Poll
Question: Closing BTC Price June 28:
$0 - 5 (2.6%)
<$7,000 - 4 (2.1%)
$7,000-$7,499 - 0 (0%)
$7,500-$7,999 - 0 (0%)
$8,000-$8,499 - 1 (0.5%)
$8,500-$8,999 - 3 (1.6%)
$9,000-$9,499 - 4 (2.1%)
$9,500-$9,999 - 27 (14.2%)
$10,000-$10,499 - 26 (13.7%)
$10,500-10,999 - 15 (7.9%)
$11,000-$11,499 - 14 (7.4%)
$11,500-$12,000 - 17 (8.9%)
>$12,000 - 59 (31.1%)
>$20,000 - 15 (7.9%)
Total Voters: 190

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21253522 times)
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CryptStorm
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December 20, 2013, 11:05:14 PM

The exponential trend of USDBTC from the start of Bitcoin (3.1.2009-) is already quite established. I recalculate it monthly, and during the last 12 months the slope of the trendline has fluctuated only 2.9%! Expressed in doubling time, its trend has been between 96 days 8 hours and 99 days 0 hours for the whole year. According to SlipperySlope, the trend is the beginning part of a logistic function of bitcoin adaptation. The model leads to $1M/BTC in 2016-17.

We are now at $443 in the exponential trend. The definition of "trend" is that price stays as long time above it as it spends below it. The tops of April and November were >3x the trendprice. The lows in between were 30-50% below the trend.

If this holds, it is near certain to go below 500, more likely than not to cross 400, but unlikely to touch 300.

April crash had 3 capitulations in $60 range, and now we have just seen 1 so far, it is very likely that more follows.

+1 This, plus basic comprehension of the S-Curve (it's adoption, yo) is making me money. Cheers Risto