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June 27, 2013, 04:50:58 PM

The only reason someone is buying on ox now is to cash out on a exchange with USD withdrawals.  That's why there's a continued spread against the non-gox exchanges.

Prices will continue to slowly decrease.  Note that it won't be a sudden crash because now that so many cash outflow conduits are cut, it's much more difficult to withdraw the cash.  On CampBX for example, dumpin 500 coins will slip the price almost $20.   ...so people will be unloading slowly.

There's no upside here.  Adoption of BTC is well below the hype, and the public mindset, post-crash, that it's more like a pyramid scheme than a currency.

The underlying demand for btc purchases can be sustained by a price of under $10 (especially now with all the capital controls).   ...but think about that for a moment.   A loss of over 90% of the current price over the next few months will have a deleterious impact on the cash flows with various exchanges, which could cause some significant turbulence even at the bottom.  Some exchanges / services allow for margin / leverage.  Those exchanges may not be able to tolerate wild price swings and may end up insolvent overnight.

...so all in all, it's going to be a turbulent time.  Make sure to only play with money you don't mind losing.

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