JayJuanGee
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1932
Merit: 1825


How much alt coin diversification is needed? 0%?


View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
November 01, 2016, 11:57:33 AM


...chinese trade volume because it is problematic, both in terms of its fakeness (as well as no fees and bots, too)

Ok, but you'd have to go a long way to convince me that the fake element is in any way dominant. All markets contain a degree of synthesised volume for one reason or another. The question is, can one player with limited budget dominate the character of the market over the other 100,000 ?

Thats why I don't hold much store by these kind of rumours. They're just a myth that grows legs on places like bitcointalk and for which nobody ever bothers to try to quantify.

You can see a distinct trend on very long range chart. The problem with faking the volume on any significant scale is that you also need to fake the price since one is a product of the other and these are genuine trades (unless the actual statistics are fakes which of course would be a different matter).

Ok, we are back over 5000 CNY. The 5180 SRB ignition level is in sight.


We kind of already had this debate, and fine, you put more weight in the chinese volume than I do.  I am not saying to completely discard such volume, even though there has been some admissions that some of it is fake and we also know that there are a lot of bots in place, as well, based on no fee trading.  Furthermore, when there is that much volume and admissions of fakeness, we also have to consider that there may be some fractional reserves going on there, too. 

Sure, some of it may be true and some of it may lead, but there are likely better ways to analyze without putting so much weight and emphasis on the chinese.

I have no xenophobia or even fears of chinese, it is just that we need to consider the matter for what it is rather than putting too much reliance upon some things that could be not based in reality and real dynamics.


Also, this is a BTC/USD thread for a reason because the emphasis and reference point should be BTC/USD - yet I do understand that other currency pairs will also have effects on the BTC/USD pairs.. so I definitely acknowledge and recognize that cross currency influences do exist.