JorgeStolfi
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February 22, 2014, 03:55:46 AM

Checking the Chinese Slumber Method predictions for feb/21

The prediction for today Feb/21 was again way off the mark:

Prediction posted on: Friday 2014-02-21, 01:35 UTC
Prediction valid for: Friday 2014-02-21, 19:00--19:59 UTC

Huobi's predicted price: 3772 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 3425 CNY
Error: 347 CNY

Bitstamp's predicted price: 616 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 563 USD
Error: 50 USD

During most of the day the price was rising steadily, recovering from yesterday's fall and aiming straight towards the prediction. But around 14:00 UTC (22:00 China Standard Time) there was another sudden and significant drop to 3400, and was still there when the traders went to bed. 

The Huobi prediction in question is the rightmost blue rectangle on the chart below.  The light blue-gray rectangles are the previous predictions.  The orange and grey dots are the True and False Slumber Points, the mean prices at 19:00 UTC every day.  The orange line is the trend that was assumed for the prediction.


The following chart shows the Bitstamp prices and predictions. The orange and grey dots are Huobi's prices at 19:00 UTC every day, divided by R (6.40 for Feb/07--09, 6.12 for all other days).  The orange line is the trend used in the prediction, which is Huobi's trend divided by R.