JorgeStolfi
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March 08, 2014, 07:00:16 AM

Based on this current downtrend in BTC prices (over the last couple of days)... I guess the BTC market remains a little worried about additional negative and uncertainties in the news, such as: GOX moving of coins, Japanese declaration of BTC as a non-currency and this twobit guy potentially outing the foundation members on Monday...   Maybe those news items are driving our current downward (sell) pressure.    

I have no idea about what the price may do over the weekend.  Even my "Slumber" predictions, for ~20--24 h ahead, are not expected to hold  if there is too much volume late into the night -- and there seems to be no way of predicting those Albertosaurs.

However, I believe that the Chinese exchanges are the main drivers of the price, simbply because they are 80% of the volume, and appear to have greater liquidity.  However, their traders do not seem to be very much tuned into bitcoin news.  Most of those news are about developments in the West that have no impact in China.  If the Chinese react to some development (like the Bloomberg rumor), it is because some Western exchange reacted strongly to it first (so strongly that arbitrage was overwhelmed), and then the Chinese went into panic buy or panic sell.  That is my impression.

EDIT: typos.