JayJuanGee
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How much alt coin diversification is needed? 0%?


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September 18, 2018, 04:54:31 AM

I just pulled the trigger and bought another $1000 from $6500.  Grin

It was a risky decision if you think for short term but since I am here till 2021 It doesn't matter much...


In the long run it doesn't matter much. People were trying to buy the bottom in 2015, but it didn't make much difference if you bought in at $150, or $200, or $250. By 2021 the price could be hundreds of thousands of dollars, and $6500 coins will be a distant memory.

Actually, in 2014, when the price was fluctuating between $400 and $700, I recall some members crying about coins that they bought in the $700 range or even higher, and other members asserting that in the longer run, all of those coins are going to be profitable - which ended up being the case by late 2016 - and all of those coins became very profitable by mid-2017 without really returning to being unprofitable.

In the end, if we keep buying bitcoin and engaging in a kind of hybrid dollar cost average that also attempts to buy on dips, we are likely to profit handsomely, even if we make a few mistakes here and there.  The most profitable were the ones who took some kind of stake in bitcoin and stuck with accumulating, rather than waiting on the sidelines for the price to drop - which seemed to neither come when you wanted it and price drops do not tend to inspire confidence for a lot of folks, even when attempting to HODL and ACCUMULATL through it  

So even when the folks who sold in the $1k to $3k arena may have felt profitable, at this time it still seems questionable whether they are going to be able to get back into bitcoin anywhere near their selling price and they also missed a lot of opportunity to sell some or all of their BTC at much higher prices.  By the way, if you are investing in BTC long term, rather than short term, then you should not be cashing out all of your BTC, even if the price goes shooting up, even though it might well be prudent to shave some of the profits off on the way up by selling reasonable portions of your stash that allows you to still have some, in the event that the price keeps going up beyond your expectations, which seems to be about 3x to 5x of greater than expected returns (on paper) of what happened in December 2017.

with the world the way it is (Trump Admin and I expect a doozy of a Recession as a result of the 1/2 Trillion Dollar Permanent tax cuts to the wealthy in the USA) I am following this plan. I retired in Jan when BTC and ALTS were high (duh) thus the goal is to last until I'm 65 at worst or 66 at best (full retirement age w/soc sec) with my crypto assets. With all the drama I finally just took all my assets traditional and crypto and cut them in HALF for returns etc for retirement use until 66 years. My worse case guess say.

I do something very similar to that, which is projecting negative scenarios that are pretty extreme (but still within the realm of reasonably possible), and then establishing my budget around such negative case scenarios, so if the scenario turns out better than my projection, then I have icing on my cake of profits.... which usually ends up being the case... but it seems better to prepare for the more negative scenarios both financially and psychologically.



Thus working with the disabled in my lifetime of work I had the buying power of my working life of about $35k say average....with 1/2 assets in crypto, as I state above shot down to 1/2 of value of today...still.. 35k buying power is still possible if needed the next 3 years till traditional investments and social security kick in (even thou have to buy my own insurance till 65 years for next 1.5 years)
and if crypto and all goes poof or even less than half value in next 2-3 years my traditional investments will cover me at 66 with soc sec etc (no debts) at you guessed it 35k

Another way to consider the matter is to half your current income or cashflow, and to be able to live off of $17,500 (and therefore the remainder value is cushion).  S

It sounds as if your overall plan is preparing you both financially and psychologically for possible and considerably negative scenarios.