Genuinely interested, what do people think will happen to the price in the next 3 months if the Chinese news is real?
I believe that the two rallies in 2013 were caused by the opening of the Chinese market, which created huge demand for BTC and sucked coins out of the Western markets. If the ban is real (I am not convinced yet) most of the coins in the Chinese exchange accounts may be moved to the non-Chinese exchanges. So I think this may well happen:
The black line is an exponential fitted by eyeball in log scale to the Bitstamp prices before April 2013.
But I think this it is just a possibility, I would not bet on it. It is hard to guess what the big holders and investors will do: whether they will buy all the Chinese bitcoins, or dump those they already have.
Not sure how to explain you that... but in this one year, there was a big step up for btc. Not just in price but also in infrastructure


And then.... here is also Wall Street.
I have a hard time buying two digits.. except maybe some weird flash crash scenario.. otherwise, i am with got milk.. and $300 or possibly a little bit lower could be extreme downsides... but I cannot seem much lower than $300... for any sustained period of more than a few hours.