JorgeStolfi
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April 07, 2014, 12:59:17 AM

Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Monday April 07

Prediction valid for: Monday 2014-04-07, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 2929 CNY.
Bitstamp's predicted price: 472 USD.


Plot legend

This last data point was again good (S = 0.0030, W = 0.835), and almost aligned with the previous three points. Therefore it seemed appropriate to stick with a straight trend line, defined by least squares on the last four Slumber points: A + B*(d-d0) where d-d0 is the number of days since Apr/03, A = 2670.77, B = 64.48.

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which was assumed to be 6.20 CNY/USD (it was 6.23, 6.20, 6.13 at the last three Slumber Times).
 
Checking the previous prediction

Prediction was posted on: Saturday 2014-04-05, 23:41 UTC
Prediction was valid for: Sunday 2014-04-06, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~19 hours later)

This was again an easy hit:

Huobi's predicted price: 2874 CNY.
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 2860 CNY
Error: 6 CNY (~1 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 466 USD.
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 459 USD
Error: 7 USD
 
NOTE: If you lost money because you trusted my predictions, you made at least two big mistakes.