-snip-
All of this extra activity related to the Mavrodi pyramid is likely to increase the number of xactions on the network. If this leads to a backlog, no fee xactions will probably never get confirmed and fees will go up for anyone who needs their bitcoin transferred in a timely manner, possibly up substantially.
The power of exponential growth can be truly awesome. possibly faster. A ponzi scheme needs an ever-expanding pool of suckers to continue. A collapse is inevitable regardless of the block size outcome. This pump can last for a long time, but if the goddamn blocksize cap isn't raised (or preferably eliminated entirely), it's going to collapse when the network crashes which may be even before Mavrodi runs out of suckers.
Leveraged shorts are going up substantially on BFX, as well as longs. If I had to guess, there will be a short squeeze before a long squeeze. Liquidity providers have been caught unprepared for the short term demand of the ponzi. It cannot last but can go on for months. When this thing unwinds, we may find ourselves in a new Nash equilibrium below $200. The fallout will damage Bitcoin possibly even worse than Gox. Expect more bans and heavier regulation.
All of this extra activity related to the Mavrodi pyramid is likely to increase the number of xactions on the network. If this leads to a backlog, no fee xactions will probably never get confirmed and fees will go up for anyone who needs their bitcoin transferred in a timely manner, possibly up substantially.
The power of exponential growth can be truly awesome. possibly faster. A ponzi scheme needs an ever-expanding pool of suckers to continue. A collapse is inevitable regardless of the block size outcome. This pump can last for a long time, but if the goddamn blocksize cap isn't raised (or preferably eliminated entirely), it's going to collapse when the network crashes which may be even before Mavrodi runs out of suckers.
Leveraged shorts are going up substantially on BFX, as well as longs. If I had to guess, there will be a short squeeze before a long squeeze. Liquidity providers have been caught unprepared for the short term demand of the ponzi. It cannot last but can go on for months. When this thing unwinds, we may find ourselves in a new Nash equilibrium below $200. The fallout will damage Bitcoin possibly even worse than Gox. Expect more bans and heavier regulation.
Do you really think MMM victims in china would throw this much money at the exchanges? Is Mr. Mavrodi hodling the coins vs liquidating them as they come in? As they are basically tx's transferring between the off chain chinese exchanges to the off chain MMM database... do you really see an explosion in tx growth?... (not seeing it here https://tradeblock.com/bitcoin/)
Listen, I agree that increasing the max_block_size is getting critical, and we likely couldn't handle the volumes of a repeat of 2013... I'm just trying to avoid getting hyperbolic on both of these issues. Perhaps that's a mistake... but I'm awaiting more evidence.