billyjoeallen
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billyjoeallen
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February 23, 2015, 04:17:08 AM

If this bear market has been largely caused by Chinese miners that can do nothing with bitcoins except sell them, then it is likely to end when one of two things happen: Either they run out of stockpiled coins to sell over and above coins they are mining, or when the Chinese economy gets so bad that they realize that the killer app is to sneak out of the country with them.

Right now Bitcoins seems to be an answer in search of a problem: Most obviously capital controls in a world where capital is still largely mobile. When this situation changes, it is likely to be sudden and swift although the time frame is difficult to predict with any accuracy.

Mined coins are not that much, 3600 per day and the Chinese probably only have less than 35% share of that so thats only 1200 coins per days assuming they sell all of them every day.  

There is more belief of short traders and options sellers using leverage.

BTC3600 is not that much  Huh that's like additional $850,000 sell pressure every single day. BTC is not that liquid to easily sustain that.

But some relief will come in 18months

The most predictable factor in bitcoin price is the supply. Halving is already factored into people's calculations of future value, just as the upcoming U.S. Marshal's auction is.