Bitcoin - I closed my long prematurely yesterday, but i will not short, even if its topping out; I'll just wait with buy orders lower.
I don't think there is a very reliable way to predict it, and history doesn't always repeat itself. However Elwar says that in 2013 the price doubling in a week, or half a week was what preceded a crash.
In 2013 it went like this.
First bubble:
Double in a month
Double in 2 weeks
Double in 1 week
Double in half a week
Up a bit then crash
Second bubble:
Double in a month
Double in 2 weeks
Double in 1 week
Up a bit then crash
Recently we doubled in a month (1250 to 2500) but then it flattened out. That's a good thing.
measuring parabolic growth development in time can work, but there will still be uncertainty, as its never exactly same situation as in the past. In 2013 it went like this.
First bubble:
Double in a month
Double in 2 weeks
Double in 1 week
Double in half a week
Up a bit then crash
Second bubble:
Double in a month
Double in 2 weeks
Double in 1 week
Up a bit then crash
Recently we doubled in a month (1250 to 2500) but then it flattened out. That's a good thing.
Good for targeting closing of long positions, but going short based on this would still feel like attempting to catch running train (got burned shorting eth around 220... :p)