My guess is that the month-long rise from ~220 to ~270 was due to MMM's "Republic of Bitcoin" ponzi, while the spike to ~280 over the last two days was due to the VAT decision.
It seems that the VAT news have already been forgotten. "Wat VAT?"
It seems that the VAT news have already been forgotten. "Wat VAT?"

I would guess the MMM had between 0 and 0/1 effect on price.