Odalv
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December 22, 2013, 09:23:25 PM

If you think it goes below 300, I am willing to bet Smiley

I have no idea where the price is going but I fondly remember the time when you predicted the price would never go below $100 again. That was about 24 hours before the price dived below $100 on heavy volume.

Predicting the markets is making educated guesses about the probabilities of things happening. It becomes successful investing if you spot the +EV deals and act on them (and your skill is good enough to estimate the probabilities).

When I predicted no going below 100, my skill was not as good as now. I would have bet, and lost. (And I also lost by going 100% all-in before the dip). Now I am saying no going below 300. If it goes below, I lose the possible bet + I lose because my bids were too high. It does not mean that I find it unthinkable to go there. If I bet 2:1 for example, it means that I think the probability is anything less than 33%.

This was also the beef last spring, and many people have been ridiculing me for trying to (unsuccessfully) give them juicy odds for bets that I would have lost. Now I think it is bad behavior - just "no thanks" should be enough.

In the last dip I went 100% all in at $421, because that was my assessment of the lowest realistic price in Bitstamp that day after the previous close of 675. I lost, because it went to $382. Well, many lost much more by being even worse in predicting Wink
Your 20 BTC ?