All posts made by martyMC in Bitcointalk.org's Wall Observer thread



1. Post 53687943 (copy this link) (by martyMC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.13h):

Quote from: JayJuanGee on January 23, 2020, 07:12:06 PM
-snip-
... I would rather just go up from here, but seems like there exists some short term down momentum... how low it will go remains another to be determined matter.
Why it would go up please? I don't understand...



2. Post 53688608 (copy this link) (by martyMC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.13h):

Quote from: Cryptotourist on January 24, 2020, 09:03:22 AM
Why it would go up please? I don't understand...

Cos it's BTC.
What do you mean? It's something that goes up with no reason? Till which level?



3. Post 53688721 (copy this link) (by martyMC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.13h):

Quote from: Cryptotourist on January 24, 2020, 09:40:03 AM
What do you mean? It's something that goes up with no reason?
That sounds semi-retarded.
It doesn't go up, for no reason.
Yes, it was my question, for which reason it would go up?

Quote from: Cryptotourist on January 24, 2020, 09:40:03 AM
Till which level?
It remains to be seen.
I'd like to think that one of Jupiter's moon's, is the limit. Wink
You think or you hope?



4. Post 53692432 (copy this link) (by martyMC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.13h):

Quote from: JayJuanGee on January 24, 2020, 03:19:26 PM
-snip-
... I would rather just go up from here, but seems like there exists some short term down momentum... how low it will go remains another to be determined matter.
Why it would go up please? I don't understand...

You sound a bit like a troll asking such a terse question, but for now, I will give you some benefit of the doubt, since I don't recognize your user name or having had posted in these here parts, previously.

In the short-term, we cannot always determine exactly BTC's price direction, and there is a bit of an inclination that BTC's price continues to move in the direction of the momentum that it already has until it no longer does.

Regarding BTC's medium to long term price, the pressure remains UP, and you can look at BTC price prediction models and information related to those price models which would include: 1) stock to flow, 2) four-year fractal, 3) metcalfe's law and networking effects pertaining to s-curve exponential adoption and 4) other similar models.  

If you do not understand the meaning of these models and you believe that they are purely theoretical, then likely you need to do more studying of bitcoin.  Surely there is a decent amount of truth that past performance of any asset does not guarantee future performance, and none of the price prediction models that I listed really rely on BTC's past performance, but past performance remains helpful to them in analyzing the models and where we are at in terms of those various price prediction models (looking at either time or price).

Do you have any other models or theories?  Do you believe that BTC prices are going down or going to stay flat in the coming 1-3 years?  How about 5 years?  What do you expect?

 I am frequently asserting that nothing is guaranteed, including bitcoin, but even if the price direction of bitcoin is far from guaranteed, there remains a decent amount of strong evidence that any person that takes bitcoin seriously and puts a bit of their assets into bitcoin, such as 1-10% of their investible assets are likely in a good starting place, even though individuals are going to vary in terms of some of their financial abilities or even assets that they might have available and able to invest in bitcoin.  

In any event, bitcoin seems to be a very asymmetric bet, towards the upside... so good luck to anyone who has NOT yet come around to understanding the asymmetric bet concept... you (lacking in understanding peeps) are going to need it (meaning luck).


Why it would go up please? I don't understand...

Cos it's BTC.
(btw, JJG didn't say that)

You seem to be suffering from the shitcoin syndrome.
Wish you a quick recovery.

True dat!!!   martyMC seems to have been engaging in a bit of a twisting of words, and maybe I should have restrained my lil selfie from taking the bait... I see that with some of his continued stupid-ass posts on the topic that do not really seem to add any value, just ask dumbass questions as if we were in 2011 when hardly anyone understood bitcoin, at all.    We are NO longer in those earlier days, so excuses for ignorance are NOT as acceptable... even though I do accept that there are genuinely a lot of people in the world who are quite susceptible to misinformation and disinformation regarding bitcoin because they do not know enough about the topic.
Cheesy
So you really think there is an unlimited free lunch for Bitcoin holders?
Everyone buying and holding at any price will win free money... indefinitely...
So even the dumbest guy in the world just need to buy bitcoin and sit down to earn money? He just need to wait to beat the market and steal money from professional traders?  Cheesy
What about all the people who bought Bitcoin 2 years ago? How much did they earn as of now?



5. Post 53693824 (copy this link) (by martyMC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.13h):

Quote from: Hueristic on January 24, 2020, 09:13:22 PM
Why it would go up please? I don't understand...

Cos it's BTC.
What do you mean? It's something that goes up with no reason? Till which level?

A deflationary currency in an inflationary economic model should increase in value infinitum.
Why Bitcoin would be indefinitely deflationary?  Huh I don't understand.
It was deflationary only because its price and its market were growing. But now that almost everyone on earth has heard of it, there is no reason for growing and being deflationary anymore.



6. Post 53693888 (copy this link) (by martyMC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.13h):

Quote from: Biodom on January 24, 2020, 09:54:18 PM
A deflationary currency in an inflationary economic model should increase in value infinitum.
Why Bitcoin would be indefinitely deflationary?  Huh I don't understand.
It was deflationary only because its price and its market were growing. But now that almost everyone on earth has heard of it, there is no reason for growing and being deflationary anymore.

That's NOT what it means to be deflationary.
It is deflationary because the unit number is limited to 21 mil max issued and that number is already smaller and decreasing because of the losses (lost wallet, thrown away hard drive, etc.). Lost bitcoin is not being replaced. In time, total number of accessible units will be declining, hence deflationary.
However, right now it is still mildly inflationary. Currently, btc inflation is about 3.6% on a yearly basis, will drop to less than 1.8% in May.
If it's still "inflationary" as you said, it doesn't explain its growth then.



7. Post 53694664 (copy this link) (by martyMC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.13h):

Quote from: JimboToronto on January 24, 2020, 11:09:38 PM
Steal money from "professional" traders?

Lawl. What a joke.

Bitcoin traders are basically gamblers who are aren't smart enough to realize that it's the exchanges who make the money. Those with deep enough pockets to manipulate the market may be able to earn short-term more than exchange fees and fiat transfer costs but the real gains are made by long-term growth.

Giving your bitcoins to an exchange to hold for you is just plain stupid. Not your keys, not your coins. The prudent investor avoids the internet, "wallets", passwords, etc. Do you understand dual-key cryptography? Simply  protect your private keys. Don't put all your eggs in one basket. When the day comes that your coins are worth many times what they're worth now, you'll be glad to be able to sweep small addresses.
Exchanges like CME or Bakkt are regulated, so they can't manipulate their market.

Quote from: JimboToronto on January 24, 2020, 11:09:38 PM
What about all the people who bought Bitcoin 2 years ago? How much did they earn as of now?

Those who paid over $30 in 2011 would have been way down when it was worth barely $5 in 2012. Those who paid over $1000 in 2013 would have been way down when it fell below $200 in 2015.

The smart people are the ones with the foresight to hold on to the coins they had while prices fell, and accumulate even more coins while they were cheap.

Even at the rock bottom price of $3.2k a year ago, those who bought for $1000 were doing pretty well. Those who stocked up at $5 or $30, or $200 are more than pleased with their investments.

When bitcoins are valued in 6 digits, these 4 digit prices will be seen as a bargain.
6 digits? you mean 6  Cheesy  Cheesy  Cheesy  Cheesy  Cheesy  Cheesy no?
If you want I can bet 100$ against 50$ of yours that Bitcoin won't be at 6 digits in one year.  Wink
You are seriously still dreaming of lambos in 2020?  Cheesy
I'm observing $82xx as of now...  Grin



8. Post 53696121 (copy this link) (by martyMC) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_17.13h):

Quote from: bitebits on January 25, 2020, 07:22:45 AM
Why it would go up please? I don't understand...

Cos it's BTC.
What do you mean? It's something that goes up with no reason? Till which level?

To 9000, obviously.
Because it would suit you?  Roll Eyes