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Then we both agreed that if it's literally just miners vs. users then miners stand no chance.
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I agree that if CartelCoin is rejected by practically all users (including new future ones who would buy their first bitcoins after the fork), then it will be worthless. Of course. If the whole world reject gold and prefers copper, then gold will be worthless and copper will get gold's market cap.
What I don't agree, at all, is that such situation will occur automatically if the Cartel tries to push for a change, and the Core devs then post an update that renders all ASICs useless. No, I do not believe that the vast majority of the users will automatically follow the devs and reject the Cartel.
It would have to be a really stupid change to cause such total rejection (like, say, confiscate all existing bitcoins and give them to the Cartel). Obviously the cartel will not push for such changes. The change that I gave as an example -- postpone the next halving by 2 years, then speed up the following ones -- is the sort of thing that they could try. Or they could simply set a minimu fee of 0.20 USD/tx + 0.5% of the output value (they would not even have to do a fork for that).
My point is that most users and businesses will not consider such a change reason enough to dump or forget their CartelCoins and switch to RebelCoin. CartelCoin differs from the old Bitcoin by a minor invisible change; RebelCoin is drastic change, that includes loss of the mining infrastructure. Try explaining to the press and Wall Street that RebelCoin, not CartelCoin, is the true bitcoin.
For one thing, the miners obviously wil not switch to RebelCoin, and will do whatever they can to kill it. The Swedish ETN, fed by KnC, will not switch; the Chinese exchanges, who own the largest miners, will not switch (but may let their clients dump or withdraw the RebelCoins, crashing their price in China). Those already are enough to support a nonzero value to the CartelCoin. So, at best, only part of the bitcoin user and business base will see RebelCoin as the true and only bitcoin.
This belief of mine is not based on science or math, but just on my experience of how people react to such situations. If you don't see that, I don't know how I could convince you.
What I don't agree, at all, is that such situation will occur automatically if the Cartel tries to push for a change, and the Core devs then post an update that renders all ASICs useless. No, I do not believe that the vast majority of the users will automatically follow the devs and reject the Cartel.
It would have to be a really stupid change to cause such total rejection (like, say, confiscate all existing bitcoins and give them to the Cartel). Obviously the cartel will not push for such changes. The change that I gave as an example -- postpone the next halving by 2 years, then speed up the following ones -- is the sort of thing that they could try. Or they could simply set a minimu fee of 0.20 USD/tx + 0.5% of the output value (they would not even have to do a fork for that).
My point is that most users and businesses will not consider such a change reason enough to dump or forget their CartelCoins and switch to RebelCoin. CartelCoin differs from the old Bitcoin by a minor invisible change; RebelCoin is drastic change, that includes loss of the mining infrastructure. Try explaining to the press and Wall Street that RebelCoin, not CartelCoin, is the true bitcoin.
For one thing, the miners obviously wil not switch to RebelCoin, and will do whatever they can to kill it. The Swedish ETN, fed by KnC, will not switch; the Chinese exchanges, who own the largest miners, will not switch (but may let their clients dump or withdraw the RebelCoins, crashing their price in China). Those already are enough to support a nonzero value to the CartelCoin. So, at best, only part of the bitcoin user and business base will see RebelCoin as the true and only bitcoin.
This belief of mine is not based on science or math, but just on my experience of how people react to such situations. If you don't see that, I don't know how I could convince you.
It's puff, puff, pass stolfi.
