mmitech
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things you own end up owning you


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January 06, 2014, 08:50:31 PM

I think TA should be used with real caution now, since the fundamentals have improved and we have a lot of bigger players entering. Just some advice for the people who focus mainly on TA.

I don't know, really. What else do you have, other than TA?

I mean, fundamentals are subject to interpretation as well. There is no "objective" way to look at news/fundamentals... the market reaction to the Silk Road bust is a perfect example for that.

My point is, TA is just as useful or not useful as it always is.

Perhaps what you have in mind is better phrased as: "don't cling to *outdated* assumptions from TA".

I remember one of the mantras being repeated after the April peak/crash was that "price has to deflate back all the way" (which was either ~15 USD = price at beginning of the rally or ~30 USD = previous ATH). In reality, final capitulation was at ~60 USD, off by a factor of 2.

* * *

The current situation still fits into my own expectations... we went up pretty nicely over the last weeks, and with some extra force in the last few days, and I still consider it a real possibility that we're seeing an early end to the post-December peak bear market. On the other hand, we have what could be a (spread out) double top at 1070/1090, and there's also a real chance we're still going to go down much further.

I'm not tempted to re-adjust my position quite yet. If we go through 890-900 (mtgox) *with force*, and close below it, I'm starting to get worried. Well, not really, but I would consider the "continued bear market" scenario more likely again.


 your inputs are one of a few valuable to me at this thread, you make them logical and based on many factors (TA, the sentiment of the market, and news) when all combined they make sense, even when sometimes I don't totally agree with you but I always consider and respect the approach.   Smiley