JayJuanGee
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How much alt coin diversification is needed? 0%?


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July 08, 2015, 08:30:55 AM



I think we are over focusing on the current price - we know at the top most of it is speculation but if you look at the bottom the story is still very bullish if you are slowly buying a little regularly at the daily price.

below are 2 charts. they track the lowest price in a year from 2012.

the first assumes the $177 2015 bottom will prove to be a genuine bottom.
the second that if big whales has not intervened it would have gone to $60.

I have made factors that are not very mathematically good but work crudely enough to be useful for me.

they show that
1. if $60 was the bottom and I buy now at $270 the bottom in 2017 will still be higher (at $360) and even in 2016 the bottom will still be quite good (at $146).

2. if $177 was the true bottom then buying now at $270 the bottom may be way higher (at $626) in one year (2016)

I see those numbers as very bullish compared to other things people can invest in (shares etc) as well as supporting the idea of bitcoin.


Year   Expected Lowest price   Factor   Actual   Minus is underestimation
2012   $4      $4   
2013   $14   3.537   $13   8.83%
2014   $50   3.537   $302   -83.43%
2015   $177   3.537   $177   0.00%
2016   $626   3.537      
2017   $2,214         

Year   Expected Lowest price   Factor   Actual   Minus is Underestimation
2012   $4      $4   
2013   $10   2.46   $13   -24.31%
2014   $24   2.46   $302   -91.98%
2015   $60   2.46   $60   -0.75%
2016   $146   2.46      
2017   $360   2.46      


I've been buying bitcoins regularly and on an ongoing basis, but my average buyin price is still near $500... hahahhaha... gonna take a while before I am in the black... I like the idea of $600 coins in 2016 or $2,200 coins in 2017, but the idea of $360 coins in 2017 would NOT be so helpful. to my psychology... but I suppose, even that reflects btc prices continuing to increase in value from today's price.