practicaldreamer
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May 27, 2017, 09:14:15 PM

If you can call the tops - and the bottoms - then you are a better man than 99.9% on here.

For the rest of mankind cost averaging doesn't seem like a bad strategy to me.

You don't need to call tops or bottoms. If you did, you could have restocked at $155. It's more a case of aligning probabilities. I haven't bought for myself since $300 either, but I did have money allocated for a sub-$100 panic (which never materialized).

I guess a cost-averaging strategy isn't a bad idea for the other 99% however.

Yeah - look, I'm not wanting to start an argument here but your post doesn't make much sense. And, FWIW I bought at the same price point as yourself and the other guy.

You say that you are in the 1% that just "knows", on the balance of probabilities. Yet you state in your post that even though you had money set aside for sub $100, the price never went that low so your (potential) order wasn't met. You made the wrong call then, surely ?

How are probabilities arrived at in this market ? "Aligning probabilities" is a posh way of saying you are calling the top and the bottom.

Its my contention that you are unable to do so - and that, therefore, a cost averaging strategy, especially for those who might just be entering the bitcoin invetsment space and weren't fortunate enough to get in at a lower price point, might well be a very good strategy indeed.

That, or just buy and hold.

But don't try to second guess this market.