Newbie1022
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August 31, 2014, 08:00:05 AM



1. Winklevoss will be shot down... agreed. But I am saying that as a former law student. All of the "analysts" say that it will go through and so that conventional wisdom should be used as the current peg especially given the ability to just use tight stop losses.

"former law student" is supposed to bring some expertise?   Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy


WE do NOT really have any strong or credible evidence that Winklevoss will be shot down...   I thought that the weight of the persuasive evidence (upon the preponderance of the law talk) was that Winklevoss would go through?





2. GABI is partially priced in and will not be the boon we wished it was. That said, it should feature some upside in buy activity, even if the purchases are off the market, because the coins accumulated would have otherwise been dumped on the exchanges. Thus, this brings upward pressure.

Gabi is NOT priced in b/c the purchase of BTC is an ongoing activity, and we do NOT know when they will be buying their 200k BTC.. or if they have already bought them... I agree if they have already bought a large majority of the 200K BTC, then probably GABI is priced in.




3. Dubai is another market... it's a good thing... not a huge thing. Dubai and re-expanding into Japan might help patch the issue of new users temporarily, but coins are being mined a lot quicker than newbies come in and so many get burnt early and develop an aversion. Thus, we have a problem of an only marginally expanding base coming in the next year.

4. OpenBazaar is both an Ebay and a Silk Road. The founders of it won't say that because they aren't trying to incur legal liability and are trying to play the role of decentralized middle men. But, it is a dark market... that's what happens in dark markets. That may breathe some life into this whole gambit for a little longer.

In a nutshell... we should be higher at this specific moment in time. As far as a few months from now... that could be a disaster. A few years from now... a total f---ing disaster.


I agree with you general sentiment that there is going to be upward pressures on the acquisition and accumulation of BTC, and accordingly upward pressure on price in the short term.  On the other hand, I do NOT understand how you could thereafter conclude that further down the road there is doom and gloom.  In fact further down the road, there should be increased upward pressure on attempting to acquire and to accumulate BTC and therefore upward pressure on BTC prices, which I would NOT characterize as anything approaching "disaster."







On the Winklevi... we have a few talking heads who have said their opinion and thrown in words like "the preponderance of the law." SEC provides much less latitude when an investment is not limited to sophisticated, wealthy, or experienced investors. See Purina case. The ETF will be limited in large part to such investors, but these activities will touch on the investments of less sophisticated investors. I could go into a multitude of cases, but it would just be attacked by FUD. So, let me just say that Securities Regulation was my best and favorite class, my prof was the former SEC enforcement head, and I just don't see the s--- happening. I may very well be wrong. I figure that's what stop-losses are for.

All the rest... cool.

In the long-term, people get burnt or change their mind. There is also a much more pervasive screwing of traders now that Wall Street has entered the game. Finally, the deals being attached through the mainstream, uber-regulated, above board side of the market are just f---ing lame. 10% off on Dell products? Really? I could do better than that without even trying on Amazon and heaven forbid I did try I could probably get 50% off sticker on Dell products. So, really, I don't see that working out too hot. You can count all the wallets you want or use the word adoption in every sentence, but lame is lame.

For the average, everyday user Bitcoin just becomes a tax hassle with at least a feeling of less security (although I don't really think that is all that true at all) where the value of your funds are ever in the hands of a non-politically accountable Junta of insiders (like with the U.S. dollar, but to a higher degree because Wall Street is historically filled with scumbags) and your balance could be effectively zeroed out upon implementation of bans the next time a terrorist acts a fool or the government starts to worry it might replace state backed currencies. Also, knowing all of those hassles, or even suspecting them, it takes a truly virtuous soul to give it a chance (and they'll end up being f---ed over by one of these bucket shop exchanges). So yes, I said f---ing disaster because, frankly, this s--- is going to be worth $5 comes 2020, and maybe even sooner, unless we turn back towards the dark markets.

Which is why OpenBazaar, to me, is really tremendous news.