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Antifragile


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July 04, 2013, 07:17:00 PM

I don't see a trend reversal, not even short term. Only the most fine-grained of the indicators I look at saw a swing in the other direction, everything else indicates we're going down further, or are at least not about to go up rapidly, within the next 24h.

I am however mildly nervous because my gut feeling tells me that recent news (Bitcoin ETF, mtgox press release re: wire transfers) are comparably positive, and we've reached a price level that, say, 4 weeks ago would have had people salivating. In other words, I don't trust this downtrend.

The ETF may or may not happen. They filed the paperwork. It will be months before we know. It could help add exposure to BTC though and that is great. In and of itself it is not much.

The MtGox release is NOT good news. They are essentially saying "We almost got our problem resolved. Things will still be slow for a while until we catch up." It is not good news to just function as expected.
Good news will be in a few weeks when they have the new trade engine. But LTC is being released around then (perhaps) so we'll see the effect.

Not to be a downer but just calling it like it is.