babanana
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October 05, 2017, 09:50:57 AM

Aww man, I hope we don't drop below $4k again. I'll have a sad then Sad

I believe that there is some support at $4k, but I doubt that such support is really strong.. but what do I know?

I would suspect that support in the $3500 to $3600 arena would be pretty strong  - yet if that $3500 t0 $3600 support does not hold, then we will be testing $3k, again... that should surely be the bottom - and a double bottom at that... but I would still put getting down to $3k at less than 35% chance.. which is reasonable, but not super strong from my current perspective.

I think that we have greater than 50% odds of testing resistance and even breaking above $5k resistance before mid- November; however, if we break below $3k, then I will certainly be reassessing my current tentative thinking on the matter.

I have over 500k worth of tether spread on three exchanges waiting at that level. Grin

Well, I hope that you are not playing only one direction, because as you may have noticed I have described odds for up and odds for down, so to me it seems quite risky if you were only betting one direction.

By the way, what level are you betting?  $3500-$3600 or a more risky bet of $3k?

Also, kind of on the same point, if I were to have $500k available for buying down to $3k, for example, then that would probably mean that I have more than $800k in cash available for possibly buying down to $1k - even though I am pretty doubtful that we would get much below $2200.. ... Furthermore, I would have well over 1,000 in bitcoins too.. (which is currently valued at over $4million)...

So, what I am saying is that you seem to be betting one direction because it does not seem that you have that many bitcoin investment assets in total, other wise you would not be talking about the $500k worth of tether rather than describing the other side of the ledger, and in that regard, you seem to be poorly hedged for both directions... actually, even a 50/50 hedge would mean that you better have at least 200 bitcoins (besides your cash holdings), at these prices....

I am at $3400-$3600. That came from the 132 btc I sold last time at $4700 level first week of Sept, Cash out 100k+. Bought back 160btc at $3100, then sold at $4300 3days ago then cash-out excess of 500k. of course I pull them out when avalanche is incoming.

Apparently you have a balls to the walls system that works. I have no idea how to predict either price direction, so I just play both, and I don't make as much money, but I am surely comfortable with my strategy and my strategy seems to pay off pretty well, too.

I suspect that if the market is not going your direction, then you either have a stop loss or a buy back point, too.... so hopefully your bitcoin building strategy continues to work for you.

Historically, when newbies come into this thread bragging about their balls to the walls strategy, they are not really sharing all of the facts and frequently it is difficult to determine the extent of their truthfulness (and whether they are trying to entice people or to talk their book - same idea, and forms of trolling), besides that they want to brag their good plays..  and hopefully they understand the odds of Martingale principles.

Just got lucky. When buying slows down, that's when I immediately sell. Or when dumping slows down, you buy.