billyjoeallen
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billyjoeallen
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April 27, 2014, 07:39:51 AM

After about 400 more coins are moved on Huobi, I expect another influx of 1000-2000 coin bids.  All it takes is two non-cooperating arbitrageurs in order to insure that Huobi is always about 10 USD below stamp, as long as it remains infeasible for the general customer to deposit funds.  That can continue until the offers stop.  When the external volume on Huobi is less than that on stamp (not the churn, the trading volume reported, but the fiatleak numbers), it will cease to lead the price.  The China problem may be over long before anyone really is expecting it to be over.



So you seem to agree that Huobi is dying. What happens when it flat-lines? bang zoom to the moon immediately or a sharp dip before liftoff like with Silk Road and Gox? I think a sharp dip is probable. What's worse is that the longer it lives, the lower the price is likely to sink before that last. sharp. dip.