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Their trapped clients seem to think that Y, the amount of real BTC that MtGOX currently owns, is about 1/3 of X-6000. Although that perception may change rapidly on faint echos of rumors.
This is ridiculous. How would Gox have only 1/3 of their obligations? Did 2/3 of the total Bitcoins on the exchange get stolen?
Keep in mind, this is a profitable exchange. It seems silly to suggest, without a large-scale theft or other compelling event, that they are so badly insolvent. There were some asset seizures in the past, but that comes nowhere near 2/3 of their deposits - in fact I am fairly certain those few millions have long since been made up by trading fees.
Further: If Gox had been stolen from so dramatically, wouldn't the evidence be in the blockchain? I'm sure someone would have noticed a huge spike in withdrawals.
Er, that 2/3 (now more like 1/2) is not my estimate, it is what their clients apparently believe, given the price that they agreed at MtGOX.
That's not a reasonable conclusion, for four reasons (assuming Gox is insolvent):
1) There is always a discount on debt, even if the ability to repay is certain. Otherwise T-bills would have nearly 0 yield. People do not like the idea that they may not see their money for months - even years, if they go bankrupt.
2) There is the expectation that a court may give preference to fiat debt in bankruptcy proceedings, and so BTC would be a junior debt class.
3) If the receiver liquidates Gox's BTC holdings to fiat, and BTC/USD increases during the bankruptcy proceedings, Gox could become more insolvent.
4) Fear is running this market.