JayJuanGee
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How much alt coin diversification is needed? 0%?


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May 20, 2016, 08:11:37 PM

If the Bitcoin exchange rate roughly doubles every 3 years due to halving (and hashrate rises in lockstep) and continues to do so for the next two decades, then its ROI rate will literally spank *every* other known investment in the world today that's been around for at least 7+ years or longer.

But of course the 'get rich quick' crowd won't or refuse to believe it, and will gladly part ways with their money on other scams and too-good-to-be-true "investments".

Conversely, if ETH exchange rate ...goes up by 1600%, what's the word I'm looking for? watevs, if ETH exchange rate increases roughly 16-fold every 5 months, and continues to do so for the next two decades, then its ROI rate will literally spank *every* other known investment in the world today that's been around for at least 7+ years or longer.

My stupid hypothetical more profitable than your stupid hypothetical. I win. brb, ether.

ETH hasn't been around for 7+ years yet. In fact let's talk in just 12 months, when I'm sure the ETH price will be MUCH MUCH lower than it is right now.  Many orders of magnitude lower in fact.  Because ETH = SCAM.

No, ETH hasn't been around for 7 years, what's your point?
Not sure where you get the "roughly doubling every 3 years." In the first three years, BTC price has gone up by roughly infinity, as it does with all cryptos.  In the following three, price went up to $1200, fell back to ~160, and recovered to 440 where it is now.
So "roughly doubles every 3 years"? Explain that shit.

it appears to roughly 10X every 3 years  Cheesy

this time its different
this time its going to 100X

32,000$


Wowzie, wowzie... We're back on track for $32k... Yipppppppeeeeee!!!!!

There are probably several ways to slice bitcoin's price history, and I doubt that it can be characterized as linear.. and there is a possibility for another exponential growth period, and who knows the odds for such...

I will grant that we do seem to be in a very decent place that increases the odds for another exponential growth period, but, yeah, how much of one? how fast? and how far? and history remains only a small piece of such a speculative prediction puzzle.  

If we look at history, from which price point to which price point are we gonna select in order to make our claim about past growth?   For example:  From mid 2010 to present the growth has been 8,860x - yet I understand that number to be a bit skewed because the starting point is close to zero... but if we go from June 2011 to present the growth is about 15x  (but I would suggest that from 2011 to present the more representative growth rate would be about 45x from $10 to $450), and maybe only history will be able to tell us which portions of the growth curve are more representative and which parts are anomalies.

Here are the approximate price points:

In much of 2009 and early 2010, bitcoin was virtually free to those in the "right circles"  = $0

Starting in mid 2010, BTC was traded for around    = $.05

January 2011  = $.30

June 2011 =  $30

January 2012  = $5

January 2013  = $14

April 2013 = $260

July 2013 = $70

November 2013   = $1,200

January 2015  = $320

A large majority of 2015 = $180 to $300    (Mostly $230 to $260)

April 20, 2016 to May 20, 2016   = $435 to $470