I would really like to see a day with like 500,000 volume on mtgox to give me confidence that a bottom is in. I've been watching all the exchanges and all of the action has been weaksauce - no evidence of any kind real capitulation , plus they're still following BT China which is a sinking ship.
Maybe there won't be any real capitulation. Yes we are unhappy and scared about China, but is bitcoin dead? Has development stopped? Are financial circles calling bitcoin the investment of 2014?
It sucks, but this is more like uncertainty because we don't know what China is up to, not because bitcoin is dead. The Chinese are probably rapidly trying to decide what to do with their bitcoin, but do they believe it's dead? It doesn't seem like it. They got into it because it was a world wide thing and the early adopters there see it's long term potential. We always knew they would need to be galvanised by fire with some mega crash. We had it: twice in 2011 and last April. We always came back stronger, faster and faster. In 2011 we sold till the bottom. In April we sold to ~$50 with reports of Bitcoins death from left and right. Now we have fallen by what- 50%? 2011 was from $32 to pennies. April was ~260 to ~50. So far it's been ~$1200 to ~550? We are crashing less and less severe. And bitcoin is only getting more press, more coverage. In some ways it took China making a stance on bitcoin for other governments to make a stance. Sure it's not exactly what we wanted, but we've gotten something priceless instead: the worlds attention.
agree 100 %