So far a rise to about 12K has materialized which is pretty close and there could still be another leg up. Afterwards, a slow grind like 2011, 2014. 3K would be a good final bottom for the bear market if things were to remain bullish for another ATH at the next halvening. I'm not at all sure about the long game though.

Is this a short at any point? What if the following apply:
-Other better short term trading opportunities do not exist
-No counter-party risk
The risk in this trade is that crypto winter is somehow avoided, this would take:
-Massively bullish news events.
-A fourth wave of speculation.
Both of these are long shots. Most governments are opposed to bitcoin, the ones that are not naturally move slowly and cautiously through bureaucratic institutions. Technical developments in BTC are limited and only have a small impact on its real use case (speculation). Smart money isn't loading into something that is crashing from a 10,000% run-up. The pool of dumb retail money is finite, you can go from 1% >10% of the population knowing about something. Going from 50%>80% is orders of magnitude more difficult.