Interesting discussion chaps.
Yep bitcoin is high risk. Going all in is silly unless your are in your early twenties. Saying that I think it really is a commodity to hold for a couple of years at least, to smooth out blips on the long term trendline.
We remain at a great entry point for new buyers (could it get better, sure if we have disaster or a bounce off 275). But IMO the next wave won't get excited and start buying until the price begins to rise again.
My view is that this extended bear market is being driven by new coins floating on the exchanges. The top 500 addresses are gaining coins, not divesting.
If stolfi is right and there are 650,000 addresses with any significant amount of btc in (and I have four cold storage addresses myself) then bitcoin holders propping the price up represent perhaps 100,000 to 400,000 people globally, excluding off chain wallet services. I can easily see another 1 to 10 million people buying a bitcoin in the next mania of 2015/2016 can't you?
They say patience is a virtue and it has been tested this year for bitcoin enthusiasts!
Yep bitcoin is high risk. Going all in is silly unless your are in your early twenties. Saying that I think it really is a commodity to hold for a couple of years at least, to smooth out blips on the long term trendline.
We remain at a great entry point for new buyers (could it get better, sure if we have disaster or a bounce off 275). But IMO the next wave won't get excited and start buying until the price begins to rise again.
My view is that this extended bear market is being driven by new coins floating on the exchanges. The top 500 addresses are gaining coins, not divesting.
If stolfi is right and there are 650,000 addresses with any significant amount of btc in (and I have four cold storage addresses myself) then bitcoin holders propping the price up represent perhaps 100,000 to 400,000 people globally, excluding off chain wallet services. I can easily see another 1 to 10 million people buying a bitcoin in the next mania of 2015/2016 can't you?
They say patience is a virtue and it has been tested this year for bitcoin enthusiasts!
I think neither halving or ETF are major reason for next big rally. What will be the real fuel is to simplify bitcoin enough for non tech savvy people and some financial crisis when people would panic and rush to buy bitcoins