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November 05, 2014, 08:51:30 PM

@Blitz: I'll admit, you've been around much longer than me, so my impressions of the early days of BTC trading are pretty vague. Could be that you're right about the percentages being (roughly) the same.

I will say that much: the almost linear, nearly uninterrupted decline from the $32 peak to the $2 double bottom in 2011 looks almost comical by today's standards. Not a single big mean reversion trade. My point is: looking at the 2011 decline from $32, I simply can't imagine there was any substantial capital in the hands of what you'd call 'traders', otherwise there would have been the occasional pause when a major resistance was being hit and traders, on average, closed a short to see where price is heading.

It was even more comical when it reached negative numbers (i remember seeing negative values back then but i cant find any picture right now) on mtgox back then and people who panicked and sold for almost zero wanted to reset all trades of the day.