smartcomet
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April 03, 2018, 04:07:36 AM

An interesting take on bitcoin (it could have been posted here, but it is a first time I have seen it):

https://s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/john-pfeffer/An+Investor%27s+Take+on+Cryptoassets+v6.pdf

Major points:

1. $4.4-9.9 tril final value for the store of value use, but could rapidly (months) increase to $1.5 tril (which is about $112K or $86k fully diluted). My opinion: he wrote it when btc was at 15-17K, so run up in months to $1.5 tril would be postponed, most likely.

2. An interesting comparison with AMZN, which was $107 in 2000 but was $1600 recently. In between AMZN declined to $5-6.
The author says that if you calculate by dec 2017 AMZN price, it increased "only" by 14% yearly between buying during internet "bubble" peak and Dec 2017. I recalculated to the recent AMZN peak of $1600 and it is rather 16.5% yearly.
However, if you count from 2001 AMZN low of  5.76, you'll get 39.5% yearly return from 2001-2018.
Well , 39.5 is much better than 14-16.5%, but even 16.5% is OK.

I guess my point is that those who bought at $17-20K would be similar to investors who bought AMZN at around $100 in 2000 and those who bought either earlier (up to btc $1000) or later (at the bottom whenever it comes) would be in a similar situation to AMZN buyers at either IPO or in 2001. They would just have to wait maybe a decade or so. The upper target in the article is 260-800K/btc.
Year           US Debt Ceiling (trillion of dollars)
1985    1.95
2018         21

Increase ~600B debt per year
annual global gold production is 3000 tonnes , that is ~130B.
US dollar and gold increase total 730B to international Solvency.

Will BTC replace these dollars by add 600B marketcap every year in the near future( next next halving 2024)?