oda.krell
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December 30, 2013, 12:33:42 AM

I've been reading here a bit and try to follow rpietila since I think he is one of few here that really has the experience and the balls to follow his knowledge. Fwiw I think he's putting to much weight in the logarithmic trend line. I'm not sure if he is basing his bear call on other technicals but if he isn't I think it's a mistake. As of right now I'd say technicals are looking much better then they were before the dip bellow $500. I don't know why I'm posting this. Guess I want to give rpietila some support for his skills but at the same time spank him a bit if he's making this bear call only on the basis of the log trend line.

Discuss.

I've said something very similar yesterday, and before that as well (okay, I said it with more snark, but that's because I prefer to act dickish myself when corresponding with people that act dickish).

A log trend line (more precisely: linear regression on log charted price history) is a nice little tool to get a feeling for where we are at any point in time compared to the historic trend, and where we're going to be, very very roughly, in a few months or a year from now.

It is very much not a method to conclude that, right now, we have to go down another 33% to match the trendline, or that price has to rise by 2.575% to fulfill our yearly growth quota.

Add to that the bragging and the unjustified arrogance, together with a big dollop of exaggeration ("several millions"), and I'm suddenly much less forgiving towards his TA failures than I am with anyone else's.