rpietila
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December 14, 2013, 02:29:50 AM

So despite all of your talk about how bitcoin is overbought and will go down 50%... you believe the chances of it dropping in half are less than 50%...

Just one more time - ALL "my" financial transactions are hedged so no matter what contract I enter into, it does not change my net position from where I want it to be. The intent of "bets" is to find +EV deals and have fun (my offers have been really good for Goat, but his was -EV for me). This allows me to bet with huge amounts, because it is all calculated and hedged.

Once I made 2 bets both ending in the same date, one was for "bitcoin hits $1,000 before DATE" and the other was "bitcoin does not hit $5,000 before DATE". I already won one, and will probably win the other also. In any case, I could not lose by having these 2 bets but I could win them both.