JayJuanGee
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How much alt coin diversification is needed? 0%?


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July 30, 2018, 11:48:51 PM

I just need to point out that the bear market of 2013-2015 was not exactly three years, but one year and a half. Since it covered three years, people think they were full three years, which is not the case.

There can be a lot of variance in the measurement both in terms what was the actual bear market, and there are some reasonable claims to 3 years, especially if you count from the top of the previous peak and how long it took to return to prices above the previous peak.  Surely, measuring from previous peak to returning above that seems a bit of an extreme measurement too.

Another angle, is to measure what were the perceptions of being in the bear market - and getting out of such bear market.  You know some folks like to call "bear market" as soon as the price enters into a correction, and some times they might end up being right.. like chicken little continuing to say that the sky is falling or the boy who calls wolf.  When you call "bear market" early and often, it remains unclear whether the trend would have been reversing..

Furthermore, even your depicted time-frame of 2013-2015 might be inaccurate and suggests the result that you want us to reach.

Personally, I have been of the belief that even though the bear market of 2014 began around late 2013, it really would not have been reasonable to label it as an actual "bear market" until about the end of 2014 when the price continued to not be able to recover above $500, and then just plunged into its low large $200 range.  Also, even though BTC prices largely began to recover in about October 2015, we really did not have any convincing evidence until about May 2016 when the price shot above $500 for the second time (of the previous 7 months), and even that end of May 2016 shooting up was far less than a 100% certainty about being out of the earlier bear market (but instead a reasonable perception, and bet).

I guess in the end, I likely agree with you that the bear market was less than 3 years, but I would most strongly characterize such bear market (both the perception and the ultimate market performance) lasting between about mid 2014 and mid 2016.. which would be two years, but surely we could recognize arguments for the assertion of alternative frameworks, depending also upon whether you believe certain causes to have been more prevalent to your story of what happened (bringing us into or out of such "bear market").

Finally, some folks have reasonably asserted that bitcoin has never been in any kind of meaningful bear market, and surely that kind of story would just emphasize the s-curve adoption aspect of bitcoin, and perhaps give less emphasis to some of the reality of the significant price corrections in terms of length of time and depth of the correction(s).