thoughtfan
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December 09, 2013, 02:35:29 AM

I'm pretty sure the trendline mentioned is the one formed with the lease squares method on the log chart over the longest period of available data, not the current parabolic uptrend. Hope that helps.

My point was, any trendline can only describe the past. Whether it can be extrapolated into the future in any meaningful sense is entirely speculative. (Ha ha.) If you were to draw the trend 10 years from now, using the same method, the portion of it corresponding to the market data we've seen up to now might or might not be close to the trendline as drawn now.

Bitcoin is not a conservative market. I'd be very surprised if it conformed to a trend estimated from a few years of data for very long.

Oh, yeah, I totally get what you are saying. Like my brother is fond of saying 'The chart is good until it isn't'. I guess I have more *faith*, while speculating, when I pair my tea leaves with analysis that also includes S-curve adoption. And, THAT trendline is quite stable... so far. By which I mean, not only do we have scads of data on S-Curves, but XRP is fitting the more horizontal portion nicely... so far. Smiley

And the steeper and higher the steep bit of the S-Curve goes, the bigger will be the necessity to zoom in on the chart as it shows today to see how far off we were in retrospect.  As much respect as I have for rpietila I think his belief that the curve showing in these early days is a reasonable indicator of the future is misguided.  If it becomes true it will either be luck or because enough people believe that will be the pattern that we collectively draw it as such with our trades!