Poll
Question: Closing BTC Price June 28:
$0 - 5 (2.6%)
<$7,000 - 4 (2.1%)
$7,000-$7,499 - 0 (0%)
$7,500-$7,999 - 0 (0%)
$8,000-$8,499 - 1 (0.5%)
$8,500-$8,999 - 3 (1.6%)
$9,000-$9,499 - 4 (2.1%)
$9,500-$9,999 - 27 (14.2%)
$10,000-$10,499 - 26 (13.7%)
$10,500-10,999 - 15 (7.9%)
$11,000-$11,499 - 14 (7.4%)
$11,500-$12,000 - 17 (8.9%)
>$12,000 - 59 (31.1%)
>$20,000 - 15 (7.9%)
Total Voters: 190

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21253533 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (68 posts by 16 users deleted.)
Erdogan
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December 30, 2013, 12:48:09 AM

A log trend line (more precisely: linear regression on log charted price history) is a nice little tool to get a feeling for where we are at any point in time compared to the historic trend, and where we're going to be, very very roughly, in a few months or a year from now.
I don't think Bitcoin's long term trendline is going to be straight on a log graph - I think it's going to trace an S curve graphed in log space.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#igDailyzczsg2011-11-01zeg2013-12-30ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zl

Throw away the data from before November '11, while the exchanges were trying to figure out how to operate, and what do you see?

I know, I know Smiley I participated in the previous discussion of that idea. Didn't we conclude that the well known S shaped "tech adoption" curve would still be a straight line when mapped to log. Why does BTC deserve a "super S", if I may ask?

I don't exactly know what super S means, but anyway, bitcoin adoption is both about the network effect, or each user spawns 2 new users after a unit of time, plus the fact that each user seeks to expand his bitcoin hoard as he understands or gains trust in bitcoin as a store of value. In serious questions like this, understanding and logic is not enough, your feelings and intuision have to be on board also. Hence, the price function could increase at a higher rate than number of users. Impossible to be certain, also after the fact.