They're not immune just because they're in Japan. Various interlocutories and especially Judgment in favour of the Plaintiff could easily result in Gox having to suspend trading privileges to US/Canadian clients.

The "good" part of the news is that a) lawsuits are very slow; and b) the more hopeless Gox's side of the case is the more likely they are to settle before shit gets real.

Yes, but think about what would happen if tomorrow Gox, the largest exchange, no longer allowed trading to all Canadian/US clients. It would pretty much be what happened to online poker after UIGEA, at least until someone sets up a legitimate, trustworthy exchange and establishes it as the new #1. Thus, it's a non-trivial lawsuit imo.

In a lot of jurisdictions you can file a Claim and have several months before you have to serve it. This is usually done to try to leverage your position without having to go through with the trouble of actually starting a suit since the clocks on response, examinations etc don't start to tick until after service. That would also be why you don't see an announcement on Coinlab's site. It's entirely possible that they'd rather get what they want out of Gox than burn years and millions of dollars in court.

As for it not showing up on searches, it was supposedly filed today. I highly doubt any North American court system is so efficient that online searches are updated within hours of pleadings being filed. This is especially true if the suit was filed near the end of the day.

Anyone should be able to order a copy of the pleadings when the court house opens tomorrow if they exist. I suppose it will be clear then.

Apparently is legit: http://coinlab.com/status

You almost definitely don't have to worry about account freezes if you're a US/Canadian account holder at Gox. The suit was only filed today. It hasn't been served, it hasn't been replied to, it hasn't moved forward at all.

Law suits take a very long time. I would expect the worst case scenario for Gox suspending trading activity to US/Canadian customers to be a few months down the road if Coinlab files and wins a motion for an injunction forcing Gox to suspend trading activity until the suit has been settled, but I have no idea if that is even possible in this jurisdiction or if Coinlab would even have grounds.

That fake China hype is all over these forums too.

That CCTV report is totally someone within the CCP who has a large position in BTC running a pump and dump. Taking anything that comes out of a totalitarian regime's propaganda ministry with anything less than a huge, huge grain of salt is a major mistake.

People really need to give the China bullshit some thought. Absolutely nothing material has changed since that article aired. Gox's banks are still closed until *Tuesday and it's Saturday in China, too. It's not that simple to get millions of USD in fiat onto the exchanges.

Furthermore, the outright majority of Chinese people are destitute and impoverished. It's like ~600-700 Yuan for one BTC. The only people in China who can play the game are the affluent, and the affluent are all connected to the CCP: http://www.forbes.com/2011/09/14/china-rich-lists-opinions-contributors-john-lee.html

We saw _one_ sell off as a result of the Coinlab v. Gox lawsuit. _One_ dip into the 80s that didn't even last two hours, and that suit can outright destroy the world's only high volume BTC exchange. But for this pile of shit spat out of the CCP's Propaganda Ministry, people lose their sense of reason thinking that within hours of it airing that it switches the state of affairs from bear to bull.

Outright retarded. Humans are trivial to play.

If the CCP's Propaganda Ministry is hyping BTC you can bet your ass you're amidst a pump. It's not some noble endorsement of new technology by the Party's "broad minded" leaders, it's a play. Nothing that comes out of that regime should be taken at face value. It's not a normal government and not a normal society.

Sage.

I guess we'll find out how fake the wall is if someone ships in a 3k market sell and we drop beneath 110.

Not a lot of bounce back when testing 110.

This downtime needs at least an hour or it won't even extend through people's naps.

It's because it was like 15 minutes of downtime on a no-volume day. I mean, a 200 BTC market buy pushed it from 109 to 112.

Only because volume is so low.

Extended periods of low volume slowly creep up until the situation becomes characterized by a large market order. Market hasn't shown any willingness to break 116 since the last time it was 120 and 114 is also 12 hours behind us.


30k depth to 100 may be the only thing stopping the market sells

Tbh I think people are overestimating last night's mild DDOS. The API was unresponsive and the website down for like 15 minutes two times with a five minutes gap in between. It was already a period of extremely low volume. When it came back up the most notable thing was that a 200 BTC market buy drove the price up from 109 to 112 since asks were barren after the ~1kish dump that took it below 110.

You can't draw many meaningful conclusions amidst a no volume phase.

Bitcoin's fundamental protocol is really good and really sound. The problems Bitcoin has had revolve around shitty businesses/scammers. Once BTC starts to get supported by more companies like Coinbase/Bitpay we'll see $1000USD/BTC np and the trading scale will switch to mBTC right away.

Only way Bitcoin fails is if governments seriously saboteur it by preventing banks from processing fiat transactions in relation to it, but the gamble is that once the establishment tries to assault Bitcoin, the counter force and backlash will serve to propel Bitcoin to the level of a household name and away we go.

We're sitting in the long-term bear trap of Bitcoin right now, that time where everyone is unclear if they should get on the boat and where everyone is unclear if Bitcoin will succeed or fail. Once a positive outcome becomes obvious, the opportunity to get in profitably will be lost.

In reality right now you can buy at any price, including the bubble high, and not be wrong. It's just that you may have to hold your coins for several months or a year before you can realize your equity.

Bitcoin's value as a currency for real world goods right now is entirely contingent on its rate of exchange to USD. It lacks the large scale, mass adoption to be used as a currency all on its own at this time. However, even if one were to buy it to use as a currency, they would still be better holding and waiting for the price to increase before spending.

Some people in BTC communities seem to get upset if you want to buy Bitcoins for a reason besides using them as a currency, as if it defiles the purity of Bitcoin's original intention, but it's not realistic. BTC would still be sub $30 USD if people were buying it exclusively to use as a currency, and it would probably stay there forever. It gets to establish itself as a sovereign currency only after it goes through a phase wherein people establish its value by backing it with their own fiat, whether for investment or speculation or a use as currency.

An unestablished crypto currency will simply not gain the consideration of the population-at-large without going through such a process at this stage in history. The reason is because this is the first time in history there has been a crypto currency. People don't know or understand what it is or how it works, why it isn't a scam, or why it isn't a scheme. People are used to dealing with fiat or metals. Fiat and gold were/are only worth something because people vested value in them, and that too, took a process. It's just that the process is a hundred or a thousand or more years behind us.

With cryptos, that process is unfolding while we sit here typing to each other.

Put fourkey on ignore before rptelia.

There's really been very little support above 114-115 all week with the exception of the mega buys that drove it from 113 to 122 overnight.

That's because the market has been characterized by low volume for 5+ days. When it did pick up action, it was during a pump and has dwindled down ever since. The market is not exactly bullish.

1300 BTC wall (which is a huge wall by recent volume's standards) just went up at 118.19 before a 500 BTC sell off. After sell off it moves to 117.89.

I've been thinking the last few days that with the ask depth being piled up so high and prices not able to make any real progress beyond 118, any large downward movement, something that took the price down to 103-104, in the market could trigger a cascade of stop-loss and panic sells as people look for an exit fearing prices won't rebound.

I wonder what the Court Orders from DHS and the District Court of Maryland actually consist of.

Dwolla isn't important, but if there's a Court Order that prevents Dwolla from interacting with Gox to US customers you can bet it will affect more than Dwolla.

Whatever Court Order caused this is unlikely to be related to the Coinlab suit. Gox would have at least 30 days to reply after service and there's no way Coinlab would win a motion for an injunction against Gox before Gox had even submitted their Defense to the Court.

In fairness, Court Orders targeting Gox accounts in the US could be really, really big news.

Woot for volume though.

It's really not the Coinlab lawsuit. For that to be the case, Mt. Gox would have had to have:

1. Been served;
2. Replied to the complaint (If you don't reply to the complaint before the deadline you'll lose automatically when Plaintiff files a motion for default judgment, nothing happens until you reply); and
3. Coinlab's attorneys would have to have made an ex parte motion for an injunction (if it was a motion on notice it would be scheduled weeks in advance), and won.

Furthermore, I highly doubt DHS would be serving an injunction in a civil action.

You could see huge news about Gox's US operations being targeted by a DOJ complaint this week.

Facts are if the move on Gox comes from the US Government and severely interferes/destroys Gox's ability to process US transactions then you're going to see this "amazing" phenomenon amount to one massive bull trap within 48 hours.

If DHS served a Court Order obtained in US Court in Maryland that is not related to a civil action, then it's most likely an Order resulting from a criminal complaint by some US Government body against Gox.

I can't imagine any other scenarios for DHS to serve an Order to a payment processor requiring they cease business with Gox's US arm.

You've only heard it from Dwolla. DHS serving a US District Court Order preventing Dwolla, but no other institutions, from doing business with Gox's US arm? Possible, but unlikely imo.

If there's a real show of force against Gox in the US when business opens tomorrow, we'll definitely be seeing sub $100 for sure imo.

Do you think it will go that far in the absence of additional news tonight? I was thinking steam would run out around the 105 walls at best in the absence of any additional multi-thousand BTC sell offs.

I think if the US Government was going to seize everything of Gox's they would do it suddenly and all in one shot like they did with online poker during "Black Friday". Telegraphing their intention via obtaining an order for seizure means it's a tribulation less severe than the total destruction of Gox imo.

CampBX with Dwolla troubles too: https://www.facebook.com/CampBX/posts/593750063970782

Someone looked it up and couldn't find it. Came to the conclusion it was filed under seal.

If there's bigger news in the morning about DHS launching criminal proceedings against Gox, yesterday's downswing will look mild. If the biggest BTC exchange loses the ability to do business with US clients, that's a _huge_ problem, and not at all a case of having weak hands or being too bearish.

People who are being so super bullish despite the US Government telegraphing their intention to do something about Bitcoin should strongly consider protecting their stack. If shit really goes down, it will be a real $110 to $70 drop and you may never see the buying pressure return. Shit gets real at this point in BTC's evolution.

Enduring an assault by the Government on Bitcoin is an inevitability. If it passes the test, BTC will become a household name with widespread adoption. If it fails the test, it will be relegated to black market style dealings.

Really, the test has more to do with Bitcoin businesses doing everything on the above board. The Bitcoin protocol is fundamentally solid and good, and this is why BTC has a very large chance to survive.

If Gox lied about being a money transmitter in one account, what about all the others? The problem is non-trivial.

Gox www lagging hard/API unresponsive/broken for anyone else?

5 Mega into Coinbase wasn't too shabby honestly.

Not hard to lose the image battle when you get targeted by shithouse journalism. In BTC's case though, press coverage is press coverage right now. They can say what they want, but the fundamentals of the Bitcoin system are sound, and that's what will prevail.

Wallmaster with 3.5k on 114.59 holding the price down.

You're severely overestimating the effect of propagandized rhetoric in today's world. This isn't 2001 anymore.

I'm heavily in favour of evaluating the risk of an assault by the US Government, but the reality is today a large scale assault on Bitcoin will only serve to propel it into the mainstream because once the counter-forces in society start to ask the question "What really _is_ Bitcoin?" they will investigate it in all due seriousness and find that the fundamental protocol and idea is excellent and solid.

It will actually serve to help Bitcoin in the medium and long term. It will def crash the price on Gox in the short term though.

OANDA adds Bitcoin to their Currency Converter

http://www.oanda.com/corp/forex-lab-notes/2013/apr/22/why-we-added-bitcoin-oanda-currency-converter-1920/

Laughs. I'm awful.

When the DOJ seized FTP and Stars it happened suddenly, all at once. That's why the event is called "Black Friday". There wasn't any telegraph in advance. Once the DOJ unsealed their case and obtained their warrants for seizure they simply collected everything of FTP's and left the building.

The fact that DHS only went after Gox's Dwolla account is very good in regards to there not being a total catastrophe.

Real question is when we test 125, which failed 3 times when the market was more bullish 1.5-2 weeks ago, will we break through?

I think the 120 wall gets bought for sure. Market sentiment is very different than it was pre-Dwolla drama where resistance resisted. The real test for the last 3 weeks is 125.

IMO whoever was converting all their fiat to BTC and moving it off Gox would have done it during/after the immediate sell off, with the late-to-the-party group doing it before/immediately after that 4 hour DDOS.

Panic/danger sentiment is down and the price is up, so it's much less likely for Gox exodus to be the cause.

Market showed an immense amount of support for 110-115 after the panic news, the red candles, and the DDOS. I think that's why sentiment is more bullish.

EFF accepting BTC is pretty major. Even though they're careful to distance themselves from endorsing or supporting the currency, this is definitely the first stage to having them as a defender in the case of a legislative assault on Bitcoin.

Winklevoss are shipping 1.5 Mega to Bitinstant

http://techcrunch.com/2013/05/17/with-1-5m-led-by-winklevoss-capital-bitinstant-aims-to-be-the-go-to-site-to-buy-and-sell-bitcoins/

1k buy cleared out most of the asks to 125.

1k wall up at 123 now. Action soon maybe?

1k wall moved from 123 to 124.

It works on Bitfinex because there's a pool of USD and BTC that's lent on a P2P system in exchange for interest. USD interest is very high and BTC interest is very low.

It's ~16k BTC to 115 and 130. If it weren't a period of super low volume we might already be seeing tests of 130.

Market is showing support at 120, which is a good sign if bullish.

LTC is the only alt worth buying. Every single other one is a joke for any purposes beyond 0-day or total pump and dump manipulation.

ITT: Missing the point because mad at the mention of God and channeling the spirit of r/atheism.

All the anti-establishment types will hate their life when Bitcoin truly becomes mainstream because then it will be governed by law and traded by banks and investment firms while it lives harmoniously alongside national fiats. Heck, it'll probably be traded on Forex.

Bitcoin replacing fiat is at least one generation away. Furthermore, if it does replace fiat it will just be the new fiat unless the powers-that-be are replaced by people with some moral integrity and beliefs in governing a country for future generations, which has approximately 0% chance of happening at the present time.

Once cryptos really become big they'll either have to come in line with society's realities or they'll be sieged relentlessly and then you can forget about widespread adoption in less than a 20 year time frame.

The real wall master is at BTC-E. 900BTC @~116.30

When market was absolutely stagnant last week it only moved after the DHS seizure order news, but it still took 20-30 minutes before the swing started.

Something has to make people trade again.

That's the thing about China, you can get wiped out by the CCP at any time, and once it begins you can't do anything about it. People who are throwing huge sums of BTC into Asic Miner shares don't seem to realize that. The risk of ruin from being totally wiped out in an AM investment is multiple times higher than being totally wiped out in a straight BTC investment is. But people are thrilled to get 0.02B in dividends, so they get what they deserve.

I seriously doubt the coin exodus is still happening this long after the Dwolla news. The pattern it's following from 125-130+ is the same it followed from 115-120+. When the big players want to move the market, volume moves with it. When the big players don't move the market, volume stagnates.  

Humans tend to be complacent, greedy assholes when nothing is around to make them feel as if they have to do better for their self interest.

In summary, it's because Gox has no real competition, so they're content to just do whatever since there's no reckoning to face if they do poorly.

Last 9 H4 candles have been green.

Pretty bullish.

Speaking of BFX, you can tell how long everyone is from how ridiculous the P2P interest rates on USD loans are. Leveraging $1,000 is more expensive (99%) than the variable interest rate (78%), which had an extra ~$90k available in it yesterday. When the price was ~115 you could leverage like 10k for ~25-30%.

Will be a real calamity if someone dumps the price back to $105.

Imo bank cycles mean relatively little in the BTC market now that volume and hype have cooled off so dramatically. A few people wiring a few thousand bucks here and there are totally unable to move the market.

120-125 followed a similar pattern of apparent stagnation/decline before it got pumped to 126-128 iirc.

It's really up to the individual. You can set hard limits at the level of "an amount where if you lost it you'd be bankrupt/in serious trouble" etc, but for each individual what they're comfortable with risking on an investment/speculation, what they can recover, and what they can mentally and emotionally endure are all different for each person.

General principle: don't invest an amount where if you lose it your life will change for the worse in significant ways.

US Government making a move on Bitcoin is inevitable. The telegraphing thereof has already begun. Bitcoin has to survive the tribulation if it wants global adoption. If it doesn't survive, it'll fall into obscurity or be marginalized.

Thinking that the Government is okay with Bitcoin is not very wise. The only reason that Bitcoin is a high risk investment, in my opinion, is the huge risk of getting black swaned by authorities at one point or another. As Bitcoin grows more and more popular it will attract more and more attention from lobbyists. Lobbyists pay politicians in exchange for laws in favour of their position being passed.

Dreams of $1,000/BTC coming to fruition are totally in vain if Bitcoin can't establish itself in the cultural mainstream. Those who control society will simply suffocate the exchange of fiat for BTC if that condition can't be met, and Bitcoin will never, ever become a standalone currency without going through a period wherein its value is established in relation to fiat for the simple reason that you can't live on BTC itself right now or any point in the short/medium future.

Finland/Canada et al. are very small players compared to the US Government in regard to what kind of black swan event you'll see during an assault. If Finland or Canada assaults BTC maybe you'll see someone sell 10k coins and it will blow over like Dwolla. If the US Government does, we'll see sub 50 in the long term.

Also, they say they're fine with it today. When it's a considerably more obvious threat to the position of lobbyists, expect the position to do a total 180.

The problem is there's not any real bullish momentum in the market. The market moves up when someone with 7 figures decides to push it up. It's not moving up as a real result of supply < demand. If you watch the order book for 10 minutes you'll see how much of the already stagnant volume is only coming from market maker bots. The price wouldn't even be above 120 right now if it weren't for the aforementioned phenomena.

However, the price isn't going to go down until the same small pool of players with deep pockets decide to dump.

But it's been this way almost all month, so what can you do.

No, but you can discern a bit from the interest rates and sum available for loan. During the 110-115 stagnation there were tens of thousands of dollars in fiat sub 40%. Before Monday's dump the only decent interest rate was the variable interest rate (69%). You can also tell from how many people are trying to set limit orders for borrows.

Borrowing BTC to short has been really cheap in the last 3 weeks. At one point you could borrow like 400B for 2%.

It doesn't do much now, but you used to be able to route buy/sell orders to Gox on BFX. They removed Gox routes after the Dwolla seizure though, so it's just Bitstamp and BFX's internal book now. At least BFX is 0.1% rake and 0.25% on Bitstamp.

Bot fight had us touch 130.00.

Buckle. Up.

The aggrandizing of the US Government's "triumph over evil in defense of the people" in the Liberty Reserve business is about the same bullshit they pulled with poker on Black Friday. Of course, in fairness, Full Tilt thought it was amusing to spend out of the funds held in trust for the players, so they were evil, but that is mostly irrelevant because what they went after FTP for was circumventing UIGEA. The rest of it was just public relations icing.

Someone just bought the 400B "wall" at 130.

Exciting times.

Honestly I think if bots were gone in the long term we'd see the price totally collapse. There's no volume in the market, it just heads in whatever direction the nearest large buy/sell takes it while market maker bots give the impression that trades are happening. It's not exactly bullish. The only reason there aren't huge sells is because people are waiting for 135+ to dump everything they own while everyone who wants to buy is setting orders at 125 and below and waiting for a dump.

I miss the vibrance of the market in April/early May.

If that wall goes down and someone dumps we may see 120 fall, especially if everyone buying at 129+ capitulates. All the depth on the bid side above the wall is pretty much insignificant bot spam.

This current bearish trend isn't going to stop until the price falls to the point that the market regains its previously reasonable trading volume. Most of May was characterized by no-volume "stability", with the price only floating 110+ because of systematic large buys by major players coupled with bot action producing an illusion of trading volume during periods of no-volume. The roll to 135 was nothing like the roll from 110-165 in post-crash April, where volume was high, there was constant trading, and Gox still had a deep verification queue with millions in fiat being wired while almost nothing got withdrawn.

This fall will have a lot of bull traps with people feeling that lower lows are cheap coins.

BTC was absolutely not post-bubble "stable" 110+ amidst no trading volume after trading for the rest of its existence sub $50. It's just currently an incredibly manipulated market where anyone with a few mega can have a huge short-term influence that produces illusions for smaller positions and makes money for their own.

Either that 105 wall will fall today and we'll see ~97 be touched or 105 will be touched/rebounded off of as it bounces between 106 and 111 until the bid momentum vanishes by Sunday/Monday and someone dumps 25k BTC again.

Maybe it would be if the market had any volume, but since mid April/early May the market moves exclusively at the whims of traders who have 6 or 7 figures. There's little to no combined influence from a multitude of smaller players to offset the manipulation attempts of traders with huge amounts of fiat on the exchanges. People with a few thousand or a few tens of thousands of dollars can't move the market. Their combined activity can, but as individuals, they can't. So when volume is low and the price just sits there, whether a trade is profitable or not comes down to what move the whales make, because there's no market momentum because nobody wants to trade when the price is above 100 unless it's rippling from a large move. You can't tell what move one or two people with that much manipulative ability are going to make via TA.

The run we just went through to 135 after the 60-166-79 correction, once it rallied above 105ish, only happened because one or a few people would show up in the early morning or the middle of the night and shove the market up with a 5,000BTC buy, let the market settle, and then do it again the next day or the day after that. The moves raised the price because speculators decided to take a shot on riding the train, that kind of a move doesn't incite a panic sell, and the other whales won't dump against you because it's more profitable to wait for the combined momentum of smaller players who are buying to fizzle out before dumping. It is pretty much exactly what has been happening since the dumps below 120 last week as well.

The market doesn't have confidence in the price above $100, period. The only reason it's been floating here since the post-166 correction is because the market is entirely speculation and bots. Bots give the illusion that trades are happening and the market is moving upward and a whale comes behind that illusion (probably because it's his bot) and plays against it. Low volume is very dangerous.

If people thought the price was profitable we'd see the kind of volume you see between 80-90-100. People are only buying right now because they're short term speculating, exchanging B for fiat for their business, or buying and holding and not giving a fuck about what happens on smaller time frames. The price isn't dropping because a few people with 20 or 200B simply can't affect market depth.

And even when they all sell at once and do affect market depth, you still get phenomena like the other day when someone showed up and bought 15kB from 101 to 111.

Under this kind of circumstance a hard, downward, long term correction is inevitable and it's only a question of how to make money in the interim.

Manipulation like this is actually very damaging to the market because when the correction does come and it makes the news, it makes a lot of the potential newcomers to Bitcoin feel the whole system is a fraudulent scam. You only saw the massive swing from doubles to 250+ because of a huge influx of new players. If that phenomenon never happens again, you can completely forget about ever seeing $200B again, let alone higher.

110 is the new 135.

Honestly, I'm just happy to see more than 100B an hour be traded for the first time in 3 days.

In my opinion, until there's another large event that brings a ton of new blood into BTC, we're going to see long-term sub-100. No volume is simply not a bullish market, so if the price stays high amidst no volume it's always because of whales making large moves, but whales can't sustain a market by themselves in the long term.

People wanting the price to go down so they can buy "cheap coins" are not looking at it correctly. It's all a very relative thing.

$50 coins are exceptionally profitable under the condition wherein the price rebounds, but so are $200 coins if the price skyrockets.

However, $50 coins may bankrupt you if the market never recovers.

I think Bitstamp is likely to drop harder than Gox during drops because of shorting via BFX.

Bitcoin isn't really a sinking ship, it's just still overvalued from the bubble. Expecting the price to stabilize from what it was early in the year to $100+ without a large, sustained influx of new buyers is just not realistic.

Last two times there's been a Gox break it's come back up and market hasn't flinched.

Maybe we'll get a dump this time. No volume is boring.

Friday or Saturday night showed a major buy that spiked price temporarily into mid 103, but market showed no momentum after that and was characterized by sell offs. This was also only a 1k buy.

I would look for considerably more confirmation before having any faith at all in price rising to even 105, let alone surviving 105 without being met by large sells.

There hasn't been any natural momentum to the market above $90 since immediately after the bubble. The last time the price crashed to 79 and eventually rose to 135 it was pushed up entirely by large buy orders appearing from time to time. There is nothing "normal" about this market. Amidst no volume, the price neither drops nor rises until a large player makes a move.

Making money as a speculator revolves around correctly anticipating the manipulation.

A push to 110+, or a wall to sell off at 102+ before a dump?

I have a really hard time believing that wall at 108.50 is real. I fully expect it to be the tactic wherein the wall owner sells BTC to the buys in front of it, pulls it when momentum drops, and then dumps.

When there's utterly zero volume at 98-101, this is no rally. The only place a rally can come from in this no-volume market is from whales manipulating the market with large buy orders. This isn't like it was in March-April-early May where Gox had millions a week being wired to it and the market had natural buying pressure from a large variety of players. Most of the newcomers lost their shirts to the whales buying at 200+ during the bubble and 150+ in the ripple immediately after.

As speculators, people should be thinking about how to make money from the manipulation without feeding the whales. Thinking that this is a true valuation of BTC is utterly foolish in my opinion.

I think those consecutive 200B dumps are people holding moderate positions exiting their position because they don't believe in $110+ before a dump to like $104.

I don't believe in it either, but I think manipulation will have us see 120 "stable" by Friday.

I still think it gets whaled up to like 118-119 tomorrow, stabilizes around 115-116 for a few days and then whaled into 130 and maybe 140 before dumped for the beginning of the month.

I literally just woke up from a nap.

Holy shit what action.

Almost no Gox lag at that ridiculous volume is definitely not how it used to be. You used to get like 30s of trade engine lag for at least 2 minutes every 2k BTC sell off.

Sandwiched between two walls at 104.85~ and 105.01

How amusing

88 is a 30 day low and we're almost there. No buying pressure at 94-95 is ultra bearish. No buying pressure at 89-91 after a huge dump is also very bearish.

I really would not be surprised to see BTC hit stable 60-70 either this month or August. Unless a lot of new blood comes into the market there's no chance we'll be seeing 150+ again, and the last time a lot of new blood got brought into the market it got raped by whales in their pump and dump scheme.

Long term super bullish is still correct imo, but it's going to take a lot more than the absolutely nothing that is happening with Bitcoin right now to start to reach even the beginning stages of widespread adoption.

Mid-low 80s minimum before we see sustained buying pressure again I guess.

$79 is the after-the-bubble-retraced-$60-to-$150 low. Looks like it's pretty much an inevitability now.

Tomorrow is the two week mark for Gox USD withdraws isn't it.

You _could_ short on BFX, routing to Bitstamp, but Bitstamp market depth is nothing like Gox, so....

I'm of the opinion this downtrend is simply manipulation so whales can scoop up thousands of cheap coins and replenish their inventory. Sells have come to kill every rally attempt since 90s, while BTC had equivalently little/no trading volume when it was 110-135, but continued to be pushed up by periodic large buys.

The downside is it's apparent that between Gox troubles, post bubble, and manipulation that a ton of the new blood that entered the market has either left the market or lost their shirts. Whales get rich by breaking novices, after all. In a zero-sum game, your +500% profit is paid for by the counter-party to your winning trades. Thus, short of betting on manipulation raising the price, I have no idea where bullish momentum will come from until the next bubble phenomenon.

Cryptos look very bleak right now, and are very, very far away from any sort of meaningful mass adoption. People who think BTC will be $300 by December are most likely fantasizing. Revisiting $150 again this year is also rather unlikely to happen.

BTC needs new blood that doesn't get auto-bankrupted in order to bloom. In a tiny market like this, any early adopter or speculator with 7 figures can absolutely trash smaller positions at-will, with only the people who are buy-and-holding not being affected.

I would be cautious of thinking we're "holding up" here. Volume has been atrocious even in the 70s. The first time there was real buying pressure after the drop to 90 was after 71, and that was only for 3-4 hours yesterday before it got shit on hard after touching 84, followed by no-volume all day.

If it stagnates in low 70s you can pretty much set your watch to dumps. If it falls into the 60s, real panic could set in, and 50 may end up being a monster bull trap.

The market is not the same as it was in April when it touched 50. Both demand and buyer confidence have diminished enormously since May. On top of that is Gox losing market share and so many people cashing out that Gox had to find new banks to process the volume.

Long term, though, you can buy anywhere right now and just hold and make a fortune. 60s seem inevitable right now though. It's just a question of how violent the red candles are going to be because of the psychological factors involved when 71 falls and the buys still don't come in.

42K BTC to break 60 on the bid side.

No buying pressure even in low 70s makes it hard to want to buy at 65 though.

Probs right. The swong from 90 to 71 made people feel really miserable, as if they wanted to exit the market forever.

60 and 50 should be even more violent.

The whole point of this downtrend is to break support at 50 and have the market be depressed so thousands and thousands and thousands of coins can be bought to pay off on the mega as $100+ is approached again. None of the big players, especially large miners, benefit from a long-term sub-$100 price, so the market will always be pushed back up.

Would not be one bit surprised to see $35 though.

88k BTC to $50 on the bid side, while there's only 143k BTC total on the orderbook. 25k BTC just to $60. Not that it's really all that indicative of anything since when shit really goes down, walls tend not to mean anything at all.

But 60k BTC in bids from $60 to $50 appears somewhat bullish. A lot of buying pressure may just be waiting for "cheap coinz", which may never materialize.

People are freaking out and not buying because every single mini rally since the original 100-92-98 bounce has been killed within three hours by one/multiple 3/4k selloffs.

On the other hand, that 88k BTC in bids between here and $50.00 will certainly go somewhere should that tendency reverse.

3k wall just up at $70.

Volume sucks because every mini-rally/bounce has been killed very early on so bids are stacked hard in the 50s (26k to $60 and almost 92k to $50) and asks are stacked up with people trying to get out alive/ahead. The last time the market swung down hard and touched 79 from 165 it acted similarly, albeit the volume wasn't as bad, and only reversed when someone bought $20 points worth of coins from 80 to 100+ after the Chinese Communist Party's propaganda mouthpiece aired their little non-effectual segment on Bitcoin one fateful Saturday morning.

Literally every other rally so far has been followed by little/no volume and then killed within a few hours by selloffs. Hard to believe this one would be different when coins sub $67 are so easily achievable by manipulation.

Should be interesting if we really see sustained dump volume to send it through $50 in a cataclysm attempt. I can only imagine if you want to trigger capitulation that you need to depress the rebound even at $50 so as to provoke the requisite sense of hopelessness required to get tons of people to dump tons/all of their coins at the absolute bottom.

The entire market is manipulation. There's little natural buy/sell pressure from cumulative moves of small positions. Whales do what they like. The last rally at 75 got killed almost instantly. If this really goes up and stays up, it is, without exception, a result of manipulation.

That's truly, truly not accurate. It takes large amounts of fiat to buy meaningful amounts of Bitcoin. Buyers have to be in the market, parting with a currency that can buy pretty much _anything_ in the world right now, a currency that is _very_ difficult for most people to acquire, in exchange for a number on a Bitcoin-qt client that _possibly_ will be worth more fiat than you bought it for in the future.

Unless you really believe people are hording Bitcoins for the day that you can use it to buy anything in the world like you can fiat. That day is a minimum of 3-5 years away. Whether Bitcoin even survives that long at all is absolutely not certain.

Until Bitcoin starts to see some widespread, real-world use as a currency, you'll never have any natural uptrend in the market because there's no reason to buy it unless you're in a parabolic bull phase or have done the analysis and found it to be a sound investment long term. The only people buying it are speculators, and people with less than six figures cannot move the market at all. Even 10 people coming together with $20,000USD a piece to invest will barely move the market. They can buy at their leisure and instantly get dumped on by an early adopter or a whale.

On the other hand, a lot of people have magical internet money sitting around that they can exchange at-will for real-world currency that they can buy food, pay rent, go on trips, buy cars and clothes, start businesses with etc. There's very little reason right now for _anyone_ to buy a Bitcoin in exchange for fiat unless they are buying for the exclusive purpose of selling them back for extra fiat in the future. People who disagree will feel very, very different when their dreams of $10,000BTC or $1,000,000BTC, or their pipe dreams of Bitcoin replacing fiat across the globe and being an unregulated, anarchistic global Internet currency never come to fruition.

With no widespread use for Bitcoin as a currency, the market will always trend down rather than up, unless it's being pumped. There is no other reason to dump a half mega or a mega into BTC to move the market $3 otherwise, while coins are always being mined, and the ones people are holding are always at risk of forming a cannon to fire at the bid side of Gox once fear and capitulation start to grip people's hearts.  

That is absolutely not the applicable logic, nor is it what I'm saying. This is a basic fact: Bitcoin is not a fully functional, usable currency at the present time. The reason is simply because you cannot buy very many things with it right now, and of the things you can buy, almost none of them can't _also_ be bought by fiat. It is not that Bitcoin itself is not a fully functional, usable currency, it is the material fact that a currency is only valuable when it can be exchanged for goods and services. Otherwise, minor currencies are only useful to convert into the major currency. This also applies to today's precious metals. Nobody is taking gold or silver as consideration for real world goods, but they still have value because you can convert them into the presently universal fiat.

If you don't believe it, then convert 100% of your fiat into BTC and let me know how life goes for you. Right now Bitcoin is only worth anything because it can be exchanged for a non-insignificant amount of fiat, and is very likely to appreciate in the medium-to-long-term future.


I neither have nor do I profess any such implication. It sounds like you take the insinuation that Bitcoin isn't an economic messiah a little too personally. How close do you think the world is to accepting Bitcoin in place of or as an alternative/equivalence to fiat, exactly? You should be realistic. It's nowhere close. The mere fact that BTC isn't even measured in mBTC yet is a major indicator of how little large scale adoption there is. The mere fact that BTC can barely sustain $100 should also enlighten you a little to the realities of what you're dealing with.

Also, there is a real question of whether or not BTC will be worth anything in five years. There's a question of what it will be worth in even twelve months. One single 51% attack, one hard fork, or one more huge speculative bubble that costs newcomers their shirts can/will severely damage or destroy Bitcoin's long-term prospects.

Bitcoin is never going to liberate mankind from the realities of the ruling system. If it ever does, it will be exclusively because the ruling system chooses to use it, and then it will fall under the rule of that system. Once Bitcoin poses a real threat, all manner of techniques and approaches will be used to eliminate it. Subversion that is hard to detect will be the real tactic that is used, and it's a tactic already being used. I have no idea how people develop such massive pipe dreams, but the world would not be what it is if people were smarter.

The walls were large enough that it looked like it was likely it would have been the hammer, but they only stayed up for a few minutes before being pulled, so no.

The problem with buying right now is that wall at $80 was tested and was neither bought through nor was it pulled. Market is too scared of dumps for real upward movement. Plus, if you ship the price back to $90 how are you ever going to trigger fear and capitulation and collection tens and tens of thousands of coins sub $50-40-30?

I remember when the same thing happened with a 3k wall at $108 when it was on its way down from the $115 spike after Gox announced the hiatus on USD withdraws. A few hours after that wall got sold into the price never came back up.

Wall at 80 won't come down. It's been directly tested once and approached two other times. If someone eats it we might see $85, otherwise we'll stagnate here until dumps. If we see $85/90 we'll still see dumps.

None of the whales want the price to go back to $90-100 yet. There is way, way, way too much money to take from people who will give up their coins when first $60 doesn't hold, and then $50 doesn't hold, and then $40 and $30 are realities.

But in order to do that, you can't just dump from $92-98. You have to depress the market over a longer timeframe in order to encourage a real demoralization of people's hopes for the future. If you don't demoralize people, there won't be fear, and there won't be capitulation.

Besides, if you can short, you can make a ridiculous fortune on the way down too.

That's why there are bull traps on the way down. If it weren't that way, those bull traps would be bear traps. There is _plenty_ of fiat sitting on Gox waiting for a good time to buy. After all, when $100-110-120-130 were the perpetual price point, whoever managed to buy at $80-85 on the last big sell off made themselves a fortune. So why aren't the market buys coming down, especially when you can pick up 10k BTC for less than one mega?

In my view, that makes the direction we're headed in remarkably clear.

This phenomenon has happened rather frequently when the market stagnates. When the price isn't moving there's always people who are trying to play the 500-2k selloffs that happen periodically so that they can resell for a small profit, or in the event that someone does decide to munch the next wall, or there's good news that drives price up, etc.

The problem is if you're bidding at $76 or $75 and the dumps start then you're buying at the top. The advantage is that if your bullishness turns out to be correct you make more money than everyone buying at $82-83 to play for $90+.

Atrocious volume is not bullish though.

I wonder how hard it'll throw down when $90 is broken. It's strange though. The market has proven itself to have considerably more buying power than one would imagine from a dump from $104 to $65 where it sat in the $60s for 2 days.

A purely speculative market.

The biggest problem is the market lacks the natural buying power to move on its own. It needs whales to make real % increase/decreases happen. Though the guy who bought 15k BTC at 80 must be enjoying his $300k right now.

~2.5k worth of sells in the last hour, taking out the wall at 90. Either monster bear trap or we're going down.

I think it's more profitable for whales to let the ask side build depth below 100 and then market buy rather than put up a 5k wall at like 94 that never gets filled.

As long as one mega/10k BTC can move the price $10+- and there are people willing to do so there's no such thing as a correction or a bubble. Market sentiment is wholly irrelevant when one/a few people can move the price at-will.

There's nothing to figure out. When the price stabilized around 76 and nobody would eat the wall at 80 someone realized they could pick up 15,000B for like 1.1-1.2 mega USD buying from $76-82, with a high probability of pushing the market to at least $100 on the momentum. What gave assurance there would be momentum there? Bids were stacked _deep_ in the 60s and 50s since everyone was waiting for "the bottom". Since they want to buy cheap coins, where does all that money go if the price starts to take off again? After all, $70-80-90 were _extremely_ profitable entry points when we spent several weeks between $100-134.

It was a good time to pick up a ton of coins and produce a trend reversal as a result. So many people were waiting on the sidelines for "confirmation" before buying anyway.

Technical indicators don't mean anything when _one_ person with 7 figures in fiat on Gox can move the market to that extent, although I certainly expect they did use TA to time their decision.

3k sell and then 3k wall went up at 93ish, unless I'm mistaken.

Rampion is probably correct about the problem that will be caused by ASICs. When people were frenzied to buy AM Blades at 50BTC @ $120-130 USD it was under the condition wherein 13GH would mine you 25-30-40BTC a month. But in the last few weeks difficulty has climbed so high that 13GH will mine you ~7BTC per month, and this is just discussing the problem for people who have Blades, one of the only ASICs you can buy and actually have in-hand without a 2-6 month waiting period, and only discussing the problem in the context of current difficulty, and not considering the fact that $120-130 USD is pretty much out of reach right now.

On top of that, the market has lost a lot of its buyers. These large periods of stagnation and only being able to sustain $97-98 are because Gox is no longer experiencing the "several million USD are being wired to our exchange every day! " phenomena that it was after/during the 266-50-165 era. A lot of the money that _was_ wired to Gox is now sitting in the hands of the whales who profited from the bubbles and in Gox's rake box. After all, the only reason we're not still sitting at 60-70 is because _one_ person put down a 15kBTC market order to push it through $80. It's not because there were hundreds or thousands of people looking to buy, eating through resistance.

The dilemma with ASICs is similar to the dilemma created when lots of people buy at the top of a rush and momentum runs out and it drops hard after. Everyone wants to get out alive. It'll be worse with ASICs because people bought from frauds like BFL and Avalon who can't be fucked to actually deliver the product when it's ready because it's more profitable for them to mine on it themselves as "burn in", only delivering the miners to the people who paid for them when the ship has already sailed.

People are itchy indeed. Right now people are anxiously waiting to see if someone will market buy to carry us into $110s again. If it doesn't happen, we will definitely go down hard.  

It's been like 4 attempts at 100/100+ that have failed. Unless price begins to move up, sells will come.

After it reaches the bottom.

If the market was as bullish as you describe we wouldn't be languishing with our heads below $100 for the last four days.

Price couldn't break 100 for 5 days and then speculators found an excuse to dump but it's bearshit.

Sure thing.

You mean the 4 times last week that it touched 100-104 and was sold off on, never to recover, within the hour?

Ability to approach $100 but neither break nor sustain $100 is not a bullish signal.

Do you think you'll be seeing $165+ legit before Christmas without a major influx of new blood via media hype too?

Also, when is the SD disbursement supposed to occur?

When are SD shareholders supposed to get their BTC?

Just standard stagnant, sideways trading.

My favourite part is when people extol "stability" while conveniently ignoring abysmal volume.