monkey is looking for downside through next sunday, roughly. also bearish through at least mid-September. supports are 561, 537, 490, 444, 224
Your monkey was bearish last January, but the price had doubled within six months. Your monkey is a crap trader and needs sacking. If he says sell it's probably best to buy. If the price doubles again within six months will you permanently sack your monkey?
FYI monkey now thinks BTC is broken. Short for 1 month, at least. I am not trading this (except to rotate into XMR), but neither do I accumulate.
Yeah, the monkey underperforms in BTC relative to other instruments, but he still outperforms me, if I interpret him correctly, and does represent a slight edge. I don't have enough data (or time) to quantify the edge, but I guess its about 5-8%. Consequently my sizing is small in BTC. In SPX, UST, GLD, OIL, JPY, EUR, he does much better (or my interpretive skills are better, mutatis mutandis) -- about a 15-20% edge. I have enough data to quantify that, but haven't bothered.
You will notice that I said I was not going to trade with the monkey in January. It turns out that was the right call. This time I am trading with the monkey, and time will tell. So far he has me up about 4% since Saturday, on that small position. XMR on the other hand has been a rocketsled up the mountain.
Your monkey would do better trades if you blindfolded it, and got it to throw darts at a newspaper stock listing. Buy the stocks the darts hit and you will outperform both amateur and professional traders.
A Princeton University economist (Burton Malkiel) developed a theory that a blindfolded monkey throwing random darts could outperform professional traders. Forbes tested the theory every two months, and the monkey won.
Blindfolded Monkey Beats Humans With Stock Picks
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Consider Princeton University economist Burton Malkiel's "efficient markets theory." In his 1973 book, "A Random Walk Down Wall Street," Mr. Malkiel argued that if the market is truly efficient and a share price reflects all factors immediately as soon as they're made public, a blindfolded monkey throwing darts at a newspaper stock listing should do as well as any investment professional.
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Every two months we test this theory. Four amateurs, four professionals and the monkey go up against the market, as measured by the Morgan Stanley Capital Index for Europe.
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Amateurs, professionals and the monkey have now completed three rounds of competition from July 2000 through May 2001. If percentage gains are converted into dartboard points, the monkey has moved into the lead with 13.3 points, followed by the professionals with 4.4 points, and the amateurs with -81.22.