All posts made by iikun in Bitcointalk.org's Wall Observer thread
1.
Post 15409286 (copy this link) (by iikun) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.54h):
My guess is the halving itself will be quite non-eventful
The last time there was not much movement in price. There was just a lot of talk.
Price on the day of halving went from about $12.20 to $12.35.
Exactly one year later the price was over $1,100.
Actually, 4-5 months later it peaked at
$1100 $266, but you must be aware that price doubled 2 months after halving and tripled 3 months after halving. I think that this time the change will be even faster, because mining is way to more competitive compared to 2013, miners have to dump as soon as they mine the BTC if they want to stay in game.
I agree that the change will be faster, but with lower rewards larger outfits will have to dump more often to recover their costs (as you rightly point out), leading to downward pressure, not upwards. Is this the change you are talking about?
2.
Post 15409929 (copy this link) (by iikun) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.54h):
Good morning Bitcoinland.
Still going sideways. 3 days now. Coiling.
Calm before the storm?
The last 12 hours has been very sideways indeed, just a few dollars up & down. I can't believe that will last much longer, but hard to say in which direction...
3.
Post 15409976 (copy this link) (by iikun) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.54h):
My guess is the halving itself will be quite non-eventful
The last time there was not much movement in price. There was just a lot of talk.
Price on the day of halving went from about $12.20 to $12.35.
Exactly one year later the price was over $1,100.
Actually, 4-5 months later it peaked at
$1100 $266, but you must be aware that price doubled 2 months after halving and tripled 3 months after halving. I think that this time the change will be even faster, because mining is way to more competitive compared to 2013, miners have to dump as soon as they mine the BTC if they want to stay in game.
I agree that the change will be faster, but with lower rewards larger outfits will have to dump more often to recover their costs (as you rightly point out), leading to downward pressure, not upwards. Is this the change you are talking about?
No, I think completely opposite. Miners are already dumpers No.1, not because they love to dump, but because they have to dump in order to pay huge expenses and to do it before the competition (in order to get the better exchange rate and if possible push the competition outside the game). Their pace of dumping will be completely the same as it is now, but the amount of BTC that miners can dump will be 2x smaller then currently. Because the pace of dumping by miners is much quicker compared to 2012-2013, I expect that we will feel the positive effects on BTC price much quicker compared to 2013. Also because number of coins in circulation is now bigger, I don't expect 26x jump in price, but let's say we could expect at least 5x (I assume inverse quadratic function here). Because of human psychology and they constant urge to have new ATH, price will be 100% larger than previous ATH and will probably position itself at $3000 in 2015.
Interesting perspective. I have no real clue as to how often large miners sell their rewards, although I would have assumed they have enough working capital to be able to wait for high prices. That could be upwards of several months of course. I suppose we shall see soon enough though!
4.
Post 15410496 (copy this link) (by iikun) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.54h):
For all the talk about China driving the price, the sell walls on the western exchanges are very interesting right now. It's risen 20~30 yuan on Huobi but traders on Bitfinex & Kraken too scared (or poor) to eat away the 200 BTC sell-walls. There's quite a gap opening up between the prices.
5.
Post 15451059 (copy this link) (by iikun) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.54h):
let me know your insigths about bitcoin.
In my opinion key level is 700$. If pass it through price should be seen rougthly almost 800's. No additional resistance level between 700-800$. Hope to hear from bulls good news.
So did you miss how the price broke thru into the $700s today & fell back down into the $680s?
6.
Post 15522149 (copy this link) (by iikun) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.55h):
I expect everyone here to be on time contributing to the buy pressure
52Seems there is quite a lull before the storm. Just hoping the storm is upwards & not a wipe-out ^^;
7.
Post 15526582 (copy this link) (by iikun) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.55h):
Bitcoinwisdom and cryptowat.ch are not available, probably ddosed. Forum next?
well that dump escalated quickly...wouldn't be surprised if that's connected
8.
Post 15526934 (copy this link) (by iikun) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.55h):
Block 420001 has a negative amount of transaction fees (-4BTC)
9.
Post 15527007 (copy this link) (by iikun) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.55h):
What???
Blockchain.info says that the block reward for block # 420000 is 16.666 BTC ?
It also shows fees as (-3.59096985), yes a negative fee amount. My guess would be a glitch, perhaps try another blockchain explorer.
oops, my bad, i meant 420002. But yeah they're all negative now so something needs fixing.
10.
Post 16852400 (copy this link) (by iikun) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.58h):
Why is it dumping??
No idea..haven't seen any news yet
11.
Post 16900758 (copy this link) (by iikun) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.58h):
No boys btc is not ready to reach 1k wait a little longer and open shortz now
while i dont share that opinion, i appreciate that independent mindset. thats what trading looks like, make up your own mind an trade accordingly. not following what 99% of all others are doing.
hahahahahaha
Yeah, innovate, don't follow the herd.
When everyone else is buying, sell.
That should turn out well.
Well, yeah. That's how it works. The key is interpreting the market right.
It's easy to sell too soon. It's best to hold long after you think you are going full retard by doing so. The peak of the pump is usually after most have dumped, regretted it, and bought back in. Nine out of ten people badly interpret the market because they think like the herd.
...says the person using an alt just in case they get burnt by holding too long :p
12.
Post 16930471 (copy this link) (by iikun) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_14.59h):
I think the best move here would be to troll the IRS first to test the waters. Create some losses trading BTC and then try to offset other income using those losses. If they accept it, lesson learned and you know their approach for the future. If they reject it then it is clear they cannot tax it either (quid pro quo). You'd want to ensure perfect separation of your current activities though, I'm assuming you've made a clear trading profit for the year.
13.
Post 17410301 (copy this link) (by iikun) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.01h):
Guys one fundamental question - where do you actually trade?
I had a sell/trailing stop order by Kraken today in the morning and during the dip -
it didn't fill !!
So I quickly made a sell/market price order - which
also didn't fill !!
Then I even more quicky made a sell/fixed price order which finally worked - but very late and I could have earned much more
Do you have similar experience? Do you know
which exchange actually WORKS during high load situations?
Thanks
I would avoid Kraken personally. I trade there too but only because I still have Gox claim trading credits. I've often lost out on small dips because the Kraken market doesn't respond quickly enough & kind of evens out the dips and tips if you get what I mean. If you have to trade there do it for more long term positions is my advice.
14.
Post 17448805 (copy this link) (by iikun) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.01h):
Meanwhile, it's very difficult for them to stop use of metals no matter what the law is.
What attribute do you believe monetary metals possess that is not possessed by cryptocurrencies? From my understanding, crypto is the better bet. After all, we can hide an unlimited amount of it in secure fashion.
The best bet in the long run is determined by whatever you believe makes up the base of Exter's pyramid:
I personally don't see bitcoin occupying the same bottom slot as monetary metals so it would have to be one higher on the same level as fiat.
We live in a closed ecosystem and the blockchain for metals was created by two neutron stars colliding, so unless you can replicate that, it's not very easy to tamper with the metals blockchain. People spam the word "anti-fragile" for Bitcoin, but it's just not in the same category of security as requiring two neutron stars to alter. As you can see, Exter's pyramid is mostly a scale of real anti-fragility.
People like Bitcoin because they look at it as a free money tree of upward growth. Assuming the market cap had topped out on both metals and bitcoin and you were forced to go all-in on one, which one are you going to pick? The aggregate market will likely gravitate towards the most anti-fragile solution in that case if the upside is tapped out. The only reason people hold Bitcoin instead is because they believe it can have higher yield in the short term as a speculative instrument.
Since less than 1% of people own metals, and even less own Bitcoin, they both have a lot of speculative upside. It's all about measuring the risk and upside vs one another. Metals do have huge upside of probably around $5000-$20,000 for an ounce of gold and $166-$1333 for an ounce of silver in current purchasing power. This would be an average of a +10.6x for gold and +45x for silver. This means Bitcoin needs to have greater than a 10-45x upside ($8840 - $39,600 per coin) for you to consider it since the risk is higher.
To flatten out some of the noise here, let's assume partipants are 50/50 gold silver split and give you a +27.5x gain. In that case, Bitcoin would need to have upside potential of $24,200 per coin to be worth holding as a long term investment and not day trading (as of market prices today). Without Lightning network or a block size increase, I think Bitcoin might get stuck in the $10k-20k range. So you have these two variables in bitcoin throwing a big monkey wrench into what potential price can be.
Anyway, as you can see from my numbers, it is difficult to advocate a 100% all-in position on Bitcoin with 0 metals even if you are a crazed gambler seeking maximum yield. If you fall in that category of seeking max yield while still having some type of safety, you would likely be something like 50% metals 50% bitcoin at most, or even 70% metals 30% bitcoin due to the risks involved. (Notice I did say you need to be a crazed gambler to have 30-50% of your money in Bitcoin).
You can mine the sh!t out of it! ...
BTCiTcoin is NOT! And there is the problem that gold has other properties and values for other industries. Meaning there will not be enough to make it usable for the casual currency debacle.
While on the other hand...
BTCiTcoin multiplies by itself. And I will give you an example: "in the future when the price gets stable, the only way for bitcoin to go is up or sideways. And in a normal supermarket/wallmart ... one day you will have some prices and in the next day you will have lower prices, the store gets paid something that will rise in value while the prices drop every day, meaning the unstoppable rise of the value of money will make bitcoin a consumerism currency. Because each day prices drop and it encourages you to use/spend more!"
Its like 1 chocolate or a bar of candy will cost 10 times less the next year or in 2-3 years depending on inflation of bitcoin. And on the long term...
in 500 years some planets will cost a few bitcons themselves, so basically you will mine all the gold you can want from those planets.
You are right about Bitcoin being limited. But we have yet to find out what percentage of the market cares about Bitcoin for actual use vs the percentage who see/use it for speculative investment purposes; Bitcoin's value will have an ultimate peak. Where that is nobody knows of course but perhaps it will become more apparent after the next halving or thereabouts.
15.
Post 18493480 (copy this link) (by iikun) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.07h):
BTC will touch 1300 usd this month!
This month we can expect the mark of 1300$ because at present bitcoin is in the big pump after Japan have declared that bitcoin as a payment method in Japan. This can boost up the price of bitcoin because many Japanese people are entering into bitcoin market to increase the value of bitcoin.
Japanese people are not fanboys. If they move some of their funds into bitcoin, it will be to save money making transactions, not to pump price of Tulips.
Personally, I believe that this will come to fruition only later, perhaps during summer or even later. Investors in countries such as Japan and Germany are quite conservative and never risk too much of their portfolio on what is to them still unproven product.
Living in Japan, I can report no big fuss & everything carrying on as usual. Yes, the news got noticed, but nothing more than that.
As anyone who knows the first thing about the Japanese economy can attest, it is very much cash based. Indeed, cash is used for something like 83% of all transactions (by value). Having come from a society where electronic payments are the norm, Japan almost feels like a developing country in its approach to cash.
Japan already has a variety of touch-and-pay systems, several with very deep market penetration, & it will be extremely difficult for BTC to establish itself. In reality there is really very little incentive for a retailer here to accept Bitcoin when other payment vendors frequently hound them and can show that significant numbers of their customers already use their payment system.
The only bump which may come from Japan's announcement will be speculators who are not aware that 99.9% of all Japanese don't really care about Bitcoin & will never buy it. Certainly I'm not going to waste any of my own BTC on transactions here because converting Yen to BTC on any exchange attracts a premium because the Yen/BTC markets aren't fluid enough. It's actually cheaper in the end to pay cash and keep BTC for other things such as speculation or international payments.
16.
Post 19033251 (copy this link) (by iikun) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.09h):
We're at $1752 on Stamp, in the same range we've been at for a week now.
A week is a long time to you ?
Some of us have been watching this for 4 years.
Except for long-play markets such as real estate, 4 years may as well be 4 decades ^^;
I know if I see someone on this thread post "Bitcoin skyrocketing" I check the price straight away. Snooze & you lose in Bitcoin land...
17.
Post 19050332 (copy this link) (by iikun) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.10h):
total mkt cap of crypto (available supply) will approach 100 bil $ soon imho
makes sense to be diversified in BTC and Alt - even if alts crash...how soon we forget that BTC crashes very hard as well
Indeed. Diversification is the key to wealth creation. No market is immune to crashes (we all know this lol), and alts in moderation can help mitigate the larger drops.
18.
Post 19494140 (copy this link) (by iikun) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.12h):
Ethereum's market cap is rising so fast that if Bitcoin's price does not increase soon, Ethereum will be number 1 in Market Cap. That will be a sad day for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin deserve that. Slow, pricy, china centered. I used to like Btc, but not anymore. I make transaction with HYPER inflated fees and wait 10 years for confirmation to go through... F* it...
Last night I waited 12 hours for confirmation at the standard fee.
I understand that the miners want to turn a buck and that they are throwing around
massive amounts of energy and hardware...
Somehow I wonder if this is still elegant enough for the top of the
line cryptocurrency.
I paid extra today for a speedier transaction & it still took half an hour. If the miners keep being part of the problem rather than the solution something else is going to come along and spank Bitcoin's ass.
19.
Post 20235749 (copy this link) (by iikun) (scraped on 2020-04-04_Sat_15.14h):
BIP91 is back to 79.8, so its not fix after 80% ?
as I understand it will take the average, please correct me if I´m wrong
To my understanding a fixed number of blocks needs to be found before it "locks"
See:
https://www.xbt.eu/