surix
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October 03, 2017, 04:37:13 PM

My prediction for segwit 2x:
- In coming days exchanges and miners will start to show their "final position"; for sure some of them will leave NYA, but majority will remain in NYA;
- Major exchange will support both coins, for the safety of their customer's fund;
- Hardfork will happen as there is major miner support;
- The duel will then start:
          - In the beginning, the original chain will keep the name BTC; the challenger (segwit 2x) will have another name;
          - exchange will halt transaction for a period of time, so the opening price can be a big surprise to everyone;
          - Segwit 2x side with large amount of hash rate and low fees, but not yet a lot of nodes nor infrastructure support; number of transaction is low; But miners are all well funded and determined, so they insist on mining even at loss;
          - Split will happen @block 494784, difficulty adjustment @493920, so 864 blocks to go, which is roughly 6 days. If core coin lose 90% of hash power, it will last 60 days;
          - Core chain is practically not usable, expect core team find a magical soft fork solution, otherwise it will take one and half hour for one confirmation;
          - Core coin's fee will skyrocket because everyone wants to get their transaction in next block;
          - All commerce will have to start to implement support for alt coins and/or segwit 2x coins, otherwise they will not receive payment in time;
          - Exchanges resume the transaction, core coin price goes down;

- Commerce will be forced to start to support segwit 2x coin;
- After some time, core coin will die and BTC name will be given to 2x coin;
- Developers will go either to alt coin or btc1;
- After 60 days, core chain will have the difficulty adjustment (to 10%), miner's profitability change (if the core coin price is not yet 10% of original price), they come back for some quick profit, dump core coins till price re-balance, leave and go back to segwit 2x.

Sad ending.

Strategy: HODL, as usual. I would not recommend to diversify the portfolio too much though...