So your thesis is that MtGox is not only insolvent, they have less than 64.8% of their deposits?
In the case of shutdown by regulators and bankruptcy, where are trading account holders in the line of creditors? Legit question -- I do not know. This is assuming that customer funds are not held in trust -- obviously if Gox is insolvent, this is the case.
If Gox did have 64.8% of deposits in such a situation, do you think trading account holders would receive 64.8% of their money? I don't.
And how many years later would they receive compensation? This is not a matter of straight probability.
One more issue here for those holding MTGox obligations denominated in BTC is that BTC could easily sky-rocket with respect to JPY while MTGox is in bankruptcy. So the BTC MTGox obligation holder may just get a few millibits on the BTC.
That implies MTGox doesn't have any BTC holdings, which I don't think anyone believes. Their assets are frozen when they enter bankruptcy proceedings.
No. it means the receiver liquidates the BTC for JPY during the bankruptcy and then the BTC/JPY rate sky rockets. How this is handled during a bankruptcy can create a real legal mess between the creditors holding BTC claims and the creditors holding fiat claims.