smoothie
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LEALANA Monero Physical Silver Coins


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April 10, 2014, 10:54:06 PM

your first prediction of flash crash to 400 was right but your second prediction on the reversal was and is wrong, you have been calling a reversal from 550 all the way down to $400, sadly we broke that 400.

now there is 2 scary facts, China is really closing accounts on the 15th of April and this is confirmed, now Australia will be closing all Bitcoin business related accounts on the 2nd of may; now  it is unclear for me how there is a chance of a reversal !! till then, I don't know if we reached the bottom yet...

My approach to predictions: If I make a 50/50 prediction, I aim to be "right" exactly 50% of the time. If I make 70/30 (that was perhaps my feeling after the Feb-25 crash) I still need to be "wrong" every third time, otherwise I am playing too safe. If you don't understand this, better not listen to me at all.

Rational investors discount the future to the present, and all information commonly available is already priced in. Now, Bitcoin is very far from an efficient market, and therefore there is a mispricing going on. I am moving funds to exchange if nothing else helps to correct/profit from the situation. I think this is the biggest reason why the reversal/recovery is sluggish: whales like me are scared as hell to send the million$ back to exchanges, no matter if they were originally earned by selling bitcoins or if it is new money. It is the shadow of Gox again.

Please somebody sell me bitcoins at $389, off-exchange, BTC100 minimum. Please.


you are sooo full of shit! =) ^i'll sell you as many as you want@ $389!

I'll buy 100BTC from you off exchange.