isnt happening lol
It looks more like they are trying to get out above 1400 CNY before it crashes.
Oh come on, it didn't look like it was going to crash at all before this okcoin kamikaze move, we've been bumping up from 1400 CNY / 220 USD long enough to see it wasn't going to drop lower any time soon. This Chinese "drop" looks highly artficial to me - only huge dumps without accompanying smaller drops. Seems like nobody really wants to follow.
From what I've observed, the amount of BTC to 220 USD on bitfinex got a little below 6k for a moment, now it's back at 6300. If it goes back to 10k after this flash crash attempt, it seems inevitable that we're going up.
I, for one, am going to sleep. All in BTC. Good night, gentlemen.
was thinking the exact same thing..
still, 5 red candles in a row :/
