strawbs
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November 12, 2013, 04:02:32 PM

Why don't you bring your stuff here, this is THE thread =)


chart courtesy to oper128

This thread is an attempt to generate an exchange rate graph that goes all the way back to January, 2009. The datapoints are monthly averages or typical prices as follows:

20092010201120122013
Jan.005.005.426.016.4
Feb.005.005.945.027
Mar.005.005.834.958
Apr.005.0051.315.0118
May.005.0057.15.1121
Jun.005.00818.56.1104
Jul.005.0614.08.286
Aug.005.069.811.1105
Sep.005.065.611.6122
Oct.005.113.511.6163
Nov.005.262.711.6
Dec.005.243.513.4

1/2009-5/2010 Attempt to find data of actual OTC trades. The trades found, happened between 0.0025-0.0054. We do not currently know exactly if there was a trend to either direction during this time, or if trades were isolated. Assumed flat 0.005 for the purposes of this analysis but will change if appropriate.
6/2010 Transition to Mt.Gox
7/2010-5/2013 Mt.Gox weekly volume weighted average prices' average per month.
6/2013- BitStamp's weekly volume weighted average prices' average per month. At approximately mid-May, 2013, Mt.Gox started losing market share to Bitstamp and it's price started to diverge. Therefore the crossover in prices is already in the beginning of June, although Mt.Gox had a larger volume until October.

UPDATE: dree's datapoints used, which will change the trendline slightly: y = 0,092x - 2,9124. Rē = 0,91466. This is not yet updated in the charts, however (difference hardly noticeable). NOTE: x=1, when in Jan2009 (previously x=0)

Trendline target for November 2013: $296
Trendline target for December 2013: $365

(first post of rpietilas thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=322058.0)


So for Christmas next year I can give myself retirement as a present?  Hold, hold, hold.