Sandia
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August 13, 2014, 11:34:17 AM

Just to kill off the long squeeze FUD that is being spread on Reddit, take a look at this chart:
http://www.bfxdata.com/swapstats/usd.php
Click All as the time period.

Eyeballing the chart, it looks like (very conservatively) $1M in longs is opened every 6hr period on average, or $4M per day.
There are about $30M in outstanding longs.  This means the average long stays open 7 days.

Realistically, it is closer to $1.25M, $5M, and less than 6 days.  You might notice that $10M in USD swaps was opened in one 24 hour period.

Anyone waiting for margin calls on guys holding from $685, $650, $630 or even $600 positions is nuts.  30M in longs over the last 3 months DOES NOT mean that the positions have been held 3 months.  It means BFX has a pretty stable equilibrium of longs opening and closing such that 30M is outstanding at any particular time.