oda.krell
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June 23, 2014, 11:58:52 AM

I know nobody likes to hear this, but looking at the daily and 3 day MACDs slowly moving into a position that counters each other, I can see us in an uneasy balance between 500 and 700 for another month, maybe two :/

I agree, some known Bitcoiners are investing in other  projects (Bitcoin unrelated), I was also discussing the price with a friend of mine and he said he doesn't think that a new rally will be that easy or that quick after the MT.gox fiasco... and he also said that people doesn't ever realize how MTgox will effect the future of Bitcoin regarding regulation and adoption.

We see the same thing, but draw very different conclusions then.

This is the first time in a long while that I recommend friends that asked me about it to buy in, if they had any intention to do so. In previous periods, I always considered the downside risk simply too great to make that recommendation in good conscience. Now, I'm telling them that they shouldn't expect huge rallies immediately, but I also consider the risk to the downside comparably controlled.

I used to tell people to invest at any price if they are thinking about a long term investment (couple of years) but at this point I am losing faith, and the last time a friend asked me about investing I told him that I don't know and he has to study the whole market himself, I don't want to see friends thinking how disappointing this investment was because of me.

Obviously, the "do your own research" and "all risks are your own" rule applies always. But this is a case that plays out similarly for many of us, I presume: someone who's not yet into Bitcoin asks someone who's balls deep into it for advice.

And I'm a lot more comfortable with them being slightly unsatisfied because their investment didn't take off immediately, than if they followed my recommendation and would sit on a substantially underwater position for half a year.

And, like I said, I see a lot less potential for the latter to happen than at any other point in 2014.