bassclef
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March 16, 2015, 07:56:38 PM



It's possible though margin cascades are hard to predict. There might not be enough selling to even get us sub $280 at this point, though we might go there again due to low volume in general. When the market leaders are bullish and want to go up, watch them shake out the market downward as many times as it takes to clean out enough supply to do it while supporting certain price levels. They have both the bankroll and patience and it is a profitable thing to do.

Those longs who are well capitalized would need sub $200 to get margin called, and that price is close to bear delusion at this point. I expect they would hold through, just as some of the well funded shorts are doing who allowed themselves to be trapped during capitulation. I expect they, on the other hand, are getting mighty nervous as their danger zone is in the $300s. Some of the bearish activity you see is likely groups of them protecting their positions--I saw this activity all the way up from the bottom--seems to work well enough until a whale with a pump bot comes along and decides to annihilate them.

Holding a long at this sort of interest rate through a ~25% decline is stupid and a terrible way to trade though. Its not so much a margin call cascade as a stop loss cascade that could be seen. If people are trading without stop losses then god help them!

I've done it. Had a losing trade that ended up over 20% in the green because I held through. Not optimal, but it worked out. I'm a position trader so I'm holding onto trades for weeks and the cost of the loan is a very small percentage of my overall profits.

I don't trade with stop losses. Whales actively gun for them, so why give them the bait?