chessnut
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May 01, 2014, 06:23:29 AM

ugh bears, there are relatively unlimited people to buy, and such limited amount of people to sell. the chinese will run out abruptly in the middle of your trend party.
How could they run out when they are still running their illegal exchanges with a bunch of volume and the owners are trying to pretend like nothing is wrong?

There are also new huge sources of coins coming in every week from other sources now.  (hackers, mtgox, silkroad, drug dealers)

Maybe I'm wrong about the above. So, if the trend breaks, I can act on it then. But why would I preempt the trend breaking, all the way at the top, when I'm most likely to fail and get clobbered by a brutal move? If you sum the risk reward of each of these decisions as it has occured about 8 times during the trend now, then you will find that not preempting the trend reversal is a much more profitable strategy. The one time I have to pay somewhat higher price after reversal is confirmed will be much better than the 7 times I would take a huge loss.

is the volume fake, or not?

there are things that are constant, and there are things that have finite impact. if you will attribute the fall to chinese bank ban, which seems evident in the news, the market will reach equilibrium after it is resolved.