JorgeStolfi
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April 16, 2014, 12:41:08 AM

Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Wednesday April 16

Prediction valid for: Wednesday 2014-04-16, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 3345 CNY
Bitstamp's predicted price: 529 USD

(NOTE: This is the Method's prediction, not my prediction.)





Plot legend

Today's data point was only passable (S = 0.0049, W = 0.619).  Anyway, with two points, we can try a straight-line trend, namely A + B*(d-d0), where d-d0 is the number of days since Apr/14, A = 2919, B = 213.

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which was assumed to be 6.32 CNY/USD. It was 6.32, 6.38, 6.21, 6.24 at the last four Slumber Times.
 
Checking the previous prediction

Prediction was posted on: Tuesday 2014-04-15, 23:11 UTC
Prediction was valid for: Tuesday 2014-04-15, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~13 hours later)

Foiled again by the devious Chinese:

Huobi's predicted price: 2919 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 3132 CNY
Error: 213 CNY (~34 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 469 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 495 USD
Error: 26 USD
 
NOTE:
  "Si sa che la gente dà buoni consigli,     
  sentendosi come Gesù nel tempio,   
  si sa che la gente dà buoni consigli,       
  se non può più dare cattivo esempio."
    --Fabrizio De Andrè, Bocca di Rosa