To clarify, your models suggest that:
1) BTC will bottom out in the period you have suggested (shortly after the China deadline, as it happens)
2) The US stock market is due for a downturn later this year (pointing to an economic downturn a few months later?)
3) Therefore Bitcoin 'outperforming' in this context could mean no growth at all, while the stock markets dip
What are your models' track records?
Correct. The broad market model gives me roughly an 12% edge on directional r2k futures positions over 1 month. The BTC model is not mature enough to measure accurately. The more parameters in your model, the more data you need to avoid overfit. BTC doesn't have enough history to provide useful quality metrics on a scale more than a few hours, for models of this complexity. I've tried to use some tricks to avoid overfit, but I can't yet quantify my success or failure in that regard, for the current model, with a usable p value.
Thanks. So another way of putting this might be:
"Not sure about bitcoin. By the way, recession in 12 months."