Poll
Question: Closing BTC Price June 28:
$0 - 5 (2.6%)
<$7,000 - 4 (2.1%)
$7,000-$7,499 - 0 (0%)
$7,500-$7,999 - 0 (0%)
$8,000-$8,499 - 1 (0.5%)
$8,500-$8,999 - 3 (1.6%)
$9,000-$9,499 - 4 (2.1%)
$9,500-$9,999 - 27 (14.2%)
$10,000-$10,499 - 26 (13.7%)
$10,500-10,999 - 15 (7.9%)
$11,000-$11,499 - 14 (7.4%)
$11,500-$12,000 - 17 (8.9%)
>$12,000 - 59 (31.1%)
>$20,000 - 15 (7.9%)
Total Voters: 190

Pages: « 1 ... 6248 6249 6250 6251 6252 6253 6254 6255 6256 6257 6258 6259 6260 6261 6262 6263 6264 6265 6266 6267 6268 6269 6270 6271 6272 6273 6274 6275 6276 6277 6278 6279 6280 6281 6282 6283 6284 6285 6286 6287 6288 6289 6290 6291 6292 6293 6294 6295 6296 6297 [6298] 6299 6300 6301 6302 6303 6304 6305 6306 6307 6308 6309 6310 6311 6312 6313 6314 6315 6316 6317 6318 6319 6320 6321 6322 6323 6324 6325 6326 6327 6328 6329 6330 6331 6332 6333 6334 6335 6336 6337 6338 6339 6340 6341 6342 6343 6344 6345 6346 6347 6348 ... 24399 »
  Reply  |  Watch  |  Notify  |  Mark unread  |  Print  
Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21253839 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (68 posts by 16 users deleted.)
Cassius
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1652
Merit: 1029


View Profile WWW Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
May 06, 2014, 08:29:53 PM

To clarify, your models suggest that:
1) BTC will bottom out in the period you have suggested (shortly after the China deadline, as it happens)
2) The US stock market is due for a downturn later this year (pointing to an economic downturn a few months later?)
3) Therefore Bitcoin 'outperforming' in this context could mean no growth at all, while the stock markets dip

What are your models' track records?

Correct.  The broad market model gives me roughly an 12% edge on directional r2k futures positions over 1 month.  The BTC model is not mature enough to measure accurately.  The more parameters in your model, the more data you need to avoid overfit.  BTC doesn't have enough history to provide useful quality metrics on a scale more than a few hours, for models of this complexity.  I've tried to use some tricks to avoid overfit, but I can't yet quantify my success or failure in that regard, for the current model, with a usable p value.

Thanks. So another way of putting this might be:
"Not sure about bitcoin. By the way, recession in 12 months."