ElectricMucus
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January 02, 2014, 09:23:50 AM

I doubt we're gonna see a 50k coin dump ever again.

The market has matured. People with that amount of coins know they can get easily get a better OTC deal these days.
I'm just assuming here, but I am assuming that order sizes above a certain threshold are approximately exponentially distributed.  We've seen 4k dumped more than once in the past day or two.  I think we're going to see a 50k dump (without doing the math here, which is notionally trivial, but I can't be bothered to do it ATM) certainly within the month, feasibly any day. 

I agree with Voodah that the market has matured and that 50k dumps are much less probably, but I also agree with aminorex that they are still certainly possible and that we should in fact expect one eventually.  It takes a fairly sophisticated individual to arrange a OTC deal with a Wall Street hedge fund or Chinese tycoon.  There *must* still be early miners, maybe 23 years old, completely mind-blown by the fact that they have $80,000,000 in bitcoins.  Eventually one of them just says, "I'm getting the fuck out of Dodge" and does something stupid. 


A friendly reminder about how reality looks like:
http://buttcoin.org/easy-like-sunday-morning